With regards to class dropping, in Canny Danny's case he had dropped in class from a 2nd as 13/2 4th in the betting to Burrough Hill Lad (fav) to the SGB Chase at Ascot carrying more weight as would nearly always be the case. He beat Fortinas Express at Ascot who had been 4th in the same higher class race as Canny Danny LTO and had won his 3 previous races. FE was 5th in the betting at 10/1 rec 8 lb from CD.In my view some very important points in your last post, T Tufnel.
"If the class/form horse is the highest ability rated form horse in the race ...."
I have long believed that, but now think it needs qualification. Working my way through the examples with, hopefully, greater understanding than when I first assembled the relevant data and worked on them, I think while that is generally correct, it is necessary to qualify it thus: the class/form horses is the highest ability rated consistent form horse in the race". That is tentative as so far I have only re-examined, with this additional idea in mind, ten of the examples and until I've done the rest it remains tentative.
"Also, why does a class dropper who won that higher class race last time out need key horse support under those circumstances?"
It is not just with winning performances, eg Roushayd's, that VDW seemed to require it. This was first noted by Lee, I think, and working through the examples where VDW said he had backed a horse (or, without actually saying that, described it as a "certainty" or "outstanding bet" which implies he did) it seems to have been a correct observation. The reason, I assume, is to provide some support to what otherwise might seem a surprising result. It is one thing for a horse to win or run well in a race of higher class than might be expected; surprises are never far away in racing. But although the race itself was a high class one relative to the one being considered, the performance would be under-written if in doing so the key horse from that race seemed to have come into it in good form and perhaps made less impressive if otherwise.
If as seems to me so far that Lee's observation was generally correct, it opens up a number of questions, including should the assumption be nuanced where the horse concerned won, or didn't (like Roushayd); what does good form mean, operationally (Lee seems to have worked on the basis of 3s - finished lto in the first three places and was in the first three in the betting each time); does the lack of key horse support impact on class/form horse status or just on whether a class/form horse should be backed or not?
Beneath all of that is the question did VDW have a sophisticated (and successful) approach or did he merely back-select horses with certain characteristics to illustrate a number of not necessarily connected ideas about which he wrote over several years? As far as I can see, there is only one way to form a confident judgement about that - to look on each selection as a puzzle to be solved but where each solution needs to be consistent across the whole range of relevant selections. (Which of course raises yet another question - what are relevant selections?)
As I write this two images come to mind from different media. Nicholas Cage starred in National Treasure, in which he followed clue after clue in the hope of finding hidden treasure. His sceptical father believed there was no such treasure, just a series of clues that ultimately led nowhere. (And maybe, with VDW, we find our own "clues" from coincidences and that is all they are, not clues at all.) Second, Stanley Spencer. On Monday we went to Cookham again, to see the small exhibition of his East Anglian pictures, and of course it was another opportunity to see his unfinished Christ Preaching at Cookham Regatta. That is a huge canvas, with much completed but also sections with just outlines of what would have been there had he lived long enough to finish it. The question is, if one could complete the VDW picture, as it were, would it be a masterpiece of how successfully to analyse races, or would "completion" show it was merely an assembly of examples which, individually and back-fitted, make sense, but are not "treasure" at all.
ps
The 3rd complete paragraph on page 5 of Betting The VDW Way is I think relevant re key horse support. It refers to "quality of horses engaged" not form, but the two are not completely disassociated.
But Canny Danny was taking a class of race drop at Sandown and no other horse in that Sandown event was dropping in class other than the outside Little Polvier who'd finished 11th of 18 in the Welsh National class 191.
And the opposition in the SGB, in the finish or as a field were better than the Sandown race.
The paragraph you refer to in Betting The VDW Way, to my mind at least, is talking about the class of race in which a horse competes being different to the class of horses engaged in that race. In his later return article to Roushayd he made an important extra point about Shimshek and Ala Hanouk "not having much in the way of class (AS HORSES)" which seemed a clear reference to me that the much higher class of races they had been running in were very different to their ability ratings.
And his view on that seems to be confirmed in the very first example Prominent King. PK's last race was a very low class handicap in monetary terms, but the horse he tried to give so much weight to was dropping from a 3rd (at big odds and not first 3 of the betting) in a much higher class race in money terms than even the Erin never mind the paltry 600 quid on offer for Tick Nock Handicap.
Beacon Light's opposition/key horses had been better (on VDW's class ratings) in the higher class races he had run in before Sandown's Oteley Hurdle than Sea Pigeon, which compounded the issue. BL had been dropped to collect again but was beaten by a horse coming from a lower class win (lower class than others BL had beaten recently) and with a lower ability rating than BL.
Also interesting the the weights in the SGB were also raised overnight to the tune of 15 lb so CD would have carried 10-7 in that race also but for them going up. It didn't hinder him in victory though of course weights only go up because horse rated much higher on the handicap came out. And that lessens the strength of opposition to various degrees depending on the form and class of those withdrawn. Which is probably why VDW said he only bought the SCHB for the weekly publication of the framed weights (his words
Of course as you say
Just a point on your on going consistent form studies. Pegwell Bay still throws up a consistent form horse who was higher on ability rating, but was not classed as the class/form horse by VDW in Jim Thorpe. We know why he discarded him, but it wasn't for being inconsistent or out of form. It was distance and going at this level.
Which led me to an observation that may have some relevance in the context of Canny Danny being a class/form horse. Canny Danny had just recently won a race of class above his AR of 76. The Sandown race was class 103 and lower than the race CD won.
Jim Thorpe had also won a race of class above his AR of 52 in class 97. But the Mackeson was class 221.
So the comments VDW made about JT was given in the context of "At this level, has no chance."
