Like you,
T
Tufnel, I am not betting in the 4.45, though we differ on how we got to the same conclusion.
Mae Amor is, in my view, the VDW class/form horse, but with the obvious weaknesses in her profile, the higher ability-rated Aberama Gold who might well come back to form, and three more or less equally ability-rated "form" horses not too far down the ability ratings ranking (Alfa Whiteburd, Uppercase and The Good Biscuit,), I am sure she is a class/form horse who would have been within the >80% VDW would have left.