CALCULATED BETS.

[Sol Ski]

Hello, as of tomorrow i will post my bets based on steven skienas methods the idea being many small betting edges are better than looking for 1 big edge.
Sol.

 

[Sol Ski]

only 7 months gap but here we go.
starting bank £100 all bets £1 win bets.
Windsor 19.41
Parlando 4th
Bold impact 7th.

Bank £98.

 

[Sol Ski]

I will post all other bets pre race but i think you can forgive 2 losers.

 

[Sol Ski]

Doncaster 16:10 — French Connection At Meadowhall Handicap​

5½f | Class 4 | 3yo+ | Good to Firm | 10 runners

Rank	Horse	Rating	Price	Fair Odds	Value
1	Ancient State	88	6/1	~9/2	VALUE
2	Zubaru	87	10/3	~4/1	Fair/Short
3	Papa Cocktail	85	6/1	~11/2	Slight Value
4	Golden Long	84	3/1	~9/2	Too Short
5	County Carlow	83	16/1	~8/1	BIG VALUE
6	Lion's House	79	11/1	~12/1	Fair
7	Brummell	77	11/1	~14/1	/ Short
8	Squealer	76	10/1	~16/1	Short
9	Flash Rascal	74	20/1	~20/1	Fair
10	Justmyluck	67	40/1	~40/1+	No Edge

Top Rated: ANCIENT STATE — 88
Best Value: COUNTY CARLOW — 16/1
Secondary Value: PAPA COCKTAIL — 6/1
Poor Value: GOLDEN LONG — 3/1

Main Selection: ANCIENT STATE 6/1

Value Play: COUNTY CARLOW 16/1

I have backed both Ancient state and County Carlow £ 1 win on the Tote. i get min Sp payout on a winner or the tote pool share if the pool share is bigger than SP. this whole thing is experimental.

 

[MySportsAI]

Why don't you back them at Betfair SP you will win more or lose less depending on how things pan out

 

[Sol Ski]

Why don't you back them at Betfair SP you will win more or lose less depending on how things pan out

BF wont let me reopen my account dont know why.
Im playing at this using AI £1 bets only.

 

[Sol Ski]

last 2 runners lost.
Bank £96. LR 4.

 

[Sol Ski]

Lingfield 19:46 — Latest Tote check​

The important point is that our probabilities remain frozen. Only the market comparison changes.

Rank	Horse	Rating	My win %	Fair	Tote fc	EV	Value
1	Fallacious Promise	91	38%	2.6	2.00	-0.24	No
2	Credit Forgedd It	82	17%	5.9	4.00	-0.32	No
3	Dark Rosa	80	14%	7.1	6.00	-0.16	No
4	Chapman's Peak	77	11%	9.1	12.00	+0.32	BET
5	Shamacid	75	9%	11.1	12.00	+0.08	No
6	Mbappe	72	11%	9.1	11.00	+0.21	Below threshold

Decision​

£1 WIN — Chapman's Peak
Nothing has changed in the Tote forecast that makes me want to abandon him. Our estimated fair price is 9.1, versus a Tote forecast of 12.0, giving:
EV = (0.11 × 12.00) − 1 = +0.32
So that's our strongest qualifying edge.
I'm deliberately not adding Mbappe. +0.21 is attractive on paper, but at this early stage of building the model I'd rather demand a larger margin for error.
Likewise, we're not betting Fallacious Promise despite rating him the most likely winner. At 2.00 versus our 2.6 fair price, he's poor value.
So for me this is simple: Chapman's Peak only, £1 win. If you place it, tell me and I'll record the bet in our ledger.
In future i will use current isp near to race time.

 

[Sol Ski]

Recorded. Chapman's Peak 2nd — £1 loss.


Updated ledger: Starting bank £100 | Bets 5 | Winners 0 | Staked £5 | Returns £0 | P/L -£5.00 | Bank £95.00 | ROI -100%.

 

[MySportsAI]

It is commendable that you are publishing an updated ledger at the end of each day, keep it up