So where we seem to differ is when a horse has form status such as Aberama Gold had going into York, but is being lifted a significant amount in class and is down the field but is then being dropped in class in the next race ie the race being evaluated.T Tufnel
re Aberama Gold, it is worth considering how VDW described Lucky Vane (Righthand Man race) and Burrough Hill Lad (Wayward Lad race). He did not say they were out of form, just that for him they did not reach his requirements for "form" horse status. (That is why, whenever I remember, I put "form" in inverted comas; in a VDW context it is a very particular attribution and sometimes quite at odds with what most would quite reasonably think - especially when as happens sometimes, a lto winner is not a "form" horse.
Gaye Chance and Ekbalco offer an additional nuance, the former more commonly encountered than the latter, who was likely as much of a "one off" as in a different context was Rivage Bleu (who, other than being an extraordinary rare occurrance, has no relevance to the issue of "form" status). But the circumstances applying to both Ekbalco and Rivage Bleu are so rare as to be unlikely ever to come our way.
For me such horses are form horses because it seems VDW treated form status as relative to the class of race being run. If the race at York had been another 6k race then today I'd have classed AG as a non form horse. Unless of course he'd shown exposed form in that hypothetical 6k race.
I drew this conclusion some time ago because in the case of Lucky Vane the horse wasn't dropping class at Chepstow, but going up again. Now I realise today most people will argue that the Gold Cup Hcp at Newbury formerly the Hennessy Gold Cup Hcp, is largely a better race than the Welsh National but back then it was a lower value prize money race than the Chepstow event.
With BHL's case his last time out 3rd beaten, some way was in a much lower class race than the Kempton race he was going to. But if there had been a much better run by BHL in that Ascot race, then things would have been different.
As for LTO winners sometimes not being form horses, that I think must have occurred in the Desert Hero race because whilst VDW said the initla basis for DH was the 3 most popular selections providing the shortlist, he later commented that DH was a form horse "in fact he was the class/form horse" even though Patricks Fair had won last time out in a higher class handicap than DH had run 3rd in and had an ability rating of 20 compared to DH's 11.
Which perhaps clouds things further.


Plus, I thought 4/4 was worth pointing out. It's hard enough to string 2 wins together, let alone 4.