Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
I remember VDW replying to F. Chester, where he states..
"I am at variance with the views expressed by F Chester and i quote 'Ability has peaks & troughs. Whats more a horses
ability fades in due course'
Usually ability will remain static, fluctuate slightly, progress steadily upwards or rise sharply. Ability cannot eventually fade, this
is tantamount to saying a horses victory will in due course be regarded as a second and so on down until eventually
it will be established as never to have been in the race at all"
But Later VDW seems to contradict this view with the following regarding weight & Master Smudge allotted 11st 11lb
for the grand national...
Barrow (trainer) said "it's too much weight and it really is time the handicapper let him off the hook. He's still remembering the
horses Gold Cup win in 1980 but that was a while ago now"
to Me, these two views seem contrary.
"I am at variance with the views expressed by F Chester and i quote 'Ability has peaks & troughs. Whats more a horses
ability fades in due course'
Usually ability will remain static, fluctuate slightly, progress steadily upwards or rise sharply. Ability cannot eventually fade, this
is tantamount to saying a horses victory will in due course be regarded as a second and so on down until eventually
it will be established as never to have been in the race at all"
But Later VDW seems to contradict this view with the following regarding weight & Master Smudge allotted 11st 11lb
for the grand national...
Barrow (trainer) said "it's too much weight and it really is time the handicapper let him off the hook. He's still remembering the
horses Gold Cup win in 1980 but that was a while ago now"
to Me, these two views seem contrary.
JennyK
Gelding
The only reasonable interpretation of VDW's otherwise clearly incorrect view is that he was referring to a horse's ability RATING, which often follows the patterns he described. There can be no doubt whatsoever that in real world terms horses' ability, like ours, decreases over time - the need is to work out a way of assessing likely current ability where there are objective reasons for believing that has happened. On the Flat, apart from the occasional horse whose ability rating is based on an out-of-the-ordinary prize money win as a 2yo or 3yo, regression in performance sometimes seems to show with some 5yos and increasingly with horses older than that. But with careful handling horses like Copper Knight and Aberama Gold can still win quite valuable handicaps as 8yos and older, so one needs to be cautious when judging the extent to which to adjust their ratings.
JennyK
Gelding
re the above,
R
rave154, Apollo One, in yesterday's Portland, is a good illustration.
Now an 8yo, he hasn't won a decent handicap since 2022, but he won a £48,000 non-handicap in 2024 and was second in last year's Portland. As recently as this August he came 4th in the £69,500 handicap Air Force One won.
Since his 2nd in the 2025 Portland, off 102, and another decent performance in his next race, he has been dropped steadily by the Official Handicapper and yesterday ran off 90. He may be dropped another pound or two for that.
Given his record, I didn't, and obviously still don't, see him as worth his current AR of 238 and 7th ranking on ability in yesterday's race, but judging what would be a reasonable current AR and therefore ranking, isn't at all easy. And in finishing 8th, and from the Post's comment perhaps a little unlucky not to have been 7th, his AR ranking and placing more or less matched.
Now an 8yo, he hasn't won a decent handicap since 2022, but he won a £48,000 non-handicap in 2024 and was second in last year's Portland. As recently as this August he came 4th in the £69,500 handicap Air Force One won.
Since his 2nd in the 2025 Portland, off 102, and another decent performance in his next race, he has been dropped steadily by the Official Handicapper and yesterday ran off 90. He may be dropped another pound or two for that.
Given his record, I didn't, and obviously still don't, see him as worth his current AR of 238 and 7th ranking on ability in yesterday's race, but judging what would be a reasonable current AR and therefore ranking, isn't at all easy. And in finishing 8th, and from the Post's comment perhaps a little unlucky not to have been 7th, his AR ranking and placing more or less matched.
Chesham
Sire
Some good questions about Abilty got the old brain box going .
Perhaps keep an eye how each runner has performed when in the Top 3 Ability Rank in the races that they have competed in.
Yesterday Thunder Run aught my attention after the race had been run and I did not analyse the race before it was run. I was just researching something else and this was one of the races during my research
Anyway this morning checked to see how the Horse has performed when in the Top 3 Ranked on Ability (ONLYSIS UK and Irish considered for Ability Ratings
Another measure as a back up could be The RPR ratings V OR
Another race not analysed by myself but because of the above thought I would check out how Airforce One performed when in the Ranked on Ability ( only UK and Irish Races used for Ability Ratings)
Perhaps keep an eye how each runner has performed when in the Top 3 Ability Rank in the races that they have competed in.
Yesterday Thunder Run aught my attention after the race had been run and I did not analyse the race before it was run. I was just researching something else and this was one of the races during my research
Anyway this morning checked to see how the Horse has performed when in the Top 3 Ranked on Ability (ONLYSIS UK and Irish considered for Ability Ratings
Another measure as a back up could be The RPR ratings V OR
Another race not analysed by myself but because of the above thought I would check out how Airforce One performed when in the Ranked on Ability ( only UK and Irish Races used for Ability Ratings)