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Class/form horses

Post Mortem

Result Analysis: 3.00 Salisbury​

Another outstanding execution for the Green Book Dutching strategy! Supreme King landed the spoils at an SP of 4/1(and taken at a Betfair line of 5.7), delivering a clean hit for the book.

TXT


The Green Book Breakdown​

  • Winner: Supreme King (1st at 4/1 | BSP 5.7) – DUTCH HIT

    TXT

  • 2nd: Dandana (18/1) – 1¼ lengths back
    TXT

  • 3rd: So Darn Hot (13/8f) – Neck back
    TXT

  • 4th: Regional Rock (5/1)
    TXT

  • 5th: Dr Strangelove (6/1)
    TXT

Key Metric & Stride Data Insights​

  1. The False Favorite Defeated (So Darn Hot – 3rd at 13/8f):
    • Speed Deficit: Despite carrying favoritism, his top speed was the slowest in the entire field at 38.53 mph (7th).
      TXT

    • Weight Factor: The heavy 10-0 burden combined with a +2.5 kg Degree of Difficulty step-up told inside the final furlong. He simply could not match the late acceleration of lighter-weighted rivals.
      TXT+ 1
  2. Supreme King’s Winning Mechanics (1st at 4/1):
    • Cadence Dominance: Supreme King posted the #1 Average Stride Frequency (2.45 SPS) in the field. His rapid, rhythm-bound stride cadence allowed him to maintain continuous momentum up the Salisbury straight without burning out.
      TXT+ 1

    • FormScore Validation: His top-rated FormScore (PR 280) and Course & Distance winning profile proved 100% accurate.
      TXT
  3. Dandana’s Front-Running Display (2nd at 18/1):
    • Early Acceleration: Recorded the #1 0–20 mph time (2.45s) and the #1 Top Speed (39.42 mph) in the race. She broke fast and set a blistering early tempo, but carrying 9-9 meant she just ran out of petrol late against Supreme King (9-2).
      TXT+ 1
  4. Regional Rock (4th at 5/1):
    • Stride Length: Registered the #1 Average Stride Length (7.30m). However, a slow start (2.91s 0–20 mph, 5th) left him with too much turf to make up in a tactical Class 3 environment.
      TXT+ 1

Financial Return & Bankroll Ledger Update​

The 10.00 Point stake on Bankroll 2 (Green Dutch) returned 22.34 Points via Supreme King, generating a net profit of +12.34 Points on the race.
 
JennyK said:
T Tufnel

Since the excellent sprint handicap on Monday I have found only two very obvious VDW class/form horses, Another Investment yesterday and So Darn Hot today. Both top within their fields on VDW's ability rating and unquestionably "form" horses. BUT both in different ways flawed and left from the betting point of view. If I looked at races over non-sprint distances I am sure there would have been others, maybe one or two worth backing, but time is not unlimited.

While the VDW class/form horse can often be quite easily found by using an everyday view of what constitutes "form" (though by no means always), what I think is not sufficiently appreciated is VDW's comment that he only backed <20% of horses he thought potential winners. Finding the class/form horse is an important step in an analysis but certainly not the last.

After So Darn Hot's race my racing pal emailed me, including the following:

"It almost feels like a win when we show a bit of discipline when something doesn't quite feel right...."

and he is spot on. Obviously, if one doesn't bet there is no possibility of profit. But avoiding a loser means no loss, and as well as showing the positives, VDW's approach also shows the question marks and negatives and thus keeps one from backing many losers.

re the ability rating, my Excel application is currently set up to show five different ones; the basic VDW one (career win prize money divided by number of races won), the same for just the current year's wins and for each of the previous two, and a version of the first based solely on handicaps. I use the first as one of the two basics of an analysis (the other, obviously, VDW's "form" rating). But I would not substitute any (or any combination) of the ancillary ability ratings for the basic one. I use them just to throw light on the basic rating. For example, if a horse has no ability rating for the current year or 2025, it prompts the question is his or her basic ability rating misleading? If a horse has a high basic rating but a low one based on handicaps alone, is it because (like Dilgently earlier this week) it won some ultra-valuable non-handicap a year or two ago and has shown nothing much in handicap company since? One has to be very careful in adjusting the basic rating for ranking purposes, and I very nearly came a cropper with Diligently, but I think the variants of the basic ability rating are helpful often enough to keep the data in my main Excel grid.
Click to expand...
I'm curious as to the form status for So Darn Hot.

He was dropped a long way in class last time from both previous runs without showing significant improvement, in my view.

I didn't bet in the race, but it was the first one I looked at last night and the horse that caught my eye was another dropped in class today, from a higher value race than SDH where not only was he fav but was carrying 8 lb less today.

Ultimately I passed on the race as there were several down in class.

I just don't really get how horses with recent form such as SDH are form horses, even in the face of a class drop today.

Weight given to winner last time vs lengths beaten perhaps?
 
T Tufnel

Part of VDW's "form" status rating method, if of course I've got it right, is considering the class of each horse's last three runs against that of the current race. So Darn Hot dropped in class lto a long way from his previous two, and that (the last race) was still a much higher class one than yesterday's. Bearing in mind how SDH performed in each, the judgement narrowed to the question was the last performance a "form" run in the context of yesterday's? The answer would be yes, irrespective of SDH's weight vis-a-vis Amazing Journey.
 
Last edited:
If I have it correct SDH did not show tell tale improvement (Roushayd) in its 2nd LTO Race . Also very different to the Desert Orchid example for following a form cycle. (Although it was a NH example)

Also its ADV was not exactly screaming form

ADV Average Advantage figure. Shows + or - For/Against figure averaged over


number of race starts. Eg. +2.5 means this horse on average beats 2.5 more


horses home per run than beats it.
 
Last edited:
JennyK said:
T Tufnel

Part of VDW's "form" status rating method, if of course I've got it right, is considering the class of each horse's last three runs against that of the current race. So Darn Hot dropped in class lto a long way from his previous two, and that (the last race) was still a much higher class one than yesterday's. Bearing in mind how SDH performed in each, the judgement narrowed to the question was the last performance a "form" run in the context of yesterday's? The answer would be yes, irrespective of SDH's weight vis-a-vis Amazing Journey.
Click to expand...
Ok thanks for the elaboration on that.

I think where we differ is I see VDW’s examples displaying an establishment of form status at some point in their last three races, but once it’s established it needs a special reason to overlook a seemingly poor effort. And yes I agree this is all relative to the class of race it is entered in.

But in cases where all 3 or even the last 2 runs are in higher class, it needs a much closer finish to establish the form status and dropping in class and not showing a closer finish wouldn’t initiate a form status.

Also, with that in mind, I’ve taken the view that if such a three race profile as SDH’s doesn’t lead one to think him a decent probable then there doesn’t seem any point in putting him in the form horse group and clouding the picture due to his AR. Otherwise this leads to a lot of misleading class/form runners.

But I don’t know for sure on this. We can only go on what he said or implied by selection what a form horse is. Though also of course looking at the rest of the field to see what a form horse probably isn’t, especially if it had a higher AR than most.

Basically I’m starting at 3rd last run and going forward to find a form trigger and then seeing if it’s maintained.

Once established going up in class and beyond today’s race class, wouldn’t eradicate the form status. But for me it has to be established and maintained once flagged.

Interesting seeing how everyone approaches this in different ways.

Its a shame VDW didn’t explicitly explain how he did it.
 
Salisbury 7:34

In my view this shows a clear cut class/form horse in Green Sky with plenty of things going her way. I'm surprised she is only 8 lb higher given the ease with which she has won her races, though I guess the handicapper took the view it was a penalty kick last time when well in.

The form horses as I see them here are, from the top of the card Green Sky, Counter Intuitive, Ruby Wedding, Liveninthelight and Rossa Raheen. With the last 3 of those named all in some way maintaining their form status by way of distance increases in line with this race.

Green Sky has the best form and highest winning class rating and is also the highest on AR of the form horses. In fact she is the highest AR in the field. Her form has been impressive, non more so than the demolition job she dished out her male opponents at York with a subsequent valuable hurdle and decent flat handicap winner in 3rd.

Whilst Salisbury will provide a different test to Newbury or York, she is not a big long striding galloper and seems quite athletic. She also had no worries with Chepstow's undulations and uphill finish, so Salisbury should be just fine for her. And her stamina with an ability to travel and quicken will ensure it will take a good deal of improvement from one of the others to outstay her over this 12 furlongs.

Green Sky looks the bet of the day to me.
 
Hi T Tufnel

Only one race was on my list today and that was because Decalogue was identified on Tuesday as being better than the BHA handicappers revised rating.

Ext stage for me is to evaluate the Race that the Trainer has chosen. Decalogue has today’s entry in the Salisbury 5.30 (Also has a Handicap Race entry tomorrow)

Even before I started it looks a potential minefield when you look at the Race Conditions

Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Apprentice Handicap (Whips To Be Carried, But Not Used) (Part Of Racing Excellence)

Key Metric Analysis & Applied Indicators​

  1. Market Distortion & False Favorites: The front of this market is incredibly weak and severely compressed, completely violating the 9/2 tissue pricing parameters:
    • Kimeko Glory (15/8): She frequently over-races and fails to see out her races, notably pushing to the lead before fading in her recent starts. She carries a negative ADV (-0.26) and a +4.5 kg Degree of Difficulty penalty into this event. Taking 15/8 on this profile is a catastrophic long-term underlay.
      TXT+ 2

    • Sydney Rock (100/30) & Decalogue (9/4): Both are unexposed 3-year-olds who have yet to break their maiden. Sydney Rock faces a massive +20.5 kg DOD hike into this contest, while Decalogue carries a deeply negative -2.20 ADV. Neither runner warrants a true tissue price of 9/2 or shorter against older handicap company.
      TXT+ 2
  2. Average Advantage (ADV) & Class Fluctuation:
    • Zipwire is the only horse in the entire field to hold a positive ADV (+1.18, passing 56 horses while yielding to 36). However, his steep +16.0 kg DOD hike makes him a precarious backing proposition.
      TXT+ 1

    • Amathus benefits from a massive class drop (-8.5 kg DOD) and holds the highest algorithmic FormScore (PR 240) in the race. Despite the favorable setup, the 9-year-old is heavily reliant on late pace collapses (noted by his out-the-back in-running trajectories) and fails to meet the 9/2 tissue threshold.
      TXT+ 3
  3. In-Running Trajectory: A scan of the positional data reveals zero instances of the "two-move" Super Positive Factor across the field's recent starts. Kimeko Glory is likely to set the early tempo (4th → 1st → 1st), but her historical tendency to fade leaves the race shape highly vulnerable.
    TXT+ 1

Execution Protocol: Strict Pass​

This is a textbook "trap race." The top three horses in the betting market are all mathematically false favorites lacking the form, class metrics, or ADV to justify their short prices. Consequently, no runner in the field qualifies for a true tissue price of 9/2 or shorter, meaning there are no valid targets for a Green Dutch strategy.

5.30 Salisbury – Expanded Summary Chart (Full Tissue Allocation)​

Thursday, 13th August 2026 | Class 5 Apprentice Handicap | 1m Turf (Good to Firm) | Avg OR: 64 | Median OR: 66

TXT


Master Performance & Statistical Summary Table​

Pos / No. & HorseORTFRPRSJRT %DOD (kg)ADVIn-Running TrajectoryExact Tissue Line (Implied %)Live OddsVerdict
1. Kimeko Glory69
TXT
77
TXT
238
TXT
0% / 0%
TXT
+4.5
TXT
-0.26

TXT
4th → 1st → 1st
TXT+ 1
7/2 (22.2%)15/8
TXT
Severe Underlay(Market overreaction)
3. Decalogue69
TXT
76
TXT
216
TXT
0% / 0%
TXT
+8.0
TXT
-2.20

TXT
6th → 5th → 6th
TXT
4/1 (20.0%)9/4
TXT
Underlay(Unexposed, but terrible price)
2. Sydney Rock70
TXT
80
TXT
188
TXT
0% / 0%
TXT
+20.5
TXT
-0.14

TXT
7th → 7th → 7th
TXT
9/2 (18.1%)100/30
TXT
Underlay (Huge class hike)
6. Amathus54
TXT
61
TXT
240

TXT
11% / 37%
TXT
-8.5

TXT
-0.07

TXT
7th → 8th → 3rd
TXT
11/2 (15.3%)14/1
TXT
Overlay, but > 9/2 Limit (Pass)
4. Thiscouldbefun61
TXT
66
TXT
200
TXT
0% / 11%
TXT
+6.5
TXT
0.00

TXT
3rd → 4th → 3rd
TXT
8/1 (11.1%)8/1
TXT
Fair Price (Pass)
5. Zipwire66
TXT
73
TXT
215
TXT
0% / 0%
TXT
+16.0
TXT
+1.18

TXT
4th → 5th → 5th
TXT
10/1 (9.0%)20/1
TXT
Overlay, but > 9/2 Limit (Pass)
7. Ebn Sabt59
TXT
N/A154
TXT
0% / 0%
TXT
+24.0
TXT
-1.79

TXT
7th → 7th → 7th
TXT
25/1 (3.8%)80/1
TXT
Overlay, but > 9/2 Limit (Pass)

The 100% Book Breakdown & Verdict​

By pricing out the entire field, the combined implied probability of the tissue lines equals 99.5%. This reveals exactly why the race was flagged as an unplayable trap:

  1. The Top End is Crushed: The three horses that mathematically qualify for the 9/2 backing threshold (Kimeko Glory, Decalogue, and Sydney Rock) are heavily over-bet by the public. Backing a true 7/2 shot at 15/8, or a true 9/2 shot at 100/30, guarantees a drained bankroll over time.
    TXT

  2. The Value is Out of Bounds: The horses offering genuine overlays against the live exchange odds (Amathus, Zipwire, and Ebn Sabt) all fall well outside the 9/2 comfort zone. Taking 14/1 on Amathus might look tempting given his class drop, but Rob Morris's discipline dictates that a 15.3% true probability is simply too low to risk backing without suffering intolerable losing streaks.
    TXT


Result: No Bet Race.
 
Salisbury 8:04

All bar On The Inlet are form horses in this 6 runner handicap. Seven Sisters has the highest AR of the form horse on 64, with Sudbury Hill 55, Akho Mezzna 54, Storm Point 49 and Supplicate 48.

There's nothing as clear cut in this race. The 2 fillies Seven Sisters and Supplicate head the market as both have pretty much done in their previous 3 runs.

I'd be fairly confident this is a race to leave alone giving the absence of any outstanding credentials by comparison amongst the form horse.

Technically Seven Sisters is class/form and the rest of the form horses in class/form order of their ARs.
 
Chesham said:
Hi T Tufnel

Only one race was on my list today and that was because Decalogue was identified on Tuesday as being better than the BHA handicappers revised rating.

Ext stage for me is to evaluate the Race that the Trainer has chosen. Decalogue has today’s entry in the Salisbury 5.30 (Also has a Handicap Race entry tomorrow)

Even before I started it looks a potential minefield when you look at the Race Conditions

Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Apprentice Handicap (Whips To Be Carried, But Not Used) (Part Of Racing Excellence)

Key Metric Analysis & Applied Indicators​

  1. Market Distortion & False Favorites:The front of this market is incredibly weak and severely compressed, completely violating the 9/2 tissue pricing parameters:
    • Kimeko Glory (15/8): She frequently over-races and fails to see out her races, notably pushing to the lead before fading in her recent starts. She carries a negative ADV (-0.26) and a +4.5 kg Degree of Difficulty penalty into this event. Taking 15/8 on this profile is a catastrophic long-term underlay.
      TXT+ 2

    • Sydney Rock (100/30) & Decalogue (9/4): Both are unexposed 3-year-olds who have yet to break their maiden. Sydney Rock faces a massive +20.5 kg DOD hike into this contest, while Decalogue carries a deeply negative -2.20 ADV. Neither runner warrants a true tissue price of 9/2 or shorter against older handicap company.
      TXT+ 2
  2. Average Advantage (ADV) & Class Fluctuation:
    • Zipwire is the only horse in the entire field to hold a positive ADV (+1.18, passing 56 horses while yielding to 36). However, his steep +16.0 kg DOD hike makes him a precarious backing proposition.
      TXT+ 1

    • Amathus benefits from a massive class drop (-8.5 kg DOD) and holds the highest algorithmic FormScore (PR 240) in the race. Despite the favorable setup, the 9-year-old is heavily reliant on late pace collapses (noted by his out-the-back in-running trajectories) and fails to meet the 9/2 tissue threshold.
      TXT+ 3
  3. In-Running Trajectory: A scan of the positional data reveals zero instances of the "two-move" Super Positive Factor across the field's recent starts. Kimeko Glory is likely to set the early tempo (4th → 1st → 1st), but her historical tendency to fade leaves the race shape highly vulnerable.
    TXT+ 1

Execution Protocol: Strict Pass​

This is a textbook "trap race." The top three horses in the betting market are all mathematically false favorites lacking the form, class metrics, or ADV to justify their short prices. Consequently, no runner in the field qualifies for a true tissue price of 9/2 or shorter, meaning there are no valid targets for a Green Dutch strategy.

5.30 Salisbury – Expanded Summary Chart (Full Tissue Allocation)​

Thursday, 13th August 2026 | Class 5 Apprentice Handicap | 1m Turf (Good to Firm) | Avg OR: 64 | Median OR: 66

TXT


Master Performance & Statistical Summary Table​

Pos / No. & HorseORTFRPRSJRT %DOD (kg)ADVIn-Running TrajectoryExact Tissue Line (Implied %)Live OddsVerdict
1. Kimeko Glory69
TXT		77
TXT		238
TXT		0% / 0%
TXT		+4.5
TXT		-0.26

TXT		4th → 1st → 1st
TXT+ 1		7/2 (22.2%)15/8
TXT		Severe Underlay(Market overreaction)
3. Decalogue69
TXT		76
TXT		216
TXT		0% / 0%
TXT		+8.0
TXT		-2.20

TXT		6th → 5th → 6th
TXT		4/1 (20.0%)9/4
TXT		Underlay(Unexposed, but terrible price)
2. Sydney Rock70
TXT		80
TXT		188
TXT		0% / 0%
TXT		+20.5
TXT		-0.14

TXT		7th → 7th → 7th
TXT		9/2 (18.1%)100/30
TXT		Underlay (Huge class hike)
6. Amathus54
TXT		61
TXT		240

TXT		11% / 37%
TXT		-8.5

TXT		-0.07

TXT		7th → 8th → 3rd
TXT		11/2 (15.3%)14/1
TXT		Overlay, but > 9/2 Limit (Pass)
4. Thiscouldbefun61
TXT		66
TXT		200
TXT		0% / 11%
TXT		+6.5
TXT		0.00

TXT		3rd → 4th → 3rd
TXT		8/1 (11.1%)8/1
TXT		Fair Price (Pass)
5. Zipwire66
TXT		73
TXT		215
TXT		0% / 0%
TXT		+16.0
TXT		+1.18

TXT		4th → 5th → 5th
TXT		10/1 (9.0%)20/1
TXT		Overlay, but > 9/2 Limit (Pass)
7. Ebn Sabt59
TXT		N/A154
TXT		0% / 0%
TXT		+24.0
TXT		-1.79

TXT		7th → 7th → 7th
TXT		25/1 (3.8%)80/1
TXT		Overlay, but > 9/2 Limit (Pass)

The 100% Book Breakdown & Verdict​

By pricing out the entire field, the combined implied probability of the tissue lines equals 99.5%. This reveals exactly why the race was flagged as an unplayable trap:

  1. The Top End is Crushed: The three horses that mathematically qualify for the 9/2 backing threshold (Kimeko Glory, Decalogue, and Sydney Rock) are heavily over-bet by the public. Backing a true 7/2 shot at 15/8, or a true 9/2 shot at 100/30, guarantees a drained bankroll over time.
    TXT

  2. The Value is Out of Bounds: The horses offering genuine overlays against the live exchange odds (Amathus, Zipwire, and Ebn Sabt) all fall well outside the 9/2 comfort zone. Taking 14/1 on Amathus might look tempting given his class drop, but Rob Morris's discipline dictates that a 15.3% true probability is simply too low to risk backing without suffering intolerable losing streaks.
    TXT


Result: No Bet Race.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree. The no whip use creates a whole set of potential pit falls, but also reading through the form of each runner seems hugely underwhelming.

Sydney Rock would seem the most straightforward (if that's the right term for these runners) and that was a much better run last time suggesting the jockey shouldn't need too much assistance from the whip.

Your list horse clearly has more to offer, as expected from this yard, but if he hangs like last time Ryan's little bro might have a tough time of it.
 
Tufnel said:
Salisbury 7:34

In my view this shows a clear cut class/form horse in Green Sky with plenty of things going her way. I'm surprised she is only 8 lb higher given the ease with which she has won her races, though I guess the handicapper took the view it was a penalty kick last time when well in.

The form horses as I see them here are, from the top of the card Green Sky, Counter Intuitive, Ruby Wedding, Liveninthelight and Rossa Raheen. With the last 3 of those named all in some way maintaining their form status by way of distance increases in line with this race.

Green Sky has the best form and highest winning class rating and is also the highest on AR of the form horses. In fact she is the highest AR in the field. Her form has been impressive, non more so than the demolition job she dished out her male opponents at York with a subsequent valuable hurdle and decent flat handicap winner in 3rd.

Whilst Salisbury will provide a different test to Newbury or York, she is not a big long striding galloper and seems quite athletic. She also had no worries with Chepstow's undulations and uphill finish, so Salisbury should be just fine for her. And her stamina with an ability to travel and quicken will ensure it will take a good deal of improvement from one of the others to outstay her over this 12 furlongs.

Green Sky looks the bet of the day to me.
Click to expand...
Had a look for a bot of fun from a Trends Analysis

IMG_0703.jpegIMG_0704.jpeg
IMG_0706.jpeg
6 y-o is one from one if in the Top 3 odds so can’t rule our Green Sky
IMG_0705.jpeg

If you want a fun Dutch

Here is the exact Dutching distribution using a 10-point total stake.

The math uses the same optimal back odds from your data (the highest prices in the third blue column) to guarantee an equal return across the top three.

SelectionOddsStakeReturnNet Profit
Green Sky3.34.11 pts13.56 pts+3.56 pts
Counter Intuitive4.03.39 pts13.56 pts+3.56 pts
Ruby Wedding5.42.50 pts13.50 pts+3.50 pts

(Note: Returns vary fractionally due to two-decimal rounding).

This gives you a guaranteed profit of just over 3.5 points if any of these three cross the line first, while leaving a 10-point red position on the rest of the field.
 
Windsor 7:41

Interesting because of the form horses in this race. Auld Toon Loon showed form 3 runs back but has since been raised in class a lot his next runs, going from 10k to 61k and then 101k races.

For me that means he hasn't lost that form status from the 3rd last race because the races were much higher than today's. As it happens he alos showed some improvement from the 2nd to last run when raised in class.

Law Court also established a form status 3 runs back, went up a bit in class and ran a close 2nd then went up a lot in class and beaten 3.25 lengths at 11/1 in a big field handicap won by a class dropper (and a confident bet for me on the day).

And Parlando had been running down the field in higher class before dropped to win last time in a class of race very close to this. I would class the yard as a gambling yard or to put another way, one where strange things seem to happen some times with their handicappers. I make him a form horse today.

Which leaves Parlando class/form and Auld Toon Loon 2nd class/form. But there's clearly conflict in this race and nothing stands out in my view and there are other form horses in the race who are capable at this level.

One to leave.
 
Horse​
RPR​
RPR​
Class​
Ability​
Adj RPR​
Final URM​
Call To Action​
78​
80​
2​
53​
92​
145​
Holbache​
77​
64​
2​
48​
74​
122​
Castan​
82​
69​
2​
51​
75​
126​
American Bay​
81​
75​
3​
53​
81​
134​
Good Earth​
77​
72​
2​
50​
80​
130​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
Ventura Express​
96​
76​
3​
58​
85​
143​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
Shazani​
78​
78​
2​
53​
88​
141​
Infinity Blue​
81​
44​
2​
42​
59​
101​
Jojo Robert​
73​
66​
2​
47​
81​
128​
Opal Storm​
63​
46​
2​
37​
69​
106​
 
Last edited:
Chesham said:
Had a look for a bot of fun from a Trends Analysis

View attachment 170450View attachment 170453
View attachment 170454
6 y-o is one from one if in the Top 3 odds so can’t rule our Green Sky
View attachment 170455

If you want a fun Dutch

Here is the exact Dutching distribution using a 10-point total stake.

The math uses the same optimal back odds from your data (the highest prices in the third blue column) to guarantee an equal return across the top three.

SelectionOddsStakeReturnNet Profit
Green Sky3.34.11 pts13.56 pts+3.56 pts
Counter Intuitive4.03.39 pts13.56 pts+3.56 pts
Ruby Wedding5.42.50 pts13.50 pts+3.50 pts

(Note: Returns vary fractionally due to two-decimal rounding).

This gives you a guaranteed profit of just over 3.5 points if any of these three cross the line first, while leaving a 10-point red position on the rest of the field.
Click to expand...
It's a strange one with Green Sky, because she's been around for a long time with different trainers and def showed ability with Joseph, but even Pipe couldn't get much out of her.

I think too much use was made of her in a lot of those runs, and being held up now has been a startling transformation.

Clearly the move to Rod Millman's and the little rest has sparked something, but it's almost like she's a completely different horse now. She hasn't just won her 3 races, she's travelled well in all of them, made eye catching moves in the last few furlongs and swept on by the opposition and run on strongly to the line.

I honestly expected her to be around 5/4 in this today.

Maybe I'm delusional and got it wrong. But when mares improve they tend to keep going for a while.
 
I have been trying this for a while and it is working well .
So i take the best RPR the horse has achieved in Column 1 then i take the lto run in C2.
The class then is just a point for each class C6= 1 C5= 2 etc they are then divided giving me the ability score in C4.
i then adj the RPR giving me Their potential today C6 which is then added to Final URM C7.
Now it will probably work with any ratings its just how you want to use them.

If we look at todays Ability you will see there are 7 runners in the 50s so that would be the starting area any below can be eliminated .
If we now look at the Final URM again we see 4 horses in the 140 range Eliminate the rest .
From ther the look at the ADJ RPR which Gives me Call To Action.

Although VE has a higher ability he has a slightly lower Adj RPR
 
​
RPR​
RPR​
Class​
Ability​
ADJ RPR​
Final URM​
1941 Win​
Auld Toon Loon​
103​
97​
5​
68​
102​
170​
​
Kings Code​
99​
95​
5​
66​
93​
159​
​
City Of Poets​
99​
86​
5​
63​
87​
150​
​
Box To Box​
94​
98​
4​
65​
105​
170​
​
Parlando​
90​
90​
3​
61​
100​
161​
​
A Major Payne​
91​
91​
3​
62​
98​
160​
​
Law Court​
91​
88​
4​
61​
102​
163​
​
Bold Impact​
83​
83​
3​
56​
93​
149​
​
 
Tufnel said:
Yes, I agree. The no whip use creates a whole set of potential pit falls, but also reading through the form of each runner seems hugely underwhelming.

Sydney Rock would seem the most straightforward (if that's the right term for these runners) and that was a much better run last time suggesting the jockey shouldn't need too much assistance from the whip.

Your list horse clearly has more to offer, as expected from this yard, but if he hangs like last time Ryan's little bro might have a tough time of it.
Click to expand...

When the BHA Revised Ratings that come out on Tuesdays I pick the best Race or Races from the individual Meeting . I am looking for races where the Standard Per Furlong stands out. The best fro this meeting was the 1st Race and the one that Decalogue was in. ​

Only this week Once a race has been chosen to examine the results further I consulted TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother Figures for the same meeting and a useful cross reference

IMG_0687.jpeg

​



MARS Threshold Assessment​

RaceClassWinnerTDIFF (Target: ≤ -0.15s)RSSF TriggerStatus
🔴 1Class 5Stormy Music+0.10s
TXT		100.7 (Target > 88)
TXT		TRIGGER (Severe Class-Breaker)
2Class 5 (2yo)Woodhay Wayfarer+0.18s
TXT		96.0
TXT		Discard (Juvenile Rule)
3Class 4 (2yo)Crown And Two+0.45s
TXT		83.8
TXT		Discard (Juvenile Rule)
4Class 4Cerro Blanco+0.55s
TXT		80.2 (Target > 97)
TXT		Discard
5Class 4High Fibre+0.03s
TXT		-734.7
TXT		Discard (Data Anomaly / Crawl)
6Class 5Educator+0.62s
TXT		84.4 (Target > 88)
TXT		Discard

​

Revised Race Summary & RobustScaler Chart​

HorseTfigBHA (Off / Perf / New)Hidden PenaltyGemini MarkFSP % (IQR Filtered)True Adv
Stormy Music79+
TXT		68 / 72 / 72
TXT		+3.2 lbs (Pace)71.2100.71%
TXT		-0.8 lbs
🔵 Born A Rebel⚓74
TXT		66 / 66 / 66
TXT		+4.3 lbs (Slowly Away/Pace)
TXT		70.3101.45%
TXT		+4.3 lbs
🔴 Decalogue76
TXT		69 / 69 / 69
TXT		+5.7 lbs (Slowly Away/Pace)
TXT		74.7101.34%
TXT		+5.7 lbs
Just Typical66
TXT		62 / 59 / 61
TXT		+0.2 lbs (Pace)59.299.59%
TXT		-1.8 lbs

Rather than just automatically back well in ones NTO , I prefer to analyse the race they are entered in.

I am looking to see if the horse who when next entered has my tissue price at 9/2 or less and being offered at
Greater odds than my tissue price


in today’s race, Decalogue has a Tissue Price 4/1 so passes the first requirement , but sadly is not being offered at greater odds. So I’m afraid it is a pass.

The reason why.

Even if I produce the most accurate Tissue Price at 4/1

Probability of winning: 20%
Probability of losing: 80%


So i the case of Decalogue, the odds need to be greater than 4/1 if a long term profit is to make a bet worth the risk
 
Tufnel said:
Salisbury 7:34

In my view this shows a clear cut class/form horse in Green Sky with plenty of things going her way. I'm surprised she is only 8 lb higher given the ease with which she has won her races, though I guess the handicapper took the view it was a penalty kick last time when well in.

The form horses as I see them here are, from the top of the card Green Sky, Counter Intuitive, Ruby Wedding, Liveninthelight and Rossa Raheen. With the last 3 of those named all in some way maintaining their form status by way of distance increases in line with this race.

Green Sky has the best form and highest winning class rating and is also the highest on AR of the form horses. In fact she is the highest AR in the field. Her form has been impressive, non more so than the demolition job she dished out her male opponents at York with a subsequent valuable hurdle and decent flat handicap winner in 3rd.

Whilst Salisbury will provide a different test to Newbury or York, she is not a big long striding galloper and seems quite athletic. She also had no worries with Chepstow's undulations and uphill finish, so Salisbury should be just fine for her. And her stamina with an ability to travel and quicken will ensure it will take a good deal of improvement from one of the others to outstay her over this 12 furlongs.

Green Sky looks the bet of the day to me.
Click to expand...
Just a few notes:

The race is unbalanced from a Bower perspective (+3.0)

Green Sky won an easy, 3-runner event LTO, so not much to go on with that race. Using Chesham Chesham 's idea of ability, I would say it has a little bit to find here.

Green Sky
Today OR 83 Class Median (CM) 81

17 Jul 26 Won OR 75 CM 78
10 Jul 26 Won OR 72 CM 77.5

The pace looks good for it, though.

1786621958050.png

1786622045127.png
 
Leodis said:
Just a few notes:

The race is unbalanced from a Bower perspective (+3.0)

Green Sky won an easy, 3-runner event LTO, so not much to go on with that race. Using Chesham Chesham 's idea of ability, I would say it has a little bit to find here.

Green Sky
Today OR 83 Class Median (CM) 81

17 Jul 26 Won OR 75 CM 78
10 Jul 26 Won OR 72 CM 77.5

The pace looks good for it, though.

View attachment 170458

View attachment 170461
Click to expand...
I think that 3 runner race, where she was put in a fillies race and so well in she had to run really, is just a penalty kick bonus.
It's the race at York against colts and geldings that show what she is capable of.
The 3rd horse trained by James Owen ran next in a 23k Handicap hurdle and won, then switched back to the flat at Newmarket and again won.

Switching back to a fillies only race and for a decent prize looks a good move. Murphy is on board too rather than a good claimer, so I take it the trainer thinks the weight is no issue.

I just think she looks more like a 90+ handicapper on her new found level of form, and I'm not sure there are any others in here that so far have shown they'd be capable of getting to that level in the near future.
 
Hi T Tufnel

Totally different method to,the one that I have used on the Salisbury 5.30

Just for fun as it is a race that you have chosen to have a go at

Salisbury 19:34 | Front-End Pace Mapping & Tactical Setup​

We map the early pace dynamics to assess if the Analiese Blueprint for a Lone Speed Anomaly applies over this 1m 4f trip.

  • Pace Scenario: Moderate to Slow Early Speed.
  • Front Runners: Rossa Raheen (BP 4).
    TXT

  • Prominent/Pressers: Model Yuko (BP 8 - if running; marked as scratched in secondary data), Green Sky (BP 6).
    TXT
Tactical Assessment: Assuming Model Yuko is scratched as indicated in the secondary data, the early pace map fundamentally shifts. Both Rossa Raheen and Green Sky are highly capable of pushing forward. Green Sky led early when completing a hat-trick, while Rossa Raheen took up a prominent position to win over C&D last time. Because both are drawn centrally and possess natural early foot, they are likely to lock horns early, nullifying the chance of a true, uncontested Lone Speed Anomaly for either runner. The tactical advantage shifts to the horses who can relax just behind this leading pair.

TXT+ 4


Salisbury 19:34 | Advanced Metrics & Form Summary Chart​

HorseMaster TfigLast 3 TfigsLast 3 TFRsJck %Trn %DODHotformDLSForm Highlights & MoveTissue Price
Green Sky8874, 48, 69
TXT
88+, 86+, 80+
TXT
18%
TXT
22%
TXT
-2.5
TXT
43.4927
TXT
🟢 TWO MOVES: Prominent, travelled well, led 2f out, driven clear. Thriving; unbeaten in three starts for new yard; steps up in class.
TXT+ 1
9/4 (3.25)
Counter Intuitive8783, 22, 52
TXT
87, 82+, 67
TXT
14%
TXT
24%
TXT
+2.0
TXT
11.7427
TXT
🟢 TWO MOVES: Chased leader, edged ahead, driven out. Progressive Frankel filly; seeking hat-trick after Newmarket win.
TXT+ 1
3/1 (4.00)
Ruby Wedding9355, 74, 57
TXT
93+, 84+, 82+
TXT
8%
TXT
14%
TXT
+2.0
TXT
7.9419
TXT
🟢 TWO MOVES: Travelled well, edged ahead, headed late. Improving type; solid 2nd at Newcastle on AW last start.
TXT+ 1
4/1 (5.00)
Liveinthelight9016, 49, 68
TXT
90, 85, 82+
TXT
14%
TXT
26%
TXT
+4.0
TXT
14.2522
TXT
🟢 TWO MOVES: Tracked pace, led 3f out, kept on. 3 wins from last 4 starts; steps up in grade.
TXT+ 1
6/1 (7.00)
Rossa Raheen9077, 82, 49
TXT
90+, 87, 57
TXT
16%
TXT
26%
TXT
-1.0
TXT
4.5319
TXT
🟢 TWO MOVES: Chased leader, joined 1f out, asserted late. Won over C&D LTO; looks progressive at 1m 4f.
TXT+ 1
10/1 (11.00)
Gloryous9278, 63, 54
TXT
80, 75, 79+
TXT
8%
TXT
16%
TXT
+7.0
TXT
19.7633
TXT
🟢 TWO MOVES: Chased leader, pushed along, left behind. Left behind by 3yos LTO; tries new trip but vulnerable.
TXT+ 1
14/1 (15.00)
Percy's Daydream9664, 51, 51
TXT
79+, 84, 96?
TXT
6%
TXT
14%
TXT
-4.5
TXT
30.5118
TXT
🟢 TWO MOVES: Prominent, not clear run, no chance after. Forgivable run LTO (blocked); drops 2 lbs.
TXT+ 1
25/1 (26.00)
(Note: Model Yuko is confirmed as a non-runner/scratched in the secondary data source and has been excluded from the sheet).

TXT


Detailed Timeform Race Comments (Last 3 Runs)​

2. Green Sky (IRE)

  • 17 Jul 26 (Newbury, 13.3f, Firm | TFR: 88+ / Tfig: 74): unpenalised from previous weekend, maintained unbeaten record for present yard in straightforward fashion; prominent, travelled well, produced to lead over 2f out, driven clear; clearly thriving following a change of scenery.
    TXT

  • 10 Jul 26 (York, 11.9f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 86+ / Tfig: 48): coasted up to them 2nd at the bend, right there then let down quickly for a very soft win.
    TXT+ 1

  • 3 Jul 26 (Chepstow, 12f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 80+ / Tfig: 69): won by 7.5 lengths.
    TXT+ 1
3. Percy's Daydream (GB)

  • 26 Jul 26 (Pontefract, 10f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 79+ / Tfig: 64): quickly eased 3 lb having struggled to get competitive at Newmarket, can have a line put through this run; prominent, effort when not clear run over 1f out, short of room again final 1f, no chance after.
    TXT

  • 17 Jul 26 (Newmarket, 10f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 84 / Tfig: 51): tracked lead, was in a handy spot but didn't go on with it.
    TXT+ 1

  • 4 Jul 26 (Beverley, 12.1f, Good | TFR: 96? / Tfig: 51): Listed class race, beaten 6.5 lengths.
    TXT+ 1
4. Gloryous (IRE)

  • 11 Jul 26 (Salisbury, 9.9f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 78 / Tfig: 78): failed to come on as required for her reappearance run; chased leader, pushed along from 3f out, left behind gradually.
    TXT

  • 29 Jun 26 (Kempton, 11f, Std/Slow | TFR: 75 / Tfig: 63): took up the running, held the front to the turn, claimed soon after and offered little in closing stages.
    TXT+ 1

  • 24 Oct 25 (Newbury, 10f, Heavy | TFR: 79+ / Tfig: 54): sat in behind leaders, stalked pace but couldn't finish race off.
    TXT+ 1
5. Counter Intuitive (IRE)

  • 17 Jul 26 (Newmarket, 12f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 87 / Tfig: 83): improved further as she made a successful start in handicaps, showing a much better attitude than the runner-up; chased leader, shaken up under 3f out, edged ahead approaching final 1f, driven out.
    TXT

  • 16 Jun 26 (Thirsk, 12f, Good | TFR: 82+ / Tfig: 22): took up the running, held narrow lead and found plenty to just hold on.
    TXT+ 1

  • 14 May 26 (Salisbury, 9.9f, Gd/Sft | TFR: 71 / Tfig: 52): settled in second half of field, came from well back and made some impression but never in the hunt.
    TXT+ 1
6. Ruby Wedding (GB)

  • 25 Jul 26 (Newcastle, 12.5f, Slow | TFR: 93+ / Tfig: 55): showed improved form switched to all-weather, not lying down when headed by the less-exposed favourite; in touch, travelled well, shaken up under 2f out, edged ahead over 1f out, headed final 1f, kept on.
    TXT

  • 25 Jun 26 (Hamilton, 11.1f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 84+ / Tfig: 74): held prominent position, stalked leader into lane then fought hard to just gain upper hand.
    TXT+ 1

  • 9 May 26 (Ascot, 10f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 82+ / Tfig: 57): settled in second half, had drop on leaders but lacked a change of gears.
    TXT+ 1
7. Liveinthelight (GB)

  • 22 Jul 26 (Leicester, 11.8f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 90 / Tfig: 16): has made a near-flawless start in handicaps, produced the best turn of foot in a slowly-run affair to defy a penalty; tracked pace, led under 3f out, shaken up soon after, edged right approaching final 1f, kept on.
    TXT

  • 14 Jul 26 (Ffos Las, 12f, Gd/Frm | TFR: 85 / Tfig: 49): won by 3.25 lengths.
    TXT+ 1

  • 2 Jul 26 (Nottingham, 10.2f, Good | TFR: 82+ / Tfig: 68): held position just off lead, had some work to do but dug deep to get into frame.
    TXT+ 1
8. Rossa Raheen (GB)

  • 25 Jul 26 (Salisbury, 12f, Good | TFR: 90+ / Tfig: 77): was suited by the increase in trip as she belatedly returned to the sort of form she'd shown when runner-up at Newbury in May; chased leader, went on over 2f out, joined over 1f out, asserted again final 50 yds, responded well.
    TXT

  • 2 Jul 26 (Newbury, 10f, Firm | TFR: 87 / Tfig: 82): settled at back of field, just kept to task in run home.
    TXT+ 1

  • 9 Jun 26 (Salisbury, 9.9f, Heavy | TFR: 57 / Tfig: 49): unsuited by going; sat behind leaders, was well back and made no impression.
    TXT+ 1
 
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