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Can AI Find Winners in UK Flat Racing?

cpw cpw, I am just a pen-and-paper assessor -it's an age thing (being 88), so may have no bearing on how you work -sad really :(.
However, I have compiled my version of a VDW platform chart for the Mar 5.10.

Market Rasen (Good) Mkt odds at 2.25pm.
5.10 Early market expected no's 2, 3, 4, 5 indicating an open contest.
Col hdgs: £class chasing/consistency/RPR/best RPR
1. **** Jet Plane (5/1 mkt)
2. *0** Franky Du Berlais (4/1)
3. 0*** Envious Editor (3/1)
4. *0*0 Imac Wood (7/2)
5. 0*00 Small Bad Bob (4/1)
MY comment: Top three Jet Plane, Franky Du Berlais, Envious Editor. Jet Plane is the selection without a 'subject to other consideration' check.
ATR form verdict to compare with the above.
Chris Ward and IMAC WOOD have struck up a fine partnership and the six-year-old has won half of his 12 chase starts, most recently at Uttoxeter in July. There should be even more to come from him and he is preferred to Small Bad Bob, who was successful over the smaller obstacles at Huntingdon when last seen. Envious Editor put in a solid effort to fill the runner-up berth at Worcester, while Jet Plane's hat-trick bid ended in failure at the Scottish National meeting and he is 4lb higher for his return.
Top Tip Imac Wood (4)
Watch out for: Small Bad Bob (5)
Timeform
No shortage of in-form sorts in this small-field affair including IMAC WOOD. He enhanced his excellent strike rate over fences (well backed) at Uttoxeter (20f) in July and, still only a 6-y-o, there's a suspicion he could yet have more to offer. Jet Plane, on seasonal bow, and Francky du Berlais head the dangers.
Imac Wood (4)
Jet Plane (1)
Francky Du Berlais (2
 
DuckandDive said:
From my viewpoint, I like to compare different approaches and see if I can add/takeway anything to improve the overall picture. Have to be careful not to backfit, so any tweak is put back through previous workings and assessed. The computer/A.I. can objectively review/assess a race without the emotion or personal bias.

Racing authorities do change the rules of how runners qualify or the actual race conditions, eg: Cheltenham 2025. So whatever's in the form book or trend analysis algorithm may need a review.

The "80 %" known information takes some working out and your data-sets go someway in getting nearer to the 80%.

The other 20% "unknown" can maybe estimated by the live market or a trainer/jockey publicly reporting a negative about a runner, or if it misbehaves in the paddock, sweats up, on its' toes....etc (also if the trainer really wants it to win on the day)
Click to expand...
Indeed it's so true. My Podcast today here Racing Winners 280924-8-30 Deep Dive.mp4
 
Jackform said:
cpw cpw, I am just a pen-and-paper assessor -it's an age thing (being 88), so may have no bearing on how you work -sad really :(.
However, I have compiled my version of a VDW platform chart for the Mar 5.10.

Market Rasen (Good) Mkt odds at 2.25pm.
5.10 Early market expected no's 2, 3, 4, 5 indicating an open contest.
Col hdgs: £class chasing/consistency/RPR/best RPR
1. **** Jet Plane (5/1 mkt)
2. *0** Franky Du Berlais (4/1)
3. 0*** Envious Editor (3/1)
4. *0*0 Imac Wood (7/2)
5. 0*00 Small Bad Bob (4/1)
MY comment: Top three Jet Plane, Franky Du Berlais, Envious Editor. Jet Plane is the selection without a 'subject to other consideration' check.
ATR form verdict to compare with the above.
Chris Ward and IMAC WOOD have struck up a fine partnership and the six-year-old has won half of his 12 chase starts, most recently at Uttoxeter in July. There should be even more to come from him and he is preferred to Small Bad Bob, who was successful over the smaller obstacles at Huntingdon when last seen. Envious Editor put in a solid effort to fill the runner-up berth at Worcester, while Jet Plane's hat-trick bid ended in failure at the Scottish National meeting and he is 4lb higher for his return.
Top Tip Imac Wood (4)
Watch out for: Small Bad Bob (5)
Timeform
No shortage of in-form sorts in this small-field affair including IMAC WOOD. He enhanced his excellent strike rate over fences (well backed) at Uttoxeter (20f) in July and, still only a 6-y-o, there's a suspicion he could yet have more to offer. Jet Plane, on seasonal bow, and Francky du Berlais head the dangers.
Imac Wood (4)
Jet Plane (1)
Francky Du Berlais (2
Click to expand...
I love the paper and pen fellows. This means the work has taken time to do and focused. I am so proud of you 88 and still going strong.
 
Jackform said:
cpw cpw, I am just a pen-and-paper assessor -it's an age thing (being 88), so may have no bearing on how you work -sad really :(.
However, I have compiled my version of a VDW platform chart for the Mar 5.10.

Market Rasen (Good) Mkt odds at 2.25pm.
5.10 Early market expected no's 2, 3, 4, 5 indicating an open contest.
Col hdgs: £class chasing/consistency/RPR/best RPR
1. **** Jet Plane (5/1 mkt)
2. *0** Franky Du Berlais (4/1)
3. 0*** Envious Editor (3/1)
4. *0*0 Imac Wood (7/2)
5. 0*00 Small Bad Bob (4/1)
MY comment: Top three Jet Plane, Franky Du Berlais, Envious Editor. Jet Plane is the selection without a 'subject to other consideration' check.
ATR form verdict to compare with the above.
Chris Ward and IMAC WOOD have struck up a fine partnership and the six-year-old has won half of his 12 chase starts, most recently at Uttoxeter in July. There should be even more to come from him and he is preferred to Small Bad Bob, who was successful over the smaller obstacles at Huntingdon when last seen. Envious Editor put in a solid effort to fill the runner-up berth at Worcester, while Jet Plane's hat-trick bid ended in failure at the Scottish National meeting and he is 4lb higher for his return.
Top Tip Imac Wood (4)
Watch out for: Small Bad Bob (5)
Timeform
No shortage of in-form sorts in this small-field affair including IMAC WOOD. He enhanced his excellent strike rate over fences (well backed) at Uttoxeter (20f) in July and, still only a 6-y-o, there's a suspicion he could yet have more to offer. Jet Plane, on seasonal bow, and Francky du Berlais head the dangers.
Imac Wood (4)
Jet Plane (1)
Francky Du Berlais (2
Click to expand...
I didn't watch the race but your horse won which is all good.
 
IMO this thread had some potential.

The issue, apart from the OP wanting to piggy back a paid service within the forum without checking first, was that the OP never really engaged with any detail and mainly after-timed the results.

I thought it might have been the return of the soul of an upgraded VDW....maybe it was...
 
Problem is picking and choosing results - if you back or rate every race every day you are are going to to find some exceptional winners - but we all know that will not lead to profIt over time . I don’t doubt the system can reason through form and come to same conclusion that 90% of raters will find but they are not all live betting prospects. If it really works all they will find are odds on Favs as they will backing the same horses the bookies are also finding using such technology - Laying will be ( if it’s not already ) rule
 
markfinn said:
If it really works all they will find are odds on Favs as they will backing the same horses the bookies are also finding using such technology
Click to expand...

I'm not convinced the bookies would bother that much with A.I in this way for horse racing, maybe for other areas of sports betting. They invariably follow the lead of something/someone as the oddschecker is rarely out line, but that can give the astute bettor an edge, and then of course, they have the option to refuse/restrict a bet to balance this.

They would likely use it for analysing their bottom line and weeding out of the winners and keep the losers. Someone did say the accountants will "save the world". It's just another form of accounting, saving their world.

Reckon A.I will simplify the processes over time, it's just a question of what data you want it to prioritise.
 
I think the future edge may be the Pen and A4 and perhaps this has always been so. ? I suspect the Bookmakers have been had over by the IT consultants who prob sold the " Automation will save you money " story, but the algorithms do not always work and having got rid of there old school employees who did know odds and form they are now left indecisive Re horse race betting and this will be costing them money. !
 
mick said:
do not always work and having got rid of there old school employees who did know odds and form they are now left indecisive
Click to expand...

Odds compiling, before the computers, was a skill. (still is to an extent). Replacing them with a computer/algorithm, will, as you say, leave them in a quandary, especially when the computer throws a wobbly and you're left twiddling your thumbs. (similar to betting shops - not training staff how to settle a bet manually)

Many examples of IT consultants over-selling their wares, occurs in other industries too. NHS for one, billions lost to the taxpayer.

1729155891176.png

Bet they still got paid a pretty penny for doing nought...

The current day NHS.app works well on the laptop and mobile, probably at a fraction of the above!
 
I do miss the newspapers, sitting down trying to find the winner, using my own way of doing pen and paper calculations, I had some good wins as well.
It doesn't seem personal nowadays as all on a computer and miss the brain doing a bit of work all for the sake of getting a bit of time back. Although we do need time for everything, AI has its place today but only as a guide then use your own judgement.
 
Michael231 said:
I do miss the newspapers, sitting down trying to find the winner, using my own way of doing pen and paper calculations, I had some good wins as well.
It doesn't seem personal nowadays as all on a computer and miss the brain doing a bit of work all for the sake of getting a bit of time back. Although we do need time for everything, AI has its place today but only as a guide then use your own judgement.
Click to expand...

Reckon it comes down where/how you want to spend your time. Using A.I for racing/sports is interesting, learning a new skill at any time in your life is important too, in fact, anything that can assist, enhance your life and save you time, must be a given.

The newspaper I used to buy each day, was the Daily Mirror, as it lent itself to system creation. ie: SF, F, EW and Spotform..etc Ain't gonna pay £1.60 a day for it now, might consider it at the weekend with more sports going on.
 
DuckandDive said:
Reckon it comes down where/how you want to spend your time. Using A.I for racing/sports is interesting, learning a new skill at any time in your life is important too, in fact, anything that can assist, enhance your life and save you time, must be a given.

The newspaper I used to buy each day, was the Daily Mirror, as it lent itself to system creation. ie: SF, F, EW and Spotform..etc Ain't gonna pay £1.60 a day for it now, might consider it at the weekend with more sports going on.
Click to expand...
Think it was Chesham Chesham who pointed this out to me, you get get a library card and access copies of all newspapers (exc The Sun completely free, using the press reader app, regional papers and magazines also on there.Interantional publications etc, Even the US drf is on there.
I see pensioners in my local Tesco coming out with about £10 worth of newspapers and I read them for free.
Newspapers are not what they were for racing coverage , in the old days was fun seeing how the ratings etc in the Express , Daily Mail and Mirror would get on but now they all have generic ratings supplied by the press association.
 
gerry said:
I have lifted one up in shop just have quick look and i cant even read them any more either the writing is getting smaller or my eyes are really bad.
Click to expand...
Yes that’s another issue , I can’t read them either even with my latest prescription, seems this optician thing is a racket, as soon as your start wearing glasses every few month your eyes deteriorate and you need a stronger pair, with the press reader thing you can zoom in a bit or get them to read the articles with audio.
 
I went to the optician a year ago and told him i dont want them for reading or seeing long distance i want them for my pc lets say18 inches to 2ft away and the other optician i was with for 30 years said you cant get that.
This young guy said straight away yeah i get that and held his lap top and said how far are you usually away i am like moving it about and said there lol.
And he done my eyes and there brilliant on pc now i think first time ever not had headache on pc for length of time.
I bought two pair the same dont know why never even took other pair out case yet and i get message every 6 month or so your eyes need checking , I m like no these will do me another 20 years i hope.
As i got laser on both eyes 20 odd years ago its just for pc i need them.
 
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