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Class/form horses

JennyK said:
R rave154

As Leodis Leodis says ... you could take my post on the 7.15 Hamilton, 17/07/26, post 1405 on this thread, as an example. But do bear in mind that my designations re "form" status are based on my interpretation of how VDW worked - you'd be much better off using VDW examples.

DuckandDive DuckandDive

Careful, VDW is known to have died some years ago and I hope I've a lot of years left! (That said, every second commercial on the tv seems to talk about "the way to go" as part of selling funeral plans, which is a reminder, as if we needed it, as to the one true "certainty" we all face.)
Click to expand...
R rave154 It seems to be the case that in VDW's very first example, the Prominent King race (Erins Food Irish Champion Hurdle), he showed from the 5 possibles 2 non form horses, 2 form horses and 1 horse (the fav Beacon Light) who's form status has been much discussed with VDW categorically stating it was "well out of it".

I've seen lots of people disagree on this example, because on the face of it how can a horse who finished a close 2nd in a more valuable race than another be a non-form horse when that other horse ran 2nd by 5 lengths in a lower value race be a form horse?

Personally I've yet to see a conclusive answer as to the form status VDW actually gave to Beacon Light in that race. But I can see how his form can be taken as a downturn given he had been winning plenty of races that season and was dropped in class against Sea Pigeon under favoured conditions but couldn't stay in front much longer than to the last hurdle.

And then he was going up in class a long way for the Erin.

Prominent King had run just twice that season. First time over the wrong distance in moderate class but ran 2nd, then dropped to a very low value event but up against a form horse dropping a long way in class and giving that horse a lot of weight. PK couldn't get past Drumgora despite looking dangerous in the last few furlongs.

My thoughts on this are that PK's recent form seemed to be preparation runs. Where as Beacon Light had already collected several big prizes and failed to collect a lesser prize when dropped in class suggesting his 5 runs in a few months had caught up with him by mid Feb.
 
Bad day at the office today. And of course completely galling to see today's big handicap won by the very same connections and jockey as the horse I backed in yesterday's big handicap.

And it came from the Wokingham as 3 of my book did. :(
 
Tufnel said:
Bad day at the office today. And of course completely galling to see today's big handicap won by the very same connections and jockey as the horse I backed in yesterday's big handicap.

And it came from the Wokingham as 3 of my book did. :(
Click to expand...
I liked Mtbahay who was well in on my Bench Mark Handicap Post form the Wokingham . Did well to finish 3rd at 14/1 . I completely overlooked Evening Saigon who only on Par according to my Benchmark Handicap

Revised Race Summary & Timeform Chart (Top 12 & Notables)​

Note: CCR Ratings Formula and PR% are locked in. Historical TFR/Tfig for the last three runs will populate as past cards are processed.

HorseTFR (L3)Tfig (L3)BHA (Off / New)PR %CCR RatingFSP %True AdvFull Timeform Comment
Double Rush118+ / - / -111 / - / -105 / 110PendingPending100.04%+1 to +2 lbscame exactly the same route as last year's beaten favourite More Thunder had, wins at Newmarket at the Craven and Guineas meetings and completed the hat-trick that just eluded him, all 3 of his wins coming from higher marks than that horse too, which suggests that Double Rush is set for a similarly rewarding future in group company, expertly campaigned by the Balding team since inheriting him from Charles Hills over the winter; mid-field, pushed along over 2f out, led over 1f out, edged left, driven out; this form is pretty much on a par with what the principals in the Jubilee achieved earlier in the afternoon, so he's very much earned a shot at the July Cup, the upward trajectory of his form so far suggesting he can bridge the gap to the highest level at some stage this season.
Completely Random111+ / - / -104 / - / -98 / 102PendingPending102.80%+6.5 lbswas able to race from the same mark as when shaping well when fifth in this race last year, that in spite of 2 wins on all-weather over the winter for this rider suggesting he's an improved horse since and he produced easily his best effort on turf in first-time cheekpieces after 6 weeks off, doing well to get as close as he did given how much ground he had to make up having been settled in last; raced well off the pace, headway from 2f out, finished well; he's going to be among the pick of the weights should connections fancy a crack at the Bunbury Cup, but his all-weather form suggests he won't be handicapped out of things from his new mark either.
Soldier's Tree116 / - / -109 / - / -107 / 108PendingPending99.96%+2 lbsis a classier example of a profile seen countless times at a lower level over the last couple of years in that he's thriving for the switch to James Owen, stepping up on his close third in listed company the time before off such a big weight; mid-field, headway 2f out, challenged over 1f out, kept on; this form isn't far off what the winner achieved and he's clearly up to listed and minor pattern standard.
Far Above Dream107+ / - / -101 / - / -99 / 99PendingPending100.53%+4.3 lbsmight have had his winning run ended, but it would be premature to take this as proof that the handicapper has caught up with him, this obviously a deep race while he wasn't seen to quite so good effect as the first 3 either; mid-field, travelled well, forced to switch under 2f out, stayed on; 2 of those ahead of him are likely to go elsewhere so the fact that he's 3 from 3 at Goodwood means he deserves to be top of the shortlist at this stage for the Stewards' Cup.
Mitbaahy109 / - / -102 / - / -104 / 104PendingPending100.26%+12 lbshas stood little racing in recent seasons but showed that plenty of ability remains making a belated handicap debut in first-time tongue strap after 12 weeks off (undergone another breathing operation since last seen), but his profile and tardiness away from the stalls means it remains to be seen if he can build on this; very slowly away, held up, progress from 2f out, stayed on, nearest at the finish.
Binhareer105+ / - / -99 / - / -104 / 103PendingPending100.58%Parwas sent off favourite on the back of his really eye-catching reappearance at York and shaped as if still in good form, just not seen to best effect, taking a bit too long to get going faced with firmer ground than previously and having his momentum checked when beginning to make his move; waited with, took strong hold, effort when short of room under 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, late headway; he's another with form that suggests he'll be a player at listed/Group level, while his effectiveness on going softer than good means he could be worth keeping fresh for an autumn campaign.
Evening Saigon98 / - / -92 / - / -97 / 96PendingPending99.44%Parhas some strong form, having chased home the fourth (who had won again since) at Goodwood last time and ran creditably in first-time cheekpieces, proving himself on firmish ground; held up, ridden over 2f out, stayed on; he's 2 from 2 on all-weather, one of those wins at Newcastle and there's a class 2 sprint handicap there on Northumberland Plate day that should suit.
Realign96 / - / -90 / - / -97 / 98PendingPending99.60%Parwas easy to back under a penalty (needed that to make the cut) and wasn't disgraced, though at the same time just didn't seem good enough in this sort of handicap; held up, headway over 2f out, chased leaders inside final 1f, effort flattened out.
Sondad96+ / - / -89 / - / -97 / 98PendingPending99.33%Parwas another who needed the penalty picked up last time to make he cut and he remains in good form, doing all he could given his tack position; raced far side, mid-field, ridden over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, weakened final 1f, first home in group; he could still get back on the up on a more level playing field.
Dubai Bling100+ / - / -94 / - / -102 / 101PendingPending98.99%+3.5 lbsput himself on the back foot at the start once again, but it doesn't disguise the fact that he's a progressive sprinter and he shaped quite a lot better than the bare result; awkward leaving stalls, held up, headway when had to wait for gap over 1f out, switched final 1f, kept on, finished with running left; there are more races to be won with him.
Fast Track Harry94 / - / -88 / - / -97 / 95PendingPending98.68%Paris finding it tougher in this sort of company having gone up in the weights for 2 wins in much smaller fields on all-weather at the start of the year; prominent, ridden over 2f out, weakened final 100 yds.
Two Tribes100+ / - / -94 / - / -103 / 102PendingPending100.36%Parhas already shown himself to be as good as ever in Dubai this year and wasn't seen to best effect after 4 months off; raced far side, held up, ridden 2f out, stayed on; he'll be suited by a return to 7f.
🟢 Apollo One86+ / - / -80 / - / -97 / 94PendingPending97.90%Drop Gradegot little chance to show whether he's back in form; tracked sole rival on stand rail, headway 2f out, stayed on, had a hopeless task from position.

It will be interesting to see how the BHA Handicapper revises their figures on Tuesday

Here is a provisional take on today’s race
Your read on Mitbaahy is completely validated by the telemetry. He and Completely Random just provided absolute, real-world proof of why we hunt Euclidean outliers. Both of them were flagged as massive Euclidean anomalies in the Wokingham, and they just repeated that exact same freakish exertion profile here in the Stewards' Cup.

Here is the predictive mechanical breakdown of today's race.

Step 1: Tactical Front-End Mapping (Analiese Blueprint)​

The 6f track at Goodwood was riding fast (Time Index: 7.0/10), setting up a blistering speed test.

  • The Zero-Line: Invictus Gold scorched the turf early, establishing the zero-line with a flying 13.57s opening furlong before completely emptying out.
  • The Hidden Yardage (Pace/Position): On a 6f sprint scale, 0.167s = 1 length = 3 lbs.
    • Completely Random (4th): Dropped out the back, clocking 14.53s early. He forfeited 0.96 seconds (5.74 lengths) to the blistering pace. At 3 lbs per length, he spotted the field a colossal +17.2 lbs.
    • Mitbaahy (3rd): Sat right with him, clocking 14.52s. Forfeited 0.95s (5.68 lengths) = +17.1 lbs.
    • Evening Saigon (1st): Tracked the pace, clocking 13.96s. Forfeited 0.39s (2.33 lengths) = +7.0 lbs.
    • Stratusnine (2nd): Sat very handy, clocking 13.82s. Forfeited just 0.25s (1.49 lengths) = +4.5 lbs.

Step 2: The Predictive Dual-Metric Flags (Target Matrix)​

Without the BHA anchor in place yet, we evaluate the raw mechanical output to see who generated the most value.

🔴 The Euclidean Output (The Unicorn Hunter)​

  • Flagged: Mitbaahy (IRE), Completely Random (GB), & Stratusnine (IRE)
  • Why: Mitbaahy and Completely Random are doing mathematically impossible things from the rear of the field. To close into a 7.0/10 pace after spotting the leaders 17 lbs of physical ground is absurd. Mitbaahy generated a 3.32 Kinematic Yield (7.88m stride / 2.37sps) and a 99.48% FSP. Completely Random was right there with him, posting a 3.40 Yield (7.99m / 2.35sps) and the highest late kick of the top finishers at 100.43% FSP.
  • Stratusnine also triggers a massive Euclidean spike for a different reason: his stride geometry is terrifying. He generated a freakish 3.59 Kinematic Yield driven by an 8.19m average stride length. That is a Group 1 mechanical weapon hiding in a handicap.

🔵 The Manhattan Output (The Grid Evaluator)​

  • Flagged: Evening Saigon (IRE)
  • Why: The Manhattan grid loves structural perfection, and Evening Saigon delivered exactly that to win the race. He sat in the optimal tactical position (+7.0 lb pace deficit), conserved energy, and generated a perfectly robust 3.18 Kinematic Yield (7.74m / 2.43sps). He didn't have to do anything freakish to win; he just executed a mathematically flawless, highly reliable sprint.

Predictive Target Matrix (Top 4 Finishers)​

HorseOR (Ran Off)1f SplitHidden Penalty (Pace)Avg StrideAvg FreqKinematic YieldFSP %Algorithmic Flag
Evening Saigon9613.96s+7.0 lbs7.74m2.43sps3.1898.24%🔵 Manhattan
Stratusnine10113.82s+4.5 lbs8.19m2.28sps3.5998.08%🔴 Euclidean
Mitbaahy10414.52s+17.1 lbs7.88m2.37sps3.3299.48%🔴 Euclidean
Completely Random10214.53s+17.2 lbs7.99m2.35sps3.40100.43%🔴 Euclidean
 
Chesham said:
I liked Mtbahay who was well in on my Bench Mark Handicap Post form the Wokingham . Did well to finish 3rd at 14/1 . I completely overlooked Evening Saigon who only on Par according to my Benchmark Handicap

Revised Race Summary & Timeform Chart (Top 12 & Notables)​

Note: CCR Ratings Formula and PR% are locked in. Historical TFR/Tfig for the last three runs will populate as past cards are processed.

HorseTFR (L3)Tfig (L3)BHA (Off / New)PR %CCR RatingFSP %True AdvFull Timeform Comment
Double Rush118+ / - / -111 / - / -105 / 110PendingPending100.04%+1 to +2 lbscame exactly the same route as last year's beaten favourite More Thunder had, wins at Newmarket at the Craven and Guineas meetings and completed the hat-trick that just eluded him, all 3 of his wins coming from higher marks than that horse too, which suggests that Double Rush is set for a similarly rewarding future in group company, expertly campaigned by the Balding team since inheriting him from Charles Hills over the winter; mid-field, pushed along over 2f out, led over 1f out, edged left, driven out; this form is pretty much on a par with what the principals in the Jubilee achieved earlier in the afternoon, so he's very much earned a shot at the July Cup, the upward trajectory of his form so far suggesting he can bridge the gap to the highest level at some stage this season.
Completely Random111+ / - / -104 / - / -98 / 102PendingPending102.80%+6.5 lbswas able to race from the same mark as when shaping well when fifth in this race last year, that in spite of 2 wins on all-weather over the winter for this rider suggesting he's an improved horse since and he produced easily his best effort on turf in first-time cheekpieces after 6 weeks off, doing well to get as close as he did given how much ground he had to make up having been settled in last; raced well off the pace, headway from 2f out, finished well; he's going to be among the pick of the weights should connections fancy a crack at the Bunbury Cup, but his all-weather form suggests he won't be handicapped out of things from his new mark either.
Soldier's Tree116 / - / -109 / - / -107 / 108PendingPending99.96%+2 lbsis a classier example of a profile seen countless times at a lower level over the last couple of years in that he's thriving for the switch to James Owen, stepping up on his close third in listed company the time before off such a big weight; mid-field, headway 2f out, challenged over 1f out, kept on; this form isn't far off what the winner achieved and he's clearly up to listed and minor pattern standard.
Far Above Dream107+ / - / -101 / - / -99 / 99PendingPending100.53%+4.3 lbsmight have had his winning run ended, but it would be premature to take this as proof that the handicapper has caught up with him, this obviously a deep race while he wasn't seen to quite so good effect as the first 3 either; mid-field, travelled well, forced to switch under 2f out, stayed on; 2 of those ahead of him are likely to go elsewhere so the fact that he's 3 from 3 at Goodwood means he deserves to be top of the shortlist at this stage for the Stewards' Cup.
Mitbaahy109 / - / -102 / - / -104 / 104PendingPending100.26%+12 lbshas stood little racing in recent seasons but showed that plenty of ability remains making a belated handicap debut in first-time tongue strap after 12 weeks off (undergone another breathing operation since last seen), but his profile and tardiness away from the stalls means it remains to be seen if he can build on this; very slowly away, held up, progress from 2f out, stayed on, nearest at the finish.
Binhareer105+ / - / -99 / - / -104 / 103PendingPending100.58%Parwas sent off favourite on the back of his really eye-catching reappearance at York and shaped as if still in good form, just not seen to best effect, taking a bit too long to get going faced with firmer ground than previously and having his momentum checked when beginning to make his move; waited with, took strong hold, effort when short of room under 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, late headway; he's another with form that suggests he'll be a player at listed/Group level, while his effectiveness on going softer than good means he could be worth keeping fresh for an autumn campaign.
Evening Saigon98 / - / -92 / - / -97 / 96PendingPending99.44%Parhas some strong form, having chased home the fourth (who had won again since) at Goodwood last time and ran creditably in first-time cheekpieces, proving himself on firmish ground; held up, ridden over 2f out, stayed on; he's 2 from 2 on all-weather, one of those wins at Newcastle and there's a class 2 sprint handicap there on Northumberland Plate day that should suit.
Realign96 / - / -90 / - / -97 / 98PendingPending99.60%Parwas easy to back under a penalty (needed that to make the cut) and wasn't disgraced, though at the same time just didn't seem good enough in this sort of handicap; held up, headway over 2f out, chased leaders inside final 1f, effort flattened out.
Sondad96+ / - / -89 / - / -97 / 98PendingPending99.33%Parwas another who needed the penalty picked up last time to make he cut and he remains in good form, doing all he could given his tack position; raced far side, mid-field, ridden over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, weakened final 1f, first home in group; he could still get back on the up on a more level playing field.
Dubai Bling100+ / - / -94 / - / -102 / 101PendingPending98.99%+3.5 lbsput himself on the back foot at the start once again, but it doesn't disguise the fact that he's a progressive sprinter and he shaped quite a lot better than the bare result; awkward leaving stalls, held up, headway when had to wait for gap over 1f out, switched final 1f, kept on, finished with running left; there are more races to be won with him.
Fast Track Harry94 / - / -88 / - / -97 / 95PendingPending98.68%Paris finding it tougher in this sort of company having gone up in the weights for 2 wins in much smaller fields on all-weather at the start of the year; prominent, ridden over 2f out, weakened final 100 yds.
Two Tribes100+ / - / -94 / - / -103 / 102PendingPending100.36%Parhas already shown himself to be as good as ever in Dubai this year and wasn't seen to best effect after 4 months off; raced far side, held up, ridden 2f out, stayed on; he'll be suited by a return to 7f.
🟢 Apollo One86+ / - / -80 / - / -97 / 94PendingPending97.90%Drop Gradegot little chance to show whether he's back in form; tracked sole rival on stand rail, headway 2f out, stayed on, had a hopeless task from position.

It will be interesting to see how the BHA Handicapper revises their figures on Tuesday

Here is a provisional take on today’s race
Your read on Mitbaahy is completely validated by the telemetry. He and Completely Random just provided absolute, real-world proof of why we hunt Euclidean outliers. Both of them were flagged as massive Euclidean anomalies in the Wokingham, and they just repeated that exact same freakish exertion profile here in the Stewards' Cup.

Here is the predictive mechanical breakdown of today's race.

Step 1: Tactical Front-End Mapping (Analiese Blueprint)​

The 6f track at Goodwood was riding fast (Time Index: 7.0/10), setting up a blistering speed test.

  • The Zero-Line: Invictus Gold scorched the turf early, establishing the zero-line with a flying 13.57s opening furlong before completely emptying out.
  • The Hidden Yardage (Pace/Position):On a 6f sprint scale, 0.167s = 1 length = 3 lbs.
    • Completely Random (4th): Dropped out the back, clocking 14.53s early. He forfeited 0.96 seconds (5.74 lengths) to the blistering pace. At 3 lbs per length, he spotted the field a colossal +17.2 lbs.
    • Mitbaahy (3rd): Sat right with him, clocking 14.52s. Forfeited 0.95s (5.68 lengths) = +17.1 lbs.
    • Evening Saigon (1st): Tracked the pace, clocking 13.96s. Forfeited 0.39s (2.33 lengths) = +7.0 lbs.
    • Stratusnine (2nd): Sat very handy, clocking 13.82s. Forfeited just 0.25s (1.49 lengths) = +4.5 lbs.

Step 2: The Predictive Dual-Metric Flags (Target Matrix)​

Without the BHA anchor in place yet, we evaluate the raw mechanical output to see who generated the most value.

🔴 The Euclidean Output (The Unicorn Hunter)​

  • Flagged: Mitbaahy (IRE), Completely Random (GB), & Stratusnine (IRE)
  • Why: Mitbaahy and Completely Random are doing mathematically impossible things from the rear of the field. To close into a 7.0/10 pace after spotting the leaders 17 lbs of physical ground is absurd. Mitbaahy generated a 3.32 Kinematic Yield (7.88m stride / 2.37sps) and a 99.48% FSP. Completely Random was right there with him, posting a 3.40 Yield (7.99m / 2.35sps) and the highest late kick of the top finishers at 100.43% FSP.
  • Stratusnine also triggers a massive Euclidean spike for a different reason: his stride geometry is terrifying. He generated a freakish 3.59 Kinematic Yield driven by an 8.19m average stride length. That is a Group 1 mechanical weapon hiding in a handicap.

🔵 The Manhattan Output (The Grid Evaluator)​

  • Flagged: Evening Saigon (IRE)
  • Why: The Manhattan grid loves structural perfection, and Evening Saigon delivered exactly that to win the race. He sat in the optimal tactical position (+7.0 lb pace deficit), conserved energy, and generated a perfectly robust 3.18 Kinematic Yield (7.74m / 2.43sps). He didn't have to do anything freakish to win; he just executed a mathematically flawless, highly reliable sprint.

Predictive Target Matrix (Top 4 Finishers)​

HorseOR (Ran Off)1f SplitHidden Penalty (Pace)Avg StrideAvg FreqKinematic YieldFSP %Algorithmic Flag
Evening Saigon9613.96s+7.0 lbs7.74m2.43sps3.1898.24%🔵 Manhattan
Stratusnine10113.82s+4.5 lbs8.19m2.28sps3.5998.08%🔴 Euclidean
Mitbaahy10414.52s+17.1 lbs7.88m2.37sps3.3299.48%🔴 Euclidean
Completely Random10214.53s+17.2 lbs7.99m2.35sps3.40100.43%🔴 Euclidean
Click to expand...
I gave the Wathnan runner a look but failed to realise he was 6lb better off with one of my 4 for a head beating.

Tbh I kind of knew it was folly to try and snare the winner of this race as there were just too many horses who had shown they were up to winning a top sprint handicap at some stage this season. Anyone who watched the runs of certain horses in the Wokingham and in particular Completely Random's fast finishing 2nd at Ascot to the contrasting effort over 7f next time when Moore literally gave up at half way (as he can do when he decides it's a lost cause) surely should have seen it was a case of too competitive today. I know I deep down I did, but went ahead anyway. Nearly came off.
 
JennyK said:
Did you look at the 5.10 Newmarket, T Tufnel? There are more runners in the 7.30 Hamilton but it looks similarly manageable, unlike the 6.00 Doncaster where I have no interest.
Click to expand...
I hadn't looked at the 7:30 until this evening. I dodged the Newmarket 5:25 but I see the class/form runner finally got his head in front again.

In the Hamilton 7:30 it looks like the top 3 horses in the weights have it between them, unless one of the others suddenly find their best form again.

I'd say there is conflict here in what I would presume you have as the class/form horse Arklow Lad (or possibly just Purosangue shading AL as class/form) and Corrola Point as AL is worse off at the weights with CP for finishing behind him (though the claimer helps out) plus AL seems to need the ground to be riding softer.

AL went up in class from his 5th behind Corrola Point to win at Epsom of good to soft with less weight. Now dropping in class.
Corrola Point is also dropping in class having run in same class last twice and and improved as fav (in both races).
Purosangue was hampered at the start last time when behind Corrola Point and is also now 5lb better off with Arklow Lad for Pontefract when P was fav.

So it's conflict I think. I would say Corrola Point is the most probable winner, but AL or P could also have good chances of beating him.

Backing all 3 in a book at current prices is a roughly 8/11 bet. I don't feel confident enough to risk that, especially after the day I've had so far.

To make matters worse, before the fillies race at Goodwood today I was recalling what Dylan said yesterday (after riding another winner) about his mount in the race today feeling like she needed the run first time out this season when 2nd to a bigger priced rival and had come on for that.

Needless to say watching Goodie Two Shoes get up at 8/1 was another damn I didn't back that moment.
 

RPR		RPRClassAbilityAdj RPRFinal URM
Soldiers Tree115115979.6666666666667114193.666666666667
Dubai Bling111111575.6666666666667110185.666666666667
Northern Champion107107673.333333333333397170.333333333333
Mitbaahy116110978.3333333333333111189.333333333333
West Acre114105675100175
Sondad105105571.6666666666667107178.666666666667
Run Boy Run107107573112185
Two Tribes109109574.3333333333333115189.333333333333
Get It11195570.3333333333333103173.333333333333
Completely Random109109574.3333333333333113187.333333333333
Garfield Shadow10610670.6666666666667103173.666666666667
Tuco Salamanca9393764.333333333333390154.333333333333
Stratusnine105105571.6666666666667107178.666666666667
Annaf116102574.3333333333333107181.333333333333
Invictus Gold107104572108180
Fandom105103571105176
Far Above Dream106106572.3333333333333106178.333333333333
Hammer The Hammer109100571.3333333333333105176.333333333333
Realign101101468.6666666666667100168.666666666667
Flash Harry1068756689155
Nberkshire Whisper100100568.3333333333333104172.333333333333
Candy104104571113184
Ferrous105105571.6666666666667114185.666666666667
King Of Light104104571110181
Dark Thirty103102570111181
Evening Saigon102102469.3333333333333113182.333333333333
Gold Star Hero9696565.6666666666667101166.666666666667
Toca Madera10499569.3333333333333102171.333333333333
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This was my take on The Stewards Cup the class cut is 180 so any horse in that zone can win i picked Mitbaahy for E/W where as if i had looked further down Evening Saigon had the better Adj RP Dropped 11lb from his best of 3 runs which is a massive drop up in class form class 3
 
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T Tufnel

My point is that races like those are a lot easier than the Stewards. Partly it is because of far fewer runners but also there is much less "froth", by which I mean non-handicap and overseas form. When all the runners have a string of runs in UK handicaps behind them, and haven't been involved in races abroad, we know where we stand.
 
Shocking ride by Shane Gray on Saxon's Grace in the last at Hamilton. Absolutely cantering in the last 3 furlongs yet he waited forever to unleash the horse which flew when asked and surely would have won a length or more if he'd been let go from the tight hold.

Stewards should really be dishing out penalties there because although the horse was well backed, it really wasn't given a chance to win.

Watch the replay and see what you think. I'm amazed the pundits didn't say anything.
 
Tufnel said:
Shocking ride by Shane Gray on Saxon's Grace in the last at Hamilton. Absolutely cantering in the last 3 furlongs yet he waited forever to unleash the horse which flew when asked and surely would have won a length or more if he'd been let go from the tight hold.

Stewards should really be dishing out penalties there because although the horse was well backed, it really wasn't given a chance to win.

Watch the replay and see what you think. I'm amazed the pundits didn't say anything.
Click to expand...
sounds SUSS as F*ck ( what happened, not your view of it ), makes me wonder if its even worth pursuing

this line of investigation, things have changed so much
 
Tufnel said:
Shocking ride by Shane Gray on Saxon's Grace in the last at Hamilton. Absolutely cantering in the last 3 furlongs yet he waited forever to unleash the horse which flew when asked and surely would have won a length or more if he'd been let go from the tight hold.

Stewards should really be dishing out penalties there because although the horse was well backed, it really wasn't given a chance to win.

Watch the replay and see what you think. I'm amazed the pundits didn't say anything.
Click to expand...
T Tufnel The horse had never been over a trip further than 7f before, I'd guess the instructions from the trainer would have been to ride it cold early to get the trip.

1785615819607.png
 
I watched the Replay i seemed everytime a gap appeared he waited then when he went he had to restrain the horse shocking ride in my opiion many times he could have gone but did not
 
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