Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
JennyK
Gelding
With the Gosforth Cup, 5.25 Newcastle, at least we have a sprint worth spending time on.
From the Post forecast of 5/1 Navello, 6/1 Copper Knight, 7/1 Prince Of Zenda, 8/1 Thunder Moor, Ziggys Missile, 10/1 Bergerac, Burning Cash
I make the first numerical picture horses Navello (consistency total 8), Burning Cash (11), Copper Knight and Thunder Moor (both 14).
Following the 1988 Mackeson procedure, the three with the highest ability ratings from the four in the first numerical picture are Copper Knight (AR 198), Thunder Moor (183) and Navello (119), so Burning Cash (72) is jettisoned, but those in the field with the three highest lto class ratings are also now considered. These are Bergerac, Mattice, Ziggys Missile, Makanah and Burning Cash (all from class 387), Prince Of Zenda (255) and Navello and Thunder Moor (both 157).
Would VDW have added Burning Cash back in, having jettisioned him initially? No way of knowing so, playing safe, I do. So this gives six to add to the three: Copper Knight, Thunder Moor and Navello, now plus Bergerac, Mattice, Ziggys Missile, Makanah, Burning Cash and Prince Of Zenda, with two (like Pegwell Bay in the 1988 Mackeson), appearing in both sections, Thunder Moor and Navello.
The third numerical picture is, I assume, those within the nine that VDW would have regarded as form horses; being generous, all except Ziggys Missile and Makana. The question then is whether the third numerical picture is completed by ranking the seven in descending order of ability ratings, or before doing that, would VDW have jettisoned any he thought failed on "the other factors". Given his comments on Mackeson runner Jim Thorpe -"the distance is wrong and he requires much softer ground to perform well" - and that he made the lower ability-rated Pegwell Bay as the class/form horse over Jim Thorpe, I think he would.
Taking the seven alphabetically, on "the other factors":
Bergerac, Burning Cash and Mattice and have all won, or run well, over the trip, on the aw and on the course type, and weight seems no issue with them.
There are possible question marks in respect of the others:
Copper Knight. Has yet to run well on the aw (three tries so far)
Navello. Has never won nor gone really close on a power course like Newcastle, though maybe the run on 16/04/24 at Newmarket would provide enough re-assurance
Prince Of Zenda. First time over 5f,.
Thunder Moor. Like Navello, has yet to win or go close on a power course.
I am far from sure whether VDW would have eliminated any of the four on "the other factors" consideration, but sorting out the class/form horse depends on it.
The seven, in descending order of ability ratings, are:
Copper Night - 198
Thunder Moor - 183
Bergerac - 142
Navello - 119
Mattice - 106
Burning Cash - 72
Prince Of Zenda - 63
So, if VDW had not jettisoned any on "the other conditions" considerations, Copper Knight would have been the class/form horse. The highest ability rated horse with, as far as I can see, no "the other factors" question marks is Bergerac.
Assuming that whatever judgements VDW made on "the other condtions" considerations, there are thus three who might have been his class/form horse. The question then becomes does any of the three have the kind of form profile VDW indicated he backed.
Copper Knight. Going up in class on both penalty values and strength of field as per average ORs. Won lto as favourite, which is very much what VDW liked in class risers. However, his consistency total of 14 is higher than every class-rising selection VDW gave. So maybe both a consistent horse and a form horse, but not what VDW referred to as a horse with consistent form.
Thunder Moor. He is also up in class on both measures and came 3rd lto when 10th in the betting. The only comparable VDW example is Castle Warden, who VDW made clear was not a bet.
Bergerac. Down in class, having been 8th lto when 10th in the betting. Both well above those of any of VDW's class-dropping selections, which is a pity as he has just the right kind of key horse support of the form for which it seems VDW looked.
Overall conclusion. Whichever of the three VDW would have regarded as the class/form horse, I doubt he would have thought it was strong enough to back, ie it would fall into the usual (for VDW 80+%) category of a class/form horse left to run unbacked.
A final thought on the race. Copper Knight has (assuming my figures are correct) the highest ability rating in the field, in part due to his win on 18/08/21, a class 361. Each of his five wins since then has been within the range 103 to 179. Today's 258 would, if he won, be his best winning performance in nearly three years. How likely is that, bearing in mind he is now a 10yo?
My own approach to ability suggests not very likely at all, as illustrated by the attached chart.
From the Post forecast of 5/1 Navello, 6/1 Copper Knight, 7/1 Prince Of Zenda, 8/1 Thunder Moor, Ziggys Missile, 10/1 Bergerac, Burning Cash
I make the first numerical picture horses Navello (consistency total 8), Burning Cash (11), Copper Knight and Thunder Moor (both 14).
Following the 1988 Mackeson procedure, the three with the highest ability ratings from the four in the first numerical picture are Copper Knight (AR 198), Thunder Moor (183) and Navello (119), so Burning Cash (72) is jettisoned, but those in the field with the three highest lto class ratings are also now considered. These are Bergerac, Mattice, Ziggys Missile, Makanah and Burning Cash (all from class 387), Prince Of Zenda (255) and Navello and Thunder Moor (both 157).
Would VDW have added Burning Cash back in, having jettisioned him initially? No way of knowing so, playing safe, I do. So this gives six to add to the three: Copper Knight, Thunder Moor and Navello, now plus Bergerac, Mattice, Ziggys Missile, Makanah, Burning Cash and Prince Of Zenda, with two (like Pegwell Bay in the 1988 Mackeson), appearing in both sections, Thunder Moor and Navello.
The third numerical picture is, I assume, those within the nine that VDW would have regarded as form horses; being generous, all except Ziggys Missile and Makana. The question then is whether the third numerical picture is completed by ranking the seven in descending order of ability ratings, or before doing that, would VDW have jettisoned any he thought failed on "the other factors". Given his comments on Mackeson runner Jim Thorpe -"the distance is wrong and he requires much softer ground to perform well" - and that he made the lower ability-rated Pegwell Bay as the class/form horse over Jim Thorpe, I think he would.
Taking the seven alphabetically, on "the other factors":
Bergerac, Burning Cash and Mattice and have all won, or run well, over the trip, on the aw and on the course type, and weight seems no issue with them.
There are possible question marks in respect of the others:
Copper Knight. Has yet to run well on the aw (three tries so far)
Navello. Has never won nor gone really close on a power course like Newcastle, though maybe the run on 16/04/24 at Newmarket would provide enough re-assurance
Prince Of Zenda. First time over 5f,.
Thunder Moor. Like Navello, has yet to win or go close on a power course.
I am far from sure whether VDW would have eliminated any of the four on "the other factors" consideration, but sorting out the class/form horse depends on it.
The seven, in descending order of ability ratings, are:
Copper Night - 198
Thunder Moor - 183
Bergerac - 142
Navello - 119
Mattice - 106
Burning Cash - 72
Prince Of Zenda - 63
So, if VDW had not jettisoned any on "the other conditions" considerations, Copper Knight would have been the class/form horse. The highest ability rated horse with, as far as I can see, no "the other factors" question marks is Bergerac.
Assuming that whatever judgements VDW made on "the other condtions" considerations, there are thus three who might have been his class/form horse. The question then becomes does any of the three have the kind of form profile VDW indicated he backed.
Copper Knight. Going up in class on both penalty values and strength of field as per average ORs. Won lto as favourite, which is very much what VDW liked in class risers. However, his consistency total of 14 is higher than every class-rising selection VDW gave. So maybe both a consistent horse and a form horse, but not what VDW referred to as a horse with consistent form.
Thunder Moor. He is also up in class on both measures and came 3rd lto when 10th in the betting. The only comparable VDW example is Castle Warden, who VDW made clear was not a bet.
Bergerac. Down in class, having been 8th lto when 10th in the betting. Both well above those of any of VDW's class-dropping selections, which is a pity as he has just the right kind of key horse support of the form for which it seems VDW looked.
Overall conclusion. Whichever of the three VDW would have regarded as the class/form horse, I doubt he would have thought it was strong enough to back, ie it would fall into the usual (for VDW 80+%) category of a class/form horse left to run unbacked.
A final thought on the race. Copper Knight has (assuming my figures are correct) the highest ability rating in the field, in part due to his win on 18/08/21, a class 361. Each of his five wins since then has been within the range 103 to 179. Today's 258 would, if he won, be his best winning performance in nearly three years. How likely is that, bearing in mind he is now a 10yo?
My own approach to ability suggests not very likely at all, as illustrated by the attached chart.
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Chesham
Sire
A Good Race to use for VDW Dutching using the past Trends 9/9 races after today won by the Trend Short List
Even at the prices at the time,of posting a good profit
JennyK
Gelding
The database in my main application only goes back three years before the current one, so Copper Knight registered just the losing runs on the aw mentioned in my main post. However, he has won this race six years ago, and I think therefore he should have been on the list with Bergerac, Burning Cash and Mattice of horses with no "the other factors" question marks. I think therefore using VDW's ability rating he was the class/form horse, though the issue of him lacking consistent form, despite being both a consistent horse and a form horse, would I suspect still have made him a class/form horse VDW would not have backed.
Chesham
Sire
Combined with Race Trend
JennyK
Gelding
Not a sprint, but for a VDWer the Old Newton Cup has a certain pull.
First numerical picture
The first six in the Post forecast are Chillingham, Epic Poet, Iron Lion, La Yakel, Maghlaak and Relentless Voyager, and of them the three with the lowest last three placings aggregates are Relentless Voyager (7), La Yakel (8) and Maghlaak (10).
Second numerical picture
The three from the first are joined by those from the three highest class races lto: Teumessias Fox (1031), Kings Code (902) and Astro King (681), and unlike VDW's 1988 Mackeson example, there is no overlap. So six for consideration at the end of stage 2.
Putative third numerical picture
The possibles from the second numerical picture ranked by ability rating and assessed as form horses/not form horses.
Astro King 353
La Yakel 272
Relentless Voyager 213
Teumessias Fox 122
Maghlaak 119
Kings Code 78
of which in my view only Teumessias Fox and Kings Code are form horses on VDW's "exposed form" basis of assessment.
Can any of the other four be assessed as having "less obvious form"? Not in my view.
So, two form horses, of whom Teumessias Fox has by far the higher ability rating. Is he okay on "the other factors"?
12f is certainly his trip, with all three handicap wins to date over that distance. And he has won on both a speed course (Kempton, twice) and a power course (Newmarket, plus a non-handicap win at Newcastle), so 12f at Haydock should suit. Has yet to win on good going, but I'd need clear evidence that a horse only performed on softer before discarding one because of good going.
Thus for me, Teumessias Fox is the class/form horse.
For a horse dropping in class - 1031 to today's 773 - for VDW good key horse support seems to have been an important factor. Teumessias Fox has that up to a point. The key horse in his last race horse won its previous race as favourite, always a plus, but it was a very low class race, which takes the gloss off somewhat.
Teumassias Fox has been off the track 99 days, but has won after being off for 168 days so I am less concerned about that than I woud be in other circumstances.
The trainer has one of the favourites in the race in Relentless Voyager, and Oisin Murphy rides him rather than Teumessias Fox, which may or may not be significant.
At 33/1*, Teumessias Fox looks a class/form horse worth a dabble but his position in the market is something of a negative.
* actually, 55.0 on Betfair currently. Should he win, he'll be by far my longest priced winner this year.
First numerical picture
The first six in the Post forecast are Chillingham, Epic Poet, Iron Lion, La Yakel, Maghlaak and Relentless Voyager, and of them the three with the lowest last three placings aggregates are Relentless Voyager (7), La Yakel (8) and Maghlaak (10).
Second numerical picture
The three from the first are joined by those from the three highest class races lto: Teumessias Fox (1031), Kings Code (902) and Astro King (681), and unlike VDW's 1988 Mackeson example, there is no overlap. So six for consideration at the end of stage 2.
Putative third numerical picture
The possibles from the second numerical picture ranked by ability rating and assessed as form horses/not form horses.
Astro King 353
La Yakel 272
Relentless Voyager 213
Teumessias Fox 122
Maghlaak 119
Kings Code 78
of which in my view only Teumessias Fox and Kings Code are form horses on VDW's "exposed form" basis of assessment.
Can any of the other four be assessed as having "less obvious form"? Not in my view.
So, two form horses, of whom Teumessias Fox has by far the higher ability rating. Is he okay on "the other factors"?
12f is certainly his trip, with all three handicap wins to date over that distance. And he has won on both a speed course (Kempton, twice) and a power course (Newmarket, plus a non-handicap win at Newcastle), so 12f at Haydock should suit. Has yet to win on good going, but I'd need clear evidence that a horse only performed on softer before discarding one because of good going.
Thus for me, Teumessias Fox is the class/form horse.
For a horse dropping in class - 1031 to today's 773 - for VDW good key horse support seems to have been an important factor. Teumessias Fox has that up to a point. The key horse in his last race horse won its previous race as favourite, always a plus, but it was a very low class race, which takes the gloss off somewhat.
Teumassias Fox has been off the track 99 days, but has won after being off for 168 days so I am less concerned about that than I woud be in other circumstances.
The trainer has one of the favourites in the race in Relentless Voyager, and Oisin Murphy rides him rather than Teumessias Fox, which may or may not be significant.
At 33/1*, Teumessias Fox looks a class/form horse worth a dabble but his position in the market is something of a negative.
* actually, 55.0 on Betfair currently. Should he win, he'll be by far my longest priced winner this year.
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Chesham
Sire
Chillingham is potentially 7 Lb well in LTO Performance and arrives from a Trail Race
Epic Poet and Sheer Rocks arrive from a Trail Race
Notable that The Northern Dancer is 0/20 as a Trail Race
Previous Race Count Wins P/L (SP)
Non compiled races (Non major/Races without many runnings etc etc) 132 0 0
Duke of Edinburgh Stakes 72 7 6
Epsom, 1m4f Handicap (Derby Festival) 20 0 -20
York, Jorvik Stakes 13 1 -3
Chesham
Sire
69.1 % Dutching the 3 above, with proportional stakes
VDW said that The Old Lancashire Oaks and The Old Newton Cup were two of his favourite races and for the followers of VDW why bother to say that. well he gives a clue that his Methodolgy usually threw up the winner in one or both races and that sometimes he had dutched in those races
VDW said that The Old Lancashire Oaks and The Old Newton Cup were two of his favourite races and for the followers of VDW why bother to say that. well he gives a clue that his Methodolgy usually threw up the winner in one or both races and that sometimes he had dutched in those races
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