I think we are at the same level as last year, just a few new faces involved. Are we slightly better this season to avoid getting into another relegation scrap? Probably, but that's helped again because of the amount of teams out of form. As long as we kick lamposts' team into touch when we meet, I will be happy - he hates us!
Measure | Sunderland (home) | Leeds Utd (away) |
|---|---|---|
League rank / points | 20th / 4 | 8th / 10 |
Last five results | 0W–1D–4L | 1W–3D–1L |
Goals for / against | 4 / 12 | 7 / 5 |
MPL | 1.03 | 5.63 |
GPR | −3.20 | +0.80 |
Power Rating | −2.17 | 6.43 |
Indicative 1X2 fair odds | 4.55 | 1.96 |
Indicative Over / Under 2.5 | Over 1.82 | Under 2.22 |
Indicative BTTS fair odds | Yes 2.00 | No 2.00 |
Plausible scorelines | | 1–1 8.33 0–1 10.0 1–2 11.11 |
| Category | Bournemouth | Leeds Utd | Edge | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 Record (W/D/L) | 2-1-2 | 1-3-1 | Bournemouth | More wins, but against lower-weight opposition overall. |
| Goals For | 8 | 6 | Bournemouth | Greater attacking output across the sample. |
| Goals Against | 8 | 4 | Leeds | Stronger defensive record. |
| MPL | 4.63 | 5.06 | Leeds | Better weighted results against recent opposition. |
| GPR | 0.00 | 0.80 | Leeds | Positive goal differential boosts rating. |
| Power Rating | 4.63 | 5.86 | Leeds | Overall statistical advantage. |
| Venue | Home | Away | Bournemouth | Home advantage reduces the rating gap. |
| Momentum | Mixed Positive | Stable Positive | Leeds | More consistent recent performances. |
| Team | Form Sequence | Trend | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | D-L-L-W-W | Improving | Finished the sequence with back-to-back wins, including a 3-0 victory at Man Utd. |
| Leeds Utd | W-D-L-D-D | Stable | Only one defeat in five matches, although three draws suggest limited conversion of performances into wins. |
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Strongest Recent Win | Bournemouth (3-0 at Man Utd) |
| Strongest Overall Opponents Faced | Bournemouth |
| Most Consistent Results | Leeds Utd |
| Best Defensive Form | Leeds Utd |
| Overall Momentum Edge | Leeds Utd (slight) |
| Team | MPL | GPR | Power Rating | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 4.63 | 0.00 | 4.63 | Boosted by wins over Sunderland and Man Utd. |
| Leeds Utd | 5.06 | 0.80 | 5.86 | Strong weighted form combined with positive goal differential. |
| Outcome | Probability | Fair Odds | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth Win | 34% | 2.94 | Home advantage keeps Bournemouth highly competitive. |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | Strong possibility given Leeds' recent draw frequency. |
| Leeds Utd Win | 36% | 2.78 | Narrowly strongest outcome based on Power Rating. |
| Market | Probability | Fair Odds | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.96 | Bournemouth's matches increase goal expectancy. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 2.04 | Leeds' defensive record keeps this viable. |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.89 | Slightly favoured outcome. |
| BTTS No | 47% | 2.13 | Leeds capable of controlling scoring. |
| Score | Probability | Fair Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 Draw | 13% | 7.69 | Most Likely |
| 1-0 Bournemouth | 11% | 9.09 | Very Strong |
| 0-1 Leeds Utd | 11% | 9.09 | Very Strong |
| 2-1 Bournemouth | 9% | 11.11 | Strong |
| 1-2 Leeds Utd | 9% | 11.11 | Strong |
| 2-2 Draw | 6% | 16.67 | Outside Chance |
| 0-0 Draw | 6% | 16.67 | Outside Chance |
| 2-0 Bournemouth | 5% | 20.00 | Outside Chance |
| 0-2 Leeds Utd | 5% | 20.00 | Outside Chance |
| Any Other Score | 25% | 4.00 | Combined Remaining Outcomes |
| Area | Winner | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| League Strength | Leeds Utd | Higher league position and weighting. |
| Recent Wins | Bournemouth | Two wins from the last five compared with one for Leeds. |
| Defensive Form | Leeds Utd | Conceded only four goals in five matches. |
| Goal Production | Bournemouth | Eight goals scored versus six. |
| Weighted Form (MPL) | Leeds Utd | Better quality-adjusted recent results. |
| Power Rating | Leeds Utd | +1.23 advantage. |
| Home Advantage | Bournemouth | Important balancing factor. |
| Momentum | Slight Leeds Utd | Greater consistency despite fewer wins. |
| Category | Conclusion |
|---|---|
| Stronger Team Profile | Leeds Utd |
| Better Recent Goal Production | Bournemouth |
| Better Defensive Profile | Leeds Utd |
| Power Rating Edge | Leeds Utd (+1.23) |
| Projected Match Type | Balanced, competitive, moderate scoring |
| Most Likely Scorelines | 1-1, 1-0, 0-1 |
| Fair Result Lean | Leeds Utd / Draw |
Yes , the club should have let him go at the end of last season and secured a 'next level' manager. Just shows their level of ambition really.
Read both but I can’t add a like - very few more rabid about Leeds than myself - what do we want ? - well that’s an easy question to answer - we want it all - but let’s get real here - what base are we coming of - success is built not gifted - Farke - is he the best for Leeds ? Possibly not but who would realistically replace him - please don’t give me a list of Euro maybes or How - give me some one who has done it the hardway , some one who has thrived without a huge financial bucket to dip into - we have been there and never want to look back into that abyss again - what we are, is a middle to large to club , a one team city and that’s not always the good thing that people suppose , it means that we are always going to be well supported , but not necessarily to the moon and back, we have to accept that there are limitations ( even the best team in Europe Don Revies , often fell short, the opposition is always very close ) we are premier club and Europe would be great but nothing is a given , do we have the squad to play in Europe , good players exceed managers desires and instructions and if we were that good we would be playing better and not conceding points as we are . I would be consolidating (which they are ) and looking to the youth policy to fuel the future. Comeonleeds
Farke was backed financially, as he requested. Got some decent players tbh, Wilson on a free even. It's not player quality or lack of finances that is the problem, you could give Farke the Man City job and he would still end up dragging them to the bottom, long before the PL get to work on 'em. He just has limited, tactical nouse and very much a stick in the mud for changing anything. Remind you of anyone, not so long ago?!
| Club | Manager | Spent |
| Man City | Enzo Maresca | £457.5m |
| Chelsea | Xabi Alonso | ~£340m* |
| Tottenham | Roberto De Zerbi | £311.5m |
| Newcastle | Matthias Jaissle | £272.8m |
| Aston Villa | Unai Emery | ~£256m* |
| Liverpool | Andoni Iraola | £242.5m |
| Arsenal | Mikel Arteta | £205m |
| Ipswich | Gary O'Neil | £194.7m |
| Man Utd | Michael Carrick | £159.7m |
| Hull | Sergej Jakirović | £156.4m |
| Brighton | Fabian Hürzeler | £149.3m |
| Coventry | Frank Lampard | £122.4m |
| Brentford | Keith Andrews | £103m |
| Nott'm Forest | Oliver Glasner | £101.2m |
| Fulham | Álvaro Arbeloa | £91.8m |
| Leeds | Daniel Farke | £85.4m |
| Everton | David Moyes | £63.1m |
| Sunderland | Régis Le Bris | £55m |
| Bournemouth | Marco Rose | £53.8m |
| Crystal Palace | Pierre Sage | ~£47m* |
| Pos | Club | Wages £m/yr | Wage rank | +/− |
| 1 | Arsenal | 244 | 2 | +1 |
| 2 | Man City | 282 | 1 | −1 |
| 3 | Brighton | 77 | 12 | +9 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 221 | 4 | 0 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 206 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | Brentford | 66 | 16 | +10 |
| 7 | Everton | 72 | 13 | +6 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 82 | 11 | +3 |
| 9 | Tottenham | 193 | 6 | −3 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 129 | 7 | −3 |
| 11 | Hull | 31 | 19 | +8 |
| 12 | Leeds | 84 | 10 | −2 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 89 | 8 | −5 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 49 | 18 | +4 |
| 15 | Fulham | 69 | 14 | −1 |
| 16 | Coventry | 27 | 20 | +4 |
| 17 | Man Utd | 229 | 3 | −14 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 65 | 17 | −1 |
| 19 | Nott'm Forest | 89 | 9 | −10 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 68 | 15 | −5 |
Questions...Questions...Questions !!!!
