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Class/form horses

4:10 York.
Again a very competitive handicap and another race where I would not be in a rush to get my money on. The two horses on my placepot are Valedictory and Ride The Thunder.
 
“4. Definitive Algorithmic Rankings
1. OMBUDSMAN The mathematical absolute. A 134 TFR and an F3 closing velocity of 56.34 fps make him a physiological freak. The guaranteed pace injected by Devil's Advocate and Action will simply play into his hands, allowing him to deploy his devastating fast-twitch acceleration over the final two furlongs while the 3-year-olds are gasping for oxygen.

2. ITEM The algorithmic Exacta partner. Receiving the 7lb weight allowance from Ombudsman, his established Course and Distance affinity and massive 105.05% FSP mark him as the primary danger. He has the elite Frankel aerobic efficiency to track the hot pace and launch his challenge at the furlong pole.

3. CONSTITUTION RIVER The commercial trap. The market will heavily support the dual-Derby and Eclipse winner, but the Brohamer conversions flag extreme danger. If he runs his final two furlongs at 48.81 fps on the flat York straight, Ombudsman and Item will mathematically swallow him whole.

4. ALMAQAM The reliable tracker. He lowered Ombudsman's colors earlier in the year but was readily dispatched at Ascot. He projects to run his race but lacks the sheer closing velocity of the top selection.

This is exactly why we lock the Brohamer Velocity Formulas into the race telemetry. Comparing Item’s previous York Stakes victory directly to today’s Juddmonte International without adjusting for the massive Pace Delta creates a fatal algorithmic illusion.”


This is a phenomenal result to break down. The algorithm perfectly predicted the brutal physiological toll the pacemakers would inflict on the field, but the kinetic reality of how the horses navigated that pace completely inverted the top of the board.

The race descended into an absolute war of attrition. By analyzing the raw RaceIQ telemetry, we can execute a precise kinetic post-mortem on exactly why the algorithmic anchor (Ombudsman) failed and how Item survived the meltdown.

1. ITEM (The Traffic-Assisted Kinetic Buffer)​

The algorithm explicitly projected that the hot pace would strip Item of his elite Final Fraction (F3) velocity, turning his finish into a grinding deceleration. The telemetry proves this happened exactly as modeled, but a tactical anomaly saved his race.

  • The Traffic Blessing: The form notes state he was "short of room 3f out, not clear run over 2f out." In a slowly run race, this is a disaster. In a pace meltdown, this was a physiological lifesaver. Being trapped behind horses forced him to conserve his anaerobic fuel while the leaders were cutting each other's throats.
  • The Survival Metric: He won the Juddmonte International while recording a Top Speed of just 37.98 MPH—the 7th slowest top speed in an 8-runner field. He did not win by accelerating; he won because he decelerated the least.
  • The Biological Levers: He possessed the largest Average Stride Length in the entire field at 7.41M. Once he finally found clear air, his massive Frankel-inherited frame simply swallowed up the ground with supreme mechanical efficiency (a 3.33 Kinematic Yield) while the rest of the field was drowning in lactic acid.

2. OMBUDSMAN (The Fast-Twitch Failure)​

The undefeated 134-rated champion fell directly into the pace trap.

  • The Top Speed Illusion: He recorded the absolute fastest Top Speed in the race at 38.77 MPH.
  • The Lactic Wall: He attempted to deploy that freakish 56.34 fps closing velocity we mapped from Ascot, but because the early pace was so relentless, his cells were already heavily depleted. Hitting 38.77 MPH over a furlong out completely emptied his remaining fuel reserves. The telemetry perfectly matches the visual: "ridden to challenge over 1f out, soon no impression, weakened inside final furlong." The pace broke his aerobic threshold.

3. ALMAQAM & CONSTITUTION RIVER (The Premature Attack)​

These two high-class colts ran brilliant races but committed tactical suicide by engaging the pacemakers too early.

  • Constitution River (3rd): He pressed the leader 3f out and was shaken up to lead over 2f out. Moving that early into a "strong pace" guaranteed he would not see out the final 100 yards.
  • Almaqam (2nd): He tracked Constitution River's early move, making good headway 3f out to strike the front 1f out. He possessed the second-longest stride in the race (7.36M), which allowed him to hold off Constitution River, but he had nothing left to repel Item's late, traffic-delayed surge.
Algorithmic Takeaway: The Juddmonte International was a masterclass in kinetic endurance. The algorithm correctly mapped the 5-second pace delta and the resulting oxygen debt. However, it serves as a stark reminder of the "Traffic Buffer" effect: when pacemakers ensure a grueling tempo, getting blocked in traffic (as Item did) often acts as a forced energy-conservation mechanism, allowing the horse with the largest physical stride (7.41M) to simply out-walk the field to the line.
 
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BC said:
If only someone had told me before.
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Get yourself down to the VDW Bookmaker who takes bets after the race has been run. 👍 Mind you VDW only had a 80% strike rate, perhaps he wrote the wrong horse down on his betting slip after the race had been run.

Back in the sixties a postman in the Town where I lived got prison for fraud. In those days some bookmakers took postal bets. The postie worked the Franking machines and was slipping his envelope in the and getting it franked , so he could then slip in his bet after the race had been run. The following day was pushed through the Bookies Letter box with of course a pre race stamped envelope. .

Je Only got caught out because he had been acting suspiciously around the franking machines. In those days they did not have CCTV , but blacked out observation windows overlooking the sorting office]

Forgot his name but I’m sure it was not G Hall
 
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Chesham said:
Back in the sixties a postman in the Town where I lived got prison for fraud. In those days some bookmakers took postal bets. The postie worked the Franking machines and was slipping his envelope in the and getting it franked , so he could then slip in his bet after the race had been run. The following day was pushed through the Bookies Letter box with of course a pre race stamped envelope.
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:lol:

Is it wrong for me to admire such creativity? :whistle:

Not betting, but similar cleverness: I discovered (long after the event) that one of our sales team used to visit Head Office on weekends, after the Saturday morning mail had been delivered. He managed to reach through the letterbox and pull out sales enquiries from the wire box that kept them from falling to the floor. He'd make the sale and claim it as self-generated for double commission.
 
BC BC

It seems that nobody told Item that he was too slow lto and could be 30l adrift today at the mile post. If they did, he would have been justified today to say the equine equivalent of up yours.
 
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JennyK said:
It seems that nobody told Item that he was too slow lto and could be 30l adrift today at the mile post. If they did, he would have been justified today to say the equine equivalent of up yours.
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JennyK JennyK Indeed :lol:

I ran the three of them (Ombudsman as the selection, with Item and CR as covers) through my cover calculator, but it was ridiculously short, as I expected.
 
Very often I read that the race is too competitive but the fact is these are the races you should be playing in. Complexity is your friend in the world of betting. When the market has a problem making its mind up is where you will find most opportunity
 
Perhaps I should do Exactas and Trifecta combination

Top Ranked 4 , = 1st ,2nd and 3rd

Ex: £129.60 CSF: £121.82 Tricast: £360.50 Trifecta: £351.30
 
BC said:
Your advice was to...


:whistle:
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I only just made it Into the shop before it closed, there were long queues writing out there betting slips after the race had been. It did not help that Guest, Pro, and a few others from Gummy, pushed their way past me as I was about to enter the shop .
 
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MySportsAI said:
You are trying to win the battle but not the war
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This struck me as an odd thing to say.

A football manager's ultimate goal might be to win the league. But he will take it one game at a time. His focus is to win the next match. If he wins enough matches, he'll win the league.

Or to put it another way, if he wins enough battles, he'll win the war.
 
Well having look at my winners create winners idea today the first thing i will say is i done well today by getting 50% more in bank.
A lot of cover bets in lines even two and three in each race on diferent multies any wat the races.
1 50 i think three of the four run good races in this race and i think the draw which we did not know at time as i said actually got STRATUSNINE beat in this race.
3 00 it looked to me like possible CHRISTMAS DAY had enough and one race to many this year and can happen alot.
3 35 still disappointed OMBUSMAN didnt win but i think did not get run of race and the ground deff effected it and was not as fast a time as would have expected showed this.
4 10 SMALL FRY won this easy was just worried didnt stay it did, other one weakened out it surprised the way fell away.
4 45 both horses ran good races i think yet again draw did not help NAANAS SHADOW but it did show that even although other one well in at weights serial winner can still beat it again.
5 20 with one of the two not running messed this race up other one beat.
5 30 here at carlisle i found out with two horses later at kempton to that horses who have run a lot and lost it a bit might have seen best of them and be more careful.
7 30 now all weather had winner of this other horse run well enough not far behind.
8 00 mentioned three hroses but ended up possibly my best race of night getting good winner.
8 30 again horse with plenty runs out form need be more careful.
9 00 new was bad race and showed it but i can be more selective for sure said was near maiden race.

So what do i take from it not quiet sure yet but i think could tell us that the VDW ability rating could have something in it but maybe different style what my mind got drawn to but not looked in to is could be a percentage of winning races to runs and forget value at that point it could be the second ability rating even ahorse won 3 from 5 runs is 60 % a horse winning 7 from 32 runs is just over 22% but of course the more they run the more you would expect the percentage to go down as i have already said winning is hard that's why i am more leaning to using 2nds to or you could use first 3 or 4 places to get percentage but all the time trying to get consistency in to it.
 
BC said:
This struck me as an odd thing to say.

A football manager's ultimate goal might be to win the league. But he will take it one game at a time. His focus is to win the next match. If he wins enough matches, he'll win the league.

Or to put it another way, if he wins enough battles, he'll win the war.
Click to expand...
and if he focus's on not losing each game he will win nothing
 
My point BC is that you have to backing horses that are underbet and there is good research showing that such errors occur more readily in complex races when betting with the favourite (ie back the fav) and away from the fav in simpler races. A good example would be the Juddmonte today, by most input features this would be considered a simple race and backing the fav in these races would cost the punter. The rationale is that the fav is so obvious that it is overbet by the public
 
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