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Daily Racing Insight

The Friday of the two day Scottish National Meeting has been a happy hunting ground for Dan Skelton. Since 2016, the year of his first runners, he has saddled at least one winner on the Friday every year until last year, 10-33. Harry Skelton was injured last year and Bridget Andrews took the rides. With Harry Skelton riding nine of those ten winners, Davy Russell rode the other, it looks essential that the brothers combo is the place to follow. 26 rides have seen Harry score with 9, every year he has ridden at the meeting he has had at least one winner.

Today
1.20 Next Left
1.50 Shaelikeafeather
2.20 Catch Him Derry
2.50 Jet Plane
3.20 Theformismighty

All nine winners went off first or second favourite from 17 rides, with Catch Him Derry and Jet Plane the two that currently sit in those positions.

Shakelikeafeather and Theformismighty currently sit third best in their markets
 
Far from the madding crowd, Jeremy Scott has banged in seven winners from nineteen runners in the last 30 days. Every winner was in the first three of the betting, 7-13. Today he sends out

2.00 Font Joe Cotton
6.00 Exeter Elusiveness.

He also saddles an outsider in the 5.30 Exeter My Lady Phoenix.

Of those seven winners, Lorcan Williams is 5-6 and he heads to Exeter for Elusiveness.
The mare is well bred being a half sister to Freedom who won a Group 3. Her flat pedigree has probably been against her running on deep ground and the reluctance of the handicapper to give her an OR after her three races down the field in Novice Hurdles looks significant. Connections decided to show a little bit of their hand last time when Elusiveness was third to two very short priced horses in first and second. She was expected to finish third in the betting and she duly did without getting knocked about. The handicapper has given her a mark of 88 which connections must be rubbing their hands at.
Lorcan Williams and Jeremy Scott are 7-19 with horses that go off in the first three of the betting at Exeter, 6-12 first two.

Joe Cotton was taken to Exeter for his handicap chase debut and dotted up by 22ls. He has got 10lbs for that but the bottom line is he is probably a 120s horse judging on his pedigree. Scott is 7-27 with horses in handicap chases with six or less runs in such races at Fontwell. That improves to 5-11 with those that had won last time, 4-8 started favourite.
 
Or of course that happens instead..... I didn't even notice Skelton had a 2nd horse in the 15:20 @ Ayr, but the 2nd string horse for Skelton just won with Kielan Woods riding (Punta Del Este @ 25/1) - typical :D
 
Yeh I had the Sean O'Connor winner but I just played Skelton doubles, no single, so I only hit the Sean O'Connor winner with the Harry Skelton favourite that won, not that good of a return really, I was down for the day.

I'm not sure I fancy Skelton today, Nicholls looks slightly better (or might mix Skelton & Nicholls), but I think my main bet today is going to be Willie Mullins @ Ayr mixed with William Buick @ Newbury.

Also, John Gosden is 12-0 so he's either due today or he just hasn't got his horses tuned yet, I wonder if he's getting his horses tuned for the start of May, but I might have a win treble anyway.

Arrest 2/1 - 13:30 Newbury
Regal Jubilee 3/1 - 14:05 Newbury
God's Window 1/9 - 16:50 Nottingham

If he can't win on a 1/9 there's something amiss, not really worth backing other than win treble (£5 win treble = £60.50), might leave it.

Good luck all.
 
SCOTTISH NATIONAL 3.35 AYR

Ten years trends

10-10 WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING OF 135-146
Those outside that range are 0-104. They have managed 15 places from the 40 available.

8-10 WINNERS HAD WON AT LEAST ONE OF THEIR LAST THREE RACES.
The 2017 winner had fell in the National and the 2014 winner had won his fourth last race but with his last two races over hurdles, he did win one of his last three chases.

Combining the two trends has found 8 of the last 10 winners for a profit of 55 points.

Mr Vango, Macdermott, Beauport, Tommie Beau, Broken Halo are this years qualifiers.

Mr Vango was the last horse the late Mark Bradstock saw win and this monster of a horse, he's 18hh, would bring the house down if he won. Racing has a habit of emotional stories and with Mark passing away in March, his wife has kept the operation running. This has been his target. Mr Vango ran as well as could be expected behind Corbetts Cross.

Macdermott is a 6yo and horses of that age are 0-19 in this. He hasn't sorted his jumping out yet.

Beauport had a hard race in the Midlands National and whether 35 days is enough to get over that slog is debatable. He is 0-4 on flat tracks.

Tommie Beau has a few regional Nationals under his belt. He is 0-15 when he goes off bigger than 6/1. He is 7-19 in handicap chases and should be around the places.

Broken Halo is yet to place on a left handed track, 0-7.

Although rated 133, Git Maker has an excellent chance based on his second in the Kim Muir. He was 8ls behind Inothewayurthinkin who went on to win the Grade 1 Mildmay last week. Git Maker had absolutely no chance at Cheltenham. With just 10-3 on his back compared to 11-1 at Cheltenham, he may well be a trend buster here.
 
Last edited:
mlmrob said:
SCOTTISH NATIONAL 3.35 AYR

Ten years trends

10-10 WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING OF 135-146
Those outside that range are 0-104. They have managed 15 places from the 40 available.

8-10 WINNERS HAD WON AT LEAST ONE OF THEIR LAST THREE RACES.
The 2017 winner had fell in the National and the 2014 winner had won his fourth last race but with his last two races over hurdles, he did win one of his last three chases.

Combining the two trends has found 8 of the last 10 winners for a profit of 55 points.

Mr Vango, Macdermott, Beauport, Tommie Beau, Broken Halo are this years qualifiers.

Mr Vango was the last horse the late Mark Bradstock saw win and this monster of a horse, he's 18hh, would bring the house down if he won. Racing has a habit of emotional stories and with Mark passing away in March, his wife has kept the operation running. This has been his target. Mr Vango ran as well as could be expected behind Corbetts Cross.

Macdermott is a 6yo and horses of that age are 0-19 in this. He hasn't sorted his jumping out yet.

Beauport had a hard race in the Midlands National and whether 35 days is enough to get over that slog is debatable. He is 0-4 on flat tracks.

Tommie Beau has a few regional Nationals under his belt. He is 0-15 when he goes off bigger than 6/1. He is 7-19 in handicap chases and should be around the places.

Broken Halo is yet to place on a left handed track, 0-7.

Although rated 133, Git Maker has an excellent chance based on his second in the Kim Muir. He was 8ls behind Inothewayurthinkin who went on to win the Grade 1 Mildmay last week. Git Maker had absolutely no chance at Cheltenham. With just 10-3 on his back compared to 11-1 at Cheltenham, he may well be a trend buster here.
Click to expand...
What are your / anyone’s thoughts on one stable fielding so many entries
 
Is Willy Mullins British Champion Trainer now or does he have to wait until Sandown next week.

Is there any difference between trainers with muliple entries markfinn markfinn and families like the O'Brien's. I feel sure there are many races with plenty of family connections within the race without the same surname.


Arkle
 
Skelton or Nicholls need to win everything now but it's looking like it's Willie's.

Fielded so many just trying to win the trainer championship - 1st time an Irish trainer has won it since Vincent O'Brien in 1954. Without the £500k Grand National win he'd be way off, and probably wouldn't have bothered with Ayr other than the National.
 
arkle55 said:
Is Willy Mullins British Champion Trainer now or does he have to wait until Sandown next week.

Is there any difference between trainers with muliple entries markfinn markfinn and families like the O'Brien's. I feel sure there are many races with plenty of family connections within the race without the same surname.


Arkle
Click to expand...
Probably correct but there is still stable rivalry to consider - all want to satisfy there own owners
 
rbtblb82 said:
Skelton or Nicholls need to win everything now but it's looking like it's Willie's.

Fielded so many just trying to win the trainer championship - 1st time an Irish trainer has won it since Vincent O'Brien in 1954. Without the £500k Grand National win he'd be way off, and probably wouldn't have bothered with Ayr other than the National.
Click to expand...
With so grades horse’s where do they run them - perhaps IRB need to have another day a week racing to accommodate them all
 
I think Willie was quite up front with his runners chance in the Scottish National

We run six in the Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase over 4 miles. Klarc Kent (Sean O’Keeffe) has a handy weight but would need to show considerable improvement to get involved. MacDermott (Danny) is improving and we think he will have no trouble with this trip. He’s in good shape and has an obvious chance. Mr Incredible (Patrick) has every chance if he puts his best foot forward. He jumps well and will like the track and ground. Ontheropes (Brian Hayes) will appreciate the ground but does need to improve significantly. Spanish Harlem (Paul) has been a little disappointing but this track will suit and so will the ground. The fact that Paul opted for him is a plus. We’llhavewan (Kieran Callaghan) has really nice light weight and Kieran claims a useful 5lbs. He jumps well and will stay the trip.
 
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