CALCULATED BETS.
- Thread starter Sol Ski
- Start date
Doncaster 16:10 — French Connection At Meadowhall Handicap
5½f | Class 4 | 3yo+ | Good to Firm | 10 runners| Rank | Horse | Rating | Price | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1 | Ancient State | 88 | 6/1 | ~9/2 |  VALUE |
 2 | Zubaru | 87 | 10/3 | ~4/1 |  Fair/Short |
 3 | Papa Cocktail | 85 | 6/1 | ~11/2 | Slight Value |
| 4 | Golden Long | 84 | 3/1 | ~9/2 |  Too Short |
| 5 | County Carlow | 83 | 16/1 | ~8/1 | BIG VALUE |
| 6 | Lion's House | 79 | 11/1 | ~12/1 | Fair |
| 7 | Brummell | 77 | 11/1 | ~14/1 | / Short |
| 8 | Squealer | 76 | 10/1 | ~16/1 | Short |
| 9 | Flash Rascal | 74 | 20/1 | ~20/1 |  Fair |
| 10 | Justmyluck | 67 | 40/1 | ~40/1+ | No Edge |
Top Rated: ANCIENT STATE — 88
Best Value: COUNTY CARLOW — 16/1
Secondary Value: PAPA COCKTAIL — 6/1
Poor Value: GOLDEN LONG — 3/1Main Selection:
ANCIENT STATE 6/1Value Play:
COUNTY CARLOW 16/1I have backed both Ancient state and County Carlow £ 1 win on the Tote. i get min Sp payout on a winner or the tote pool share if the pool share is bigger than SP. this whole thing is experimental.
Last edited:
MySportsAI
Yearling
Why don't you back them at Betfair SP you will win more or lose less depending on how things pan out
BF wont let me reopen my account dont know why.
Im playing at this using AI £1 bets only.
Lingfield 19:46 — Latest Tote check
The important point is that our probabilities remain frozen. Only the market comparison changes.| Rank | Horse | Rating | My win % | Fair | Tote fc | EV | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fallacious Promise | 91 | 38% | 2.6 | 2.00 | -0.24 |  No |
| 2 | Credit Forgedd It | 82 | 17% | 5.9 | 4.00 | -0.32 | No |
| 3 | Dark Rosa | 80 | 14% | 7.1 | 6.00 | -0.16 | No |
| 4 | Chapman's Peak | 77 | 11% | 9.1 | 12.00 | +0.32 |  BET |
| 5 | Shamacid | 75 | 9% | 11.1 | 12.00 | +0.08 | No |
| 6 | Mbappe | 72 | 11% | 9.1 | 11.00 | +0.21 | Below threshold |
Decision
£1 WIN — Chapman's PeakNothing has changed in the Tote forecast that makes me want to abandon him. Our estimated fair price is 9.1, versus a Tote forecast of 12.0, giving:
EV = (0.11 × 12.00) − 1 = +0.32
So that's our strongest qualifying edge.
I'm deliberately not adding Mbappe. +0.21 is attractive on paper, but at this early stage of building the model I'd rather demand a larger margin for error.
Likewise, we're not betting Fallacious Promise despite rating him the most likely winner. At 2.00 versus our 2.6 fair price, he's poor value.
So for me this is simple: Chapman's Peak only, £1 win. If you place it, tell me and I'll record the bet in our ledger.
In future i will use current isp near to race time.
Last edited:
MySportsAI
Yearling
It is commendable that you are publishing an updated ledger at the end of each day, keep it up
Value Betting Model — Southwell 15:40
Selection: KISSKODI — £1 WIN
| Measure | Kisskodi |
|---|---|
| Model Rating | 71 |
| Model Win Probability | 6% |
| Model Fair Odds | 16.7 |
| Tote Forecast Taken | 23.5 |
| Model EV | +0.41 / +41% |
| Stake | £1 Win |
| Decision | BET |
Value Calculation
EV = (0.06 × 23.5) − 1 = +0.41
The model assessed Kisskodi at approximately 16.7 fair odds. With the Tote forecast reaching 23.5, the price crossed our value threshold and produced an estimated 41% positive expected value.