CALCULATED BETS.
- Thread starter Sol Ski
- Start date
I did not have memory switched on in chat gpt and have lost what i was doing so i have started again but it will take time to get back to where i was. Here is the Basis of what i am doing.
| Component | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Speed | 30% | Performance against a calculated standard time |
| Class | 20% | Strength/quality of the race |
| Weight | 15% | Weight carried and weight differences |
| Finishing performance | 10% | Winning/losing margins and finishing position |
| Form strength | 10% | Quality of horses beaten / finishing around the horse |
| Going | 5% | Performance relative to ground conditions |
| Course & distance | 5% | Suitability to today's conditions |
| Recency/trend | 5% | Whether the horse is improving, maintaining or regressing |
Kemp AW 19.30 Hcp.
No bet just testing the model.
100% Tissue
| Horse | Rating | Model % | Fair decimal | Fair fractional approx. | Market* | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAKE COMO | 86.5 | 28.6% | 3.50 | 5/2 | 2/1 | UNDERLAY / MOST LIKELY |
| VICTORY ACE | 84.0 | 20.0% | 5.00 | 4/1 | 5/2 | UNDERLAY |
| LUCKY CAMINO | 81.0 | 13.0% | 7.67 | 13/2–7/1 | 9/1 | VALUE |
| BREAKDANCER | 79.5 | 10.5% | 9.50 | 17/2 | 7/1 | Slight underlay |
| CHAPTER | 79.0 | 9.8% | 10.21 | 9/1 | 7/1 | UNDERLAY |
| MR PROFESSOR | 78.0 | 8.5% | 11.78 | 11/1 | 14/1 | VALUE |
| DARN HOT GALLOP | 76.5 | 6.9% | 14.59 | 13/1–14/1 | 12/1 | FAIR / marginal underlay |
| NIGHT WOLF | 68.0 | 2.0% | 49.1 | 48/1 | 50/1 | FAIR |
| LILI MARLEEN | 60.0 | 0.6% | 154.1 | 150/1+ | 125/1 | UNDERLAY |
No bet just testing the model.
Hamilton 20:15 — Tissue vs Market
| Rank | Horse | Rating | Model % | Fair Odds | Market | Edge vs Fair | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Of The Jungle | 81.31 | 15.35% | 6.51 | 7.50 (13/2) | +15% | VALUE |
| 2 | Harb | 64.29 | 12.14% | 8.24 | 4.00 (3/1) | -51% | UNDERLAY |
| 3 | Tanjen | 63.21 | 11.93% | 8.38 | 2.88 (15/8) | -66% | UNDERLAY |
| 4 | Never Dark | 49.91 | 9.42% | 10.61 | 8.50 (15/2) | -20% | UNDERLAY |
| 5 | Supremissy | 46.81 | 8.84% | 11.31 | 21.00 (20/1) | +86% | BIG-PRICE VALUE |
| 6 | Falcon Queen | 42.46 | 8.02% | 12.47 | 19.00 (18/1) | +52% | BIG-PRICE VALUE |
| 7 | Impressor | 42.15 | 7.96% | 12.57 | 6.50 (11/2) | -48% | UNDERLAY |
| 8 | Jm Jhingree | 41.23 | 7.78% | 12.85 | 19.00 (18/1) | +48% | BIG-PRICE VALUE |
| 9 | Kyber Crystal | 36.01 | 6.80% | 14.71 | 23.00 (22/1) | +56% | BIG-PRICE VALUE |
| 10 | Doon The Glen | 32.97 | 6.22% | 16.07 | 7.50 (13/2) | -53% | UNDERLAY |
| 11 | Thistle Nil | 29.29 | 5.53% | 18.08 | 34.00 (33/1) | +88% | BIG-PRICE VALUE |
Model test, King of the Jungle to win @ 13/2
Thistle nil won @40/1
Last edited:
17:10 Lingfield — Model vs RaceMetrics vs Market
Consensus % = (Our Model % + RaceMetrics %) ÷ 2
Moonrunner win bet £1 @ 7/1 at corals.
| Horse | Our % | RM % | Consensus % | Consensus Fair | Market | Our Fair | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epictetus | 11.98% | 18.4% | 15.19% | 6.58 | 5/1 (6.00) | 8.35 | Slight underlay |
| Mwafaq | 15.75% | 12.7% | 14.23% | 7.03 | 4/1 (5.00) | 6.35 | UNDERLAY |
| Moonrunner | 13.79% | 14.1% | 13.95% | 7.17 | 7/1 (8.00) | 7.25 | VALUE |
| Cloth Of Gold | 12.73% | 9.7% | 11.22% | 8.91 | 5/2 (3.50) | 7.86 | MAJOR UNDERLAY |
| Wanderlust | 9.29% | 12.7% | 11.00% | 9.09 | 8/1 (9.00) | 10.77 | Essentially fair consensus |
| Orchard | 10.03% | 10.6% | 10.32% | 9.69 | 9/2 (5.50) | 9.97 | UNDERLAY |
| Pomme Pomme | 10.85% | 7.9% | 9.38% | 10.67 | 16/1 (17.00) | 9.22 | BIG-PRICE VALUE |
| Kokanee | 8.10% | 8.7% | 8.40% | 11.90 | 7/1 (8.00) | 12.35 | Underlay |
| Skibo | 7.50% | 5.4% | 6.45% | 15.50 | 20/1 (21.00) | 13.34 | Value at price |