Compiling Speed figures.
- Thread starter TheBluesBrother
- Start date
I would expect MISTER FISHER to run in the MARSH NOVICES CHASE over 2 1/2 miles run on the thursday, 10/1 atm and 8/1 NRNB.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
I sometimes wonder why I even bother compiling speed figures for Wolverhampton, the top 8 speed figures on the night came from the Amateur race, I even put a stopwatch on the race to double check the winning time, the race was true run.
RUNNING CLOUD had been beaten 25 times since a winning debut in June 2017 and he hadn't shown much in his first two starts for this yard but he showed his true colours here. Well positioned early, he was sent to the front one furlong out and kept on well to win going away. He'll still have some handicapping scope once reassessed but it's worth bearing in mind the runner-up was a tired horse in the closing stages.
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Mentioned by the RP:
Eyecatcher: Plunger (6.30) met plenty of trouble before being forced very wide and his turn is near.
I must admit it does look like John Butler is doing a "Barney".
Plunger:
WENCESLAUS took it up going best on the far side and, laughing at a 3lb rise in the weights, he could've been called the winner turning for home. The 8yo has now won his last three over fences, is now unbeaten in as many runs at this venue, and it has to rate clear career-best. It'll be interesting to see if connections now look for something under a penalty, or wait to try their luck in better company.
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
Mike.
RUNNING CLOUD had been beaten 25 times since a winning debut in June 2017 and he hadn't shown much in his first two starts for this yard but he showed his true colours here. Well positioned early, he was sent to the front one furlong out and kept on well to win going away. He'll still have some handicapping scope once reassessed but it's worth bearing in mind the runner-up was a tired horse in the closing stages.
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Mentioned by the RP:
Eyecatcher: Plunger (6.30) met plenty of trouble before being forced very wide and his turn is near.
I must admit it does look like John Butler is doing a "Barney".
Plunger:
WENCESLAUS took it up going best on the far side and, laughing at a 3lb rise in the weights, he could've been called the winner turning for home. The 8yo has now won his last three over fences, is now unbeaten in as many runs at this venue, and it has to rate clear career-best. It'll be interesting to see if connections now look for something under a penalty, or wait to try their luck in better company.
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
Mike.
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davejb
Dam
So I wrote an email to the BHA saying that the rail moves at Warwick on 22 Jan looked incorrect, as I put it
' the 2m races were cited as being reduced by 5 yds, the 3m 2f (approx) by 10 yds, so shouldn't the 2m 5f hurdle at 1.35 also have a rail move to deduct?'
... and the reply was
'If you contact Warwick Racecourse directly via: warwick@thejockeyclub.co.uk or 01926 405560, they should be able to assist you further. '
- by which I take it the BHA don't consider it their business to check that the courses are feeding them correct information.
Dave
' the 2m races were cited as being reduced by 5 yds, the 3m 2f (approx) by 10 yds, so shouldn't the 2m 5f hurdle at 1.35 also have a rail move to deduct?'
... and the reply was
'If you contact Warwick Racecourse directly via: warwick@thejockeyclub.co.uk or 01926 405560, they should be able to assist you further. '
- by which I take it the BHA don't consider it their business to check that the courses are feeding them correct information.
Dave
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Why would they be interested? this problem does pop up quite frequently when the hurdles and chase courses share the same bend, when this happens the clerks of the courses have to make an educated guess, my classic example has to be the national hunt course at Carlisle watch any race there if you want to see a clerk of the courses nightmare.
As you know Newcastle NH changed their hurdle race distances numerous meetings ago, the RP are still using the original standard times, I sent DE an email this morning asking why, especially as it was him who informed me in the first place.
Update: DE replied about the changes to the Newcastle hurdle distances and cannot recall sending me an email, so I forwarded it back to him, why do I bother!
Mike.
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TheBluesBrother
Dam
The one horse that did stand out to me from yesterday's meeting at Down Royal was Lady Heath the 66/1 outsider and who only cost connections €4,500 hacked up in the bumper sprinting clear to the line, I wonder how many telephone calls the connections received after this impressive performance.
LADY HEATH travelled in mid-division, travelled well to challenge on the downhill run to the elbow, and just as one was expecting her to be seen off by the favourite, she quickened smartly and ended the race as a contest in not many strides. She could be a very smart mare, time will tell, on the other hand she could find life difficult with a winner's penalty so early. Early indications are good though.
QUOTES: LADY HEATH has the most phenomenal attitude, she loves her work and does things so easily, but I was not expecting that - Lorna Fowler, trainer
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
GULLIVER, after a 108-day break on his Fibresand debut, won the Coral Sprint Trophy from 4lb lower over this trip on soft at York in October, having finished third in the Ayr Gold Cup. He had to warm to his task from the rear, but picked up powerfully from towards the top of the straight. The 6yo was well on top by the line, clocking some fast closing split times.
SANDRIDGE LAD is a dual 5f winner off up to 5lb higher on this Fibresand course and had already shown promising form over this 6f trip on Polytrack and Tapeta this winter. He ran out a really taking winner here, combining the two for the first time, and is clearly one to note over 6f on this track.
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Mike.
LADY HEATH travelled in mid-division, travelled well to challenge on the downhill run to the elbow, and just as one was expecting her to be seen off by the favourite, she quickened smartly and ended the race as a contest in not many strides. She could be a very smart mare, time will tell, on the other hand she could find life difficult with a winner's penalty so early. Early indications are good though.
QUOTES: LADY HEATH has the most phenomenal attitude, she loves her work and does things so easily, but I was not expecting that - Lorna Fowler, trainer
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
GULLIVER, after a 108-day break on his Fibresand debut, won the Coral Sprint Trophy from 4lb lower over this trip on soft at York in October, having finished third in the Ayr Gold Cup. He had to warm to his task from the rear, but picked up powerfully from towards the top of the straight. The 6yo was well on top by the line, clocking some fast closing split times.
SANDRIDGE LAD is a dual 5f winner off up to 5lb higher on this Fibresand course and had already shown promising form over this 6f trip on Polytrack and Tapeta this winter. He ran out a really taking winner here, combining the two for the first time, and is clearly one to note over 6f on this track.
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Mike.
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Chesham
Sire
Re Lady Heath
After race at Down Royal Tue, 28th Jan, 2020 (1st)
I tell you what there are good surprises and bad surprises and this is a very good surprise!. This was a hot race and I declared her when it was yielding to soft and I thought 'oh no, it's gone soft' but we have gone this far, so I let her take her chance. I said to the jockey to ride her to finish the race and if you finish in mid-division that's a great result. She has got the most phenomenal attitude and she loves her work. She does everything so easy but I was not expecting that and I am delighted. She is such a good filly at home and just loves to get down to work. It's a sign that the horses are in good form. I haven't had a runner for a good while and hopefully the others might run okay. She's a bit of a gauge for me. John, my late father-in-law, trained the dam and Tom (Bruton, owner) bred her. Today was meant to be a nice, educational run. She had to start somewhere but we said we would take our chance and see where we go. The phone can buzz away - it is totally up to Tom. I'm hoping we will have a bit of fun with her.
Mrs Lorna Fowler
After race at Down Royal Tue, 28th Jan, 2020 (1st)
Chesham
Sire
TheBluesBrother
davejb after looking at standard times for National Hunt for the last week it will come as no surprise to you guys that the only course that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever using the quadratic trend lines is Sligo, I know you have called into question the distances there as a work of fiction and I think you are correct , I wouldn’t trust anything that comes out of Sligo.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Nothing to note from yesterday's fayre...
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Mike.
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Mike.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
TheBluesBrother
Dam
TheBluesBrother
Dam
T
TC2
Here is a walkthrough on how I tackle an Irish NH meetings where rail movements are not published.
When I calculate going allowances I use the winner's official ratings as a guide, for horses that have not been assigned a handicap rating I use the RPR and covert them to official ratings using my RPR to OR Conversion table (attached below), the converted figures are highlighted in yellow.
The RPR figures are available in the member's area of the RP "Analysis of winning times".
For NH racing I use a base rate of 130.
Note: when dealing with NHF races I treat them as hurdle races.
I now look to use the 3 fastest times as my guide.
I decided not to use the NHF figure.
Looking at the average total I am looking at a figure of -192 which converts to -1.92 when I add this figure into my going allowance column.
Now I need to adjust the average total figure down -28 which is the constant I use for national racing to bring all the meetings into line.
As I suspected the rails/distances are out of sync as normal at Limerick, after adding the -1.92 figure into my excel sheet going allowance column, the average total figure id not down to -49, it needs more adjustment.
So making further adjustments I end up with a going allowance of -220 (-2.10), the total average now reads -28.
Adjusting for the final speed figures.
Final Speed figures and going allowance.
Comparing the speed figures against the official ratings I pick up that the bumper winner Vinnie Is Busy looks to be useful.
VINNIE IS BUSY was confidently ridden by the young rider, who looks very polished. He had little doubt about the horse's ability to gallop and stay as he went to the front before the top of the hill and continued to travel powerfully in front early in the straight. When he was asked to go a bit quicker he responded as he promised to do and stretched clear in taking fashion. He clearly acts on this sort of ground but he doesn't necessarily need it. He looks a very nice horse going forward.
QUOTES: VINNIE IS BUSY had been working very well, and when Light Brigade was second at Gowran the other day, we were confident that this horse was a fair bit better. He'll probably go for a winner's bumper - Charles Byrnes, trainer
I added him to my tracker.
Here endeth the lesson...
Mike.
Here is a walkthrough on how I tackle an Irish NH meetings where rail movements are not published.
When I calculate going allowances I use the winner's official ratings as a guide, for horses that have not been assigned a handicap rating I use the RPR and covert them to official ratings using my RPR to OR Conversion table (attached below), the converted figures are highlighted in yellow.
The RPR figures are available in the member's area of the RP "Analysis of winning times".
For NH racing I use a base rate of 130.
Note: when dealing with NHF races I treat them as hurdle races.
I now look to use the 3 fastest times as my guide.
I decided not to use the NHF figure.
Looking at the average total I am looking at a figure of -192 which converts to -1.92 when I add this figure into my going allowance column.
Now I need to adjust the average total figure down -28 which is the constant I use for national racing to bring all the meetings into line.
As I suspected the rails/distances are out of sync as normal at Limerick, after adding the -1.92 figure into my excel sheet going allowance column, the average total figure id not down to -49, it needs more adjustment.
So making further adjustments I end up with a going allowance of -220 (-2.10), the total average now reads -28.
Adjusting for the final speed figures.
Final Speed figures and going allowance.
Comparing the speed figures against the official ratings I pick up that the bumper winner Vinnie Is Busy looks to be useful.
VINNIE IS BUSY was confidently ridden by the young rider, who looks very polished. He had little doubt about the horse's ability to gallop and stay as he went to the front before the top of the hill and continued to travel powerfully in front early in the straight. When he was asked to go a bit quicker he responded as he promised to do and stretched clear in taking fashion. He clearly acts on this sort of ground but he doesn't necessarily need it. He looks a very nice horse going forward.
QUOTES: VINNIE IS BUSY had been working very well, and when Light Brigade was second at Gowran the other day, we were confident that this horse was a fair bit better. He'll probably go for a winner's bumper - Charles Byrnes, trainer
I added him to my tracker.
Here endeth the lesson...
Mike.
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TheBluesBrother
Dam
Keep Wondering, having his first run over fences, benefited from a patient waiting ride and was galloping all over his rival turning in. Still on the bridle when striking the front two out, he settled matters very quickly and jumped the last like a fresh horse. Third off this mark on his handicap hurdles debut at Uttoxeter on New Year's Eve, he's already proved himself a much better chaser and could be one to follow.
Vinnie Is Busy (4:45 Limerick)
VINNIE IS BUSY was confidently ridden by the young rider, who looks very polished. He had little doubt about the horse's ability to gallop and stay as he went to the front before the top of the hill and continued to travel powerfully in front early in the straight. When he was asked to go a bit quicker he responded as he promised to do and stretched clear in taking fashion. He clearly acts on this sort of ground but he doesn't necessarily need it. He looks a very nice horse going forward.
QUOTES: VINNIE IS BUSY had been working very well, and when Light Brigade was second at Gowran the other day, we were confident that this horse was a fair bit better. He'll probably go for a winner's bumper - Charles Byrnes, trainer
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
JORVIK PRINCE, debuting for Michael Appleby off a potentially good mark, showed himself to be rejuvenated, bounding clear in the straight to win easily. His last win came off a mark of 63 and he might be capable of getting back to that level. A quick reappearance looks in order.
Will To Win has now won three of his four career starts, all on different surfaces, and looks a progressive 3yo. The way he pulled away again in the final furlong as Speed Merchant came to challenge suggests he might have just been idling in front and he looks nicely ahead of his opening mark for now. Chances are that he'll win again before the handicapper really has chance to get to grips with him.
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Speed figures:
Flat: AW2018_2019.xlsx
NH: NH2018_2019.xlsx
Mike.
Vinnie Is Busy (4:45 Limerick)
VINNIE IS BUSY was confidently ridden by the young rider, who looks very polished. He had little doubt about the horse's ability to gallop and stay as he went to the front before the top of the hill and continued to travel powerfully in front early in the straight. When he was asked to go a bit quicker he responded as he promised to do and stretched clear in taking fashion. He clearly acts on this sort of ground but he doesn't necessarily need it. He looks a very nice horse going forward.
QUOTES: VINNIE IS BUSY had been working very well, and when Light Brigade was second at Gowran the other day, we were confident that this horse was a fair bit better. He'll probably go for a winner's bumper - Charles Byrnes, trainer
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
JORVIK PRINCE, debuting for Michael Appleby off a potentially good mark, showed himself to be rejuvenated, bounding clear in the straight to win easily. His last win came off a mark of 63 and he might be capable of getting back to that level. A quick reappearance looks in order.
Will To Win has now won three of his four career starts, all on different surfaces, and looks a progressive 3yo. The way he pulled away again in the final furlong as Speed Merchant came to challenge suggests he might have just been idling in front and he looks nicely ahead of his opening mark for now. Chances are that he'll win again before the handicapper really has chance to get to grips with him.
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Speed figures:
Flat: AW2018_2019.xlsx
NH: NH2018_2019.xlsx
Mike.
thanks mike
TheBluesBrother find these figures really interesting and insightful. I wouldnt be particularly au fait with spreadsheets, but will give it a shot at doing something similar
TheBluesBrother find these figures really interesting and insightful. I wouldnt be particularly au fait with spreadsheets, but will give it a shot at doing something similar
TheBluesBrother
Dam
NORDIC PASSAGE was held up off the pace, had only a couple behind him turning in, and he eased him closer once switching him to the inner and without resorting to the whip he got him up close home. The handicapper's reaction will be of interest, this is a horse that could well carry a penalty to victory.
QUOTES: NORDIC PASSAGE came home well last day and the main task here was just to get him switched off. When he got there he didn't do a huge amount in front, but he is a horse to continue to look forward to - Donagh O'Connor, rider
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Springfield Fox jumped well and was in command from a long way out in this informative novices' handicap chase. Connections consider the winner an ideal type for the NH Chase at Cheltenham in March, formerly run over 4m.
Springfield Fox, unbeaten in his three points, relished this switch to fences and jumped and galloped his rivals into submission in the rain-softened ground. The 7yo had hinted at ability in limited tries over hurdles but he was always going to make a better chaser and duly stepped up considerably on what he'd achieved beforehand. Considered an ideal type for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, a race now run over 3m6f as opposed to its usual 4m, he's all about stamina and will be dangerous under a penalty if handed a similarly easy lead.
QUOTES: Springfield Fox was a good pointer, but he jumped hurdles appallingly and hated them. We always knew he'd be a chaser and he's done it nicely there. He loves soft ground and will stay all day. He just needs a test of stamina - Tom George, trainer
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
Mike.
QUOTES: NORDIC PASSAGE came home well last day and the main task here was just to get him switched off. When he got there he didn't do a huge amount in front, but he is a horse to continue to look forward to - Donagh O'Connor, rider
Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
Springfield Fox jumped well and was in command from a long way out in this informative novices' handicap chase. Connections consider the winner an ideal type for the NH Chase at Cheltenham in March, formerly run over 4m.
Springfield Fox, unbeaten in his three points, relished this switch to fences and jumped and galloped his rivals into submission in the rain-softened ground. The 7yo had hinted at ability in limited tries over hurdles but he was always going to make a better chaser and duly stepped up considerably on what he'd achieved beforehand. Considered an ideal type for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, a race now run over 3m6f as opposed to its usual 4m, he's all about stamina and will be dangerous under a penalty if handed a similarly easy lead.
QUOTES: Springfield Fox was a good pointer, but he jumped hurdles appallingly and hated them. We always knew he'd be a chaser and he's done it nicely there. He loves soft ground and will stay all day. He just needs a test of stamina - Tom George, trainer
Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
Mike.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
I will be tuning in to watch RTEs coverage of the Irish Champion Hurdle today to see if the hype horse Honeysuckle can make the frame, in this company she should be outclassed, In several of her races the Top Speed figures are worse than mine.
Mike.
Mike.
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