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Class/form horses

Leodis Leodis

"Obviously, there are things the trainer knows that the punter doesn't."

Very true, but the reverse may at times be true as well. The trainer may know a horse inside out, be sure it is as fit as possible, and really trying in a given race. But other trainers may well feel much the the same about their runners in the same race and, just maybe, sometimes the independent analyst may be better able to sort out the eventual winner than any of the trainers could, because he or she uses data more effectively.
 
The 3.42 Windsor today includes an example of how my chart may prove useful, Leodis Leodis.

Cape Toronada is, albeit only marginally, the third highest ranked on ability of the four consistent "form" horses in the field and as there are question marks in respect of the highest ranked, Kiss and Run, the second and third of the four, Cypriot Diapora and CT, merit attention.

When one looks at the Post's comments on CT, for both last wins they conclude with the words "always doing enough". Obviously true, as she won both races, but no way for an outsider to know what that might really mean - anything from good enough to stay ahead and win to could probably have won by 3l or more if she had been asked to.

On my performance ratings CT would appear to have little chance today, because the level of improvement needed for her to do so is significantly outside what for me is the normally acceptable range for a 3yo. But her trajectory on my ratings is very much upward. The chart gives a visual impression which, for me anyway, is more helpful than a statistical measure of the incline of the slope and a projection as to today's likely rating if the slope continues its current trajectory.

There are obvious negatives for CT irrespective of how one judges her trajectory. All but one of her seven runs this year have been in 3yo only handicaps, which always raises a question mark, and the rating for her one race against older horses returned a figure out of line (in a poor way) in the context of the other six. And of course from a VDW point of view, she is eleventh ranked of the fourteen runners in the ability rating ranking, so a lot of "better" horses from that angle. For me, despite her improving trajectory, she is not betting material today, but at least having the performance ratings and being able to show them as a chart allows for a sense of what "always doing enough" might mean. It can help with estimating progression with younger horses and well as with regression in older ones.

Purely on my performance ratings, Kiss and Run looks home and hosed, but ratings are seldom the answer on their own, and in her case, as a class dropper today there is insufficient support from the key horse in her last race and the going, "good, good to soft in places", if correct is something of a negative, and will become more so if the course dries significantly over the next few hours.

So, not a betting race for me, but an interesting one nevertheless.
 
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JennyK said:
The 3.42 Windsor today includes an example of how my chart may prove useful, Leodis Leodis.

Cape Toronada is, albeit only marginally, the third highest ranked on ability of the four consistent "form" horses in the field and as there are question marks in respect of the highest ranked, Kiss and Run, the second and third of the four, Cypriot Diapora and CT, merit attention.

When one looks at the Post's comments on CT, for both last wins they conclude with the words "always doing enough". Obviously true, as she won both races, but no way for an outsider to know what that might really mean - anything from good enough to stay ahead and win to could probably have won by 3l or more if she had been asked to.

On my performance ratings CT would appear to have little chance today, because the level of improvement needed for her to do so is significantly outside what for me is the normally acceptable range for a 3yo. But her trajectory on my ratings is very much upward. The chart gives a visual impression which, for me anyway, is more helpful than a statistical measure of the incline of the slope and a projection as to today's likely rating if the slope continues its current trajectory.

There are obvious negatives for CT irrespective of how one judges her trajectory. All but one of her seven runs this year have been in 3yo only handicaps, which always raises a question mark, and the rating for her one race against older horses returned a figure out of line (in a poor way) in the context of the other six. And of course from a VDW point of view, she is eleventh ranked of the fourteen runners in the ability rating ranking, so a lot of "better" horses from that angle. For me, despite her improving trajectory, she is not betting material today, but at least having the performance ratings and being able to show them as a chart allows for a sense of what "always doing enough" might mean. It can help with estimating progression with younger horses and well as with regression in older ones.

Purely on my performance ratings, Kiss and Run looks home and hosed, but ratings are seldom the answer on their own, and in her case, as a class dropper today there is insufficient support from the key horse in her last race and the going, "good, good to soft in places", if correct is something of a negative, and will become more so if the course dries significantly over the next few hours.

So, not a betting race for me, but an interesting one nevertheless.
Click to expand...
You need to assign a value to 'doing enough' if its a commonly enough term used by your size then this should not be a problem
 
JennyK said:
The 3.42 Windsor today includes an example of how my chart may prove useful, Leodis Leodis.

Cape Toronada is, albeit only marginally, the third highest ranked on ability of the four consistent "form" horses in the field and as there are question marks in respect of the highest ranked, Kiss and Run, the second and third of the four, Cypriot Diapora and CT, merit attention.

When one looks at the Post's comments on CT, for both last wins they conclude with the words "always doing enough". Obviously true, as she won both races, but no way for an outsider to know what that might really mean - anything from good enough to stay ahead and win to could probably have won by 3l or more if she had been asked to.

On my performance ratings CT would appear to have little chance today, because the level of improvement needed for her to do so is significantly outside what for me is the normally acceptable range for a 3yo. But her trajectory on my ratings is very much upward. The chart gives a visual impression which, for me anyway, is more helpful than a statistical measure of the incline of the slope and a projection as to today's likely rating if the slope continues its current trajectory.

There are obvious negatives for CT irrespective of how one judges her trajectory. All but one of her seven runs this year have been in 3yo only handicaps, which always raises a question mark, and the rating for her one race against older horses returned a figure out of line (in a poor way) in the context of the other six. And of course from a VDW point of view, she is eleventh ranked of the fourteen runners in the ability rating ranking, so a lot of "better" horses from that angle. For me, despite her improving trajectory, she is not betting material today, but at least having the performance ratings and being able to show them as a chart allows for a sense of what "always doing enough" might mean. It can help with estimating progression with younger horses and well as with regression in older ones.

Purely on my performance ratings, Kiss and Run looks home and hosed, but ratings are seldom the answer on their own, and in her case, as a class dropper today there is insufficient support from the key horse in her last race and the going, "good, good to soft in places", if correct is something of a negative, and will become more so if the course dries significantly over the next few hours.

So, not a betting race for me, but an interesting one nevertheless.
Click to expand...
The AE value on Just Did Enough is 1.21 not a huge number of occurrances (expected number 13.14)

The AE on Just Doing Enough add a little weight AE value 1.25 (expected number 19.1)
 
MySportsAI MySportsAI

I don't need to assign a value to "doing enough". It is plainly not a measureable in the strict sense of that word, rather a judgement and, I presume, made by different Post staffers in different circumstances.

I've spent more than enough time with social scientists (if ever there was a misnomer) as they try to convince that a high level of inter-rater reliability equals measurement to be quite clear about the difference between measurement and rating, and to know one from the other.
 
JennyK said:
MySportsAI MySportsAI

I don't need to assign a value to "doing enough". It is plainly not a measureable in the strict sense of that word, rather a judgement and, I presume, made by different Post staffers in different circumstances.

I've spent more than enough time with social scientists (if ever there was a misnomer) as they try to convince that a high level of inter-rater reliability equals measurement to be quite clear about the difference between measurement and rating, and to know one from the other.
Click to expand...
You are welcome JennyK
 
never done what is called ability ratings as such but from what i have worked out in this formula here they are for all today races on flat grass.
1 42 WINDSOR CRAFTY BLUE 11.462
1 42 WINDSOR MARSH BENHAM 10.900
3 42 WINDSOR KISS AND RUN 14.800
3 42 WINDSOR STRIKE 13 .875
3 42 WINDSOR REBEL PATH 10.920.
4 12 WINDSOR KING OF BERKSHIRE 24.612
4 12 WINDSOR PARISAN SCHOLAR 21.812
4 12 WINDSOR BRIGID WELL 9.830
4 42 WINDSOR SHABA SHABA 8.710
4 42 WINDSOR ELECTRICAL BASE 7.056.
4 42 WINDSOR JIMMY MARK 7.027.
5 12 WINDSOR FAUSTUS 8.024
5 12 WINDSOR BALLON DOR 12 334
5 12 WINDSOR CAMELEY DAY 3.440
2 21 THIRSK SATYRESS 8. 630
2 21 THIRSK DREAM ITHACA 7.000
3 51 THRISK FAN MAIL 6.180
3 51 THIRSK LAMLASH BAY 4.810.
4 21 THIRSK HATAMATO 11.615.
4 21 THIRSK MO ANAM CHARA 11.760.
4 21 THIRSK THORNABY ANNIE6.994.
4 51 THIRSK VEGAS VIRTUE 10.600.
4 51 THIRSK KISS MY LOVE 7.598.
4 51 THIRSK RAVISH BEAUTY 7 .413.
4 51 THIRSK ALWAYS BLUE 6.746.
5 21 THIRSK NOVAK 14.730.
5 21 THIRSK FOLKLENE 7.205.
5 21 THIRSK THE CHILD OF HALE 6.980


Just a one of as takes forever to do. i believe these ability ratings are better than vdw am i right well lets see but this is every handicap today there is if and buts to them of course as the ability rating just gives the horses to look at i feel.
 
I always like George Bakers Blog as he always gives an honest opinion with Regards his runners . I wish more trainers were as straightforward


“Marsh is Marsh. Bolting up here on his doorstep last week. Today ??? No idea. He might bolt up. He might pull up. He might stand stock still in the stalls. Marsh is Marsh. Good luck Billy…”
Looking at his past records after a win I can see why it is a fingers crossed today . I think it may be a safer option to just watch how MB performs today . The RPR on TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother Table means he is equal to his mark on 73

IMG_0924.jpeg
 
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What i had just done on my paper work here was put a stroke as all the races i have done where there is not all horses in race got at least the six runs with handicap mark like the first race lol but there is a few and that's why the bigger handicaps are more solid no hidden young horses coming in or just in handicaps but should learn a lot today from this. dutching them all has been the easiest way today for trial.
 
"i believe these ability ratings are better than vdw"

But how will you judge, gerry gerry? VDW never, ever suggested backing a horse solely on it ability rating; as he put it, "it is the balance between class [ability], form and the other factors which shows the good things", and we know from his examples that he quite often selected a horse some way down the ratings as indeed he did with his very first, Prominent King. (Which is why the posts one sees from time to time purporting to show what percentage of winners come from the top rated on ability etc show nothing except that the posters don't have much idea about how VDW worked.)
 
I agree with you totally JennyK JennyK i am not judging i just believe what he said for his ability rating was to far fetched for better word that only wins count for ability rating or other wise.
I think that's not even debateable really as to get the true ability rating which i havn't got either and i know why i havn't you would need rate every single run it ran which i believe the big syndicates likely do.
And to have a system to rate those runs to for all runners which i believe i know how to do but not got the time or the ability to do it on pen and paper which is how i work.
And your right it is a piece of all those things to decide a strong bet i would not say words good thing as i don't believe there is such a thing as a good thing.
I think these horses are just start of it but have showed they have the ability to win the race then you start doing all the work to get selections i run out time and way i am doing it don' think i will have time to study the way i do form.
So this is just a trial to see if his ability rating could produce winners standing alone.
These could be a lot better for sure if had time to dig deeper to rate more runs but i cant.
 
I think the class ratings solve a lot of the issues with the ability rating and must be used in conjunction. In the example gerry gerry gave above with the horse finishing 2nd to Frankel with Ability 0 , but has ran in classes avd shown form well above his ability so is obvious the horse has shown good form in high classed races and you’d have to be stupid to ignore it because the ability rating says 0.

When you look at Pegwell Bay for instance his form was consistently above his own Ability rating. VDW mentioned in that article many times others being dropped to low prizes and losing which was a negative and again these were lower than the horses ability rating.

All of Lee’s selections had shown form above their own ability ratings.

When you have a horse with a high ability rating you compare the ability to what class it has been running in recently and it’s odds etc.., a horse with an ability rating of say 500 struggling in last three runs in class 50s etc in the right conditions for the horse most likely isn’t running to the ability rating currently.

VDW put in the brackets of his formula (class ) after the ability rating and I am sure he meant both to be used in conjunction.

Prominent king went under in a race lower than its ability , but the circumstances showed it to be a good performance still looking at the odds and the winner , of course the weight given.

Roushayd didn’t come to the boil until raced to his ability rating which he showed improvement via speed figures , was not in the first three of the market.

So was then dropped in class , was now in the the first three of the market and came from the highest class of the first three in the market a point VDW pushed forward in systematic betting.

VDW gave an explanation in the class form evaluation article and he mentioned on the lines of a premier league football player scoring goals against a pub team is showing form but it is not that impressive .

How do we give a horse a level to measure against like an Olympic athlete or a premier football player - he gave an ability rating ( why did he call it Ability rating not just a class rating )

He then brought in the class of race the horse has been running in and mentioned when he is saying a horse is dropping in class he is measuring against a rating made in the same way.

That’s just my thoughts anyway !
 
In the very same letter VDW first explained his Ability Rating he ended it with this >>
Screenshot 2026-09-14 at 16.43.03.png
Several warnings in there including finding ways to find the ability of a horse who has not won, minor modifications for the flat and clarification that it's not a system bound by rules but a methodical approach which has to be applied with know how and expertise.
 
Well just take that last race there just finished it would have been my biggest profit race of the day with the prices.
Yet i had wrote at the race later on major doubt because there was a 3yold with only 3 handicap runs and my four are leading with furlong to go looks all over winner no matter and the 3yold comes through wins.
i had said to AI this morning i should have watched for horses who cant be valuated right for lack of handicap form an bites me so always learning to adjust slightly.
The bigger handicaps will give clearer form just like today my biggest rating was king of berkshire by some way infact parisan scholar was second biggest one two in that race.
I just done them all to see what's what today.
I done three tonight at kempton to all with doubts.
 
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