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Daily Racing Insight

HENNESSY ?

The big handicap of the day with lots of history but in recent years i have found myself looking one of last years novices on hdc debut, not really got one for today's race but i was very impressed by MYRETOWN at chelts, particularly his jumping which might help him off is much higher mark and seasonal debut in what looks a proper hennessy to me.
 
Kate Treacy somehow managed to tip two even money losers, but came up with a gem if reading the column.

Irandando Has won @ 25/1 (43 bfsp), beating the other horse she mentioned.

It was the stongest of the three runners the trainer had in the race, from nine runners.


The 2m Download The At The Races App Maiden Hurdle at Southwell (1.30) has a few horses of interest based on what we have seen of them so far. Easily the most intriguing is Irandando Has, with the six-year-old having been off the track since September 2022 when finishing a close second in France, and the market should reveal more about his wellbeing and just how ready he is on his return, but he is certainly one to watch.
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He'd be a lay for me T tacker if the exchange price follows the market move, although I'm clueless what I've got running for me.

The distance is an issue, plus the the dam.

Got two entries on the 3rd January which may show intent for a follow up under a penalty, or has he he just picked this as the weakest of the three ?
 
DOCTORS HILL 3.50 NEWBURY

Doctors Hill cost 240k out of the points field and was sold onto his current owner for 125k after finishing runner up in his bumper.
He was beaten 12ls into third by Masked Man at Chepstow in October in a novice hurdle which has worked out well. The winner has subsequently won and finished second in a Grade 2, the second home again has since finished second to Keable, stablemate of Doctots Hill, off 118, as well as winning a maiden hurdle. The fourth has won off 112. The eighth, ninth and twelfth have all since won.
Doctors Hill went on to win his maiden before finishing thirsd to Non Stop where he was given too much to do. He was then upped to 20f where he was made favourite but didn't see it out in a better race than this. Every horse ahead of him were rated 120-128 with three rated 127-128.

Philip Hobbs has a 21% strike rate in Handicap Hurdles over 16.5f at Newbury, 17-81. That improves to 6-11 in races confined to conditionals. He is 5-5 with those that go off favourite and 6-7 with those that go off first or second favourite.

An outsider that may run well could be Tintintin as he is well handicapped again but it is two years since he won.
 
3.20 newc...WILTSHIRE 14/1

My first approach here is to note his last couple of runs over c/d, his times were 1.11.45s and 1.11. 61s
Might those numbers give him a solid chance ? Maybe but had a bit on for now and will look at what is a good race at a good meeting imo.

BERKSHIRE WHISPER 1.11.03s
GERMANIC 1.12.28S
 
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Newcastle

12.30

Abdution 16/1 Lion's House 12/1

`1.05

Maxi Boy 4/1 Dandy Magic 6/1

1.40

Bella Sonata 4/1 Nikki Swango 8/1

2.15

Duke Of Oxfird 4/1 Ribble Vibe 8/1

2.50

Dark Moon Rising 18/1 4 places


3.20

Coul Angel 5/1 Germanic 13/2 Wiltshire 16/1 4 places

4.30

Strom Star 5/2 Apiarist 8/1

Wolves

5.0


Stipulation 11/2 Magic Runner 16/1 Prince Ali 33/1

5.30

Fools Rush In 10/30 Implied Volatility 12/1


6.30


Nordic Glory 9/2 Eldeyaar 13/2 4 places

7.0

Advancing 15/8 Mr Baloo 11/1 Rajipour 11/1 First Greyed 14/1

7.30

Starfighter 7/1 Rampant 25/1
 
T tacker,

Very hard race to call but the most interesting race of the day for me.

Adjusted RPR's have six horses rated 114-113 (includes Wiltshire).

Stalls - far side.

Note - there will be 15K bonus to the winner of tomorrow's race if they also win on Good Friday.

The bonus becomes 35K if tomorrow's winner wins the Lingfield trail race on 27/2 as well.

I'm attending a funeral / wake so that's my priority but I may be home in time to watch the race.

Good luck with your bets.

Regards,
 
pinemarten said:
T tacker,

Very hard race to call but the most interesting race of the day for me.

Adjusted RPR's have six horses rated 114-113 (includes Wiltshire).

Stalls - far side.

Note - there will be 15K bonus to the winner of tomorrow's race if they also win on Good Friday.

The bonus becomes 35K if tomorrow's winner wins the Lingfield trail race on 27/2 as well.

I'm attending a funeral / wake so that's my priority but I may be home in time to watch the race.

Good luck with your bets.

Regards,
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Thanks for the input pinemarten pinemarten and i agree the more you look at the race the harder it is to sort out.
From a form point of view i'm thinking on two levels, first the turf form means little and other AW form is around a bend, perfectly reasonable to choose a piece of form from several runners that have shown ability to handle the course and there are all sorts of factors to take into account including pace which will probably include POCKLINGTON in 8, will there be a bias ? who knows.
To be honest my initial fancy for WILTSHIRE is no better than i first thought ie worth a small ew bet on a race and meeting where it will be a change to see some better racing.
 
T tacker,

That's why its looks a tough race to call, ie - its not only the form but the pace & draw.

AND what are the trainer's intentions.

23K is a nice pot to take home but some of the yards will not want to risk altering the current OR with the 77K pot on Good Friday in mind.

I have no doubt one or two of the runners will be working back from the big pot.

AND, one or two may have Meydan / Saudi / Bahrain in their minds as big money pots are forthcoming.

TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother may provide his speed ratings for the race. Always a great guide in these race types.

*** the whole card is going to be a good watch. Most of which I'll have to watch back via the replays.

Have a good day.

Regards,
 
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pinemarten said:
@
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother may provide his speed ratings for the race. Always a great guide in these race types.
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tacker said:
3.20 newc...WILTSHIRE 14/1
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You have to say T tacker if Haggas has got the horse back to anywhere near his third to Night Raider he woulkd dot up given Night Raider's subsequent record, fourth in the Nunthorpe last summer. Just a head behind Annaf who was second, has since won Group 3.
His Timeform comment for his comeback on January 1st reads

is lightly raced these days and wasn't seen to best effect after a further 9 months off; slowly into stride, raced off the pace, pushed along soon after halfway, kept on, finished with running left and not knocked about; it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he's being campaigned with All-Weather Finals day in mind.

He may have a better chance than his odds imply as pinemarten pinemarten has kindly shared the bonus pots, today might just be his day.

He blew the start in the Golden Rose but still got within 4ls of Night Raider and recorded a Timeform speed figure of 105. He run to 109+ on Timeform form ratings. He is only 2lbs short of top rated Coul Angel today, who is on my radar.

Only two jockeys have won on Coul Angel, Rab Havlin and Tom Marquand. Havlin 3-4 on the gelding.
Timeform comment.

had looked an unlucky loser at Kempton the time before and similar comments apply once again, this getting nowhere near the bottom of him after he was twice checked in his run; mid-field, pushed along early in straight, keeping on when hampered inside final 1f, forced to switch, hampered again final 100 yds, not recover; he's a progressive sprinter and will be back to winning ways soon.

That race on New Years Day at Southwell certainly is the guide to this.

Ten Pounds who finished fourth in that race cost connections £320,000 so they must have high hopes for him. He run without his tongue tie last time. He was declared to run with it but it came loose and couldn't be refitted in time.Ten Pound is unexposed and could be better than his 104.

Trained by Jack Ramsden's son, they will have a plot in mind and whether its the bonus remains to be seen. Valmont who own the horse have the majority of their horses with Ralph Beckett so sending this one to Joey, they must hold him in high regard. I suppose he was champion trainer in South Africa.

I could go on and bore you with the rest but what a cracking race for the middle of January on a Friday afternoon.
 
I had both the caltonian and coul angel on my radar, caltonian would be better suited to its other entry on Tues, I would have been all over Coul Angel, but the race is tough and the odds are a little lower than I would have liked (I would have been a buyer at 6/1, but missed the opportunity)

Half the field is blue this morning on oddschecker, they do tend to do that for the opening of BOG season each morning, but then branch off a little later in the morning as the money starts coming in.

There is still a chance I may get an interest on the exchange, but there is indeed some good racing to watch today, and much will be taken forward from today i'm sure.

Good luck if anyone gets involved.

Edit, just noticed that exchange had some 7.6 available. I took a small amount of that.
 
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mlmrob said:
You have to say T tacker if Haggas has got the horse back to anywhere near his third to Night Raider he woulkd dot up given Night Raider's subsequent record, fourth in the Nunthorpe last summer. Just a head behind Annaf who was second, has since won Group 3.
His Timeform comment for his comeback on January 1st reads

is lightly raced these days and wasn't seen to best effect after a further 9 months off; slowly into stride, raced off the pace, pushed along soon after halfway, kept on, finished with running left and not knocked about; it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he's being campaigned with All-Weather Finals day in mind.

He may have a better chance than his odds imply as pinemarten pinemarten has kindly shared the bonus pots, today might just be his day.

He blew the start in the Golden Rose but still got within 4ls of Night Raider and recorded a Timeform speed figure of 105. He run to 109+ on Timeform form ratings. He is only 2lbs short of top rated Coul Angel today, who is on my radar.

Only two jockeys have won on Coul Angel, Rab Havlin and Tom Marquand. Havlin 3-4 on the gelding.
Timeform comment.

had looked an unlucky loser at Kempton the time before and similar comments apply once again, this getting nowhere near the bottom of him after he was twice checked in his run; mid-field, pushed along early in straight, keeping on when hampered inside final 1f, forced to switch, hampered again final 100 yds, not recover; he's a progressive sprinter and will be back to winning ways soon.

That race on New Years Day at Southwell certainly is the guide to this.

Ten Pounds who finished fourth in that race cost connections £320,000 so they must have high hopes for him. He run without his tongue tie last time. He was declared to run with it but it came loose and couldn't be refitted in time.Ten Pound is unexposed and could be better than his 104.

Trained by Jack Ramsden's son, they will have a plot in mind and whether its the bonus remains to be seen. Valmont who own the horse have the majority of their horses with Ralph Beckett so sending this one to Joey, they must hold him in high regard. I suppose he was champion trainer in South Africa.

I could go on and bore you with the rest but what a cracking race for the middle of January on a Friday afternoon.
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Terrific post and I will read again, ta.
 
mlmrob mlmrob,

I agree that the Southwell may have the answers to this.

I posted a detailed analysis of that race on my thread in which the winner Pocklington & Ten Pounds featured.

I have been pondering Ten Pounds all morning.

I have a full page written about him on my rough manuscript notes.

RPR 107 recently just 4 lbs off previous best.
Tired late both visually & backed up be the sectionals.
Most horses improve 7 lbs for their first run so that would see a career best here.
BUT returns after 15 days.
Past profile sees 21 or more days between races.
2-2 @ Newcastle.
A stiff straight track is clearly what's required.
Can carry the 9-12.
Carried this in the Bunbury Cup when conceding 4 lbs to More Thunder.
Stall 14 of 14 = negative or positive?

*** did NOT wear the declared TT last time but on today.

Valmont paid big bucks for this one.
They run 2 at the meeting today.

Gross horse who should peak this year.

IMHO this will be a group horse in 2026.

The 15 day turn around & draw are slight concerns.

More of a concern , like you, is todays intentions.

If they want it I think it will win.

pete pete,

The Caltonian - comes out well on TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother plus17 method.

Regards,
 
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