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Class/form horses

In my view some very important points in your last post, T Tufnel.

"If the class/form horse is the highest ability rated form horse in the race ...."

I have long believed that, but now think it needs qualification. Working my way through the examples with, hopefully, greater understanding than when I first assembled the relevant data and worked on them, I think while that is generally correct, it is necessary to qualify it thus: the class/form horses is the highest ability rated consistent form horse in the race". That is tentative as so far I have only re-examined, with this additional idea in mind, ten of the examples and until I've done the rest it remains tentative.

"Also, why does a class dropper who won that higher class race last time out need key horse support under those circumstances?"

It is not just with winning performances, eg Roushayd's, that VDW seemed to require it. This was first noted by Lee, I think, and working through the examples where VDW said he had backed a horse (or, without actually saying that, described it as a "certainty" or "outstanding bet" which implies he did) it seems to have been a correct observation. The reason, I assume, is to provide some support to what otherwise might seem a surprising result. It is one thing for a horse to win or run well in a race of higher class than might be expected; surprises are never far away in racing. But although the race itself was a high class one relative to the one being considered, the performance would be under-written if in doing so the key horse from that race seemed to have come into it in good form and perhaps made less impressive if otherwise.

If as seems to me so far that Lee's observation was generally correct, it opens up a number of questions, including should the assumption be nuanced where the horse concerned won, or didn't (like Roushayd); what does good form mean, operationally (Lee seems to have worked on the basis of 3s - finished lto in the first three places and was in the first three in the betting each time); does the lack of key horse support impact on class/form horse status or just on whether a class/form horse should be backed or not?

Beneath all of that is the question did VDW have a sophisticated (and successful) approach or did he merely back-select horses with certain characteristics to illustrate a number of not necessarily connected ideas about which he wrote over several years? As far as I can see, there is only one way to form a confident judgement about that - to look on each selection as a puzzle to be solved but where each solution needs to be consistent across the whole range of relevant selections. (Which of course raises yet another question - what are relevant selections?)

As I write this two images come to mind from different media. Nicholas Cage starred in National Treasure, in which he followed clue after clue in the hope of finding hidden treasure. His sceptical father believed there was no such treasure, just a series of clues that ultimately led nowhere. (And maybe, with VDW, we find our own "clues" from coincidences and that is all they are, not clues at all.) Second, Stanley Spencer. On Monday we went to Cookham again, to see the small exhibition of his East Anglian pictures, and of course it was another opportunity to see his unfinished Christ Preaching at Cookham Regatta. That is a huge canvas, with much completed but also sections with just outlines of what would have been there had he lived long enough to finish it. The question is, if one could complete the VDW picture, as it were, would it be a masterpiece of how successfully to analyse races, or would "completion" show it was merely an assembly of examples which, individually and back-fitted, make sense, but are not "treasure" at all.

ps

The 3rd complete paragraph on page 5 of Betting The VDW Way is I think relevant re key horse support. It refers to "quality of horses engaged" not form, but the two are not completely disassociated.
With regards to class dropping, in Canny Danny's case he had dropped in class from a 2nd as 13/2 4th in the betting to Burrough Hill Lad (fav) to the SGB Chase at Ascot carrying more weight as would nearly always be the case. He beat Fortinas Express at Ascot who had been 4th in the same higher class race as Canny Danny LTO and had won his 3 previous races. FE was 5th in the betting at 10/1 rec 8 lb from CD.

But Canny Danny was taking a class of race drop at Sandown and no other horse in that Sandown event was dropping in class other than the outside Little Polvier who'd finished 11th of 18 in the Welsh National class 191.

And the opposition in the SGB, in the finish or as a field were better than the Sandown race.

The paragraph you refer to in Betting The VDW Way, to my mind at least, is talking about the class of race in which a horse competes being different to the class of horses engaged in that race. In his later return article to Roushayd he made an important extra point about Shimshek and Ala Hanouk "not having much in the way of class (AS HORSES)" which seemed a clear reference to me that the much higher class of races they had been running in were very different to their ability ratings.

And his view on that seems to be confirmed in the very first example Prominent King. PK's last race was a very low class handicap in monetary terms, but the horse he tried to give so much weight to was dropping from a 3rd (at big odds and not first 3 of the betting) in a much higher class race in money terms than even the Erin never mind the paltry 600 quid on offer for Tick Nock Handicap.

Beacon Light's opposition/key horses had been better (on VDW's class ratings) in the higher class races he had run in before Sandown's Oteley Hurdle than Sea Pigeon, which compounded the issue. BL had been dropped to collect again but was beaten by a horse coming from a lower class win (lower class than others BL had beaten recently) and with a lower ability rating than BL.

Also interesting the the weights in the SGB were also raised overnight to the tune of 15 lb so CD would have carried 10-7 in that race also but for them going up. It didn't hinder him in victory though of course weights only go up because horse rated much higher on the handicap came out. And that lessens the strength of opposition to various degrees depending on the form and class of those withdrawn. Which is probably why VDW said he only bought the SCHB for the weekly publication of the framed weights (his words Chesham Chesham ) so that he could study well in advance as well as work out the top, middle and bottom of the framed weights NOT the weights after final decs.

Of course as you say JennyK JennyK we could just be chasing our tails. VDW always presented things in a positive light and chose to use days where the more obvious numerical pictures were shown. Early on he said Love From Verona was the only good thing (though those wanting more bets could have backed Gaffer on the same card too). But if he'd show LFV in the same way he did with Diamond's Edge or Little Owl, etc readers would rightly have been saying "Hang on a minute Mr Van Der Wheil. How can the horse with the second lowest ability rating in the race be "good thing?".

Just a point on your on going consistent form studies. Pegwell Bay still throws up a consistent form horse who was higher on ability rating, but was not classed as the class/form horse by VDW in Jim Thorpe. We know why he discarded him, but it wasn't for being inconsistent or out of form. It was distance and going at this level.

Which led me to an observation that may have some relevance in the context of Canny Danny being a class/form horse. Canny Danny had just recently won a race of class above his AR of 76. The Sandown race was class 103 and lower than the race CD won.
Jim Thorpe had also won a race of class above his AR of 52 in class 97. But the Mackeson was class 221.

So the comments VDW made about JT was given in the context of "At this level, has no chance."
 
Off course Canny Danny was better off with 10-7 giving West Tip just 7 lbs than carrying 11-11

If they had not raised the weights West Tip would have been well out of the Framed Handicap by some poundage, he would have been more than 7 lbs worse off . I don’t think the Trainer would have let West Tip

Even with the weights raised does anyone know if any of the runners were out of the Handicap and carrying more Lbs than they should have against eir Handicap Rating.(These days we are able to see if any runners are out of the handicap proper


Example from a recent race

View attachment 171579
Not sure the point you're making though. Had both horses run with the weights not being raised then the fact is CD would have been carrying just 10-7 and West Tip would have carried the same weight of 10-0. Though of course there would have been higher rated on official handicap horses in the race.

Because the weights went up, the only horse (from CD & WT) who was worse off in respect of weight carried was CD. Instead of giving West Tip 7lb he was giving him 25lbs.

What's the confusion in that?

Also had they carried 10-7 and 10-0 respectively then the SL ratings would have shifted dramatically in CD's favour seeing as they were based on weight carried.
 
What i would suggest is that your spending to much energy on the past races to give your self enough energy on the future take what you do know and run with it, Fine adjust to you feel got it close to what your looking for but going back once you have settled mind is killing your production going forward.
Any way that's my suggestion and moving on to today here one other thing to think about i remember roy keane was a class and form player and one of the most consistent at the game he went to celtic and declared himself after short period there i am finished and retired.
What does that tell you clearly that class form consistency do die away and its the here and now and the closer to now that matter most.
Right now back to today i thought 4 races where worth looking at today but none stuck out as massive must bets but enough to show interest on
the day.
1 56 YARMOUTH this race was tight but after looking through the race i thought DARKSIDE THUNDER was worth a interest the horses lack of winning power on grass clearly a worry but won enough races to say it knows how to win i think it will go close, but there one a lot bigger price been long time since tried so low and has ability UNDERWRITER sticking cheeks on it for first time this could surprise and these two will be my bets here to win with a pure clear cover bet on MASSIMO BLUE just on current form and running well.

5 15 YARMOUTH this race i found slightly easier but certainly not clear cut but i got it down to two COURT DRIVE and RAFFLES ANGEL just edging the first one but both bet to win. I think might just be the course form swayed me but not enough to not bet both.

2 08 BEVERLEY I was surprised i went for this being seller but being handicap the days racing found it as worth a look.
And it surprised me that i actually had feeling for this race and happy to bet both here MAO SHANG WONG and BEARWITH again the track form swayed me to first horse here but i really think these two will go well and i was happy to rest with both at odds.

4 18 BEVERLEY I made this race a battle between ALMARADA PRINCE and BRUMMELL and will be annoyed if not one of these wins it was close call but some thing told me the second horse is ready to go in so was slightly preferred of the two but had to bet both.

All these horses where in my top 5 ability rating for there races but surprising or not really as that just shorts the field for me only one is top ability rating out of them all and a couple are 5th on ability in my eyes so my ability rating i believe is more current yet still not enough to find the winners on its own.
 
What i would suggest is that your spending to much energy on the past races to give your self enough energy on the future take what you do know and run with it, Fine adjust to you feel got it close to what your looking for but going back once you have settled mind is killing your production going forward.
Any way that's my suggestion and moving on to today here one other thing to think about i remember roy keane was a class and form player and one of the most consistent at the game he went to celtic and declared himself after short period there i am finished and retired.
What does that tell you clearly that class form consistency do die away and its the here and now and the closer to now that matter most.
Right now back to today i thought 4 races where worth looking at today but none stuck out as massive must bets but enough to show interest on
the day.
1 56 YARMOUTH this race was tight but after looking through the race i thought DARKSIDE THUNDER was worth a interest the horses lack of winning power on grass clearly a worry but won enough races to say it knows how to win i think it will go close, but there one a lot bigger price been long time since tried so low and has ability UNDERWRITER sticking cheeks on it for first time this could surprise and these two will be my bets here to win with a pure clear cover bet on MASSIMO BLUE just on current form and running well.

5 15 YARMOUTH this race i found slightly easier but certainly not clear cut but i got it down to two COURT DRIVE and RAFFLES ANGEL just edging the first one but both bet to win. I think might just be the course form swayed me but not enough to not bet both.

2 08 BEVERLEY I was surprised i went for this being seller but being handicap the days racing found it as worth a look.
And it surprised me that i actually had feeling for this race and happy to bet both here MAO SHANG WONG and BEARWITH again the track form swayed me to first horse here but i really think these two will go well and i was happy to rest with both at odds.

4 18 BEVERLEY I made this race a battle between ALMARADA PRINCE and BRUMMELL and will be annoyed if not one of these wins it was close call but some thing told me the second horse is ready to go in so was slightly preferred of the two but had to bet both.

All these horses where in my top 5 ability rating for there races but surprising or not really as that just shorts the field for me only one is top ability rating out of them all and a couple are 5th on ability in my eyes so my ability rating i believe is more current yet still not enough to find the winners on its own.
I somewhat disagree with that view on looking back. Unless anyone can find the majority of answers and solutions to the problems in the VDW approach, then pushing forward with it will do nothing but lose one money.

Yes, if you're going to discard his ideas or go along with the fact that he lied about his personal status so why wouldn't he lie about being a successful punter, I can see pushing on with different approaches and ideas is the way to go. But even then, pushing on with ideas and putting money down on them before you know it's definitely the way to go long term will just lose one money in the same manner.

I think it's better to try ideas out on paper rather than risking money on them whilst still in beta mode. Something I learned from expensive experience.
 
I agree completely with what your saying T Tufnel but my point is if you do any puzzle you have a certain time scale to solve it.
Thats just basic sense from primery school to high school to uni you get time scale then have to go on time runs out.
So if he said the answer is out there on a race card 50 years seems a long puzzle to me.
So you try it for long enough then say ok i cant get all the puzzle but i am close so i need to write down my thoughts not his yours based on his and say right this is where i begin my journey no looking back no wondering solid foundation of logic on any given race.
I told nagwa nagwa yesterday he asked about a horse i might have bet and i said no i never even looked at the race the reason being it was a handicap but there was one horse in the race with only one run in handicap one rating so i could not judge that horses ability and i was right to avoid it that horse actually won the race.
The test i done other day ten races all handicaps was to check that out so i tried to ability rating them all ten although there was races just like that with horses hard to rate and it proved that some of those horses did in deed win those races too.
So that tells us or me few things first horses with little form like those magic 3yold slipping in to handicaps are two things you leave the race or if its just one of them can do rest of race but make sure there is small cover on that horse to upset apple cart.
Two that races above handicap like listed and group they dont get adjusted marks so the ability should always show as long as conditions are right on day.
Three when you drop down to class 5 which i have today with two races of my four the consistency of horses drops so the form is a little more unstable to trust and the ability rating easier to over ride a little.
Four when you go even to class 6 now your thinking obviously all ability rating drops markedly but so does consistency and form even for the same ability horses they just dont perform the same .
So from all that you get why he said best races of the day with horses running well but still can get into ability ratings high enough and then the form to be able to win the race on the given day. With a very high point on the given day.
 
Not sure the point you're making though. Had both horses run with the weights not being raised then the fact is CD would have been carrying just 10-7 and West Tip would have carried the same weight of 10-0. Though of course there would have been higher rated on official handicap horses in the race.

Because the weights went up, the only horse (from CD & WT) who was worse off in respect of weight carried was CD. Instead of giving West Tip 7lb he was giving him 25lbs.

What's the confusion in that?

Also had they carried 10-7 and 10-0 respectively then the SL ratings would have shifted dramatically in CD's favour seeing as they were based on weight carried.

Before the weights were raised West Tip would have had to carry more weight than he needed to on presumably the handicap mark that he was on . ie he would have been many pounds out of the handicap so in effect penalised by that amount of extra weight he would have to carry the weights not been raised. Yes West Tip would still have run off 10 stones as that was the minimum weight to be carried . But if for instance of he was nearly 28 lbs below Canny Danny , according to VDW Then had the weights not been raised , and Canny Danny raced of 10-7 , then West Tip on Handicap mark around 28 lbs inferior to Canny Danny ,as I don’t have the OR for West Tip would have carry well over at least 18 lbs of lead in the saddle to race off the minimum weight of 10 st



With the weights raised presumably West Tip did not have to carry any Lead weight in the saddle and was racing off his correct Handicap mark on 10st
 
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"if you do any puzzle you have a certain time scale to solve it"

That is only the case if it is a test or examination, gerry gerry.

I've just been reading a book by the late Richard Walker, who was a lifelong angler and among much else caught the then record heaviest carp. I've no doubt from what he has written that anglers like Walker improve their results by learning about when fish do, or do not, feed, what specific types of fish eat most readily and where in a lake or river they are most likely to be found and there is quite a lot of science involved, mainly involving temperature. Becoming a better angler was, for Walker, a lifetime project ending, presumably, only when he became too old to go fishing.

I think it is much the same with race analysis. Learning how to do it better, whether via VDW's work or not, is not a time-limited test or examination, one works at it as long as it holds one's interest (or one becomes too old to be bothered).
 
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I dont disagree with that at all JennyK JennyK if you enjoy that better than horse racing today then that's your hobby i get it .
But there is a time limit you put it in brackets your self above we die.
So what i am saying is instead of going over races run 50 years ago for 50 years look at what went wrong in races today that where analysed on his method.
Look at the 4 races i mentioned today i knew they where not easy nothing popped outa s they say but i gave two selections in each i only got one race up where i got the 1 - 2 i thought for minute i was going to get two other winners but not to be and one race was total wash out.
Now in all the bets i have been doing this since last monday i have not had one race over class 4 so poorer races on saturday they were better races but i didnt do this on saturday till after racing and ot would have been good anyway i am finding things out rapped from just starting it.
so worked out i actually was not unhappy loosing a little today as with only four races i got most back in one race. Now will the system build up in better races to his 85% wins i can tell you right now no chance but it does not need to that's pie in sky.
I have worked out so far the old ability rating are no use not less the horse is still showing them, current form matters, odds matter, what way a horse is going matters up or down, how close horses finish in a race matters, form matters more than anything reading it and understanding it.
And he said this himself temperament matters more than anything else and i think this is believing what your doing and stick to it solidly.
Like today i could have easily started lookinga t otehr races and tried get winner but even when i had first two down early doors one a shocker result i just chilled waited knowing i might get next two up and win on day thats what it means worst scenario all loss not great day 4 races so what.
But the point is learning on every single race run you study win or loss i would say i have learnt more in last week about it not even looking at his races.
What i would say if some one could give me a race with all the form in the racing post of past races they run he spoke about i would know answer instantly but those races he mentioned all the back form is missing.
 
tufnel,

The paragraph you refer to in Betting The VDW Way, to my mind at least, is talking about the class of race in which a horse competes being different to the class of horses engaged in that race. In his later return article to Roushayd he made an important extra point about Shimshek and Ala Hanouk "not having much in the way of class (AS HORSES)" which seemed a clear reference to me that the much higher class of races they had been running in were very different to their ability ratings.

i interpreted this slightly differently, as in... neither of them "could quicken" ( in the final stages) to any great degree,

as opposed to "royal Bond" who , after the last, showed his class and "pulled away" without difficulty

so it would seem, we might have "3" types of class....


class of race (value)

class of runners in the race, (however you measure that )

class of...how well the horse did or didnt "quicken"

if i remember correctly, at least one the two horses mentioned had indeed WON...but it won by the horse that finished 2nd weakening

and leaving the other horse to be the winner...as opposed to "storming past the horse that finished 2nd"
 
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Before the weights were raised West Tip would have had to carry more weight than he needed to on presumably the handicap mark that he was on . ie he would have been many pounds out of the handicap so in effect penalised by that amount of extra weight he would have to carry the weights not been raised. Yes West Tip would still have run off 10 stones as that was the minimum weight to be carried . But if for instance of he was nearly 28 lbs below Canny Danny , according to VDW Then had the weights not been raised , and Canny Danny raced of 10-7 , then West Tip on Handicap mark around 28 lbs inferior to Canny Danny ,as I don’t have the OR for West Tip would have carry well over at least 18 lbs of lead in the saddle to race off the minimum weight of 10 st



With the weights raised presumably West Tip did not have to carry any Lead weight in the saddle and was racing off his correct Handicap mark on 10st
Well we don't actually know how far West Tip was out of the handicap, other than it was at least 18 lbs because he still carried the minimum weight of 10-0, so he could have been even further out of the handicap. So he was always going to be a horse running with more weight than he would have been if the minimum weight was allowed to less than 10-0.

Off course VDW would have known exactly where West Tip had been in the framed weight before final decs.

And although the weights went up, West Tip was carrying exactly the same physical weight on the day as he would have done if the weights had not gone up. But Canny Danny was the only one affected in terms of actual weight carried. If weights not had gone up he'd have carried just 10-7 but he actually carried 11-11.

I'm struggling to see what the misunderstanding is here.

In one scenario Canny Danny only has to give West Tip 7 lbs. In the other scenario, the one that unfolded he had to give West Tip 25 lbs.

How is West Tip NOT massively benefitted by the weights be raised 18 lb and Canny Danny likewise hugely disadvantaged?

It's obvious.
 
It is not either/or, gerry gerry, but for me both.

Every day there are what I consider to be decent sprint handicaps, I analyse some or all. Tomorrow, for example, I'll be doing the 2.00 Ayr and 3.45 Yarmouth. But I also have to spend time downloading the previous day's results because my ability to analyse an upcoming race depends on my database and when possible I continue with work on the VDW examples. I do that because the more I understand the approach they reveal, the more successful I am with current races.
 
tufnel,



i interpreted this slightly differently, as in... neither of them "could quicken" ( in the final stages) to any great degree,

as opposed to "royal Bond" who , after the last, showed his class and "pulled away" without difficulty

so it would seem, we might have "3" types of class....


class of race (value)

class of runners in the race, (however you measure that )

class of...how well the horse did or didnt "quicken"

if i remember correctly, at least one the two horses mentioned had indeed WON...but it won by the horse that finished 2nd weakening

and leaving the other horse to be the winner...as opposed to "storming past the horse that finished 2nd"
It's open to interpretation, but both Shimshek and Ala Hanouk had LTO run in much higher class races than the Newbury race. Merce Cunningham had also run in slightly higher class last time but not as high as the other two.

Shimshek was said to have shown a downturn in form last time out when he said the race was slow and "the horse did nothing from the distance", but had to respected on class. Clearly to me that was a reference to respected on class of race LTO and certainly not his ability rating (a measure of class of horse VDW said when first giving his Ability rating) of just 19.

Ala Hanouk had an AR of 46 whilst Merce Cunningham was 55.

The highest ability ratings in that Newbury race were Ibn Bey 316 (a high class horse VDW said coming from last run the previous season of class 984) and Roushayd AR of 231.

I think the numbers speak for themselves in respect of class of race and class of horse.

What a horse does or doesn't do in the last 2 furlongs is open to interpretation also. The race reader's comments can vary from publication to publication and frequently you might see the comment "qcknd or qcknd to lead, etc" but often that is just a visual illusion and it's normally just other horses slowing up and giving the impression another is quickening. But my thinking on this is VDW is saying that Shimshek did nothing form the distance.

The official form book data says Shimshek ran 2nd in his previous race "2nd straight, every chance over 1f out, ridden, ran on" and some might say that the form comments say he was ridden a furlong out and ran on, so how is that doing nothing?

But I think rather than relying on race reader's opinions in the comments as opposed to facts there's a different stance to take.
What is fact and what is opinion in Shimshek's form comments?
Facts were:
He was 2nd in the straight (presumably just after they turned in to it).
He was in contention over 1f out.
He was ridden at that point.
He finished the same place he was when they entered the straight.

Opinion parts were:
Ran on.

For context the 7/1 winner winner made all the running and the Even money fav was 3rd under a length behind Shimshek whilst suffering a not clear run.

Another fact was the race was run over 11 secs slower than standard on good to firm going.

So in a slow race, Shimshek was 2nd in the straight at least 4 furlongs out and remained in that position to the line.

I'd say that was a horse who did nothing from the distance or even further back than that too.
 
T Tufnel
West Tip's adjusted long handicap weight was 9-12 (so was still running 2lb out of the handicap despite the 18lb weight rise).

Therefore, by my reckoning, West Tip was originally 20lb out of the handicap when the weights were originally published.

There must have been some decent horses initially entered at the entry stage, for the race to later collapse to this extent.
 

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T Tufnel
West Tip's adjusted long handicap weight was 9-12 (so was still running 2lb out of the handicap despite the 18lb weight rise).

Therefore, by my reckoning, West Tip was originally 20lb out of the handicap when the weights were originally published.

There must have been some decent horses initially entered at the entry stage, for the race to later collapse to this extent.
Thanks for that shot. So if the weights had not gone up West Tip would have been 20 lbs wrong at the weights carrying 10-0 instead of 8-8 alloted in the framed weights, but Canny Danny would have been correct on 10-7.

Inconceivable under those conditions to think West Tip had anything in hand over Canny Danny. The weights going up 18 lb clearly benefitted only one of those horses, and it so obviously was not Canny Danny.

I think that chapter in regards of the weights in this race is closed.
 
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