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Class/form horses

VDW intended to give something back.

Sightly further on down the line.

Che Van der Wheil used many lines of investigation and evaluation because each race individual race presented different problems for him to solve.Hotform was right in his assumtion that the analysis of race 2871 last season was different to the method that adopted Ability/Consistency ratings as a platform to see if there is a winner in a race.However, both methods aim to identify the class/form horse. If after exhausting all methods and you still cannot find a winner in a race, then dont bet.(Temperament).
Let`s look at the method Hotform mentioned.
Concentrate on the first five in the betting forecast (Racing Post).

Race 3465 (Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham March17)

B/F/C : 11/4 Istabraq 6/1 Dato Star 6/1 Im Supposin 7/1 Shadow Leader 14/1 Pridwell.

Consistency :Istabraq (3) Dato Star (6) Im Supposin (10) Shadow Leader (5) Pridwell (5).

Ability/Class :Istabraq (236) Dato Star (76) Im Supposin (86) Shadowc Leader (171) Pridwell (67).

Highest Class :Istabraq (341) Dato Star (123) Im Supposin (188) Shadow Leader (No wins this season) Pridwell (154)

Istabraq is super consistent has the highest class rating and has also achieved the highest class win this season.
Result Istabraq won 3/1.
.............................................

Race 3496 (Royal & Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle,Cheltenham March 18.

B/F/C : 7/4 French Holly 7/1 Erintante 7/1 Foxchapel King 9/1 Cloone Bridge 12/1 Torboy.

Consistency : French Holly (3) Erintante (9) Foxchapel King (8) Cloone Bridge (10) Torboy (11).

Ability/Class : French Holly (54) Erintante (35)
Foxchapel King (32) Cloone Bridge (33) Torboy (28).

Highest Class : French Holly (159) Erintante (69) Foxchapel King (40) Cloone Bridge (40) Torboy (28).

French Holly is again super consistent, has the highest class rating and has also achieved the highest class win this season

Result French Holly won 2/1.

..............................................

At the time of writing, I have just read `Close Encounters of the VDW Kind`. The author may find the the analysis of race 4148 enlightening and increase profitability of his selection method. I would ask the question why move from the original platform?.By coincidence, race 4148 was the next engagement for Stanton Harcourt. To save space, I have reduced the original field to the main contenders.

Race 4148 (Class 135) One Mile Handicap, Doncaster Sept 13th 1997.

Horses : Restructure, Stanton Harcourt, Yorkie George, Jo Mell, Al Azhar, Russian Music, Pomona.

Previous Race & Distance : Restructure (98/7f) Stanto Harcourt (171/1m) Yorkie George (482/6f) Jo Mell (235/7f202yds) Al Azhar (97/1m1f) Russian Music (235/7f202yds) Pomona (47/1m)

Restructure, Al Azhar and Pomona can be discarded as they are all raised in class. Pomona achieved a decent speed figure last time, but note the course was Windsor Doncaster is a different proposition.
Yorkie George ran in the highest class, but could only finish 17th, hardly the kind of form to win this race.Jo Mell ran in the same race as Russian Music and is not weighted to reverse the placing.
Stanton Harcourt is again dropping in class, but showed a downturn in form judged by the speed figure achieved. Also has not raced for 55 days.Why?

In race 3051 (class 123) Russian Music recorded a SF of 51. Next pushed up in class to 225, recorded a season best of 78, giving an indication that the horse is being primed to win.Now being dropped in class for this race and set to carry 1lb less having shown improved form and is shown to be a probable winner in the race.

Result Russian Music won 8/1.

...........................................

To bring the reader more up-to-date, take a look at the following, which I evaluated on the day of the race.Most of the the contestants have not run since last season. However, the analysis demonstates how reliable class/form can be.

Race 485 Doncaster 3.40 March 28,1998. 6f (listed).

Horses : Tedburrow, Monaasib, Carranita, Brave Edge, Classy Cleo, Patsy Grimes, Cretan Gift, Superior Premium, Selhurstpark Flyer.

previous Race Class: Tedburrow (182) Monassib (594) Carranita (109) Brave Edge (109) Classy Cleo (55) Patsy Grimes (49) Cretan Gift (55) Superior Premium (109) Selhurstpark Flyer (499).

Last Speed Figure : Tedburrow (47) Monassib (99) Carranita (4) Brave Edge (8) Classy Cleo (36) Patsy Grimes (38) Cretan Gift (78) Superior Premium (58) Selhurstpark Flyer (54).

Last Placing : Tedburrow (10th) Monassib (2nd) Carranita (11th) Brave Edge (12th) Classy Cleo (9th) Patsy Grimes (10th) Cretan Gift (1st) Superior Premium (4th) Selhurstpark Flyer (21st).

The probable winner in a race is Monassib. Note last season Monassib won a group 3 event in Germany and broke the course record in doing so .Also, the last race of the season for Monassib was a group 2 event at Ascot.He achieved an SF in the highest class race, 21lbs better than the nearest rival.Now set to take a massive drop in class.
Although Monassib has not raced raced since last season, the horse won its first four races last year and appears to run well when fresh.Also `On The Gallops` (Raceform Issue 766) reported monassib, who has a Cammidge Trophy entry on saturday, looked well when going past National wish in a strong piece of work.

Result Monassib won 9/4.

.......................................

It is my understanding that VDW intended to give something back. This he did free of charge, by placing signposts on the pages of Sports Forum.
Classform.
 
Last edited:
Redcar showing today that some jocks really don't cut it in the common sense department. Why are any of them staying on the near side when it's been clear in all races that the far side is faster?
 
Chesham said:
VDW intended to give something back.

Sightly further on down the line.

Che Van der Wheil used many lines of investigation and evaluation because each race individual race presented different problems for him to solve.Hotform was right in his assumtion that the analysis of race 2871 last season was different to the method that adopted Ability/Consistency ratings as a platform to see if there is a winner in a race.However, both methods aim to identify the class/form horse. If after exhausting all methods and you still cannot find a winner in a race, then dont bet.(Temperament).
Let`s look at the method Hotform mentioned.
Concentrate on the first five in the betting forecast (Racing Post).

Race 3465 (Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham March17)

B/F/C : 11/4 Istabraq 6/1 Dato Star 6/1 Im Supposin 7/1 Shadow Leader 14/1 Pridwell.

Consistency :Istabraq (3) Dato Star (6) Im Supposin (10) Shadow Leader (5) Pridwell (5).

Ability/Class :Istabraq (236) Dato Star (76) Im Supposin (86) Shadowc Leader (171) Pridwell (67).

Highest Class :Istabraq (341) Dato Star (123) Im Supposin (188) Shadow Leader (No wins this season) Pridwell (154)

Istabraq is super consistent has the highest class rating and has also achieved the highest class win this season.
Result Istabraq won 3/1.
.............................................

Race 3496 (Royal & Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle,Cheltenham March 18.

B/F/C : 7/4 French Holly 7/1 Erintante 7/1 Foxchapel King 9/1 Cloone Bridge 12/1 Torboy.

Consistency : French Holly (3) Erintante (9) Foxchapel King (8) Cloone Bridge (10) Torboy (11).

Ability/Class : French Holly (54) Erintante (35)
Foxchapel King (32) Cloone Bridge (33) Torboy (28).

Highest Class : French Holly (159) Erintante (69) Foxchapel King (40) Cloone Bridge (40) Torboy (28).

French Holly is again super consistent, has the highest class rating and has also achieved the highest class win this season

Result French Holly won 2/1.

..............................................

At the time of writing, I have just read `Close Encounters of the VDW Kind`. The author may find the the analysis of race 4148 enlightening and increase profitability of his selection method. I would ask the question why move from the original platform?.By coincidence, race 4148 was the next engagement for Stanton Harcourt. To save space, I have reduced the original field to the main contenders.

Race 4148 (Class 135) One Mile Handicap, Doncaster Sept 13th 1997.

Horses : Restructure, Stanton Harcourt, Yorkie George, Jo Mell, Al Azhar, Russian Music, Pomona.

Previous Race & Distance : Restructure (98/7f) Stanto Harcourt (171/1m) Yorkie George (482/6f) Jo Mell (235/7f202yds) Al Azhar (97/1m1f) Russian Music (235/7f202yds) Pomona (47/1m)

Restructure, Al Azhar and Pomona can be discarded as they are all raised in class. Pomona achieved a decent speed figure last time, but note the course was Windsor Doncaster is a different proposition.
Yorkie George ran in the highest class, but could only finish 17th, hardly the kind of form to win this race.Jo Mell ran in the same race as Russian Music and is not weighted to reverse the placing.
Stanton Harcourt is again dropping in class, but showed a downturn in form judged by the speed figure achieved. Also has not raced for 55 days.Why?

In race 3051 (class 123) Russian Music recorded a SF of 51. Next pushed up in class to 225, recorded a season best of 78, giving an indication that the horse is being primed to win.Now being dropped in class for this race and set to carry 1lb less having shown improved form and is shown to be a probable winner in the race.

Result Russian Music won 8/1.

...........................................

To bring the reader more up-to-date, take a look at the following, which I evaluated on the day of the race.Most of the the contestants have not run since last season. However, the analysis demonstates how reliable class/form can be.

Race 485 Doncaster 3.40 March 28,1998. 6f (listed).

Horses : Tedburrow, Monaasib, Carranita, Brave Edge, Classy Cleo, Patsy Grimes, Cretan Gift, Superior Premium, Selhurstpark Flyer.

previous Race Class: Tedburrow (182) Monassib (594) Carranita (109) Brave Edge (109) Classy Cleo (55) Patsy Grimes (49) Cretan Gift (55) Superior Premium (109) Selhurstpark Flyer (499).

Last Speed Figure : Tedburrow (47) Monassib (99) Carranita (4) Brave Edge (8) Classy Cleo (36) Patsy Grimes (38) Cretan Gift (78) Superior Premium (58) Selhurstpark Flyer (54).

Last Placing : Tedburrow (10th) Monassib (2nd) Carranita (11th) Brave Edge (12th) Classy Cleo (9th) Patsy Grimes (10th) Cretan Gift (1st) Superior Premium (4th) Selhurstpark Flyer (21st).

The probable winner in a race is Monassib. Note last season Monassib won a group 3 event in Germany and broke the course record in doing so .Also, the last race of the season for Monassib was a group 2 event at Ascot.He achieved an SF in the highest class race, 21lbs better than the nearest rival.Now set to take a massive drop in class.
Although Monassib has not raced raced since last season, the horse won its first four races last year and appears to run well when fresh.Also `On The Gallops` (Raceform Issue 766) reported monassib, who has a Cammidge Trophy entry on saturday, looked well when going past National wish in a strong piece of work.

Result Monassib won 9/4.

.......................................

It is my understanding that VDW intended to give something back. This he did free of charge, by placing signposts on the pages of Sports Forum.
Classform.
Click to expand...
Wasn't Hotform one of VDW's critics? Or maybe it was Win of Brighton I'm confusing him with.
 
Ome of my Benchmark Horses was given a good ride by Mr Tudhope who gets on well with this horse

race.

In a race that generated an 84.3 RSSF (which sits firmly in Class 4 territory for an RPR of 84+), the BHA handicapper was forced to compress the grid to fit the strict 0-70 boundaries of a Class 5.

To see exactly how much they under-assessed the closers, we look at Boubyan. He settled in mid-field, absorbed standard positional drag, and was completely outpaced when the race turned into a sprint 3f out. Because he was beaten by 8¾ lengths, the handicapper dropped him 2 lbs (to 61). He represents the exact limit of a standard Class 5 engine.

By anchoring the race to him and the front-runner (Cosmos Raj), we can expose the hidden yardage the closers overcame.

Tactical Front-End Mapping & Hidden Yardage​

(Redcar 1m 2f = 6,600 ft | F3 Distance = 1,980 ft. Drag penalty: 2.5 lbs / 0.167s per length).

  • The Zero-Line: Cosmos Raj dictated from the front, clocking a 14.63s early fraction. He absorbed zero positional drag and was able to dictate the tactical tempo (TDIFF +0.24s).
  • Positional Penalties:Because this was a tactical race, the closers had to accelerate into a quickening pace.
    • Sweet Kiss (2nd): Clocked 14.95s early (+0.32s). Forfeited 1.91 lengths = +4.8 lbs.
    • Chesneys Charm (3rd): Clocked 15.63s early (+1.00s). Forfeited 5.98 lengths = +15.0 lbs.
    • Always Blue (4th): Clocked 15.25s early (+0.62s). Forfeited 3.71 lengths = +9.3 lbs.

Master Race Summary & Brohamer Velocity Profile​

HorseTFRTfigRPRBHA (Off/Perf/New)Gemini MarkPR% (FSP)EP (fps)Turn-Time (fps)F3 (fps)% EarlyTrue AdvTimeform Race Comments
🔵Cosmos Raj71707163 / 66 / 6666.0103.61%49.3354.8254.5348.10%0.0 lbsOn the slide for a while now, bounced back to form under a more positive ride with usual cheekpieces left off, setting a solid pace... made all, went clear home turn, tackled 1f out, all out to hold on.
🔴Sweet Kiss67666759 / 61 / 6165.8104.13%49.5254.7154.5348.33%-4.8 lbsBoasts a fine record when racing below a BHA mark of 60 and was denied only by the narrowest of margins in first-time cheekpieces, running right up to her best; tracked pace, challenged 1f out, just failed.
Chesneys Charm70697066 / 65 / 6580.0104.65%49.8254.5154.5548.77%-15.0 lbsShowed the benefit of his stable debut spin a fortnight earlier, seeing the 1¼m out fine under a patient ride, and should remain competitive from this reduced mark; dropped out, progress over 1f out, kept on well, took third final strides.
Always Blue72727370 / 68 / 6977.3103.84%49.6154.6754.5248.51%-8.3 lbsThe least exposed in the line-up on only second handicap venture, went off favourite with the step up to 1¼m fancied to suit but was far too free to be seen in the best light... mid-field, not settle fully, headway over 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, effort flattened out.

Structural Takeaways​

  1. The Grid Compression Illusion: The BHA handicapper saw Cosmos Raj and Sweet Kiss fight out a tight finish and assigned them marks of 66 and 61, safely keeping the race inside Class 5 bounds. They completely missed that this field generated Class 4 speed (84.3 RSSF) to do it.
  2. Chesneys Charm is the Apex Target: This is the most severe anomaly on the card. He was dropped out early, giving up a massive 6 lengths to the leader. To make up that ground against a quickening pace, he had to generate elite, Class 4-level velocity (104.65% FSP). The BHA handicapper actually dropped him 1 lb (to 65) because he finished 3rd. He is hiding a staggering -15.0 lb True Advantage.
IMG_0926.jpeg
 
I wonder if the Far Bridge / Direct Line situation has relevance to today's principle Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter?

Genreal Clermount has by far the better AR figure (top in the race) and Axel Bleue is actually bottom rated. But the weight situation, not just what they carry today but what they've both been carrying, is a similar case I think.

AB hasn't been winning his races with the same kind of authority that Direct Line did, but it is a form horse as is GC but is carrying less than usual and getting a lot from GC.

Looks the probable winner and is forecast and current fav.

Surely qualifies?
 
Chesham said:
Ome of my Benchmark Horses was given a good ride by Mr Tudhope who gets on well with this horse

race.

In a race that generated an 84.3 RSSF (which sits firmly in Class 4 territory for an RPR of 84+), the BHA handicapper was forced to compress the grid to fit the strict 0-70 boundaries of a Class 5.

To see exactly how much they under-assessed the closers, we look at Boubyan. He settled in mid-field, absorbed standard positional drag, and was completely outpaced when the race turned into a sprint 3f out. Because he was beaten by 8¾ lengths, the handicapper dropped him 2 lbs (to 61). He represents the exact limit of a standard Class 5 engine.

By anchoring the race to him and the front-runner (Cosmos Raj), we can expose the hidden yardage the closers overcame.

Tactical Front-End Mapping & Hidden Yardage​

(Redcar 1m 2f = 6,600 ft | F3 Distance = 1,980 ft. Drag penalty: 2.5 lbs / 0.167s per length).

  • The Zero-Line: Cosmos Raj dictated from the front, clocking a 14.63s early fraction. He absorbed zero positional drag and was able to dictate the tactical tempo (TDIFF +0.24s).
  • Positional Penalties:Because this was a tactical race, the closers had to accelerate into a quickening pace.
    • Sweet Kiss (2nd): Clocked 14.95s early (+0.32s). Forfeited 1.91 lengths = +4.8 lbs.
    • Chesneys Charm (3rd): Clocked 15.63s early (+1.00s). Forfeited 5.98 lengths = +15.0 lbs.
    • Always Blue (4th): Clocked 15.25s early (+0.62s). Forfeited 3.71 lengths = +9.3 lbs.

Master Race Summary & Brohamer Velocity Profile​

HorseTFRTfigRPRBHA (Off/Perf/New)Gemini MarkPR% (FSP)EP (fps)Turn-Time (fps)F3 (fps)% EarlyTrue AdvTimeform Race Comments
🔵Cosmos Raj71707163 / 66 / 6666.0103.61%49.3354.8254.5348.10%0.0 lbsOn the slide for a while now, bounced back to form under a more positive ride with usual cheekpieces left off, setting a solid pace... made all, went clear home turn, tackled 1f out, all out to hold on.
🔴Sweet Kiss67666759 / 61 / 6165.8104.13%49.5254.7154.5348.33%-4.8 lbsBoasts a fine record when racing below a BHA mark of 60 and was denied only by the narrowest of margins in first-time cheekpieces, running right up to her best; tracked pace, challenged 1f out, just failed.
Chesneys Charm70697066 / 65 / 6580.0104.65%49.8254.5154.5548.77%-15.0 lbsShowed the benefit of his stable debut spin a fortnight earlier, seeing the 1¼m out fine under a patient ride, and should remain competitive from this reduced mark; dropped out, progress over 1f out, kept on well, took third final strides.
Always Blue72727370 / 68 / 6977.3103.84%49.6154.6754.5248.51%-8.3 lbsThe least exposed in the line-up on only second handicap venture, went off favourite with the step up to 1¼m fancied to suit but was far too free to be seen in the best light... mid-field, not settle fully, headway over 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, effort flattened out.

Structural Takeaways​

  1. The Grid Compression Illusion: The BHA handicapper saw Cosmos Raj and Sweet Kiss fight out a tight finish and assigned them marks of 66 and 61, safely keeping the race inside Class 5 bounds. They completely missed that this field generated Class 4 speed (84.3 RSSF) to do it.
  2. Chesneys Charm is the Apex Target: This is the most severe anomaly on the card. He was dropped out early, giving up a massive 6 lengths to the leader. To make up that ground against a quickening pace, he had to generate elite, Class 4-level velocity (104.65% FSP). The BHA handicapper actually dropped him 1 lb (to 65) because he finished 3rd. He is hiding a staggering -15.0 lb True Advantage.
View attachment 171557
Click to expand...
Tudhope is fairly reliable, though he does give some a strange ride, but that's because he rides for a gambling stable. But today sticking to the far side is the obvious basic tactic.

The 6f race was won by a well backed fav on the far side who stays a furlong further. Result never in doubt from 2 out.
 
Well Axel Bleue beat General Clermont alright. Shame about the 3 others in front of him though.

The 4lb turnaround between the winner Mt Fugi Park and Axel Bleue didn't help AB at all and instead of a neck down he was many lengths behind MFP this time.
 
gerry gerry

Good luck with the 5.18, not a race I have looked at.

I can tell you that Mr Clover thinks well of his runner, Sea Cookie, and is disappointed that he hasn't shown on the track recently what he has shown at home. The visor and drop in trip today are the stable's current plan to try to change that. In another fifteen minutes or so they'll know whether they've worked.

For the avoidance of doubt, I never back a horse because of what the trainer is known to think, so if Sea Cookie wins or loses it is financially irrelevant to me.
 
My feelings JennyK JennyK was never run on soft and only race on good was near last so i think would be surprise for me anyway if can beat these on the ground although shocks happen it would be fore me.
 
Was so busy on here lol i just missed the race i have waited all day for cant believe i sat 4 hrs waiting then miss it i see got money back with winner on day , but actually got the best f/cast result too crossing the three.
 
"And we don't know really why he didn't back West Tip,"

I think we do, T Tufnel. VDW was explicit that Canny Danny was the "class/form" horse and that "to bet against it [the class/form horse] pushes the odds away from you".

I don't think VDW would have backed Canny Danny even without the weight issue which he discusses; he was a class/dropper in that race (118 to 103) with no key horse support. One of the >80% of class/form horses to be left from the betting perspective. Also, it was not as if West Tip was second on class/form, not far below Canny Danny in the ability ratings. He was neither a "form horse nor a consistent horse.
 
Chesham said:
Canny Danny did not get Rating Support with the Sporting Life Handicap Rating, was 7 lb adrift .
Click to expand...
Sunset Cristo didn't get support with other newspaper ratings either but he said it was virtually a certainty. Unless VDW showed us his ratings alongside the popular paper ones it didn't give us any context.

He said the ratings were not the be all and end all and any good set will do. But when one set says no and his say another then were into a very vague criteria in my opinion.

Lots of VDW's examples did have good support from popular ratings. But plenty didn't too.

Besides, we've been down this road before. Let me just remind folks that the weights in the Sandown race were raised 18 lbs from the "FRAMED WEIGHTS".

This means in the original framed weight Canny Danny was going to be carrying 18 lb less than the 11-11 he ended up with. Some simple maths tell us that 11-11 less 18 lbs = 10-7.

West Tip carried 10-0 on the day but in the framed weight he would've been handicapped at least 18 lbs lower otherwise he'd have been carrying more than 10-0 post weights rising.

Now if the weights had not been raised 18 lbs, then Canny Danny would have carried 10-7 and West Tip would have still carried 10-0 the minimum allowed without a claimer.

There's no way VDW didn't take that situation into account. How can a horse set to give another just 7 lb the day before final decs be well treated if they are suddenly set to carry 18 lbs more whilst the other horse stays at 10-0 ?

Screenshot 2026-09-16 at 02.20.59.png

JennyK JennyK But surely then Far Bridge was the class/form horse in the Direct Line race? If the class/form horse is the highest ability rated form horse in the race (regardless of consistent form, etc) then the only way you'd ever bet anything else in the race would be to discard that horse on weight or a conditions negative basis.

Also, why does a class dropper who won that higher class race last time out need key horse support under those circumstances?

West Tip was not consistent, but I really don't see how he wasn't a form horse in the Sandown race. Gave 17lb and 15lb to the 1st and 2nd respectively on last run beaten just over a length and a half "ran on well flat" Class 25 race at Newbury after a 6th class 14 on seasonal debut. Surely that performance last time was an improved form run?
 
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