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Daily ramblings and choices

Hi Jamie Jamie for myself its always first find the horse of interest and then work backwards seeking additional support beyond form and ratings,and what you describe above plays a part.What i have found sometimes is that patterns do show via previous running's of the same race and this can prove true for a 0-60 as well as the top class contests.My preference in most matters racing is to glean the less obvious.Trainers who have previously won the race in question are an easy find but less so those who have tried to win it and gone close. Dog and Day.?
 
Jamie said:
So let's start with today's 1:55; all past 5 winners have been top rated (HRB standard), which includes those that have won who have not yet been allocated an OR. This time it's Thomas Campbell. There are other aspects that I also measure, but for this race in particular, this is a very strong trend. Best price is currently 7/2.
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I've been looking at this race as I got told someone was having a bet on Lough Derg Spirit. I'm not sure if I'll play on the race, but for your selection. Geraghty has won 4 from 6 in this race, 1 of the losses coming at windsor, which must have been substituted in 1 year.
 
Interesting stuff, Holty10 Holty10. From what I can see, the race was abandoned in 2009 & 2010, which means Geraghty has won 4/5. Something that I didn't notice.
 
Christ. Horrid performance by Thomas Campbell, despite being backed into fav! That's the double out of the window :(

The winner held the highest OR and was second highest rated HRB standard.
 
I've taken a recent interest in novice hurdles, seeing as handicaps can be an absolute jigsaw puzzle at times. I limit my selections to those who are coming from a P2P or have only competed in a NHF. It's surprising what decent prices are around for such runners when there is a previous hurdle winner or two.

1:05 Hereford - Finian's Oscar - could run a big race today at the first time under rules after winning a P2P in October. He was then bought for 250k by Ann & Alan Potts. He's up against two novice hurdle winners and has an RP forecast of 5/1, although I can only see 5/2 available at the moment which I feel is a bit skinny.
 
Jamie said:
I've taken a recent interest in novice hurdles, seeing as handicaps can be an absolute jigsaw puzzle at times. I limit my selections to those who are coming from a P2P or have only competed in a NHF. It's surprising what decent prices are around for such runners when there is a previous hurdle winner or two.

1:05 Hereford - Finian's Oscar - could run a big race today at the first time under rules after winning a P2P in October. He was then bought for 250k by Ann & Alan Potts. He's up against two novice hurdle winners and has an RP forecast of 5/1, although I can only see 5/2 available at the moment which I feel is a bit skinny.
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Nice Pedigree and will be a good chaser in the future http://www.tattersalls.com/cat/CNO/2016/21.pdf
 
Jamie said:
I've taken a recent interest in novice hurdles, seeing as handicaps can be an absolute jigsaw puzzle at times. I limit my selections to those who are coming from a P2P or have only competed in a NHF. It's surprising what decent prices are around for such runners when there is a previous hurdle winner or two.

1:05 Hereford - Finian's Oscar - could run a big race today at the first time under rules after winning a P2P in October. He was then bought for 250k by Ann & Alan Potts. He's up against two novice hurdle winners and has an RP forecast of 5/1, although I can only see 5/2 available at the moment which I feel is a bit skinny.
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Landed that one and managed to get 3/1. Very impressive performer. Doubts set in before the off and I placed a small straight forecast of Acting Lass - Finians Oscar.
 
Today, I can't take my eyes off Filatore, in the 3:50.

It's one of 33 runners which held a multiple 5 day entry as of midnight and his trainer has at least placed with 10 of 21 such runners that he's sent out in the last 365 days. Bernard Llewellyn's multiple entry stats read 4/7 in the last four months and 3/4 in the last two months, which also help guide me to this selection.

Filatore is having blinkers reapplied and on the last two occasions that this happened, the horse has placed both times.

I shall be playing on the exchanges, where I've taken a place price of 8.8 and I'm also setting a small in running win trigger of 70, as he does hold the joint top RPR for the race.
 
Crikey, that wasn't a well thought out plan! In hindsight I'd label the bet as 'speculative'; I didn't assess the chances of the rest of the field (apart from considering the RPR), which is something I absolutely need to start doing - especially in handicaps.

Let's hope that Noble Robin can change my fortunes in the 12:50! A point winner back in Jan and now being introduced to hurdles. Ballymalin is the sole hurdle winner in the race and carries 14lbs more than most of the other runners, but much of that is negated by a 10lb claimer, although at present, Billy Bronco is head of the market. Interestingly, JP Mcmanus took over ownership of Noble Robin in April, which suggests that they are not rushing things and may have something tasty. Current price is 3/1, which I feel is generous considering that the field only consists of 7. Noble Robin also holds an entry on Thurs at Bangor in a cl3 nv hurdle.

An hour later at the same venue, Oxwich Bay lines up after two NHF races, the last of which he won. He's already at the head of the market at 2/1, so the remaining runners might not be up to much.

The final novice hurdle of the day takes place at Ludlow at 2:10. I previously backed Wizards Sliabh who won at 10/1 in his last race under the same conditions that I now apply for these novice hurdles. Brillare Memento (beaten fav) and Hitherjacques Lady both contested a listed NHF race lto, although neither landed in the place positions.

I'll be making Noble Robin my only single bet of the day, although I'll small-stakes double up with Oxwich Bay and add Brillare Memento for a treble.
 
Hi Jamie ? how accurate is the RPR as a guide, I sometimes glance at it but but I have never really worked out anything from it or based an opinion etc? I dont pay for RP I just use there app mainly for comments and a quick extra scan, I just wondered if there are any stats that could make the RPR more of a useful resource, or if you have any tips on its best use ?

Good luck today
 
elmoputney said:
Hi Jamie ? how accurate is the RPR as a guide, I sometimes glance at it but but I have never really worked out anything from it or based an opinion etc? I dont pay for RP I just use there app mainly for comments and a quick extra scan, I just wondered if there are any stats that could make the RPR more of a useful resource, or if you have any tips on its best use ?

Good luck today
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I have only been with RP for a couple of weeks, so I can't really comment on it's usefulness. They were running a 12 weeks for £12 promo and although I was a day or two late subscribing, they still honored it. I'll most likely be cancelling it at the end of the 12 weeks because it becomes £26! I haven't yet explored it fully, but all of today's novice hurdle winners had the highest RPR (go figure!).
 
Despite vying for favouritism, Noble Robin was let down by his hurdling ability, eventually finishing 4th. Didn't watch either of the other two races, but another of the horses that I mentioned, Hitherjacques Lady was placed at 20/1.

Thankfully I'm still slightly in pocket from Finian's Oscar.
 
I am yet to explain my reasoning for targeting novice hurdles: I believe that trainers who effectively 'miss out' maiden hurdles after their runner has competed in a P2P or NHF believe that the horse is of the potential to win such a race. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't!

The 2:40 is the sole novice hurdle of the day. Badbad Leroy Brown is the only runner that qualifies using my criteria, but I don't feel that he will be able to get placed. NO BET
 
Hello again, can't believe it was last year that I last wrote an entry here - amazing where the time goes!

Looking at today's 1:20, Zamperelli comes into the race 74 days after winning a P2P. Both Impulsive Star and Black Valentine who are at the front of the market won their first start under rules following P2P wins, so there are very generous prices knocking about for my selection and provided the field does not attract any NRs, I'm hopeful of a placed performance.

12/1ew Bet365
 
Taking a chance with Black Valentine in Wincanton's 3:50. Paul Nicholls has three in the race and this is one of two that won following a P2P. The other has subsequently ran in a graded race and finished 11L from the winner. My initial thoughts are that all involved are being a bit more patient with this one and although this is deviating a little from my original novice hurdle MO, if all 16 line up, there won't be many of similar ability.

7/2 for the win is decent price, imo. Bet365
 
A runner that I've previously mentioned in this thread, Finian's Oscar, runs in the Tolworth Hurdle, today. I initially shortlisted Capitaine for the win after profiling former winners of the race. I was considering changing my selection following the preview on The Opening Show, but having just retraced my thought steps, previous winners suggest that it's a race that needs more experience, so I'm sticking with Capitaine.
 
Black Valentine 3rd & Capitaine 2nd. With a bit more organisation to my game, I could have landed the trifecta and forecast in each race, respectively. Knowing my luck, however, I would have gone straight and not combination! I did feel that both of my selections were going well enough until the final stages of their races.
 
1:30 - Naranja and Peggies Venture have both placed in recent listed NHF races and face hurdles for the first time, while The Nipper won three NHF contests (including listed) but fell in her subsequent novice hurdle race. The Nipper has again been forecasted as fav despite being odds on LTO and being overtaken by the eventual 28/1 winner prior to falling. This is one of those bets when I have to try not to let sentiment not take over because I have met Naranja at Jamie Snowden's yard and also know one of the owners, however, I don't feel that many others here have a great deal of ability so I'll be going for a reverse forecast of Naranja and Peggie's Venture.
 
Up The Navan Road fits my criteria in the 1:25, although he may just find one too good to be capable of winning as that should go to Bastien. However, trainer Michael Roberts had the maiden hurdle winner on this card last year and has only had one winner since from 21 runners, although two of his horses also placed at Plumpton last year.

Can currently get 10/1 with Betbright, while it's as short as 7's with others. I'll be on ew
 
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