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CHELTENHAM 2026

Posted Pre Race today , won and now 16/1 for the Supreme Novice . owner is 3/6 in the Supreme

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Full transcript as the past to large to screenshot
Based on the pedigree page provided and the horse's current profile, here is a detailed comprehensive report on Fire Warning (FR) ahead of his UK debut at Newbury today.

REPORT: FIRE WARNING (FR)​

RaceNewbury 1:05 – Novices' Hurdle (Class 3)
Age/Sex5yo Grey Gelding (Foaled March 28, 2021)
SireThe Grey Gatsby (IRE)
DamFinal Fanfare (IRE) (by Rail Link)
TrainerNicky Henderson
OwnerMrs S. Ricci (Rich Ricci)
Sale Price€340,000 (approx. £290,000) – Note: The £3.4m figure mentioned is likely a typo for this recent Arqana sale price.
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1. Executive Summary & Sales History​

The text you provided appears to be from his 2023 Goffs Yorton Sale catalog entry, where he was originally sold as an unbroken store horse for £28,000.

His valuation has since skyrocketed. Following a promising start to his career in France, he was purchased at the Arqana Arc Sale in October 2025 for €340,000. This massive price tag reflects his potential as a top-tier novice hurdler. He has joined Nicky Henderson, a trainer synonymous with producing Supreme Novices' Hurdle winners (Constitution Hill, Altior, Shishkin), carrying the famous Ricci silks.

2. Pedigree Analysis​

This pedigree represents a modern "speed-over-stamina" cross, blending high-class flat speed with a stout, staying bottom line.

The Sire: THE GREY GATSBY (IRE)

  • Profile: A top-class 10f-12f Flat horse, winner of the French Derby (Gr.1) and Irish Champion Stakes (Gr.1). He was known for his turn of foot and high cruising speed.
  • Influence: While primarily a Flat sire, his progeny are increasingly sought after for jumping because they tend to be athletic, quick learners with enough stamina for 2 miles. He injects the necessary "gears" required for a modern Grade 1 hurdler.
The Dam: FINAL FANFARE (IRE)

  • Breeding: She is by Rail Link, an Arc de Triomphe winner. Rail Link is a massive source of stamina in National Hunt pedigrees (sire of thorough stayers).
  • Record: A winner at 3 in France.
  • Genetic Mix: Crucially, the dam balances the sire. While The Grey Gatsby brings the speed, Final Fanfare brings the grit and stamina of the Sadler's Wells line (via Rail Link).
The Female Line (2nd & 3rd Dams)

  • 3rd Dam (Well Warned): This is a high-class flat family. She produced PROHIBIT (winner of the Gr.1 King's Stand Stakes), a pure sprinter.
  • Jumping Evidence: Despite the sprinting blood, the family has produced jumpers. Cardinal Palace (grandson of Well Warned) was a Gr.2 placed hurdler. Wise Eagle is a prolific winner on the flat and over hurdles.
  • Conclusion: This family is not "slow." It is a speedy family crossed with a staying sire (Rail Link), producing a horse that should have the tactical speed for a 2-mile hurdle race at a track like Newbury.

3. Form Analysis (The French Run)​

Fire Warning arrives with "Form figures: 612".

  • Flat (Moulins): Won a 1m4f flat race on soft ground. This proves he has an engine and handles soft conditions.
  • Hurdles (Auteuil): Finished 2ndin a Listed hurdle at Auteuil in October.
    • Significance: Auteuil form is the "gold standard" for French imports. The races are run at a strong gallop and the obstacles are larger than UK hurdles. Finishing 2nd at Auteuil on debut suggests he is a natural jumper who is already street-wise.

4. Race Suitability: Newbury 1:05​

  • The Track: Newbury is a wide, galloping, left-handed track. It is one of the fairest tracks in the country but demands a horse with a long stride who can maintain a high cruising speed.
  • The Match: This track should suit him perfectly. His sire's influence suggests he will enjoy the galloping nature of Newbury, and his Auteuil experience means he should be slicker over the obstacles than the average UK debutant.
  • The Expectation: With the significant price tag and the Henderson/Ricci connection, the expectation is that he is being targeted at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.

Verdict​

Fire Warning is a classic "money-no-object" purchase. He combines the tactical speed of a French Derby winner with the jumping foundation of an Auteuil runner.

While the £3.4m figure was a typo, the €340,000 actually paid is still huge money for a novice hurdler. He is the most interesting horse on the card today. If he settles and jumps fluently, he should be extremely hard to beat, with his main market rival likely being Bespoke Tailor.

Recommendation: Watch for market support. If he drifts, he may need the run, but on pedigree and price, he is a Grade 1 prospect in the making.
 
Chesham said:
Posted Pre Race today , won and now 16/1 for the Supreme Novice . owner is 3/6 in the Supreme

View attachment 163438

Full transcript as the past to large to screenshot
Based on the pedigree page provided and the horse's current profile, here is a detailed comprehensive report on Fire Warning (FR) ahead of his UK debut at Newbury today.

REPORT: FIRE WARNING (FR)​

RaceNewbury 1:05 – Novices' Hurdle (Class 3)
Age/Sex5yo Grey Gelding (Foaled March 28, 2021)
SireThe Grey Gatsby (IRE)
DamFinal Fanfare (IRE) (by Rail Link)
TrainerNicky Henderson
OwnerMrs S. Ricci (Rich Ricci)
Sale Price€340,000 (approx. £290,000) – Note: The £3.4m figure mentioned is likely a typo for this recent Arqana sale price.
Export to Sheets

1. Executive Summary & Sales History​

The text you provided appears to be from his 2023 Goffs Yorton Sale catalog entry, where he was originally sold as an unbroken store horse for £28,000.

His valuation has since skyrocketed. Following a promising start to his career in France, he was purchased at the Arqana Arc Sale in October 2025 for €340,000. This massive price tag reflects his potential as a top-tier novice hurdler. He has joined Nicky Henderson, a trainer synonymous with producing Supreme Novices' Hurdle winners (Constitution Hill, Altior, Shishkin), carrying the famous Ricci silks.

2. Pedigree Analysis​

This pedigree represents a modern "speed-over-stamina" cross, blending high-class flat speed with a stout, staying bottom line.

The Sire: THE GREY GATSBY (IRE)

  • Profile: A top-class 10f-12f Flat horse, winner of the French Derby (Gr.1) and Irish Champion Stakes (Gr.1). He was known for his turn of foot and high cruising speed.
  • Influence: While primarily a Flat sire, his progeny are increasingly sought after for jumping because they tend to be athletic, quick learners with enough stamina for 2 miles. He injects the necessary "gears" required for a modern Grade 1 hurdler.
The Dam: FINAL FANFARE (IRE)

  • Breeding: She is by Rail Link, an Arc de Triomphe winner. Rail Link is a massive source of stamina in National Hunt pedigrees (sire of thorough stayers).
  • Record: A winner at 3 in France.
  • Genetic Mix: Crucially, the dam balances the sire. While The Grey Gatsby brings the speed, Final Fanfare brings the grit and stamina of the Sadler's Wells line (via Rail Link).
The Female Line (2nd & 3rd Dams)

  • 3rd Dam (Well Warned): This is a high-class flat family. She produced PROHIBIT (winner of the Gr.1 King's Stand Stakes), a pure sprinter.
  • Jumping Evidence: Despite the sprinting blood, the family has produced jumpers. Cardinal Palace (grandson of Well Warned) was a Gr.2 placed hurdler. Wise Eagle is a prolific winner on the flat and over hurdles.
  • Conclusion: This family is not "slow." It is a speedy family crossed with a staying sire (Rail Link), producing a horse that should have the tactical speed for a 2-mile hurdle race at a track like Newbury.

3. Form Analysis (The French Run)​

Fire Warning arrives with "Form figures: 612".

  • Flat (Moulins): Won a 1m4f flat race on soft ground. This proves he has an engine and handles soft conditions.
  • Hurdles (Auteuil): Finished 2ndin a Listed hurdle at Auteuil in October.
    • Significance: Auteuil form is the "gold standard" for French imports. The races are run at a strong gallop and the obstacles are larger than UK hurdles. Finishing 2nd at Auteuil on debut suggests he is a natural jumper who is already street-wise.

4. Race Suitability: Newbury 1:05​

  • The Track: Newbury is a wide, galloping, left-handed track. It is one of the fairest tracks in the country but demands a horse with a long stride who can maintain a high cruising speed.
  • The Match: This track should suit him perfectly. His sire's influence suggests he will enjoy the galloping nature of Newbury, and his Auteuil experience means he should be slicker over the obstacles than the average UK debutant.
  • The Expectation: With the significant price tag and the Henderson/Ricci connection, the expectation is that he is being targeted at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.

Verdict​

Fire Warning is a classic "money-no-object" purchase. He combines the tactical speed of a French Derby winner with the jumping foundation of an Auteuil runner.

While the £3.4m figure was a typo, the €340,000 actually paid is still huge money for a novice hurdler. He is the most interesting horse on the card today. If he settles and jumps fluently, he should be extremely hard to beat, with his main market rival likely being Bespoke Tailor.

Recommendation: Watch for market support. If he drifts, he may need the run, but on pedigree and price, he is a Grade 1 prospect in the making.
Click to expand...
Be even shorter if willie was the Trainer.
 
rbtblb82 said:
Bambino Fever just won in Ireland at 1/10 - I had her when she won at last years festival, she is a good horse, I do fancy her for Cheltenham but she's only the 5/2 favourite for the Mares Hurdle.
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Not the novice .but the mares ,getting a little tempted by Nurse Susan at 50s ,but i vowed last year to cut down on the Anti post bets after a lot of mine drifted out, I am trying to keep the brakes on until after the DRF. Bookmakers seem to be contracting prices more and more each year and taking the value out of Anti post market.
 
Chesham said:
Not Sure what is going wrong for Willie, but is well below his normal run to form this season . Richi shelled out 340,000 and placed the horse with Henderson ????

View attachment 163439
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Fair point chesham ,don,t know about Richi situation ,but he does seem to target DRF ,CHELT then Punchestown ,no doubt come Punchestown ,he will be beating some of his own horses that have won at Cheltenham ,with his second strings. I am no systems man but i have always said you wont go far wrong backing his second and third strings EW at Punchestown. I think he likes to give all his owners their day in the sun. Maybe he will send a few more than normal over for Aintree as well.
 

Henderson Specifically Wanted the Horse​

Rich Ricci’s racing manager, Joe Chambers, confirmed that Nicky Henderson was personally "keen to get hold of" Fire Warning. Henderson identified the horse as a "bang two-miler"—a specific type of speedy hurdler that Henderson is famous for excelling with (e.g., Constitution Hill, Altior, Binocular). The owner and manager trusted Henderson's judgment that this specific horse fit his system perfectly.




2. "Another Swing of the Bat"​

While Ricci’s "pink and green" silks are synonymous with Willie Mullins, he has tried to have horses with Henderson in the past (such as Palixandre), though with limited luck previously. Chambers noted that about 10 months prior to the horse's debut, Ricci and Henderson decided to "have another swing of the bat" to see if they could find success together again. Fire Warning was the chosen vessel for this renewed partnership.




3. Strategic Diversification​

Ricci has a massive "army" of horses with Willie Mullins in Ireland. By placing Fire Warning in the UK:

  • Avoiding Clashes: He avoids having his own horses compete against each other in Irish novice hurdles.
  • A "British Soldier": It gives Ricci a dedicated contender on British soil to aim at UK prizes throughout the season without the need to travel from Ireland every time. Henderson noted after the horse's debut win that while Ricci has a "team invading from Ireland," Fire Warning gives them "one soldier" already stationed in the UK.
Nicky Henderson suggested he would like to give the horse one more run before the Cheltenham Festival to get more experience. He also mentioned that Aintree could be an alternative target if they decide Cheltenham comes too soon.
 
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I read a comment from someone recently saying "I'm going all out on Gordon Elliott this year, he's on form and has a team that can win a few this year" or similar, I thought it was on this thread but I can't find it now, but anyway, I was going to say the same thing, as I've also commented on Willie Mullins poor form recently, but you still can't rule him out, he will no doubt have them ready for the festival, and he won 5 races yesterday, and 3 of them he had the 2nd place horse as well, so he might just have turned a corner. I'm going to see how he does next weekend before making my decision on him for Cheltenham.
 
Excellent round of jumping and fine win for Protektorat yesterday, and for Appreciate It, both 11 year olds, although both favourites.

Protektorat is entered for the Ryanair Chase @ 16/1, I would love him to win it, I've always liked the horse and think he deserves it.
 
He would be the oldest winner of it that i can remember , in fact i wonder what was the last 11 yr old to win at the festival ,anyone know?
 
Going by what i checked silver flame won the 1951 gold cup aged 12.
couple at 11 won like moscow flyer edredon bleu. and even a 10 year old of ryanair cue card.
 
Arkle = no horse older than 8 in recent times
Champion Hurdle = no horse older than 9 in recent times
Champion Chase = 11 Year Old Moscow Flyer in 2005, 10 Year Old Sprinter Sacre in 2016 and 10 Year Old Special Tiara in 2017
Pertemps = 10 Year Old Bueno Vista in 2011
Mares Hurdle = 10 Year Old Quevega in 2014 (this horse won it 6 times in a row!)
Stayers Hurdle = 11 Year Old Sire Du Berlais in 2023
Ryanair Chase = 10 Year Old Fondmort in 2006, 10 Year Old Our Vic in 2008 and 10 Year Old Albertas Run in 2011
Gold Cup = 10 Year Old Cool Dawn in 1998

No other races / most others are novice races so horses are younger.
 
Short Prices Favourites at this Stage......

  • Pertemps Network Cleeve Hurdle - Impose Toi 6/5
  • Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Old Park Star 2/1
  • Arkle - Lulamba 11/8
  • Champion Hurdle - Sir Gino 5/4
  • Brown Advisory Novices' Chase - Final Demand 10/11
  • Queen Mother Champion Chase - Marine Nationale 6/4
  • Mares' Novices' Hurdle - Bambino Fever 9/4
  • Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle - Lossiemouth 7/4 & Wodhooh 7/4
  • Stayers' Hurdle - Teahupoo 7/4
  • Ryanair Chase - Fact To File 6/4

I wonder which race Sir Gino will run in, surely it will be Champion Hurdle.

Barry Connell said Jonbon's win was in a Mickey Mouse race, and that he's not scared one bit of the other horses - he thinks Marine Nationale will smash them all. I think he should be worried about Solness, which must be a good bet @ 16/1 (although, Solness UK record nowhere as good as his Irish record).

Could be a good 1st day for Nicky Henderson.
 
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"Mickey Mouse race" the Champion chase fell apart last year LOL. Not that I minded because I backed Barrys horse ,but I would be the first to admit that it was as much down to luck as good judgment. Whilst I find a trainer being so bullish refreshing ,somebody might want to remind him that horses make fools of all of us.
 
rbtblb82 said:
Arkle = no horse older than 8 in recent times
Champion Hurdle = no horse older than 9 in recent times
Champion Chase = 11 Year Old Moscow Flyer in 2005, 10 Year Old Sprinter Sacre in 2016 and 10 Year Old Special Tiara in 2017
Pertemps = 10 Year Old Bueno Vista in 2011
Mares Hurdle = 10 Year Old Quevega in 2014 (this horse won it 6 times in a row!)
Stayers Hurdle = 11 Year Old Sire Du Berlais in 2023
Ryanair Chase = 10 Year Old Fondmort in 2006, 10 Year Old Our Vic in 2008 and 10 Year Old Albertas Run in 2011
Gold Cup = 10 Year Old Cool Dawn in 1998

No other races / most others are novice races so horses are younger.
Click to expand...
WHAT A MYTH won the gold cup in 1969 at 12yrs old, was a hunter chaser at the time, he was a good old handicapper that rarely got his ground (soft/heavy) but matched strides with horses like STALBRIDGE COLONIST & WOODLAND VENTURE.
All three had the problem of ARKLE who gave them 2 stone or more.
 
tacker said:
WHAT A MYTH won the gold cup in 1969 at 12yrs old, was a hunter chaser at the time, he was a good old handicapper that rarely got his ground (soft/heavy) but matched strides with horses like STALBRIDGE COLONIST & WOODLAND VENTURE.
All three had the problem of ARKLE who gave them 2 stone or more.
Click to expand...
And probably Flyingbolt too.
 
What to watch out for over the next two weeks......

Saturday 24th January - Cheltenham Trials Day

12:05 - TIMEFORM NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE - 2m4f - £21k - 5yo+

12:40 - JCB TRIUMPH TRIAL JUVENILE HURDLE (Grade 2) - 2m - £45k - 4yo
Current Favourite: Maestro Conti 10/11

13:15 - BETFAIR EXCHANGE HANDICAP CHASE (PREMIER HANDICAP) - 2m4f - £56k - 5yo+
Current Favourite: Jagwar 7/4

13:50 - GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE - 3m5f - £18k - 5yo+
Current Favourite: J'arrive De L'Est 7/4

14:25 - BETFAIR COTSWOLD CHASE (Grade 2) - 3m1f - £71k - 5yo+
Current Favourite: Grey Dawning 1/2

15:00 - UNIBET HURDLE (International) (Grade 2) - 2m - £71k - 4yo+
Current Favourite: Sir Gino 4/9

15:35 - PERTEMPS NETWORK CLEEVE HURDLE (Grade 2) - 2m7f - £39k - 5yo+
Current Favourite: Impose Toi 5/4

16:10 - AIS NOVICES' HURDLE (Classic) (Grade 2) - 2m4f - £45k - 4yo+














SUNDAY 01st February @ LEOPARDSTOWN

13:10 - LADBROKES NOVICE STEEPLECHASE (Grade 1)​

13:40 - TATTERSALLS IRELAND NOVICE HURDLE (Grade 1)​

14:10 - LADBROKES DUBLIN STEEPLECHASE (Grade 1)

15:20 - IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE (Grade 1)
 
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