Class/form horses

[BC]

I'm no expert with regards to VDW but having had a quick glance through the thread i belive you need to wait for the results and then there's something like a fifty year monatorium before it can be properly explained.

That's too funny! I did have to chuckle when I read that.

***

What I would argue in favour of discussing the 50-year-old examples is this:

There are 8 main forums on this message board.

Those main forums contain, perhaps, 80-odd sub-forums in total.

Some of those sub-forums have hundreds of threads.

The sub-forum where this thread resides is called VDW.

Is it then so surprising that visitors to this thread might wish to discuss VDW's ideas? And as part of that, the examples he gave?

No one is forced to visit this particular sub-forum. If one visits a thread in a VDW sub-forum, one should expect to see VDW's ideas and examples being discussed, no?

***

You might argue, "But haven't these examples been discussed ad nauseam?"

While certainly true, people may forget what they previously knew. The answer, if it even exists, might still elude them. A fresh face might be interested. And some people may just enjoy it for the sake of it.

***

We have no idea whether Moses, Jesus or Mohammed were real people. We don't have their birthday or even their birth year. We don't know when they died. There is no archaeology to support their existence.

All we have are some ancient texts purporting to confirm their existence, written long after the events they depict by some shady characters. Yet they are discussed in synagogues, churches and mosques hundreds, if not thousands, of years after their purported lives.

With VDW, two contributors that I am aware of have done the legwork and know VDW's dates of birth and death, his real name, his Market Harborough address, and even something about his nature, provided by someone who knew him.

And the writings are not second-hand accounts, but penned by the Maestro himself, notwithstanding the fact that he wove some astonishing fiction into his overall output.

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not having a pop at the religions. I am pointing out that people like to discuss the ideas of long-gone gurus, and at least with the eponymous guru of this sub-forum, we know, for a fact, that he was real and that he wasn't above lying.

***

I wonder if the current owners of his bungalow would object to a blue plaque. Something like, "VDW woz 'ere".

***

I really should go and do some work.

 

[tacker]

I must say BC that is a most impressive answer to my sarcastic approach to these fabled letter writers but at the end of the day it has nothing in common with the modern horse racing betting strategy, i'm unsure if this can be seen by non-members but if it is then we're likely to cop for more of these type of people....green voters and people that talk about their golf experiences.

ps ...Are you a bit of a doubting thomas at heart BC ?

 

[gerry]

A pragmatic view, gerry. But for those trying to work as VDW did, it is the case that the term "class/form horse" has a very specific meaning - the highest ability-rated horse (usually on the total win prize money divided by races won basis) who rates as a "form" horse by VDW's form status rating method and has no clear negatives in the area of conditions (going, trip, course type). It is not quite objective, because what constitutes a clear negative on, say, going, can only be a matter of judgement, but I would guess that in nine races out of ten VDWers would have no difficulty agreeing which horse was the VDW class/form horse.

Yet they cant tell us if they win not all the time or some of the time they just don't tell us at all if it works at all yet if 9 out of 10 VDWers could tell you what the right horse is tells me that the ones who can tell never come on forums and the other one does but hes the one who does not know.

 

[BC]

I must say BC that is a most impressive answer to my sarcastic approach to these fabled letter writers

I don't know why, but I thoroughly enjoyed writing it.

at the end of the day it has nothing in common with the modern horse racing betting strategy

You may be right. But surely class and form are the bedrock of many strategies, no?

i'm unsure if this can be seen by non-members but if it is then we're likely to cop for more of these type of people....green voters and people that talk about their golf experiences.

Heaven forbid. Although I wouldn't think that many Green voters play golf.

ps ...Are you a bit of a doubting thomas at heart BC ?

To VDW or religion? Both.

 

[JennyK]

Of the five sprint handicaps tonight, the 7.15 Hamilton is the most valuable and at first glance at the five the most interesting.

From a VDW point of view, the ability ratings of the field are:

Commanche Falls 354

Saint Lawrence 352

indistiguishable on this rating and neither having won a race for a very long time, the ability ratings for both are suspect. As neither is a VDW "form" horse hopefully they can be safely left, though there is always the risk of a highly ability-rated horse returning to form. On the evidence Saint Lawrence the more likely.

Strike Red 276 and a VDW form" horse, and I see no conditions concerns, so for me the VDW class/form horse in the race.

Ferrous 198 also a VDW "form" horse

Gangsta Man 78 also a VDW "form" horse

Jordan Electrics 72 not a VDW "form" horse on exposed form, but given that he won the race two years ago, his ownership and the sponsors of this evening's race probably should be regarded as a "form" horse on VDW's "less obvious form" idea.

Sir Garfield 46 also a VDW "form" horse.

So, two horses formally highest ability rated though I regard their ratings as suspect, who might return to form, the VDW class/form horse and four lower ability rated runners three of whom are certainly "form" horses and maybe the fourth should be so regarded as well. Difficult completely to rule out any.

Strike Red, the VDW class/form horse, raises two interesting issues. First, as a class dropper, he lacks the key horse support that VDW usually looked for. However, the key horse, Tuco Salamanca, had previously been in a higher class race and his numbers, against a 3/3 preference, are not appalling. I regard the key horse support as less than ideal but far from wholly unsatisfactory.

The second issue is for me the more interesting, though: do connections want to win this race? In 2024 Strike Red came 2nd and won two class 515 races at York. Last year he was win less but came 2nd in the class 1288 Stewards at Goodwood, just about the most valuable sprint handicap. And even this year he has won a class 258 and come 2nd in another. So why target a class 193 tonight when there are much more valuable races within the next two months? I am thinking particularly about the Stewards in just over a fortnight.

In 2024 Strike Red came 6th in the Stewards off 94, and 2nd, again off 94, in 2025. On my performance ratings, taking the years' runs as a whole he regressed considerably in 2025 (despite doing better in the Stewards than in 2024) and this year, after six runs, he is doing a touch better on my ratings than last year. The Stewards off a lower mark than last year seems a feasible target, and tonight he runs off 88. The problem, for connections, is that off 88 he has virtually no chance of making the Stewards field; last year the lowest rated horse ran off 92. To have a reasonable chance of making the Stewards field Strike Red has to win tonight. That is of course pertinent if connections are aiming for the Stewards; he certainly holds an entry. But to make the fields of any of the most valuable sprint handicaps over the next couple of months he will probably need a higher rating than 88.

My conclusion is that connections intend Strike Red to win this evening. Whether he does, we will soon know.

 

[BC]

Of the five sprint handicaps tonight, the 7.15 Hamilton is the most valuable
...
My conclusion is that connections intend Strike Red to win this evening. Whether he does, we will soon know.

I'd be concerned about Ferrous. Coming down from 77k and 54k races over the right distance, although carrying10st.

Berkshire to Hamilton is a long way to travel to finish out of the places.

 

[JennyK]

"Berkshire to Hamilton is a long way to travel to finish out of the places."

Indeed, BC. Only seven runners but hard to rule any out completely.

 

[BC]

Well done Strike Red backers.

Ferrous goes home with £9k, which probably made it worth the trip.

 

[JennyK]

Spot on with Ferrous, BC, he showed himself the danger. Judging by the way Strike Red was ridden at the finish, I think we can be sure connections really wanted to win that race.

Whether Strike Red is good enough for the Stewards, assuming he even gets in, is quite another matter.

 

[gerry]

well done JennyK nice winner.

 

[Leodis]

wd JennyK !

I opted for the Dutch bet.