I still believe my horse
Chesham just missed the kick at start and being 3yold against these older got blocked in and when made move in inside although was tight gap jockey hesitated for second to go in there and just beat length over all was unlucky is not fair but inexperienced against older for first time made difference. And was happy at least this tight little affair which i said it was at beginning was fastest time of day and proved to be decent race.
You are not wrong and in this race it is always sensible to Dutch . I have found that by doing this the Bank Roll increases smoothly . Chester is always going to be full of hard luck stories . The Good news is that you often find horses to notebook (tracker) Of course it doe not stop there as you will still need to run the same full analysis when the notebook horse is next out as there may be better horses in the race.
I have found that if you have analysed pre race , then when tracker horses are next out you have a continuous ”Form flow” I think VDW described it as you can “Turn Back to your records”
Performance Ledger Update
| Race | Strategy | Outcome | P/L (Points) |
|---|
| Previous Total | — | — | +79.30 |
| Chester (3.03) | 4-Horse Green Book | WIN (Dark Thirty @ 6.80) | +5.37 |
| Project Bankroll Total | — | — | +84.67 |
Post-Race Data Post-Mortem: Traffic and Tactical Dominance
The RaceIQ metrics and Timeform reports provide a textbook breakdown of how Chester's unique track geometry dictates results.
1. The Class Edge Executed (Dark Thirty) He didn't need to produce a massive peak; he just needed to run his baseline. By jumping out and dictating the pace from the front ("made all, set strong pace"), Jason Hart kept him entirely out of the Chester traffic. He clocked a highly controlled
100.41% FSP and simply outclassed them in the straight. The Dante meeting form held up beautifully.
2. The Mathematical False Positive (Solar Aclaim) The "well-in" handicap theory completely unraveled at the starting stalls. He was slowly away again, but at Chester, missing the break is fatal. He was forced to make his headway out wide on the bends, which completely drained his engine. He recorded the second-worst FSP in the field (
98.77%) and folded.
3. The Traffic Nightmare (Ruby's Angel) The mechanics show she was the fastest finisher in the entire race. She recorded a field-best
102.15% FSP, but she was shuffled back early and ran into a wall of horses late ("keeping on when short of room late on"). If she gets a clear run, she easily threatens the winner.
4. The Unpredictable Variable (We Never Stop) We faded him due to his collapsing form, but Timeform notes he had undergone a
breathing operation since his last run. Wind surgery can instantly reverse a decaying mechanical profile. He ran a massive race to grab second (101.88% FSP), proving why expanding to a 4-horse Dutch was the right move to protect against sudden bounce-backs from out-of-form runners.
The RaceIQ Tracker Targets
1. Ruby's Angel (The Victim of Circumstance) She must stay in the tracker. Recording a 102.15% FSP despite being hampered early and blocked late proves she is operating well ahead of her mark of 86. With a clear trip, she wins a Class 3 or 4 sprint comfortably.
2. We Never Stop (The Code Switcher) The wind surgery clearly worked. Timeform explicitly notes his last three wins have come on the Tapeta surface, and he is "fortunate not to have split BHA ratings." The very next time Kevin Ryan enters him in an All-Weather sprint, his revived engine and plummeting handicap mark will make him a massive bet.
gerry
I am using My Class Ratings as the Starting Point.
The VDW 90 Rating is a separate Formula
Nellsman i think as long as the facts are there to be checked then after timing is ok just validates information but i do also understand why where
Revised Concentrated Green Book (Post-Rule 4)
. An expected reply from you, ambiguous as always
