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Daily ramblings and choices

Thanks Chesham Chesham

Have only just watched the replay of Good Man Vinnie's victory as my stream was playing up while the race was being ran. Certainly didn't look the winner halfway into the race and hit an in running price of 28.

Need to start collating these results!
 
Winners of the 4:40 at Stratford are increasingly having more experience when tackling this race, as they have been victorious on their 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st nv hcp chase attempt. For this to continue, it would leave four in today's field, as several are attempting fences for the first time. Two of my shortlist failed to complete last time over fences and I was intending to rule them out, but Boy In A Bentley was travelling well before he unseated LTO 6 days ago. He's on the same mark now and can exploit things here. 15/2 win Labrokes - boosted to 8/1
 
BIAB pulled up. Winner was taking part in his first nv hcp chase.

Trying something slightly different with the 5:15 handicap, today. Only one of the previous 5 winners has been running on a higher mark than last run and there are only three runners on a lower mark today. Four more run from the same rating.

Let's focus on the lower mark runners:
Alexandrakollantai 74>76
Zorovan 65>67
Relight My Fire 63>65

Zorovan is the most unexposed of the trio but tackles the same distance as he did 17 days ago, whereas the more experienced Alexandrakollantai and RMF, are keeping things fresh by going back to a previous trip. Alexandrakollantai raced in a 0 - 85 lto, which is the highest in the race and she won her last race off 1lb less.

12/1 ew with bet365 - was only 8/1 with skybet
 
Wrong selection as both RMF and Zorovan placed. Alexandrakollantai was the highest price of the three when I posted, although RMF finished the higher of the three.

Back to NH, with the Hexham's 8:30. Four previous runnings as a nv hcp chase; attempt 3, 4, 3, 1 for winners anf all but one have had conditional jockeys riding. Two are taking fences for the first time and Inchcolm is having his 6th attempt at such a race. Of the remaining 3, Super Lunar has to contend with a 650+ days absence, so it becomes a toss up between Robins Legend and Mcgintys Dream. Although on the same mark, I feel that RL has more ability and if he can get round mistake free, can win this one. 11/4 skybet
 
4:25 Kelso - Four previous runnings - 2, 3, 3, 5 nv hcp chase attempt for winning runners. Can therefore cut two who attempt their first steeplechase, leaving 5. Romulus Du Donjon will be having his sixth attempt, which also rules him out. Of the remaining four runners, I feel Crest has a good chance at registering his first win over fences; it will be his third start after ws, followed possibly by Classical Milano.
 
1:55 Uttoxeter - 1, 3, 1, 1 nv hcp hurdle attempts, so focussing on those who run in their first such race results in 6. The three fto nv hcp chase winners had had previous hcp experience, which rules out one further runner and I don't feel that last time out winner Norman The Red will follow up with another win. Of my remaining runners, I do like the chances of His Dream and Scartare, who are available at decent ew prices.
 
6:30 Ffos Las - Winners of this nv hcp chase have arrived at attempt 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, although 2014 and 2015 winners did have several prior hcp chase experiences. There are 3 in today's field who are yet to attempt fences and I believe another 4 do not have sufficient jumping experience. That leaves Gone Platinum - who won here 5 days ago, Le Curieux, On Alberts Head and Welsh Designe. Gone Platinum seems the most likely winner as he just won a 0 - 120, when today is a 0 - 105. He just gets in on 107.
 
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2:20 - 1, 2, 4, 2, 3 attempts for winners of this nv hcp hurdle. Last year's winner had bundles of prior hurdling experience. Only the bottomweight has previously taken part in such a race, but there are only two in the field who the handicapper feels is worthy of a higher mark, today; Emma's Dilemma & West To Crossgates, and I feel the latter stands more a chance, at a better price. 11/2
 
Nv hcp hurdle attempt 1, 3, 1, 2, 2 for the previous 5 winners of this race, which rules none of the present runners out. Just two take part in their first such event; Snobbery and Gaelic Flow. I have a suspicion that both may land in the money but believe Gaelic Flow will finish ahead. The 7yo is piloted by Bryony Frost who's 3 wins in the last 14 days have been in nh nv hcp events.
 
2:15 Worcester: Nv hcp chase attempt 1, 1, 1, 4 for the winners of this race, who were all Irish bred. The three first attempt winners did not even previously compete in a hcp chase beforehand, although the 2015 winner did have tackle a few races over fences beforehand. Opera Buff, Valshan Time and League Of His Own are today's only runners (and Irish bred) that are yet to compete in such a race. VT appeals the most at a value price. It will be his 2nd race since wind surgery.
 
7:45 - Nv hcp chase attempt 7, 2, 1, 1, 2 for winners of this race. Last year's winner, No Such Number, was a bit of a training masterclass, who had improved by 32lbs in three races before landing this one. There's only been one runner who's won this at their first time over fences, which would remove half the field today and a further runner who is a bit overexposed for my liking. This leaves Militarian, Jassas and Everyday Everyhour, and I believe Militarian is the most capable of landing a place, but at best price 9/4 currently is not a bet. HRB have him fc at 8/1, which obviously would be something to play with.
 
Hi gents, it's been a few months but lets see if I can get back into this...

Perth 2:40 - Voided race in 2017. Previous winners were 2nd, 4th & 2nd hcp nv chase attempt. The top two highest weights have already won such a race and several others are competing over fences for the first time, leaving only Dakota Grey and Lady London on my radar. They both appeared at Perth on the same day, in different races lto, with DG putting in the better performance. I feel that DG has the ability to place in this race and is currently priced at 12/1 with most bookmakers.

Newton Abbott 5:05 - Attempt 1, 2, 2, 1, 1 for the previous five winners of this hcp nv hdl. There is a single runner in the field who has already raced twice in such races, which takes the number of possibilities down to 11. Focussing on those who are running in their first hcp nv hdl narrows the shortlist to 7 and first time hooded, Reason To Believe, could be a good thing.
 
Jamie said:
Hi gents, it's been a few months but lets see if I can get back into this...

Perth 2:40 - Voided race in 2017. Previous winners were 2nd, 4th & 2nd hcp nv chase attempt. The top two highest weights have already won such a race and several others are competing over fences for the first time, leaving only Dakota Grey and Lady London on my radar. They both appeared at Perth on the same day, in different races lto, with DG putting in the better performance. I feel that DG has the ability to place in this race and is currently priced at 12/1 with most bookmakers.

Newton Abbott 5:05 - Attempt 1, 2, 2, 1, 1 for the previous five winners of this hcp nv hdl. There is a single runner in the field who has already raced twice in such races, which takes the number of possibilities down to 11. Focussing on those who are running in their first hcp nv hdl narrows the shortlist to 7 and first time hooded, Reason To Believe, could be a good thing.
Click to expand...

Good reasoning to get the place money for DG :)
 
Been a long wait for the next eligible race and the first of two which I've scrolled to is the 5:00 at Plumpton. Winners have been taking their 1st, 3rd, 5th, 1st and 2nd hcp nv chase attempt. The possibilities can almost be cut in half if we discount the 2015 winner and focus on runners which are underexposed over fences. Five are taking fences for the first time and my hard earned will be on Ortenzia. The only filly in the race and just a 4yo. In the last two years there has only been four 4yo females run in nv hcp chases and although none have won, two have placed, so I'll take 14/1 ew with Ladbrokes for a 50% strike rate!

Ten mins before the above is the hcp nv hurdle 4:50 at Uttoxeter. 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd attempt winners suggest that a slightly more experienced runner may be needed for this one, but Mauricio, who won here 11 days ago in a plain hcp hurdle could follow up with another victory at 9/4 with a few firms (y)
 
4:50 was won by Monday Club, who was contesting his first hcp nv hurdle but had had 12 prior hurdle races.
Eric The Third won the 5:00, in his 2nd hcp nv chase.
 
Ortenzia ran on Weds and won at a cracking 11/1. My lack of preparation meant that I did not post beforehand but I had a couple of quid ew on, which was nice!

3:05 - 3, 2, 3, 1, 2 is the record for past winners of this race. There are only 5 in the race today and I'm going to make it a quick choice with Golden Vision. Three are first time chasers and Tikkinthebox has already won several nv hcp chases.
 
First time chaser, Mcgroarty, won the 3:05.

Winner record of 2, 1, 1, 1, 3 in Friday's 3:25, which has included three fto chasers. These races have been 4f shorter and novices limited handicaps, so these trends may not fit this race, which is why I intend to deviate from my usual methods and select Shaiyazar, who will be taking part in his 4th nv hcp chase. He's probably not the winner but I think 22/1 ew with betvictor for the place is very generous, considering that he was a neck away from the win in his last chase, against a 106 rated when he was off 82, in Aug. Winner of that has since won again. Has placed in 9 of 20 chase hcaps (y)
 
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Winner record of 1, 2, 3, 5, 2 in today's 2:15. The bottom four take fences for the first time and although that was the case for last years winner, i'm prepared to overlook that. Royal Plaza looks overexposed, whereas Our Three Sons began his chasing escapades this year and takes part in his 2nd nv hcp chase. 7/2 atm
 
Our Three Sons finished 5th of 6. Vivas, first time out over fences, won.

Kelso have a nv hcp chase today, at 4:55, which has had no previous runnings. Knocklayde is the only runner taking fences for the first time. Not suggesting this as a selection but will be interesting to see the outcome.
 
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