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Can AI Find Winners in UK Flat Racing?

Yes it's written in VB in 1996.
I'm not trying to piss you off but if PPG can emulate your AI then there is something amiss.
 
Nervous said:
Yes it's written in VB in 1996.
I'm not trying to piss you off but if PPG can emulate your AI then there is something amiss.
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Sorry got that wrong it's not written VB, my bad. I was thinking of Basic not Visual Basic. Now I'm not sure what language it is written in.
 
cpw cpw Nervous Nervous Some cracking results from both of you yesterday.

My take on it is, that both sets of results demonstrate how computer software/A.I. can find winners, within groups, by assessing key variables and producing a set of ratings/tissue that can be utilised for value betting.

It has motivated me personally to look more closely at finding groups of selections in a race, ideally value based. A lot will depend on how good the information/data is that goes into the melting pot, as the ole G.I.G.O. applies at every turn. (garbage in garbage out). Add to that, if there is any edge, as many bets as possible should be placed to take advantage of it. The ROI will drop, but the turnover will increase along with the profits.
 
DuckandDive said:
cpw cpw Nervous Nervous Some cracking results from both of you yesterday.

My take on it is, that both sets of results demonstrate how computer software/A.I. can find winners, within groups, by assessing key variables and producing a set of ratings/tissue that can be utilised for value betting.

It has motivated me personally to look more closely at finding groups of selections in a race, ideally value based. A lot will depend on how good the information/data is that goes into the melting pot, as the ole G.I.G.O. applies at every turn. (garbage in garbage out). Add to that, if there is any edge, as many bets as possible should be placed to take advantage of it. The ROI will drop, but the turnover will increase along with the profits.
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Thanks. It would be good to have some assistance with the tracking of the methods. I have faith in my ratings as it's a result of years of work. AI is basically a reasoning engine for me. I already have the ratings worked out, and I simply passing on to the AI to provide a debate and reason my selections.
 
cpw said:
Thanks. It would be good to have some assistance with the tracking of the methods. I have faith in my ratings as it's a result of years of work. AI is basically a reasoning engine for me. I already have the ratings worked out, and I simply passing on to the AI to provide a debate and reason my selections.
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So basically you're using AI output as some sort of racing pundit.
I have nothing that thrills me for today mainly because of ground conditions. However I am posting this one for PPG in a very open 5 runner Hcap Chase at Market Rasen. Maybe you could post your take on this race and DuckandDive DuckandDive if he will.

Market Rasen.PNG
 
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Nervous said:
So basically you're using AI output as some sort of racing pundit.
I have nothing that thrills me for today mainly because of ground conditions. However I am posting this one for PPG in a very open 5 runner Hcap Chase at Market Rasen. Maybe you could post your take on this race and DuckandDive DuckandDive if he will.

View attachment 151025
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My models only focus on Flat UK Handicap races. However, can I still ask the AI to do a summary based purely on the public domain data and then request a recommendation? I am using AI mainly to find things that I may have missed.
 
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Jet Plane (IRE) comes into this race with a solid record, especially at this course and on similar going. With 2 runs at the course resulting in 1 win (50%), and a similar 50% success rate on similar ground, he looks well-suited to the conditions. He’s had a break of 5 months, but history suggests he performs well fresh, making him a strong contender. His 6 career wins, including 4 during 2023/24, demonstrate his consistency and ability to deliver under various conditions. Trainer-jockey duo Dan and Harry Skelton also have a successful track record, which further bolsters confidence in his chances. He’s likely to be in the mix at the finish.

Francky Du Berlais (FR) has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly over course and distance, where he’s had 2 wins and 2 places from 8 starts. However, his recent form is less convincing, having not won in over two years. That said, he has been a reliable servant to his connections, including multiple wins at this level. His last run was disappointing, but as a horse known for bouncing back, he can’t be ruled out entirely. Despite his age, Francky could surprise if he regains his earlier form, but he appears riskier than others based on recent performances.

Envious Editor (IRE) presents a strong case, having won 2 of his 3 starts over today’s distance, giving him a strong 66.67% success rate. He’s in good form, following a second-place finish at Worcester earlier this month. Although his record on similar going is not as impressive (2 wins from 16 runs), his recent form shows he is currently at his peak. Having switched yards and demonstrated his ability to bounce back after a point-to-point success, he’s one to watch closely, as he continues to show improvement and resilience.

Imac Wood (FR) enters the race on the back of an impressive recent win at Uttoxeter, where he dominated a 6-runner handicap chase. At just 6 years old, he still has room for further improvement. He boasts a strong 40% win rate over today’s distance and a respectable 27.3% win rate on similar going. He’s proven to be a consistent performer, winning 6 of his 12 chase starts, and is clearly on the upward trajectory. With further progress not ruled out, he could be a standout runner in this contest.

Small Bad Bob (IRE) has had mixed results over today’s distance, with just 1 win from 6 starts. However, his recent victory at Huntingdon over a similar trip showed that he still has what it takes. While his win and place rate isn’t as strong as some of the other contenders, he remains a fair hurdler/chaser, especially with fresh legs after a break. His experience and ability to perform across a range of conditions keep him in the conversation, but he might find the competition tough in this particular race.

Best Selection:​

Jet Plane (IRE) stands out as the best option in this field. His combination of a strong course record, impressive going stats, and success after a break make him the most reliable and consistent choice. With Dan and Harry Skelton in his corner, and a proven ability to handle today’s conditions, he looks poised to deliver a strong performance.
 
So I asked AI to compare your top selection and it's pick. Here is what I got.
Here’s a detailed comparison between Jet Plane (IRE) and Francky Du Berlais (FR), highlighting key factors to help assess which horse may have the edge.

Jet Plane (IRE)​

  • Course Record: Jet Plane has run twice at this course, winning once, giving him a 50% strike rate. This indicates that he performs well here, especially considering the nature of the track.
  • Distance Record: With 3 runs over today's distance, he has 1 win, showing he can handle the trip, though his distance success rate (33.33%) is lower than his course rate.
  • Similar Going: Jet Plane has run 8 times on similar ground conditions and won 4 of those races, giving him a strong 50% success rate. This suggests that he is highly effective on today’s likely going.
  • Headgear Performance: He has worn a tongue strap in 19 races, winning 6 times (31.58%), showing some success with this equipment.
  • Form: Although Jet Plane was beaten last time out, it was in April, and the break could work to his advantage. He’s performed well when fresh before, which is a key positive heading into this race. With 4 wins already in the 2023/24 season, his current form is solid.
  • Connections: The Skelton team (Dan and Harry) are a successful trainer-jockey partnership. Harry Skelton has ridden Jet Plane 13 times, winning 4 of those races, giving him a solid 30.8% win rate with this horse. Their partnership is an added strength for Jet Plane.

Francky Du Berlais (FR)​

  • Course and Distance Record: Francky Du Berlais has much more experience at this course and distance, with 8 runs resulting in 2 wins and 2 places, giving him a 25% win rate. This suggests a level of consistency and familiarity with the track.
  • Distance Record: Over the race distance, he has run 19 times, with 3 wins and 6 places (15.79%). His strike rate over the distance is lower than Jet Plane's, but he has proven stamina for longer trips and can handle this distance with more experience behind him.
  • Similar Going: Francky has 42 runs on similar ground, with 7 wins and 13 places (16.67%). Although less impressive than Jet Plane’s going record, he’s handled the surface plenty of times, showing experience in different conditions.
  • Headgear Performance: He has placed while wearing a tongue strap and cheek pieces but hasn’t won in this combination recently. His overall headgear record suggests a lower success rate compared to Jet Plane, especially in recent performances.
  • Form: Francky Du Berlais has been a stalwart performer for his connections, but his last win came over two years ago. He was well beaten in his most recent outing, finishing 13th at Killarney. Despite being a multiple winner at this course and distance, his form has dipped recently, and his ability to bounce back is uncertain.
  • Connections: Francky’s trainer and jockey combination, Peter and James Bowen, have had a successful past with this horse. However, his win percentage with James Bowen is not particularly high, which may add some uncertainty.

Comparison:​

  • Course Performance: Jet Plane holds the edge with a higher win percentage (50%) over the course compared to Francky Du Berlais’ 22.22%. However, Francky has more experience at the track.
  • Distance Performance: Francky has more experience over this distance, but Jet Plane’s win rate (33.33%) is better than Francky’s (15.79%).
  • Going: Jet Plane has a stronger win rate on similar going (50%) compared to Francky’s 16.67%. This gives Jet Plane an advantage under current conditions.
  • Form: Jet Plane has 4 wins already this season and has shown he can perform well after a break. Francky, meanwhile, has not won in over two years, and his last performance was below par, making him a riskier selection.
  • Connections: While both horses are paired with capable trainers and jockeys, the Skelton partnership has been particularly successful with Jet Plane, giving him an advantage in terms of confidence and experience together.

Conclusion:​

Jet Plane (IRE) appears to be the stronger contender based on his recent form, better performance on similar ground, and higher success rates at this course. Francky Du Berlais, though experienced and with previous success at this track, has struggled recently and may not offer the same consistency or potential for victory as Jet Plane.
 
Nervous Nervous Current Betfair prices brings 3 into the mix. Chelmsford (AWR) looks promising later.

1727530786178.png

The Racing Post predictor looks about the same.

1727531280387.png


Get home Francky! Class told in the end. This is how the sheet looked after the NR.
1727540482968.png
 
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The AI analysis is using the general information. I usually make note of it but ultimately my weightings is what I go with.
 
cpw said:
Thanks. It would be good to have some assistance with the tracking of the methods. I have faith in my ratings as it's a result of years of work. AI is basically a reasoning engine for me. I already have the ratings worked out, and I simply passing on to the AI to provide a debate and reason my selections.
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From my viewpoint, I like to compare different approaches and see if I can add/takeway anything to improve the overall picture. Have to be careful not to backfit, so any tweak is put back through previous workings and assessed. The computer/A.I. can objectively review/assess a race without the emotion or personal bias.

Racing authorities do change the rules of how runners qualify or the actual race conditions, eg: Cheltenham 2025. So whatever's in the form book or trend analysis algorithm may need a review.

The "80 %" known information takes some working out and your data-sets go someway in getting nearer to the 80%.

The other 20% "unknown" can maybe estimated by the live market or a trainer/jockey publicly reporting a negative about a runner, or if it misbehaves in the paddock, sweats up, on its' toes....etc (also if the trainer really wants it to win on the day)
 
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