I was actually referring more to the probable or likely winners in his evaluations that he said he left. Though of course in the Roushayd races he was highlighting to those who could spot it, that the form had worked out in his races leading up to the Old Newton Cup.
Class/form horses
- Thread starter JennyK
- Start date
I'm saying if his probables or class/form selections won significantly more than 50% of the time, then the only way you would leave 80% of ALL the probables/class/forms whilst knowing that strike rate would be if most of them were odds on wher you have to be very accurate to make any profit.
He never it made it clear. But if there factors other than odds available as to what he deemed a good thing to back then surely he'd see those factors long before deciding a runner was a likely winner? So why waste the time going on with the race?
Hi JennyK, alas i clicked on the "envelope" and there is nowhere to click to start a message ( perhaps because i am relatively new?), would it be possible for yourself to send me a message to get the ball rolling? cheers in advance
R rave154
I tried to do what you suggested but the message system seems to recognise your username but not to allow me to send you a message. Puzzling.
You could try:
JennyK1981 - Wattpad
"Jenny and Margaret" series based on real teenager (Jenny, not her real first name) met when she was in a psychiatric hospital under section having k...www.wattpad.com
which includes my email address.
omg, i appear like a right numpty here dont i ( very odd considering i write software for a living ..... dont EVEN !! lol )
ok, where is the @ sign ( i know where it is on the keybaord, obv lol )
if it gets any worse i will be reading "Spot goes to the Farm"
anyways, enough dilly dallying, ive seen reference to " is a form horse", also, "is a form horse vdw style" etc,
i'm probably miles off here, but, how is the following, for a the definition of a "form horse" vdw style...
say the horse we're evaluating in his lto race, with 20 runners, was 7th in the betting, ie he had 6 other horses that were a shorter price than he was,
if that horse finished 7th or better then he is deemed to be a "form horse", however if he finished 8th or worse then he is deemed to be a "non form horse"
am i even close to your definition?
cheers,
David
i'm probably miles off here, but, how is the following, for a the definition of a "form horse" vdw style...
say the horse we're evaluating in his lto race, with 20 runners, was 7th in the betting, ie he had 6 other horses that were a shorter price than he was,
if that horse finished 7th or better then he is deemed to be a "form horse", however if he finished 8th or worse then he is deemed to be a "non form horse"
am i even close to your definition?
cheers,
David
gerry
Mare
What i think a lot of people do
R
rave154 is they a lot of the time bet there horses and they just say well no winners rubbish so change systems a lot but they should more think good form is if the horse runs a decent race say its a 6fur race if the horse finishes anywhere could be 3rd or 8th but is only beat 2.5 lengths or less i would say run its race. Maybe over further like say mile before race run i am now looking for my horse to be whin in 4 lengths of winner to be satisfied it run a decent race they cant all win or just get beat in photos so i would say a form horse is being close up no matter the finishing places. At least that way you know your picking is close and does not need changing thoughts.
JennyK
Gelding
R
rave154
I'll gladly tell you what anyone needs to do to try to find out how VDW rated a horse's "form" status.
1) Note how VDW described form in his piece published early in 1981 and reprinted in Tony Peach's "The Golden Years of Van Der Wheil" as item 39.
2) With that in mind, study the twenty examples where he specifically described some horses as "form" horses and others as not. They are in articles reprinted in Tony Peach's "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune", pages 15 to 25.
3) Refine conclusions drawn from (2) by testing them on VDW's earlier selections and, particularly important, his later ones, up to and including Braashee and Zilzal in 1989, found in VDW's booklet "Systematic Betting" and another Tony Peach compilation, "Betting the VDW Way".
And bear in mind what VDW wrote about isolating the class/form horse, page 16 of "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune". Given that, from VDW's point of view, the class aspect of class/form was straightforward, it was the form aspect that he knew was much less so, which I suggest indicates that it was rather more complex than your suggestion.
Judging by their posts and particularly their selections, I think two contributors to the long defunct Gummy forum worked it out, as I hope I have. Many of their posts (Guest and Lee) are to be found in the Gummy archive on this forum.
I'll gladly tell you what anyone needs to do to try to find out how VDW rated a horse's "form" status.
1) Note how VDW described form in his piece published early in 1981 and reprinted in Tony Peach's "The Golden Years of Van Der Wheil" as item 39.
2) With that in mind, study the twenty examples where he specifically described some horses as "form" horses and others as not. They are in articles reprinted in Tony Peach's "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune", pages 15 to 25.
3) Refine conclusions drawn from (2) by testing them on VDW's earlier selections and, particularly important, his later ones, up to and including Braashee and Zilzal in 1989, found in VDW's booklet "Systematic Betting" and another Tony Peach compilation, "Betting the VDW Way".
And bear in mind what VDW wrote about isolating the class/form horse, page 16 of "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune". Given that, from VDW's point of view, the class aspect of class/form was straightforward, it was the form aspect that he knew was much less so, which I suggest indicates that it was rather more complex than your suggestion.
Judging by their posts and particularly their selections, I think two contributors to the long defunct Gummy forum worked it out, as I hope I have. Many of their posts (Guest and Lee) are to be found in the Gummy archive on this forum.
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DuckandDive
Mare
You're in the right place, ask away.
JennyK is the V.D.W. person on here. (some may say, is actually V.D.W)
JennyK
Gelding
R
rave154
As
Leodis says ... you could take my post on the 7.15 Hamilton, 17/07/26, post 1405 on this thread, as an example. But do bear in mind that my designations re "form" status are based on my interpretation of how VDW worked - you'd be much better off using VDW examples.
DuckandDive
Careful, VDW is known to have died some years ago and I hope I've a lot of years left! (That said, every second commercial on the tv seems to talk about "the way to go" as part of selling funeral plans, which is a reminder, as if we needed it, as to the one true "certainty" we all face.)
As
Leodis says ... you could take my post on the 7.15 Hamilton, 17/07/26, post 1405 on this thread, as an example. But do bear in mind that my designations re "form" status are based on my interpretation of how VDW worked - you'd be much better off using VDW examples.
DuckandDiveCareful, VDW is known to have died some years ago and I hope I've a lot of years left! (That said, every second commercial on the tv seems to talk about "the way to go" as part of selling funeral plans, which is a reminder, as if we needed it, as to the one true "certainty" we all face.)
And Taxes :-(R rave154
As
Careful, VDW is known to have died some years ago and I hope I've a lot of years left! (That said, every second commercial on the tv seems to talk about "the way to go" as part of selling funeral plans, which is a reminder, as if we needed it, as to the one true "certainty" we all face.)
DuckandDive
Mare
been "in" it since march 1981, i think that was the date of the full reprint in the raceform handicap book of " VDW spells it all out", centre spread if i recall correctly.