Leodis
As I said earlier, I only started on the 8.23 after lunch. I have sent a copy of the completed Excel book to my racing pal but have not yet heard from him. The bottom line is that unless he identifies something that has eluded me - and if he does I'll post it - at current prices this is a no bet race for me.
Now my thoughts that lead to that conclusion.
You have commented that several have similar levels of ability. I agree. The ability rating ranking is tight. Yes, the top two (53 and 52) are a few points ahead of the next but then a whole bunch between 33 and 44, and much less differentiation than I prefer. (For completeness, these ARs come automatically from my data base and don't include any overseas races. If I were seriously interested in one as a possible bet, I'd check the ARs on the Post site.)
Second, in looking through the data I am struck by the similarities of several - just taking this year and aw performances, each has gone close to winning a race of not dissimilar class to today's, run a few more times and are now trying again off a lower mark. In alphabetical order:
Brazen Idol 18/03/26, 2nd class 42, average OR 70.9 off 72, beaten 0.8l. Now like all the others tackling a class 42, AOR 67.4 off 70.
Diamond Dreamer 27/04/26, 3rd class 52, AOR 67.2 off 66, beaten 1.0l. Now off 63.
Express Train 16/01/26, 3rd class 79, AOR 69.4, off 68, beaten 1.0l. Now off 66.
Serenity Dream 25/02/26, 2nd class 42, AOR 71.7, off 71, beaten 0.5l. Now off 67.
In principle any of these could win in today's easier field (AOR basis) off lower marks than with they have already gone close.
And that is to say nothing of those who have won a similar aw race this year and are trying again off higher marks.
Third, do I regard any as VDW "form" horses (and better still VDW consistent "form" horses? Yes, there are several (only Invincible Speed being a consistent "form" horse), but as already noted, not as much differentiation in ability ratings as I'd like. That said, highest ability-rated in the field, Serenity Dream (subject, as noted above, to checking the Post site) is a VDW "form" horse, and 11 points clear of the next two, Brazen Idol and Invincible Speed. Thus for me the VDW class/form horse.
Fourth, in browsing the recent careers of the field I was particularly interested in Serenity Dream. Obviously I have no knowledge of the thought processes behind the horse's placings, but in my imagination after the win over today's course and distance on 14/01/26, a classier race than today's, class 63, AOR 77.4, and a little later a close 2nd, from the win off 68 he was running off 72. My idea is that connections realised they'd need the horse dropped a few pounds to win again and the three placings after the last run on the aw, all three on turf, have been as follows:
02/05/26, Goodwood, over 5f. First time over that trip. I doubt they expected him to prove a minimum trip horse.
09/05/26 Ascot, back to 6f but in the most valuable race he had tried under Mr Carroll, a class 134 (the next highest a class 66). Surely they did not expect the horse to "show" in that field?
07/06/26 Goodwood, now up to 7f in the second highest class race under Mr Carroll, an 82, and on soft, only the second on soft in 29 runs. Did they really think he would win in that situation?
I am not suggesting that the horse wasn't trying in those races, merely that on known previous performances he was most unlikely to win or go very close in any of them. As a result, today he runs off 67, one pound less than when winning on 14/01/26, AND in a much weaker field (AOR 67.4 cf AOR 77.4). In my imagination, well done connections and surely ready to win! But as my racing pal would confirm, I am prone to these flights of imagination and they rarely come off.
So, to conclude, in Serenity Dream we have what I see as the class/form horse, albeit only just a "form" horse, without much differentiation in ability from most of the rest, at least three of whom are in not wholly dissimilar positions, trying to win off lower marks having gone close in slightly better races earlier this year. He is dropping in class today and lacks the kind of key horse support discussed earlier. That said, the key horse, Rare Change, beat Serenity Dream having come from a seemingly undistinguished run BUT in a much classier race (class 129, AOR 86.2), so I wouldn't be totally gloomy about that angle. Overall, not a <20% class/form horse to be backed, despite my flight of fantasy about his preparation.
Given that fantasy, even knowing that, logically, he is not a <20% class/form horse, I would have a dabble at the right price, but that would be well above the current Betfair 4.5 on Betfair.
Countdown?
Kalamunda
Great Mates — main danger (Tactical Dropper)
Post-Race Mechanical Audit (Epsom 6.22)
Initial Blue
