• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

CALCULATED BETS.

I did not have memory switched on in chat gpt and have lost what i was doing so i have started again but it will take time to get back to where i was. Here is the Basis of what i am doing.

ComponentWeightWhat it measures
Speed30%Performance against a calculated standard time
Class20%Strength/quality of the race
Weight15%Weight carried and weight differences
Finishing performance10%Winning/losing margins and finishing position
Form strength10%Quality of horses beaten / finishing around the horse
Going5%Performance relative to ground conditions
Course & distance5%Suitability to today's conditions
Recency/trend5%Whether the horse is improving, maintaining or regressing
 
Kemp AW 19.30 Hcp.

100% Tissue​


HorseRatingModel %Fair decimalFair fractional approx.Market*View
LAKE COMO86.528.6%3.505/22/1UNDERLAY / MOST LIKELY
VICTORY ACE84.020.0%5.004/15/2UNDERLAY
LUCKY CAMINO81.013.0%7.6713/2–7/19/1VALUE
BREAKDANCER79.510.5%9.5017/27/1Slight underlay
CHAPTER79.09.8%10.219/17/1UNDERLAY
MR PROFESSOR78.08.5%11.7811/114/1VALUE
DARN HOT GALLOP76.56.9%14.5913/1–14/112/1FAIR / marginal underlay
NIGHT WOLF68.02.0%49.148/150/1FAIR
LILI MARLEEN60.00.6%154.1150/1+125/1UNDERLAY

No bet just testing the model.
 

Hamilton 20:15 — Tissue vs Market​


RankHorseRatingModel %Fair OddsMarketEdge vs FairView
1King Of The Jungle81.3115.35%6.517.50 (13/2)+15%VALUE
2Harb64.2912.14%8.244.00 (3/1)-51%UNDERLAY
3Tanjen63.2111.93%8.382.88 (15/8)-66%UNDERLAY
4Never Dark49.919.42%10.618.50 (15/2)-20%UNDERLAY
5Supremissy46.818.84%11.3121.00 (20/1)+86%BIG-PRICE VALUE
6Falcon Queen42.468.02%12.4719.00 (18/1)+52%BIG-PRICE VALUE
7Impressor42.157.96%12.576.50 (11/2)-48%UNDERLAY
8Jm Jhingree41.237.78%12.8519.00 (18/1)+48%BIG-PRICE VALUE
9Kyber Crystal36.016.80%14.7123.00 (22/1)+56%BIG-PRICE VALUE
10Doon The Glen32.976.22%16.077.50 (13/2)-53%UNDERLAY
11Thistle Nil29.295.53%18.0834.00 (33/1)+88%BIG-PRICE VALUE

Model test, King of the Jungle to win @ 13/2
Thistle nil won @40/1
 
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17:10 Lingfield — Model vs RaceMetrics vs Market​





Consensus % = (Our Model % + RaceMetrics %) ÷ 2

Moonrunner win bet £1 @ 7/1 at corals.
HorseOur %RM %Consensus %Consensus FairMarketOur FairAssessment
Epictetus11.98%18.4%15.19%6.585/1 (6.00)8.35Slight underlay
Mwafaq15.75%12.7%14.23%7.034/1 (5.00)6.35UNDERLAY
Moonrunner13.79%14.1%13.95%7.177/1 (8.00)7.25VALUE
Cloth Of Gold12.73%9.7%11.22%8.915/2 (3.50)7.86MAJOR UNDERLAY
Wanderlust9.29%12.7%11.00%9.098/1 (9.00)10.77Essentially fair consensus
Orchard10.03%10.6%10.32%9.699/2 (5.50)9.97UNDERLAY
Pomme Pomme10.85%7.9%9.38%10.6716/1 (17.00)9.22BIG-PRICE VALUE
Kokanee8.10%8.7%8.40%11.907/1 (8.00)12.35Underlay
Skibo7.50%5.4%6.45%15.5020/1 (21.00)13.34Value at price
 

19:48 Windsor — 5f Handicap​


HorseModel %Fair OddsRM %Consensus %MarketView
Darkened Edge18.46%9/221.2%19.83%4/1Preferred
Just Jump14.99%11/215.9%15.44%11/8🔴 UNDERLAY
Dragon God13.76%13/213.9%13.83%13/2🟢 VALUE / FAIR+
Trafalger12.27%7/112.4%12.34%7/1FAIR
Faustus11.13%8/17.2%9.17%9/2🔴 UNDERLAY
The Bear Of Saints9.65%9/110.2%9.93%22/1🟢 BIG-PRICE VALUE
Em Jay Kay8.08%11/14.5%6.29%40/1🟢 BIG-PRICE VALUE
Desdemona7.17%13/16.7%6.93%33/1🟢 VALUE
Our Planet4.48%20/18.0%6.24%18/1FAIR / UNDERLAY

Darkened edge to win on F/S tip recorder
 
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Lingfield 16:00 — 25 August 2026


  • Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap
  • 7f 1y, AW Standard
  • Class 6, 3yo 0–65
  • 10 runners
  • MOR 63
  • Random probability 10.0%
  • HHI 0.18
  • Each-way terms: 1/5 odds, 3 places

#HorseDraw A/EDSLRORWeightC/DRan WellAvg SFAW runsTACEVE%
1Strong Voice1.046659-9—50.0%54.711.0518.2%
2Bird Of War0.9721659-9—10.0%54.720.9515.4%
3Quick Quasar0.9712639-7D33.3%54.750.8610.0%
4Chapman’s Peak0.9910639-7D20.0%51.350.86—
5Coxy’s Star1.0415639-7——53.311.285.3%
6Viking Glory0.9720639-7D11.1%49.311.1333.3%
7Tie Fighter0.9950639-7—30.0%55.321.265.3%
8Musical Soldier0.9924619-5D42.9%60.761.1426.7%
9Athena’s War1.0415609-4—40.0%49.021.212.0%
10Ragaire0.9712468-4————0.913.5%

100% tissue​


The evening price is reverse-calculated from EVE%: 100 ÷ EVE%. It is not a current live price.


HorseRatingModel win %Fair oddsEvening priceNormalised market %View
Strong Voice7822.2%4.51 (7/2)5.49 (9/2)15.2%VALUE
Musical Soldier7720.1%4.98 (4/1)3.75 (11/4)22.3%UNDERLAY
Tie Fighter7414.9%6.71 (11/2)18.87 (18/1)4.4%BIG-PRICE VALUE
Quick Quasar7212.2%8.20 (7/1)10.00 (9/1)8.4%VALUE
Bird Of War688.2%12.20 (11/1)6.49 (11/2)12.9%UNDERLAY
Coxy’s Star666.7%14.93 (14/1)18.87 (18/1)4.4%VALUE
Athena’s War656.0%16.67 (16/1)50.00 (49/1)1.7%BIG-PRICE VALUE
Viking Glory634.9%20.41 (19/1)3.00 (2/1)27.8%UNDERLAY
Chapman’s Peak614.1%24.39 (23/1)——NO PRICE
Ragaire450.7%142.86 (142/1)28.57 (28/1)2.9%UNDER

Strong voice to win @ 9/2 sky bet.

1787683953171.png
 
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Wolverhampton 15:00 — 26 August 2026​


Free Tips On attheraces.com “Confined” Handicap
6f 20y | AW Standard | Class 5 | 3yo+ 0–70 | 9 runners




Ranked ratings​


RankHorseRatingMain positivesMain concerns
1Currahee7859.0 SF; 42.9% Ran Well; 9-2; recent runOR 60; no C/D badge; TAC slightly negative
2Royal Accord76OR 69; 57.3 SF; distance winner; seven AW runs0.84 TAC; carries 9-11
3Diamondinthedark75OR 70; 75% Ran Well; CD winner; 1.25 TACLow 51.7 SF; only one discipline run
4Alshimali73Field-best 60.3 SF; 42.1% Ran Well; 9-1254-day absence; OR 59
5Campenaerts72OR 68; course winner; exceptional 1.38 TAC48-day break; only moderate SF
6Night Mission70OR 68; 56.5 SF; positive 1.09 TACOnly 14.3% Ran Well; 40-day break
7Guernsey Angel69Course winner; 1.19 TAC; recent; six AW runs53.7 SF; OR 66
8Bellagio Man63Distance winner; 56 AW runs; receives weight117-day absence; 0.85 TAC
9Miracleoftheandes549-0; recent; positive 1.17 TACNo SF, Ran Well or discipline evidence

100% tissue​


HorseRatingModel win %Fair decimal oddsApprox fair priceMarketView
Currahee7818.9%5.309/2—AWAITING PRICE
Royal Accord7616.0%6.2521/4—AWAITING PRICE
Diamondinthedark7514.7%6.806/1—AWAITING PRICE
Alshimali7312.4%8.067/1—AWAITING PRICE
Campenaerts7211.4%8.7731/4—AWAITING PRICE
Night Mission709.7%10.319/1—AWAITING PRICE
Guernsey Angel698.9%11.2410/1—AWAITING PRICE
Bellagio Man635.4%18.5217/1—AWAITING PRICE
Miracleoftheandes542.6%38.4637/1—AWAITING PRICE

I have backed Diamondinthedark on F/S tip recorder to win. BUT

Is Diamondinthedark a false favourite?​


Yes—on the posted figures, Diamondinthedark is a probable false favourite.


The evening market position is:


  • Raw EVE probability: 28.6%
  • Approximate evening price: 3.50, or 5/2
  • Normalised market probability: 23.2%
  • Model probability: 14.7%
  • Model fair price: 6.80, approximately 6/1

Her positives are substantial:


  • Highest OR at 70
  • Excellent 75% Ran Well rate
  • Proven course-and-distance winner
  • Favourable draw
  • Strong 1.25 TAC

But the market appears to be underpricing two important risks:


  • Her 51.7 average SF is second-lowest among the eight runners with a figure.
  • She has only one previous discipline run, making the 75% Ran Well figure potentially less robust than it initially appears.

She deserves respect, but the model cannot justify her holding more than 23% of the overround-free market

1787693058575.png
 
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