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Daily ramblings and choices

Previous fives winners of the nv hcp chase at Ascot have won it on their 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 4th attempt. Taking the top 2 weights out and those who have already won a nv hcp chase and that just leaves Free Stone Hill. Can get 16/1 with Ladbrokes atm, and I think that's a cracking price to go ew with.

Carlisle is an meeting that has been added to the calendar.
 
Non runner, which is just as well because I was a bit drunk when I posted :rofl:

There are three possible races tomorrow, but two appear to have just been ran once before and one is being held for the first time. For that reason, I'll only be delving into the 3:05 at Huntingdon, to see if the method can stand up with minimal back checking - Meldrum Lad won this in 2017. It was his first run in a nv hcp chase, but he had raced in several plain hcp chases before. There are only two in the field that have not yet raced in a nv hcp chase; Minella For Me and Royal Tara. MFM has had a few hcp chases but has fallen in twice in his career, RT is coming straight from novice hurdles, although he did win a point and chase over in Ireland. Taking that into account, my preference would be Royal Tara, whose best odds are 9/1.
 
At the time when I was writhing last night's post, the BHA fixtures page did not list the final racecard and instead only had entries. The racecard was eventually updated at some point during the morning as a two of the races now show further previous winners! This has also been an issue previously and it always seems to be Sunday going into Monday :stinker:

The good thing is that from next week I'll be working from home :happy-wavemulticolor:

No eligible races on Tuesday.
 
The 3:15 at Warwick is a nv hcp chase, although it has only been as such for two previous runnings. The victors have won on attempt 5 & 3, it's been their first win over fences and as a passing observation, both have dropped 9lbs from their initial chase mark. 7/8 of these at least placed lto, so it could be quite competitive but sticking with the first two winner profile points above, it points towards Minella Scamp. Best odds of 13/2 (ew) are currently available with Bet365.
 
Minella Scamp finished just out of the placings in 4th. Bet365 are offering 100% matched deposit at the moment, so it was effectively a free bet.

4 runner, nv hcp chase, on Thurs at Towcester. It was just ran as a hcp chase before last year, when it was won by Today Please, who was running for the first time over fences. None are doing so today and the only runner yet to win a hcp over the bigger obstacles is San Pedro De Senam. I won't be parting with any money but that will be my prediction.
 
3:15 - Last five winners have won on nv hcp chase attempt 2, 5, 3, 2, 3. Amalfi Doug and Cashanova have no chase experience, whereas Crafty Roberto has too much. This leaves Tactical Manoeuvre and Lickpenny Larry, who each have only ran in one previous nv hcp chase and are very similar prices. Again, not a race that I'd feel comfortable any money in, but for curiosity purposes, I'll side with Tactical Manoeuvre.
 
Fav, Tactical Manoeuvre finished 3rd and at time time of posting was 2nd fav. Winner, Lickpenny Larry, who was fav, started 2nd fav :headbang:
 
Chepstow 3:05 - Previously won on nv hcp chase attempt 2, 3, 3, 2, 1. Bendant, who was the 2013 winner, had prior hcp chase experience. This only leaves Colmers Hill and Dancing Conquest from a field of seven. DQ has failed to finish a hcp race over fences and has dropped 8lbs since her last race and competes in a better race today. CH failed to complete last twice and has been dropped 3lb. However, he's in a race of the same handicap banding to lto. Both are currently available at 11/1 and I prefer CH's chances, who has previously placed on a chase mark of 99.

Plumpton 4:10 - Previously won on nv hcp hdl attempt 2, 1, 2, 1, 2. All had prior hcp hdl experience. This rules out Geni Johnson and Welluptoscratch. King Cnut, Cassivellaunus, Royal Hall and Goldslinger go for their first attempt in such a race. Citivesses takes part in her second and considering that there has been 20/1 and 33/1 winners, she could cause an upset, especially if the change of headgear does the trick. Currently 25/1.
 
1:50 Kelso has been ran as a nv hcp chase for 3 previous years. There are no significant trends for winners and only 4 runners today, so will be leaving it alone.

4 runners also line up for the 3:40 at Uttoxeter, which has been ran twice previously. Winners have won the race on their 3rd and 1st attempt at such a race. Top weight, Allyson Monterg, strikes the eye as it's his first race in nv hcp chase company. Was PU lto at Cheltenham in a Gr1, in hot company, after winning a nv chase before that, which was his first time over fences. 3/1 is a very fair price, considering.
 
5:00 Carlisle sees 10 line up at the tape. Previous winners have delivered on their 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st & 2nd nv hcp chase attempt and at the same time, it has been their very first win over fences. Following these rules, it now cuts the field to 6 and two are wearing new equipment for the first time; Podili Road (visor) and Bill Daron (blinkers). Court Baloo has had wind surgery since his last race.
Personally, I'm drawn between Court Baloo and Bill Daron, but A C Whilans (CB) has a woeful chase record. JP Ewart's (BD) record, however, is perfectly reasonable, however, and he has the better navigator. EW price of 14/1 available.

There have been 4 previous runnings of the 3:10 nv hcp chase and winners have been on their 2nd, 3rd, 1st and 3rd attempt at such a race. Only one of those winners had won previously over fences, so I'm again going to use that as a filter, which leaves only one possibility and that's Casper King. He's PU previous two races but now has blinkers applied and previously won his maiden hurdle at the track.

Back later with the 4:45...
 
Nv hcp hrd at 4:45. Attempt 1, 2, 1, 5, 1 at such races by previous winners. Only one winner had previously won a hdl race and raced on the turf flat. Nor had they previously attempted a steeplechase. There has also been 3 winning conditional jockeys at 50/1, 33/1 and 11/2, so I have little issue putting up Scrupuleux (ew @ 66/1) and Holdbacktheriver (6/1). Holdbacktheriver is ridden by the trainer's daughter, who's overall hurdle record is 4 wins in 13.

Fingers crossed for a profitable day :handgestures-thumbup:
 
4 Previous runnings of Sedgefield's nv hcp chase (3:40). Attempt 1, 7, 4 and 1. The fav in this race is odds on and 2nd fav is short enough, so taking an ew chance with Book Of Love, who attempts fences for the first time. He is 8/1 generally.
 
2:15 Chepstow - Attempt 2, 1, 1, 1, 4 for the past five winners at nv hcp hurdles, which reduces the 16 runner field by zero. However, no winner had raced on the flat, which takes it down to 14. All but one had previous hcp hdl experiences, reducing the possible runners to 11. Three winning jockeys were claiming and there has been three winning mares, which suggests Lizzie Langton. She looks to be having a better time with Tizzard and has not yet won since having a tongue tie applied, This could be the one and I hope that she drifts a bit in the market as 5/1 seems a bit skinny.

4:05 Chepstow - Past winners have taken 5, 5, 3 and 5 nv hcp chase attempts, so I believe the field can almost be cut in half. Top weight, Milanisi Boy, despite pulling up lto in a hot Cheltenham event, seems a worthy favourite. He won a similar race at the track in December. Cucklington also looks an interesting runner and carries more than a stone less in weight, which could prove significant but his 7th nv hcp chase rules him out.

2:40 Newcastle - 3, 4, 2, 2, 2 nv hcp hdl attempts for past winners of this race and the field can be reduced by two because of this. No past winner had competed in a chase, which takes out the two top weights (heaviest win to win has been 11st7, anyhow) and Honeychile Rider, who refused the last on her one chase start. This just leave Gogo Baloo and Mayze Ball. I prefer GB, who's 2nd time out since wind surgery. She was much closer to the winner in her last and stayed on, so hopefully she will be able to build upon that this time.
 
Carlisle 2:45 - Nv hcp chase, not ran in 2017 but in the four years prior, winners won on 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 1st attempts. That leaves the bottom and top weight; neither of whom have attempted fences but two of the previous winners have won at the first time of asking, Top weight, Onlyfoolsownhorses, has recorded a good hurdle record, whereas bottomweight, Crawford Mills remains a maiden but has Brian Hughes in the saddle and the trainer has a strong record at the track. Both are similar prices but I'm opting for CM @ 9/2 with Corals.

Need to get a winner on the board!
 
2nd yesterday but down to 4 runners, so can't even claim a place!

Cheltenham 3:50 - Attempt 3, 2, 3, 2, 2 for the past 5 winners of this nv hcp chase, which only leaves 3 runners who have participated in a similar number of novice races. All previous winners have shown ability over fences, as have the trio of possibilities here - Baden, Kelvingrove and Definitly Grey - although Baden really strikes the eye after winning a 0 - 130 lto in first time cheekpieces. This is a 0 - 135 but he has placed in a race of the same handicap rating. Price is skinny but hopefully he can go one better this time. 5/2 generally

At 16/1, Kelvingrove is tempting for a place.
 
Forum was down when I tried to post in the early hours re Cheltenham listed nv hcp chase and again hitting the crossbar! Last five winners of the race were 2, 2, 2, 3, 3 attempts and I decided to go with Pretty Reckless, who ended up 3rd of 7 @ 18/1. Midnight Target won the race on her 2nd attempt...
 
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