Class/form horses

[Leodis]

15.00 Gdw

From a Bower's perspective, the race is unbalanced (+3.0), so not one to bet in for me.

Just out of interest, I have compiled the shortlist, using EB's method:

Cerulean Bay
Ebt's Guard
Indalo
Scoville
Blue Brother
Bunyola Bay
Tribal Chief

I am also working on a Pace Map, initially built in AI but now fully automated in Excel (graphics to be improved)

Ordered by Draw:

HHI Score​	Interpretation​	Hold-Up Advantage​	Front-Run Advantage​
700.00​	“A strong, contested gallop” — three or more want the front. They can’t all have it. Expect a truly run race — the set-up for strong-travelling, patient sorts. Don’t assume any one speed horse “just leads”: that’s the other’s plan as well.​	High - boosted by Str, LR, UF​	Low - slight boost on Rnd, SR, Flt​

 

[Tufnel]

I think it very probable that VDW would have regarded Bunyola Bay as the class/form horse for the Golden Mile (3.00 Goodwood), not on the basis of "exposed form" but on Gaye Chance lines. His lto performance seems poor at first sight, but given the race class and the ORs of the runners, last was exactly where he could have been expected to finish.

In this case Bunyola Bay's penultimate race is the one from which one works and with win prize money higher than today's, according to the Post a 960 cf 902, he is dropping in class. The lack of key horse support for the win would ordinarily be a major negative but on VDW examples much less of a concern where, as with Bunyola Bay, the higher class race had been won easily.

Would VDW have regarded Bunyola Bay as one of the <20% of class/form horses to be backed? His examples don't in my view provide a clear basis to answer to that. He said he left Gaye Chance, but not exactly why. There was a higher ability-rated runner in that race, which does not apply today, but I doubt that was the reason as he often selected horses who were not the highest ability-rated. Maybe because he couldn't be sufficiently sure that Gaye Chance would, with the elapse of time, be back to the form of his penultimate race. On balance, I doubt VDW would be backing Bunyola Bay today.

There's several issues with Bunyola Bay's form. Whilst his jockey commented after his maiden win this year that that he was well of thought of and given time, he wasn't particularly impressive in holding off his rival in that race and the valuable conditions race he won next time was an EBF event that restricted entry to horses with a median sire value of no more 75k Euros. Which explains why the form lines in that race are particularly weak for the value of race.

This was further highlighted by Bunyola Bay's sire stud fee being 20k and most of the runners were well under 10k with a few in the 10-15k region. So not only was his sires progeny value more than the rest of the runners, so was his sire's fee which is to be expected.

Also one might ask why on earth did they step him up to 12f from 9.5f and whack him up into the Irish Derby?

The answer is that the winner of the EBF race gained automatic and free entry into the race. If you watch Levy on the horse in the Derby, it doesn't take long for him to decide not to waste the horse's energy and ease him off and coast home. Certainly wasn't worth trying to get 6th place and a mere 12k for doing so.

Personally I think even given the free entry, it seemed a waste of time even going there.

For me the class/form horse is Blue Brother. I'm just still deciding if the ground is really going to suit him today. He and the other two Wathnan runners are all entered in the big 1 mile handicap at York next month too.

I've no concerns about the extra furlong for Blue Brother. He was up with the pace on Ascot's stiff 7f and his best form is over further, so the fact he was able to remain in the first 4 after speedier horses went past in the closing stages says to me that speed shown will help him get a good position from his draw today over the mile on an easier track.

 

[DuckandDive]

15.00 Gdw

From a Bower's perspective, the race is unbalanced (+3.0), so not one to bet in for me.

Just out of interest, I have compiled the shortlist, using EB's method:

Cerulean Bay
Ebt's Guard
Indalo
Scoville
Blue Brother
Bunyola Bay
Tribal Chief

I am also working on a Pace Map, initially built in AI but now fully automated in Excel (graphics to be improved)

Ordered by Draw:
View attachment 169997

HHI Score​	Interpretation​	Hold-Up Advantage​	Front-Run Advantage​
700.00​	“A strong, contested gallop” — three or more want the front. They can’t all have it. Expect a truly run race — the set-up for strong-travelling, patient sorts. Don’t assume any one speed horse “just leads”: that’s the other’s plan as well.​	High - boosted by Str, LR, UF​	Low - slight boost on Rnd, SR, Flt​

--

Nice chart.

Agree not a balanced race.

My pace metrics also agree on the Strong pace and a likely truly run race, which should set it up for a well positioned, Held up/out the back, sort.

Indalo seems to be the natural choice and somehow, still value @ 7/2+



---

 

[Tufnel]

Today I'm going to go with Blue Brother in the Goodwood 3:00 because the extra distance somewhat negates the going issue. It's not he can't go on Good To Firm because clearly he showed at Ascot twice now that it doesn't bother him. There's been enough of a rest between that comeback run too.


In Goodwood 5:20 the three that first peaked my interest here are Into The Light, Pierian and Pearl River who all figure near the top of the weights and two of which are dropping in class.

Pearl River ran in the highest class last time but was down the field at 33/1 and has now run 10 times already and won twice in lower class handicaps.

Both Pierian and Into The Light made their debuts this year and the former as little as just 95 days ago and has run 4 times picking up a couple of novice events (one at 33/1 on against one rival) after a good debut 2nd.

She was then sent to France to try and pick up some mid level Listed race black type, but although staying on well in the closing stages to be 4th at around 8/1 was still beaten a fair way by the front two horses who included a decent Godolphin/Appelby horse. She now goes up again in class into her first handicap.

Into The Light made his debut at Lingfield on the AW in Feb beating the 6/4 fav Al Azd who has gone on to prove a top class handicapper over middle distances since. ITL was next sent to Southwell up to 12f and was 2nd at odds on to nice newcomer in Ravenspire, who easily won a novice with a penalty next time, then was beaten just under 2 lengths into 5th in the G2 Queens Vase at Ascot over 14f.

ITL’s next run was at Sandown over 10f at 6/1 in his first handicap and ran on well late (in front just after the line) to be just denied by the favourite Lost Boys, a well thought of lightly raced Night Of Thunder colt who won top class handicaps over 10f on his next two runs at Newbury (class 52k) and then Ascot (class 62k).

Then ITL went up in class last time at Ascot over 12f (62k) starting 4/1 but after making headway wide of the field off the turn in, he was soon eased off in the straight and coasted home under minimal urgings to run 11th (just in front of a horse who was being far more ridden and won next time out).

Cheekpieces are being added today and the horse is being dropped in class a fair way off the same mark as Ascot but still just 5lb more than when meeting Lost Boys who is rated 103 now.

I can’t imagine there is another Lost Boys in here today or horses of the calibre as Enceladus and Al Azd either. So Into The Light looks a good bet to me to take the opportunity.

In the first race at 1:50 I'm making a 2 horse book. 4yo Defiantly was just shaded late on after a titanic duel with stablemate and fellow 4yo Kiziyar at Ascot and seems to stay all day. Dylan is over to take the ride and I'm surprised this one isn't outright fav. Valiancy ran a good race in his Ascot appearance, but he doesn't do anything very quickly and is stepping up a long way in distance now.

I also think Alphonse Le Grande ran an eye catching race at Newcastle and Jamie Powell is back on board today rather than a claimer and he's won the Cesarewitch on him from 2 rides. The other was in the Chester Cup this year when no real effort seemed to be made to get into the race. Mr Martin is in cracking form at Galway this week and I think ALG has a top notch chance today. So I've backed both him and Defiantly.

Only other bet for me is at Newmarket 7:32 in Physique. Bolted up 2 runs back here and ran with a penalty but well out of his depth in the Bunbury. Has won off this mark before (valuable race too) and Micky Fenton seems to have revitalised this horse at 6 years of age.

Best of luck to all today.

 

[JennyK]

Good luck with Blue Brother, T Tufnel. In my view he and Indalo are the only two "form" horses in the race on "exposed form", but there may be others in addition to Bunyola Bay who would qualify as "form" horses on the basis of "less obvious form".

A good start to your day with Defiantly.

 

[Sullybomb]

EBT'S Guard
Indalo
Hawksbill
Cerulean Bay


Cheers

 

[Tufnel]

Good luck with Blue Brother, T Tufnel. In my view he and Indalo are the only two "form" horses in the race on "exposed form", but there may be others in addition to Bunyola Bay who would qualify as "form" horses on the basis of "less obvious form".

A good start to your day with Defiantly.

Thanks. Looks like both myself and James Doyle got it wrong in choosing the wrong beaten fav from Ascot. Bit galling to hear the trainer say Archivist was his choice to to win the race after the event though.

Of course the winner was high up in the weights with those almost magic placings showing consistency until the last run. Something I always look for so like I say, having looked at all the trainers runners and where they might be going next I feel I was taking a risk by not involving another runner in my bet.

Hopefully the next 2 bets can recoup and then some.

 

[Leodis]

16.10 Gdw

The shortlisted are:
Boiling Point
Jonquil
Galen
Haatem



Transferable Ability

Horse	Best race used	Base ability	FRSI	Summary
Boiling Point	03Jul26 Sandown, 10f, Gd, 1L, 34k	226	183.1	Very recent 10f Listed run, same weight as today, similar class/field.
Galen	16Jun26 Ascot, 10f, GF, 1L, 71k	227	178.1	Peak effort: GF, 10f, Listed, same jockey, strong ability.
Dividend	16Jun26 Ascot, 10f, GF, 1L, 71k	225	176.6	Big-field GF Listed 10f, mirrors today’s test and shows high ability.
Haatem	17Jun25 Ascot, 10f, GF, 1L, 68k	229	175.3	Win at 10f GF, same jockey, proven in similar conditions.
Jonquil	01May26 Ascot, 8f, GF, 1L, 34k	226	173.0	Cosy GF Listed win, same jockey, strong recent form despite 1f shorter.
Ambiente Friendly	17Jun25 Ascot, 10f, GF, 1L, 68k	219	167.6	Best balance of class and going; 10f GF Listed gives closest fit.
Diego Ventura	02Nov25 Capannelle, 10f, Gd, G2, 93k	215	146.2	Strong G2 10f effort; trip/class suit, though older and different jockey.

Pace Map

HHI Score​	Interpretation​	Hold-Up Advantage​	Front-Run Advantage​
1664.00​	“A strong, contested gallop” — three or more want the front. They can’t all have it. Expect a truly run race — the set-up for strong-travelling, patient sorts. Don’t assume any one speed horse “just leads”: that’s the other’s plan as well.​	High - boosted by Str, LR, UF​	Low - slight boost on Rnd, SR, Flt​

Boiling Point is the adjusted class/form horse, but the pace might better suit either Haatem or Jonquil

 

[Tufnel]

16.10 Gdw

The shortlisted are:
Boiling Point
Jonquil
Galen
Haatem



Transferable Ability

Horse	Best race used	Base ability	FRSI	Summary
Boiling Point	03Jul26 Sandown, 10f, Gd, 1L, 34k	226	183.1	Very recent 10f Listed run, same weight as today, similar class/field.
Galen	16Jun26 Ascot, 10f, GF, 1L, 71k	227	178.1	Peak effort: GF, 10f, Listed, same jockey, strong ability.
Dividend	16Jun26 Ascot, 10f, GF, 1L, 71k	225	176.6	Big-field GF Listed 10f, mirrors today’s test and shows high ability.
Haatem	17Jun25 Ascot, 10f, GF, 1L, 68k	229	175.3	Win at 10f GF, same jockey, proven in similar conditions.
Jonquil	01May26 Ascot, 8f, GF, 1L, 34k	226	173.0	Cosy GF Listed win, same jockey, strong recent form despite 1f shorter.
Ambiente Friendly	17Jun25 Ascot, 10f, GF, 1L, 68k	219	167.6	Best balance of class and going; 10f GF Listed gives closest fit.
Diego Ventura	02Nov25 Capannelle, 10f, Gd, G2, 93k	215	146.2	Strong G2 10f effort; trip/class suit, though older and different jockey.

Pace Map

View attachment 170005

HHI Score​	Interpretation​	Hold-Up Advantage​	Front-Run Advantage​
1664.00​	“A strong, contested gallop” — three or more want the front. They can’t all have it. Expect a truly run race — the set-up for strong-travelling, patient sorts. Don’t assume any one speed horse “just leads”: that’s the other’s plan as well.​	High - boosted by Str, LR, UF​	Low - slight boost on Rnd, SR, Flt​

Boiling Point is the adjusted class/form horse, but the pace might better suit either Haatem or Jonquil

The race looks too trappy for me, but the two I'd see as having the best chances would be Haatem and Galen, both proven at this level and having perhaps an excuse for both of them last time. One having a potential fitness issue last time and the other having trouble in running.

If Jonquil got the distance he would be dangerous too.

Good luck if you're betting in it. I'm going to give it a swerve.

 

[rave154]

dumb question from a sort of newbie, how do i send a private message/email to another person in here, if indeed its possible?

cheers

 

[Graeme]

dumb question from a sort of newbie, how do i send a private message/email to another person in here, if indeed its possible?

cheers

Got to the letter icon next to your name - start typing the name of the person you want to have a conversation with and assuming that is not blocked you should be good to go

 

[Tufnel]

Not a bad day, though I think my decision making on Physique was overly forgiving of the massive 9lb OR rise on the 6yo for Grace winning too far over C&D 2 runs back. I tried to justify by looking at victories 2 years back in higher class, but that seems rather daft now given the horse's age. Annoying.

I've reconsidered my view on another race I looked at today, the last race at Newmarket (8:32) where I've been pondering why I wasn't seeing more strength in the position of improving 3yo Mertoun. Since gelding this lightly raced 3yo has transformed winning 2 handicaps very easily over a mile as favourite both times.

Jockey Alexandra Egan who was on board for the most recent victory is able to claim 7lb this time and when you throw in the 8lb wfa this horse is set to carry 15lb less than it would have done which certainly negates the 11lb rise for the last victory 4 weeks back.

Trainer continues in good form, so I'm thinking I'll be kicking myself after this if I let this one run unbacked. So I've backed it now and stand by the decision.

Mertoun to win.

 

[BC]

dumb question from a sort of newbie, how do i send a private message/email to another person in here, if indeed its possible?

cheers

R rave154,

JennyK answered your previous question here>>

 

[BC]

Trainer continues in good form, so I'm thinking I'll be kicking myself after this if I let this one run unbacked. So I've backed it now and stand by the decision.

T Tufnel - I see you suffer from the same disease as me... FOMO!

 

[Tufnel]

Well that was a bad rethink. Mertoun found zilch as they entered the last 2f and the penalised top weight just got there for a narrow win.

I'd say Mertoun is gonna struggle going forward if that's all it really had.

I was only have a discussion the other day with someone about how often penalty carriers on the flat seem to win with well over 10 stone on their backs. We were talking about Grizedale bolting up at Newbury with such a burden.