Class/form horses

[gerry]

Seems a lot of races mentioned above of racing i like today so hoping for nice winners along way here mine. Lets get profit.
3 45 BEVERLEY AMERICAN BAY.
4 15 BEVERLEY MR MOONSHINE.
4 45 BEVERLEY DUMFRIES.
5 30 SALISBURY DECALOGUE.
7 34 SALISBURY GREEN SKY.
8 04 SALISBURY AKHO MEZZNA.
5 36 WINDSOR SOLAR INVINCABLE.
6 11 WINDSOR METHGAL.
6 41 WINDSOR MAGICAL MERLOT.
7 41 WINDSOR AULD TOON LOON.
8 17 WINDSOR IMPOSSIBLE MISSION.

 

[Leodis]

19.41 Wnd

The shortlist:
Auld Toon Loon
City Of Poets
A Major Payne
Law Court

The two that are well handicapped are Auld Toon Loon, a 7yo who won here last year and City of Poets. The latter, I think may have stamina issues at this distance.

ATL is the pick, but the pace suitability looks touch and go for it. However, I reckon a dutched win/place is worth a shout.

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

Horse​	RPR​	RPR​	Class​	Ability​	Adj RPR​	Final URM​
Call To Action​	78​	80​	2​	53​	92​	145​
Holbache​	77​	64​	2​	48​	74​	122​
Castan​	82​	69​	2​	51​	75​	126​
American Bay​	81​	75​	3​	53​	81​	134​
Good Earth​	77​	72​	2​	50​	80​	130​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Ventura Express​	96​	76​	3​	58​	85​	143​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Shazani​	78​	78​	2​	53​	88​	141​
Infinity Blue​	81​	44​	2​	42​	59​	101​
Jojo Robert​	73​	66​	2​	47​	81​	128​
Opal Storm​	63​	46​	2​	37​	69​	106​

1st and 2nd in my top 3

 

[Tufnel]

Can't believe I didn't notice Saxon Grace was running again today.

Probably because I skipped the low class stuff.

 

[Chesham]

Looks like Decalogue is going to be withdrawn

 

[Chesham]

They should abandon this race. They have been in the sun for 20 minutes

 

[Chesham]

Good new Decalogue looks to be ok

 

[Tufnel]

Good new Decalogue looks to be ok

Yes, looked a bit of a disaster when he got stuck in the stalls. Good his ok.

Sydney Rock obviously given way too much to do and was the only horse to actually run on and make up a lot of ground. Clearly that last run was not a fluke.

 

[Chesham]

Yes, looked a bit of a disaster when he got stuck in the stalls. Good his ok.

Sydney Rock obviously given way too much to do and was the only horse to actually run on and make up a lot of ground. Clearly that last run was not a fluke.

Post Mortem

It is always a massive relief when a horse walks away from a scary stalls incident like that, but you are absolutely right—dodging that race was a fantastic decision. Pre-race chaos of that magnitude completely tears up the script, and the resulting non-runner would have wreaked havoc on any Dutching math you had set up.

Looking at the RaceIQ data you provided, the contrast between the winner and the runner-up tells the entire story of the race:

• The Winner (No. 4): This race was won at the break. Hitting 20mph in just 2.42s (ranked 1st), No. 4 completely blitzed the start. From there, they didn't even need to hit a massive top speed (ranking 5th at 38.10mph), because they were able to settle into a very efficient, ground-covering rhythm (2nd in Average Stride Length at 7.04m).
• The Runner-Up (No. 2 - 11/8f): A classic case of a massive engine completely compromised by a terrible start. Being dead last to 20mph (3.21s) left them with too much to do. They possess incredible mechanics—ranking 1st in Minimum, Average (7.19m), and Maximum Stride Length—but you cannot concede that much early ground to a horse that breaks flawlessly.
• Third Place (No. 1): This runner had to work incredibly hard. They hit the highest Top Speed in the field (39.06mph) and had the fastest leg turnover (1st in Avg Frequency at 2.36 SPS), but their stride length was short (6th in Avg Length at 6.87m). They were spinning their wheels to try and close the gap.

Ultimately, No. 4 secured a tactical free pass on the front end, rendering the runner-up's massive stride length moot by the finish line.

 

[Leodis]

I have been trying this for a while and it is working well .
So i take the best RPR the horse has achieved in Column 1 then i take the lto run in C2.
The class then is just a point for each class C6= 1 C5= 2 etc they are then divided giving me the ability score in C4.
i then adj the RPR giving me Their potential today C6 which is then added to Final URM C7.
Now it will probably work with any ratings its just how you want to use them.

If we look at todays Ability you will see there are 7 runners in the 50s so that would be the starting area any below can be eliminated .
If we now look at the Final URM again we see 4 horses in the 140 range Eliminate the rest .
From ther the look at the ADJ RPR which Gives me Call To Action.

Although VE has a higher ability he has a slightly lower Adj RPR

Unless I have misunderstood your post, wouldn't it be more logical to make the class number 'as is' if you are dividing the Rpr by it?

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

Unless I have misunderstood your post, wouldn't it be more logical to make the class number 'as is' if you are dividing the Rpr by it?

Regards

Hi Leodis the Class is divided with the hiatoric RPR and the recent RPR with the recent class run to make my ability number