Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
Leodis
Gelding
I'm going with Alfa Kellenic as a single win bet in this 2:25 at Ayr. Very consistent, clocked an excellent speed figure last time in better class and significantly over a furlong further than today's trip. Was travelling all over them from 2f out that day and has won at this trip plenty of times. Super consistent, 4th in betting last time and miraculously has only been fav once in those last 5 wins.
Plenty of punters scratching their heads about Mustazeed's win at 3/1 there in a way better race than it was beaten in yesterday at the course. But you can't tell me connections didn't know they were going to run again today and try to rectify the result in this race from last year when a beaten 3/1JF?
Never looked at the race myself until just now. As VDW said, some trainers pull some tricky moves.
Never looked at the race myself until just now. As VDW said, some trainers pull some tricky moves.
Tactician looks a genuine forecast favourite, and the form of the better race it ran in last time has stood up very well. Cheekpieces on today, still running off a low weight and the way they have campaigned this horse suggests they knew it was a stayer from day 1.
Not a great price, but if you were a bookmaker, would you be prepared to offer more than the 6/4 on offer currently?
I think it's one to back today.
Not a great price, but if you were a bookmaker, would you be prepared to offer more than the 6/4 on offer currently?
I think it's one to back today.
Well Tactician was absolute rubbish there. Never ever looked like winning, one paced. Won't be winning the Cesarewitch that's for sure. The winner came from the back and travelled well.
It's that thing again about not listening too much to what trainers say publicly. Balding apparently said it was his best chance of the day. Did he mention his class dropper in the first at Ayr?
It's that thing again about not listening too much to what trainers say publicly. Balding apparently said it was his best chance of the day. Did he mention his class dropper in the first at Ayr?
Chesham
Sire
He Said “Aragon Castle has been very consistent and should run well off his mark of 92 (He did not mention anything about VDW
)”He won at Hmiltonon his last trip to Scotland and his owner is scotish,so it would be nice to get her a winner up there.
I use a template that I devised based on my interpretation of Lee's selections, very similar to what Chesham posted up about the criteria that Lee's selections possessed.
I tweak it a little bit, and as things change / evolve in racing, then I try to react accordingly ie what I consider sensibly.
The landscape has changed immensely in the last 4 or 5 years in regard to the live betting market. The real informative action in my opinion, taking place in the last 5 or so minutes before the off, and I like to factor that in to the equation, and I use a couple of other elements, elementary elements really,that would probably be scorned upon by the purists.
To answer the question the selection of Tactician, isn't like any of Lee's selections.
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gerry
Mare
There was to much wrong for tactician to be so short on saturday for start although had won over 2miles looked like was better horse over shorter so going up in distance just didnt make sense, had never run the track would you put a woman on it going over further for first time again didnt make sense.
gerry
Mare
there is reasons why it looked like tactician would be better of shorter and in my opinion balding got it wrong which is possible.
He has it entered over 2 mile on saturday at curragh and in big race its self and i will be surprised if takes any of them up.
Grand providence looked like a stayer before hand.
And bernie the bolt beat aload of none stayers and was lucky it got a easy race to win.
So time will tell but i will be surprised if it dosnt come back in distance.
He has it entered over 2 mile on saturday at curragh and in big race its self and i will be surprised if takes any of them up.
Grand providence looked like a stayer before hand.
And bernie the bolt beat aload of none stayers and was lucky it got a easy race to win.
So time will tell but i will be surprised if it dosnt come back in distance.
Chesham
Sire
Where did you post Pre race about tactician
Chesham
Sire
JennyK
Gelding
gerry "But i am sure if that race would have been 1mile 6 fur lee would have been all over it."
As a matter of interest, why do you think that? While not disagreeing that Tactician might do better over a shorter trip, the characteristics I see in Lee's class dropping selections were absent in his case on Saturday. But I doubt I have a complete list of Lee's publicly posted selections, hence my interest.
gerry
Mare
I mentioned on here that there was way of vdw that could have got six winners on saturday not one with low erin numbers and they only need look at saturday to get so close to finding what works.
Yet not one answer and yet they still go looking for 30 years on same things and cant find way, lee did and thats where the answer is lying.
You showed me lees results
Chesham and thats where i started from and as i used to follow my dads speeds for 50 years with him since teen i knew thats the way to go.
So my formula works similar way and looks good so far.
I know you know alot about it so look at tactician speed figures for both its last 1mile 6 fur races then look at its 2mile speed figure that told me as it was odds on that day to that it was more a speed horse than stayer which proved right .
Yet not one answer and yet they still go looking for 30 years on same things and cant find way, lee did and thats where the answer is lying.
You showed me lees results
Chesham and thats where i started from and as i used to follow my dads speeds for 50 years with him since teen i knew thats the way to go.So my formula works similar way and looks good so far.
I know you know alot about it so look at tactician speed figures for both its last 1mile 6 fur races then look at its 2mile speed figure that told me as it was odds on that day to that it was more a speed horse than stayer which proved right .