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C'mon Leeds!

A big test against 'The Arse' upon their return. Leeds seem to be lacking a bit these first few games and letting opponents take control, resulting in goals against.

City will probably end up with a 'managable' slap on the wrist. If it was us, we'd be straight into the bottom league.
 
If it had been us the authorities would have shown no mercy. As it stands at the moment the cheats owner reckons that this could drag on for years before a decision is made. That would mean that a lay against them being relegated would be the best call for this season. You’re right, Leodis, we’ve a tough October coming up. You never know, we’re showing a brave resilience these days and we may well surprise ourselves. Anything to come, glad of it! Can’t be doing with these International breaks. I’m bored silly. The sooner the proper football’s back the better even if it is away to the Arsenal.
 
Monty said:
If it had been us the authorities would have shown no mercy. As it stands at the moment the cheats owner reckons that this could drag on for years before a decision is made. That would mean that a lay against them being relegated would be the best call for this season. You’re right, Leodis, we’ve a tough October coming up. You never know, we’re showing a brave resilience these days and we may well surprise ourselves. Anything to come, glad of it! Can’t be doing with these International breaks. I’m bored silly. The sooner the proper football’s back the better even if it is away to the Arsenal.
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I don't know why all the international bollocks can't be played during the summer months - out of season.
 
Match Report

  • Leeds come out marginally ahead on this recent‑form, strength‑of‑schedule metric.
  • Arsenal’s higher league class and home venue counterbalance that edge.
  • Momentum:
    • Arsenal: strong but with a recent sharp setback (0–3 at Brighton).
    • Leeds: unbeaten, consistent, and trending positively.
Overall, the numbers say: near‑parity in current power, with contextual tilt toward Arsenal due to home advantage and higher season class.

Estimated fair odds (analytical, not predictive)​

These are interpretive fair odds derived from the relative power ratings plus home advantage—not bookmaker lines, and not tips.

1X2 (Home / Draw / Away)​

Balancing:

  • Slight Leeds edge on recent Power Rating
  • Clear Arsenal edge on league class and home venue
A reasonable analytical split:

  • Home (Arsenal): ~44% → fair odds ≈ 2.27
  • Draw: ~28% → fair odds ≈ 3.57
  • Away (Leeds): ~28% → fair odds ≈ 3.57
This reflects a modest home favourite, with Leeds competitive enough to keep draw and away probabilities similar.

Over / Under 2.5 goals​

Recent goal volumes:

  • Arsenal matches: 12 total goals / 5 = 2.4 per game
  • Leeds matches: 10 total goals / 5 = 2.0 per game
Combined expectation sits around the 2.2–2.4 range, close to the 2.5 threshold.

  • Over 2.5 goals: ~48% → fair odds ≈ 2.08
  • Under 2.5 goals: ~52% → fair odds ≈ 1.92
Slight analytical lean toward Under, but not strongly—this looks like a balanced total line.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS)​

  • Arsenal: scored in 4/5, blank only vs Brighton.
  • Leeds: scored in 4/5, with one 0–0 vs Crystal Palace.
  • Both defences have shown control, but attacks are generally reliable.
  • BTTS – Yes: ~52% → fair odds ≈ 1.92
  • BTTS – No: ~48% → fair odds ≈ 2.08
This suggests a mild expectation that both sides find the net, but with real room for a lower‑scoring, one‑sided outcome.

Expected scorelines (most consistent with the ratings)​

Given:

  • Near‑equal Power Ratings
  • Arsenal home edge
  • Moderate goal expectancy (around 2–3 goals total)
Most coherent scorelines:

  • 1–1 (balanced, fits Under 2.5 and BTTS)
  • 2–1 to Arsenal (home edge, slightly higher total)
  • 1–0 to Arsenal (home edge, Under 2.5, BTTS No)
  • 2–2 (higher‑variance, both attacks firing)
These are plausible shapes, not forecasts—each consistent with the underlying numbers.

Consolidated summary table​

MetricArsenalLeeds UtdComment
League class weighting1.651.31Arsenal stronger on season‑long status
Last 5 record4W–0D–1L3W–2D–0LBoth strong; Leeds unbeaten
GF / GA (last 5)8 / 47 / 3Identical goal diff (+4)
GPR1.61.6Equal goal performance
MPL9.489.58Leeds slightly ahead on strength‑of‑schedule form
Power Rating11.0811.18Near‑parity, tiny Leeds edge
Home/away biasHomeAwayArsenal gain venue advantage; Leeds travel well
Fair odds – Home2.27—Modest home favourite
Fair odds – Draw3.57—Meaningful draw chance
Fair odds – Away—3.57Competitive away side
O/U 2.5 – Over2.08—Slightly less likely than Under
O/U 2.5 – Under1.92—Mild lean to Under
BTTS – Yes1.92—Slight edge toward both scoring
BTTS – No2.08—Still a realistic scenario
Key scorelines1–1, 2–1, 1–0, 2–2—Shapes consistent with ratings

Final verdict (non‑predictive, analytical)​

Arsenal and Leeds arrive at this match as near‑equals in current power, with Leeds very slightly ahead on recent strength‑of‑schedule performance but Arsenal clearly superior in league class and enjoying home advantage.

The numbers point to a competitive fixture rather than a clear favourite, with a modest tilt toward Arsenal at home, a meaningful draw probability, and a goal expectancy hovering around the 2–3 goal range where both low‑scoring control and open exchanges are plausible.
 
Delboy99 said:
…. Really agree also. ;)
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not sure ? that I do - I think it was a reasonable interlude - sick to death of hearing about Man City / Chelsea breaking the rules ( Everton going up for sale wjats going on ) and how great the Prem is - so there is only one real test now and that's internationals
 
Well, I thought we played well today and were unlucky not to take a point. We defended well and our sporadic attacks gave us a couple of chances which, with a bit of luck, may have gone in. Even as we went behind I thought there was still a chance, but Farke’s baffling use of substitutes weakened the team. We lost our shape and allowed Arsenal to get on top. The Leeds team that finished was definitely not as strong as the one that started the game. Can anyone tell me the purpose of signing Longstaff. He seldom gets a start and must be costing us a lot of money. Anyway, having watched Manchester United tonight and Leeds earlier on I can honestly say that next weekend’s meeting at ER holds absolutely no fears for me. I can see a very satisfactory outcome against our most hated rivals. I just wish Farke would use his substitutes more sensibly.
 
M Monty very interesting point. I wonder if it’s a resources thing or age attitude to the game

Going by Premier League bench output (goals and assists from subs), three managers stand out. I couldn't find reliable figures for the 2026-27 season so far, so this is based on the last two full seasons, and it's worth checking each is still in post.


  • Mikel Arteta (Arsenal): Arsenal led the league in 2025-26 for both goals (11) and assists (10) from substitutes. Opta's analysts suggested his use of subs could be the single most important difference in that title race.
  • Marco Silva (Fulham): Fulham set the single-season record for goals from substitutes in 2024-25, with 17. Rodrigo Muniz alone scored seven of them.
  • Andoni Iraola (Bournemouth, 2024-25): Bournemouth had the most sub goals in the league by January 2025 with 11, despite heavy injuries and a thin squad.

At the other end, Manchester City had the league's worst record in 2025-26, with one goal and two goal contributions from subs despite Pep Guardiola's squad depth.


Sub goals are a rough measure: they reward deep squads and attacking changes, and say nothing about substitutions that protect a lead.


Sources:


 
The average age of those succesfull managers is About 46.
  • Mikel Arteta: 44 (born 26 March 1982)
  • Andoni Iraola: 44 (born 22 June 1982)
  • Marco Silva: 49 (born 12 July 1977)

That's 137 years between them, an average of 45.7.

Farke is 50 later this month - not too old to learn new tricks
 
Leodis said:
A big test against 'The Arse' upon their return. Leeds seem to be lacking a bit these first few games and letting opponents take control, resulting in goals against.

City will probably end up with a 'managable' slap on the wrist. If it was us, we'd be straight into the bottom league.
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If city only get a manageable slap on the wrist then on the face of it will be a slap in the face for "The Arse" .
 
Leodis said:
It will be a slap in the face for everyone in the league and its integrity if the football gods dont get this one right. Burnham has already shown where his priority lies.
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Reckon Man City are in for a few shocks yet.

The announcement a week or so ago caught them off guard. They have the mindset they can throw billions at something and always win, and to some extent, that does work, but maybe about to learn a new lesson. ie: If owners/chairmen dig their heels in, the club is legally taken from them and sold, along with all the fines to pay and points deducted!
 
DuckandDive said:
Reckon Man City are in for a few shocks yet.

The announcement a week or so ago caught them off guard. They have the mindset they can throw billions at something and always win, and to some extent, that does work, but maybe about to learn a new lesson. ie: If owners/chairmen dig their heels in, the club is legally taken from them and sold, along with all the fines to pay and points deducted!
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Their appointed lawyer is set to make gazillions from the appeal case by the sound of it. I'm in the wrong job!
 
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I’m confident that we’ll beat Man U. We appear to be everything that they’re not. We’re hard working, determined and together as a team. On top of that they won’t know what’s hit them when they walk into the cauldron that Elland Road will be on Sunday. C’mon Leeds, indeed. MOT.
 
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