Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
JennyK
Gelding
Three very tricky 6f Cups at Ayr today and tomorrow, of which at the moment today's Bronze Cup looks the least promising.
Subject to checking the ability ratings for races abroad not in my database, I have The Ridler as the class/form horse, with the other four in the top five of the ability ratings either not form horses or, for the one who is, Monsieur Kodi, not having consistent form.
The Ridler has an odd profile, his AR largely coming from one 2yo race at Ascot over two years ago, and nothing of much note since. Surely not one of the up to 20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed,
Subject to checking the ability ratings for races abroad not in my database, I have The Ridler as the class/form horse, with the other four in the top five of the ability ratings either not form horses or, for the one who is, Monsieur Kodi, not having consistent form.
The Ridler has an odd profile, his AR largely coming from one 2yo race at Ascot over two years ago, and nothing of much note since. Surely not one of the up to 20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed,
Over the last 15 races i have analyzed the worst consistency rating has been 20 for class 4 and below there have been 19 18 down to 4 so i think its more the class of horses in the race this is supposed a class 2 however its a 70 A/OR so a poor race as you say i have Monsieur Kodi as the C/F horse but hate 3 yr olds in these races like yesterdays 33/1 bottom weight winning
I have the same class/form horse The Ridler, and if one excuses the 2nd last run as being a better race than this one, he becomes one of the consistent horses too as well as an Erin top 3 and one tick out of the 2nd numerical top 3. Has less weight to carry than either of it's 2 runs each side of the 26k race. I think Eternal Sunshine is a probable, but is going up in class and only has a few lb less to carry than yesterday.
I think you're right, the class/form horse is probably not one of the 20% taken, but will not surprise me if The Ridler or Eternal Sunshine wins the race anyway.
I think you're right, the class/form horse is probably not one of the 20% taken, but will not surprise me if The Ridler or Eternal Sunshine wins the race anyway.
The class/form horses I think are worthy of a bet today are Lake Forest Newbury 4:05, Coto Da Caza Ayr 3:05.
And whilst strictly speaking on ARs Blessed Honour in the 4:40 is not a c/f, she is a lightly raced 3yo filly who beat another such filly Power Of Destiny last time that only narrowly was beaten in a class 2 handicap at Goodwood last time, where the form has already had a boost. Based on that, I'll be amazed if she's not up to winning a race like this from a mark of 83. So, I'll be backing her and taking the view that the King horse Loughville will do well to give 8lbs to BH.
And whilst strictly speaking on ARs Blessed Honour in the 4:40 is not a c/f, she is a lightly raced 3yo filly who beat another such filly Power Of Destiny last time that only narrowly was beaten in a class 2 handicap at Goodwood last time, where the form has already had a boost. Based on that, I'll be amazed if she's not up to winning a race like this from a mark of 83. So, I'll be backing her and taking the view that the King horse Loughville will do well to give 8lbs to BH.
Leodis
Gelding
T
Tufnel,
I looked at the 16.05 this morning:
No bet for me.
Update: LF might be a N-R now
I looked at the 16.05 this morning:
| Runner | Con | Ability | EB | Class | Erin |
| Lake Forest 9-1 | 25.5 | 217 | 95 | 1 | 3 |
| Nostrum 9-4 | 5.4 | 208 | 96 | -1 | 3 |
| Witch Hunter 9-4 | 2.8 | 199 | 91 | -7 | 6 |
| English Oak 9-4 | 3.0 | 196 | 88 | -1 | 14 |
| Lake Forest 2nd to Fav [kh], equal weights, whilst stepping up in class [-2] Negative: KH was going up in class [-9], unproven on going and stepping up in distance for the first time and attempting it on a straight course. The figures are impressive for LF but one too many questions for me Nostrum 2nd to Fav [KH], equal weights, whilst dropping in class [+5] Negatives: KH was up in class [-12], going? |
No bet for me.
Update: LF might be a N-R now
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Had a feeling it would get withdrawn. Looked there for the taking today down in class and surely the extra furlong would have been to his advantage in this class on today's terms. Ah well. A wasted 20 minutes or so.
JennyK
Gelding
The class/form horse just about made the frame, so right to leave him.
The winner is interesting. With Call Me Ginger's withdrawal, promoted to 5th in the ability rating ranking and a form horse. Like Monsieur Kodi, not with consistent form, but it would not have been unreasonable to disregard the second last placing in which case, 2nd on class/form.
The winner is interesting. With Call Me Ginger's withdrawal, promoted to 5th in the ability rating ranking and a form horse. Like Monsieur Kodi, not with consistent form, but it would not have been unreasonable to disregard the second last placing in which case, 2nd on class/form.
Chesham
Sire
Yes I would usually take the going into consideration. With the classier horse ina. Listed the Trainer will not keep the horse in if the going has changed or if after walking the course, he thinks that the going is different to the Course of the clerks opinion. How often do you see Aiden O’Brien walk the course with his Jockey.Chesham would the going change affect your confidence in the selection, I was very strong on Midnight Rumble in the 5.15 but I'm leaving Newbury alone now.
With lower class races in handicaps the trainer may let the horse run to get its BHA Rating down.
Iknow that
mick keeps track of the weather forecast before placing his bet at the 48 hr Decs Stage. I think Haggas may have run out of future options as LF only has a Grp entry and todays was its easiest opportunity.
mick
Sire
Re
Chesham above imo the glory days of finding frequent value in the EP markets have gone, but the one area where the Bookmakers odds compilers continue to rick is when not taking into account the weather Fc and possible going changes. Over the years plenty of my best EP winners have come when predicting in advance of the market that the ground will change to soft come the off.
Of course you need to become a form reader of the weather forecaster's who often disagree or just get it wrong but these things have to be judged on balance and the high average EPs obtained pay for there mistakes and your own while still leaving a good profit to compensate for the additional effort and frustrations involved.
Chesham above imo the glory days of finding frequent value in the EP markets have gone, but the one area where the Bookmakers odds compilers continue to rick is when not taking into account the weather Fc and possible going changes. Over the years plenty of my best EP winners have come when predicting in advance of the market that the ground will change to soft come the off. Of course you need to become a form reader of the weather forecaster's who often disagree or just get it wrong but these things have to be judged on balance and the high average EPs obtained pay for there mistakes and your own while still leaving a good profit to compensate for the additional effort and frustrations involved.
JennyK
Gelding
Identifying the class/form horses in the Ayr Silver Cup (2.25) is straightforward, with just two of the five highest rated on ability being both form horses and having consistent form, and one of the two, Summerghand (AR 237) well ahead on ability of the other, Alfa Kellenick (AR 187).
What to do next is not so straightforward, as neither class/form horse Summerghand nor Alfa Kellenick has the quality of form via their respective key horses one would ideally like to see.
The Ayr Gold Cup (3.35) is much less straightforward and offers interesting but pre-race insoluble avenues for speculation. Is top rated on ability Kings Lynn (AR 645) a form horse? Not the easiest of judgements but on balance not. Second in the ability ratings, Room Service (AR 544), ditto, but there I think yes, which would make him the class/form horse. That said, winning a 7 runner at Pontefract on soft is a different kettle of fish to a twenty plus field at Ayr on (at least at the moment) good.
And what to make of Commanche Falls' and Twothousandtoone's last runs? We know what Jock Bingham would have said, should either win, but was either run over the "wrong" trip for the kind of reason he posited?
Far too many questions I can't answer with confidence.
What to do next is not so straightforward, as neither class/form horse Summerghand nor Alfa Kellenick has the quality of form via their respective key horses one would ideally like to see.
The Ayr Gold Cup (3.35) is much less straightforward and offers interesting but pre-race insoluble avenues for speculation. Is top rated on ability Kings Lynn (AR 645) a form horse? Not the easiest of judgements but on balance not. Second in the ability ratings, Room Service (AR 544), ditto, but there I think yes, which would make him the class/form horse. That said, winning a 7 runner at Pontefract on soft is a different kettle of fish to a twenty plus field at Ayr on (at least at the moment) good.
And what to make of Commanche Falls' and Twothousandtoone's last runs? We know what Jock Bingham would have said, should either win, but was either run over the "wrong" trip for the kind of reason he posited?
Far too many questions I can't answer with confidence.
Chesham
Sire
Looks like he is a Lee Type
LTO 6th in the Melrose
Andrew Balding used the same Prep Race with. Bernie The Bolt in 2009 and showed improved speed fig in the Melrose and dropped in class and weight to win todays race in 2009
Trainer thinks it is his best chance today form his runners .