Daily ramblings and choices
- Thread starter Jamie
- Start date
walter
Gelding
One that has a couple of engagements over fri -sat.
Coologue (141) 11-06 or 10-09
entry fee`s paid ...fri £45 ...sat £250 = £295.
Other`s fri.... single entry`s = £45
Fri / novice chase donny penalty value £5,600 to the winner... 4/9 fav... regular rider available.
Sat /competitive handicap donny... needs to hit (3rd) place at least... £5,082 ....7/1 with regular rider at Kelso.
Higher rates do not look out of form on Sat with (5) currently same or shorter on the best odds column, conclusion, trainer paid to have a look on Sat with a degree of mishap insurance for Friday?
Not one I would play on personally, easy to get suckered in, just sharing a few thoughts, hope you dont mind.
Coologue (141) 11-06 or 10-09
entry fee`s paid ...fri £45 ...sat £250 = £295.
Other`s fri.... single entry`s = £45
Fri / novice chase donny penalty value £5,600 to the winner... 4/9 fav... regular rider available.
Sat /competitive handicap donny... needs to hit (3rd) place at least... £5,082 ....7/1 with regular rider at Kelso.
Higher rates do not look out of form on Sat with (5) currently same or shorter on the best odds column, conclusion, trainer paid to have a look on Sat with a degree of mishap insurance for Friday?
Not one I would play on personally, easy to get suckered in, just sharing a few thoughts, hope you dont mind.
Jamie
Colt
No, I don't mind at all
walter
Coologue has also been entered into two races at Cheltenham during the festival and has been priced up at 20/1 for the first of them, so if he does run and win convincingly at such a short price today that price will surely not be available? Could a better option be trading on the exchanges with this one?
That's even without taking Saturday into consideration! Something else to think about is that this horse is owned by New Club Partnership, which I'm assuming is a Charlie Longsdon syndicate as he is listed as the previous owner, so it's could be that quite a few people are contributing to the entry fees?
As you say, it's easy to get suckered in, so I'm also happy to sit and watch how this plays out.
Thanks for highlighting the case though! Hopefully it's something that we can build on in the future.
walter Coologue has also been entered into two races at Cheltenham during the festival and has been priced up at 20/1 for the first of them, so if he does run and win convincingly at such a short price today that price will surely not be available? Could a better option be trading on the exchanges with this one?
That's even without taking Saturday into consideration! Something else to think about is that this horse is owned by New Club Partnership, which I'm assuming is a Charlie Longsdon syndicate as he is listed as the previous owner, so it's could be that quite a few people are contributing to the entry fees?
As you say, it's easy to get suckered in, so I'm also happy to sit and watch how this plays out.
Thanks for highlighting the case though! Hopefully it's something that we can build on in the future.
Jamie
Colt
A few days rest from our four legged friends and now raring to go again, with Frank The Slink (3:15) & Bear Rails (4:10), today.
Frank The Slink interests me as he is a multiple entrant from the Micky Hammond yard, who is having a very fine time at present. The selection has pulled up the last three runs out but won at the track around this time last in 2014 (4th March) and has also finished 2nd at the track.
Bear Rails is a multiple entrant who ran 10 days ago. Colin Tizzard's record with multiple entrants during the last two month is 8 wins in 19 runs, although there is another trainer with runners in this race who also has a strong record with multiple entrants in Neil Mulholland. However, I'm using the market as a guide as Bear Rails forecast price to current price has shortened whereas Mulholland's have lengthened.
I had also picked out Hit The Lights (4:30), but upon inspecting HRB's Odds Tracker, the 6yo's current price is 11/1 has drifted from the forecast price of 4/1. Will I live to regret leaving it out?
Frank The Slink interests me as he is a multiple entrant from the Micky Hammond yard, who is having a very fine time at present. The selection has pulled up the last three runs out but won at the track around this time last in 2014 (4th March) and has also finished 2nd at the track.
Bear Rails is a multiple entrant who ran 10 days ago. Colin Tizzard's record with multiple entrants during the last two month is 8 wins in 19 runs, although there is another trainer with runners in this race who also has a strong record with multiple entrants in Neil Mulholland. However, I'm using the market as a guide as Bear Rails forecast price to current price has shortened whereas Mulholland's have lengthened.
I had also picked out Hit The Lights (4:30), but upon inspecting HRB's Odds Tracker, the 6yo's current price is 11/1 has drifted from the forecast price of 4/1. Will I live to regret leaving it out?
Jamie
Colt
Chesham
Sire
Sorry, clicked the wrong name LOL, I am multi responding and not multi tasking very well
Jamie
Colt
Just one that really interests me today and that's Noverre To Go (6:40). The 10yo looks encouraging when using HRB's profiler and the fact that he's been off the track for 100 days does not put me off. He's taken part in 12 cl6 races and has at least placed on 7 of those occasions (2 wins), so 20/1 looks an attractive price and I've already taken 5.4 for the place on Betfair.
Jamie
Colt
Have just been to a Cheltenham preview evening, in London. Phil Smith and Lydia Heslop on the panel, along with Claude Charlet and some bookie rep. Always worth listening to PS, who aired caution that a runner who hadn't yet replicated their hurdle mark early in their chase career probably wasn't worth following. That's what I'm going to take into Cheltenham.
Jamie
Colt
Today I'm including two runners who are making their NH handicap debut. They have been awarded an opening mark that is below the average winning handicap rating of the stallions progeny. I've been tracking this strategy for a while now and have found that using the market as a guide can pay dividends. For instance, many had an SP of 50/1 lto, yet are forecasted and run at single figure odds in their first handicap.
Sonne Of Presenting (4:30) - also hold multiple entries
Me Voila (4:50)
Sonne Of Presenting (4:30) - also hold multiple entries
Me Voila (4:50)
Jamie
Colt
No time like the present to jump back into this! I've picked out several that I will combine in an ew multiple.
Emerald (2:15)- from my multi entry thread, Marco Botti has landed in the money 2/2. Looking back at the previous 5 years winners of this race, Emerald falls within the range of average OR to race winner and has form to boot.
Hang Fire (2:40) goes into his first handicap race wearing saddlecloth #2, which suggests that he's not facing much and has been allocated a mark that's 7lbs lower than his stallion's average winning handicap rating. Last time out he was 100/1 and now is a quarter of that price.
This year's Lincoln looks to be a tight affair with only 8lbs separating top and bottom weight. You're Fired has plenty of decent form in large runner handicaps and remains on his last winning mark.
Transient Bay (3:10) won a class 4 against higher rated opposition LTO and faces the same again today as he is bottom weight. He's better than his mark suggests and as a course winner, on heavy ground, his low weight could prove a big factor.
Emerald (2:15)- from my multi entry thread, Marco Botti has landed in the money 2/2. Looking back at the previous 5 years winners of this race, Emerald falls within the range of average OR to race winner and has form to boot.
Hang Fire (2:40) goes into his first handicap race wearing saddlecloth #2, which suggests that he's not facing much and has been allocated a mark that's 7lbs lower than his stallion's average winning handicap rating. Last time out he was 100/1 and now is a quarter of that price.
This year's Lincoln looks to be a tight affair with only 8lbs separating top and bottom weight. You're Fired has plenty of decent form in large runner handicaps and remains on his last winning mark.
Transient Bay (3:10) won a class 4 against higher rated opposition LTO and faces the same again today as he is bottom weight. He's better than his mark suggests and as a course winner, on heavy ground, his low weight could prove a big factor.
Chesham
Sire
How does he decide which is the best race for one of his horses when they are in peak condition. Does have a private handicapper to work out the best race etc
Jamie
Colt
I did spot that a day or two ago he had two runners in a race and only one of them held multiple entries. It won at 20/1 (I didn't back it), so that's something along those lines that I want to ask about.
Jamie
Colt
Alarm call at 5:30am, out of the flat at 6am. The drive to Jamie Snowden's was pleasant enough and I was confident of arriving at 8am in time for Breakfast and to watch the 2nd lot train at 8:30. However, satellite navigation let us down and we didn't make it there until gone 9am, which was a little disappointing considering that we missed the only jumping session although we did see his 3rd lot working on the Lambourne gallops.
Met both Will Featherstone (who had a 20/1 winner for the yard a few days ago) and their apprentice Paige Fuller.
Jamie was very forthright and answered all the questions that I asked of him. From his website I deduced that he was previously a Captain in the army (4 years service) and from the visit I discovered that many of his owners have military backgrounds, including, it would seem, Paige's dad, who I presume Capt J Fuller who had a ride in 1997 for David Evans according to HRB. Paige's parents have recently bought Major Millbourne for her to ride competitively.
Chesham - he said that he normally weighs up the opposition in a race before confirming a runner. I didn't press him on this but I'm assuming it must be in terms of OR. He showed us the BHA admin site for a few races tomorrow and was checking them off against an RP racecard that he'd previously printed. I'm pretty certain that he doesn't use a private handicapper.
I asked him the reason why Our Reward held multiple entries when winning at 20/1 and Orchard Park who ran in the same race didn't, and he told me that Orchard Park did hold previous entries but got withdrawn and that his owner has recently moved to France and the 3rd was the latest date that he could be there to watch his runner run.
I think I quite impressed him when I told him of his record when using runners that held multiple entries!
Met both Will Featherstone (who had a 20/1 winner for the yard a few days ago) and their apprentice Paige Fuller.
Jamie was very forthright and answered all the questions that I asked of him. From his website I deduced that he was previously a Captain in the army (4 years service) and from the visit I discovered that many of his owners have military backgrounds, including, it would seem, Paige's dad, who I presume Capt J Fuller who had a ride in 1997 for David Evans according to HRB. Paige's parents have recently bought Major Millbourne for her to ride competitively.
Chesham - he said that he normally weighs up the opposition in a race before confirming a runner. I didn't press him on this but I'm assuming it must be in terms of OR. He showed us the BHA admin site for a few races tomorrow and was checking them off against an RP racecard that he'd previously printed. I'm pretty certain that he doesn't use a private handicapper.I asked him the reason why Our Reward held multiple entries when winning at 20/1 and Orchard Park who ran in the same race didn't, and he told me that Orchard Park did hold previous entries but got withdrawn and that his owner has recently moved to France and the 3rd was the latest date that he could be there to watch his runner run.
I think I quite impressed him when I told him of his record when using runners that held multiple entries!