Daily Racing Insight
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
arkle55
Sire
Has horse racing technologies have change and improved over the years Willy Mullins clearly knows what he is doing. It is some time since the stable has had a bad season. I guess the media will have their say if the stable was to only have 5 winners at the Cheltenham Festival.
A good stable always needs a good stable / regular jockey to win anything. Paddy Brennan has just retired from the saddle, who will Fergal O'Brien replace him with.
Arkle
markfinn
Sire
Yes I agree and we can point to history - we could argue that Dickinson had a similar or better one off result result - still not good for the sport, even though it was great local ( to me ) to me at leat - result
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mlmrob
Sire
Irish racing has suffered from it but I think we have an uinique situation that the trainers championship is a three way go this year. The other problem there are far too many pattern races and not enough top grade handicaps.
You only have to look at the Race programme to see how close some of these Listed and Grade 3 Chases are. Earlier inm the season there was a l;isted chase over the same distance on Thursday and Saturday, as a consequence both races suffered. It is so easy for a mare to pick up a bit of black type over the jumps these days.
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mlmrob
Sire
MUSSELBURGH 6.45
There has been 21 Handicaps over 5f with between 13-17 runners at Musselkburgh.
19-21 WINNERS WERE DRAWN IN QUARTERS, 2-3-4.
Those drawn in Q1 have returned 2-81 and you have to go back to 2014 to find the last winner.
19-21 WINNERS HAD A P/R FIOGURE OF 1.25 OR LESS
Thiose with above have returned 2-80 and you have to go back to 2012 to finjd the last winner.
There is a dog leg about a furlong out which requires a bit of jockeyship.
18-21 WINNERS WERE RIDDEN BY A JOCKEY WHO CLAIMS 0LBS OR 3LBS.
The last horse to win with a 5lbs or 7lbs jockey on board was in 2016 and that was Nathan Evans and before that it was in 2014 when Ali Rawlinson claimed 7lbs, Both turned out alright.
Combining the three trends has found 16-21 winners and a profit of 39 points backing all blindly.
Today, Jm Jungle, Marine Wave, Glorious Angel, Zarzyni, Running Cool qualify.
Record of today's qualifyng trainers under the trends but in races with any number of runners
There has been 21 Handicaps over 5f with between 13-17 runners at Musselkburgh.
19-21 WINNERS WERE DRAWN IN QUARTERS, 2-3-4.
Those drawn in Q1 have returned 2-81 and you have to go back to 2014 to find the last winner.
19-21 WINNERS HAD A P/R FIOGURE OF 1.25 OR LESS
Thiose with above have returned 2-80 and you have to go back to 2012 to finjd the last winner.
There is a dog leg about a furlong out which requires a bit of jockeyship.
18-21 WINNERS WERE RIDDEN BY A JOCKEY WHO CLAIMS 0LBS OR 3LBS.
The last horse to win with a 5lbs or 7lbs jockey on board was in 2016 and that was Nathan Evans and before that it was in 2014 when Ali Rawlinson claimed 7lbs, Both turned out alright.
Combining the three trends has found 16-21 winners and a profit of 39 points backing all blindly.
Today, Jm Jungle, Marine Wave, Glorious Angel, Zarzyni, Running Cool qualify.
Record of today's qualifyng trainers under the trends but in races with any number of runners
mlmrob
Sire
6-8 last night so worth keeping trends
mlmrob
Sire
EPSOM 2.10
Horses aged 8yo or older are 1-41 in this with the winner Bishops Court basck in 2005.
However, looking at the more recent trends, last 9 years, not run in 2020 due to Covid.
Horses older than 7yo are 0-16, so less are trying their hand now. 4yos though are 0-14.
Horses outside the top five in the betting are 0-40.
Jojo Rabbit, One Night Stand, Night On Earth, Mondammej and Micks Spirit are currently outside the top 5 in the betting but would qualify if the market moved them inside the band.
The record of the field in races where the top weight is rated 93-105
Record of the field in races with an AOR of 80+
Record of the field with a combo of the above, an AOR of 80+ and a Max OR in race of 93-105
Horses aged 8yo or older are 1-41 in this with the winner Bishops Court basck in 2005.
However, looking at the more recent trends, last 9 years, not run in 2020 due to Covid.
Horses older than 7yo are 0-16, so less are trying their hand now. 4yos though are 0-14.
Horses outside the top five in the betting are 0-40.
Jojo Rabbit, One Night Stand, Night On Earth, Mondammej and Micks Spirit are currently outside the top 5 in the betting but would qualify if the market moved them inside the band.
The record of the field in races where the top weight is rated 93-105
Record of the field in races with an AOR of 80+
Record of the field with a combo of the above, an AOR of 80+ and a Max OR in race of 93-105
pinemarten
Sire
mlmrob
Sire
Absolutely
pinemarten the market is the strongest rating of them all especially the exchanges close to the off. Trouble is, life gets in the way of sitting in front of a computer all day and being a Millionaire Pensioner.
pinemarten
Sire
pete
Sire
mlmrob
Sire
BET 365 TROPHY, WHITBREAD GOLD CUP IN OLD MONEY.
Been going a long time this race, 1957, and the roll of honour of past winners includes Arkle who carried 12-7 to victory in 1965. He had won the Gold Cup in his previous race.
It is a different race these days and moreso in the last ten years and the trends have been taken from that date frame.
9-10 WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING OF 135-149.
Those rated 150+ are 0-25 with just the three places. Those not rated between 135 and 149 have returned 1-43 with Henlan Harri breaking the trend at 40/1 in 2017.
10-10 WINNERS HAD WON OVER 24F OR MORE.
Only 18 have attempted without that trend and all failed. Two placed.
10-10 WINNERS DID NOT RUN AT AINTREE LAST RACE.
Those that came here from Aintree are 0-40
What the three trends do is usually half the field and then the work starts.
This year Le Milos, Annual Invictus, Rapper, Slipway, Certainly Red and Fortescue qualify.
From the qualifiers horses that were priced at 20/1 or larger returned 0-29 with three places.
Certainly Red, Slipway and Fortescue would fail on that trend.
The Kim Muir at Cheltenham where Annual Invictus and Rapper run last time was won by a Grade 1 winner in Inothewayurthinkin.
Annual Invictus wasn't unlucky in the race but would have been much closer to Inothewayurthinkin. He was badly hampered at the fifth last that knocked him back to last. It is a credit to the horse that he finished seventh. He demolished Forward Plan in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster the time before and was sixth in this last year off 140. He has improved and I think he will be thereabouts if he doesn't get in a pace battle.
Rapper fell in the Kim Muir and has his own ideas about the game. If he consents to get involved he should turn the tables on Threeunderthru five. He is still pound higher than his last win howver.
Le MIlos looks like he has been targeted at this. He hasn't run in a chase since he run in the 2023 Grand Natiional off 152. He has run in three hurdle races this campaign including the Pertemps Final and by doing that Skelton has got the handicapper to drop him to 149.
Been going a long time this race, 1957, and the roll of honour of past winners includes Arkle who carried 12-7 to victory in 1965. He had won the Gold Cup in his previous race.
It is a different race these days and moreso in the last ten years and the trends have been taken from that date frame.
9-10 WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING OF 135-149.
Those rated 150+ are 0-25 with just the three places. Those not rated between 135 and 149 have returned 1-43 with Henlan Harri breaking the trend at 40/1 in 2017.
10-10 WINNERS HAD WON OVER 24F OR MORE.
Only 18 have attempted without that trend and all failed. Two placed.
10-10 WINNERS DID NOT RUN AT AINTREE LAST RACE.
Those that came here from Aintree are 0-40
What the three trends do is usually half the field and then the work starts.
This year Le Milos, Annual Invictus, Rapper, Slipway, Certainly Red and Fortescue qualify.
From the qualifiers horses that were priced at 20/1 or larger returned 0-29 with three places.
Certainly Red, Slipway and Fortescue would fail on that trend.
The Kim Muir at Cheltenham where Annual Invictus and Rapper run last time was won by a Grade 1 winner in Inothewayurthinkin.
Annual Invictus wasn't unlucky in the race but would have been much closer to Inothewayurthinkin. He was badly hampered at the fifth last that knocked him back to last. It is a credit to the horse that he finished seventh. He demolished Forward Plan in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster the time before and was sixth in this last year off 140. He has improved and I think he will be thereabouts if he doesn't get in a pace battle.
Rapper fell in the Kim Muir and has his own ideas about the game. If he consents to get involved he should turn the tables on Threeunderthru five. He is still pound higher than his last win howver.
Le MIlos looks like he has been targeted at this. He hasn't run in a chase since he run in the 2023 Grand Natiional off 152. He has run in three hurdle races this campaign including the Pertemps Final and by doing that Skelton has got the handicapper to drop him to 149.
mlmrob
Sire
PUNCHESTOWN 6.00
Quite simply one trend has found 10 of the last 12 winners.
10-12 WINNERS HAD THEIR LAST RACE AT AINTREE OF FAIRYHOUSE.
With horses coming direct to Punchestown from Cheltenham reading 0-24, it looks like this race might have been an afterthought or the horse has had hard race at Prestbury Park and is now over the top.
Though horses running in the Irish and Aintree Nationals have returned 0-14, most of them were double figure prices in this and on checking had little chance so I have left those horses in.
So 17 becomes six, James De Berlais, Bill Baxter, The Goffer, Must Be Obeyed, Adamantly Chosen and Embittered.
James De Berlais has placed in the two biggest handicap chases in Ireland this season but dropped back in distance to finish seventh in the Plate at Cheltenham. He then finished second in the Topham. He finished third in the Grade 1 Novice Chase on this card last year behind Feronily and Appreciate It. He has always been just short of top class but he has enough class to win this. Mullins has won this seven times with two of those rated 150+. He also has second, fourth and fifth places with such horses and only two didn't reach the frame.
Bill Baxter only got as far as the third in the Topham and hasn't won since winning the 2023 version. He is a pound lower today and probably will go right handed. This is the second time he has worn cheekpieces, first time last time out, he should run his race but may get involved in a pace battle.
The Goffer hasn't won a chase since February 2023 though he did win a charity bumper this February. He has a fourth and a fifth in consecutive Ultimas. He didn't get home in the Grand National and Elliot has not had a horse place in twelve attempts in this.
Must Be Obeyed ran well to finish fourth in a Mares Listed Chase last time but she hasn't won since January 2023. She likes to lead which may not be the best policy with so many liking to dominate.
Adamantly Chosen bled in the Grand National and was 13ls behind James De Berlais at Leopardstown. Even on 3lbs better terms it is difficult to see him turning the tables.
Embittered won the Foxrock in December off 137 and is still 4lbs above that mark despite under performing in his last five races.
Conclusion: James De Berlais is short for this but he ticks all the boxes and this strong travelling 8yo does possess a hint of class about him. The Goffer should run his race, 3-3 on yielding and he has a decent record over this distance. However, he is 0-9 off marks in the 140s.
Quite simply one trend has found 10 of the last 12 winners.
10-12 WINNERS HAD THEIR LAST RACE AT AINTREE OF FAIRYHOUSE.
With horses coming direct to Punchestown from Cheltenham reading 0-24, it looks like this race might have been an afterthought or the horse has had hard race at Prestbury Park and is now over the top.
Though horses running in the Irish and Aintree Nationals have returned 0-14, most of them were double figure prices in this and on checking had little chance so I have left those horses in.
So 17 becomes six, James De Berlais, Bill Baxter, The Goffer, Must Be Obeyed, Adamantly Chosen and Embittered.
James De Berlais has placed in the two biggest handicap chases in Ireland this season but dropped back in distance to finish seventh in the Plate at Cheltenham. He then finished second in the Topham. He finished third in the Grade 1 Novice Chase on this card last year behind Feronily and Appreciate It. He has always been just short of top class but he has enough class to win this. Mullins has won this seven times with two of those rated 150+. He also has second, fourth and fifth places with such horses and only two didn't reach the frame.
Bill Baxter only got as far as the third in the Topham and hasn't won since winning the 2023 version. He is a pound lower today and probably will go right handed. This is the second time he has worn cheekpieces, first time last time out, he should run his race but may get involved in a pace battle.
The Goffer hasn't won a chase since February 2023 though he did win a charity bumper this February. He has a fourth and a fifth in consecutive Ultimas. He didn't get home in the Grand National and Elliot has not had a horse place in twelve attempts in this.
Must Be Obeyed ran well to finish fourth in a Mares Listed Chase last time but she hasn't won since January 2023. She likes to lead which may not be the best policy with so many liking to dominate.
Adamantly Chosen bled in the Grand National and was 13ls behind James De Berlais at Leopardstown. Even on 3lbs better terms it is difficult to see him turning the tables.
Embittered won the Foxrock in December off 137 and is still 4lbs above that mark despite under performing in his last five races.
Conclusion: James De Berlais is short for this but he ticks all the boxes and this strong travelling 8yo does possess a hint of class about him. The Goffer should run his race, 3-3 on yielding and he has a decent record over this distance. However, he is 0-9 off marks in the 140s.