• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Boxing Day Six 86.

From the ones that do not fit maybe the winner of those races excuse the downturn.

I know that's the case for Celtic Pleasure, giving away weight at too far a trip to the winner who had won LTO as Fav at that trip. From memory.
 
ArkRoyal said:
Pretty sure that HRB cannot confirm your figures.
Out of interest what is the SQL you have used to produce your 30% figures?
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Hi Ark,

i dont use SQL, i interogate my DB inside my Delphi-7 IDE (simply cos any errors are caught by the IDE and thus no crashes etc )

i use the Delphi ( Object Pascal ) language to strip out whatever results i want.

i'm fairly sure it could be done using SQL, i just find it easier using Delphi.

i can paste the Delphi code, if it would help ?
 
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Hi @rave154

Roushayd

3rd LTO Run finished 3/8 beaten 4 lengths. 5/1 sp
2nd LTO Run Finished 4/9 neaten 3.5 Lengths 10/1 sp
LTO Run 6/9 Beaten 9.5 Lengths 12/1 sp
 
We've already mentioned that Roushayd was dropping in class and was shown as away with dealing with class droppers, seemingly inconsistent horses Chesham Chesham.

Most of the earlier examples were moving up in prize and were consistent via form figures.

Which ties in with the above as you would have to deal with these horses if looking at form figures Roushayds 6th lto would appear a downturn in form figures but was dropping in class.
 
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Ahoy again was dropping in class when selected by VDW and was 20/1 LTO.

Beaten by the 1/3F Uwufain who won LTO.
 
formtheory said:
P. King 2nd LTO beaten by Drumagora, was Drumagora a form horse like above?

He finished 3rd LTO and was Fav.

Beacon light was beaten as Fav and the horse who won, was he a form horse like above? No as he fell LTO and before had been absent (from memory)

I'd like to see all the racecards for these races. Be quite interesting.

Just thinking out loud really!
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Sea Pigeon had finished in front of BL the previous season off level weights. (Go back as far as you like)
 
rave154 said:
i can paste the Delphi code, if it would help ?
Click to expand...
I haven't used Delphi for at least 20 years but it might help, unless you can just say how you got to 30 %? I am keen to understand how your query was formed irrespective of what it was written in. For example what have you done with races where more than one horse share the same best LTO placing?
 
Yeah I understand that, but as guest said and Lee said was the biggest nudge given on a forum so obviously agreed, Sea Pigeon wasn't the great Sea Pigeon at that point and hadn't shown recent form.

Beacon light was Fav and had won his two recent races, dropping in class again and failed.

Surely this is the reason he was seen as a non form horse for the race on the day.
 
formtheory said:
Yeah I understand that, but as guest said and Lee said was the biggest nudge given on a forum so obviously agreed, Sea Pigeon wasn't the great Sea Pigeon at that point and hadn't shown recent form.

Beacon light was Fav and had won his two recent races, dropping in class again and failed.

Surely this is the reason he was seen as a non form horse for the race on the day.
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VDW never said that BL Was not a Form horse. He was one of the 3 probables, and was removed from the picture on 2 methods of rating.

To me it looks like @rave154 is trying to turn a method into a system

Like VDW said you can have all the ingredients but it does not mean that a good cake will be made
 
ArkRoyal ArkRoyal

basically, the total number of races studied, divided by the number of those races that were won by a runner that had
the credentials "Specified"(via delphi etc) .... for each race, look at each horse and find the best placing lto

then, in that race, if the winner of that race had THAT placing lto ( ie had the best placing lto , bare in mind there
could be multiple horses with the same best placing lto ).....then that race is marks as a "win"

tot up those "wins".....divde by the total number of races....... = 30% ( give or take a % point or so)
 
@rave154 how many races have you included and how does the outcome change if you ignore races with more than one horse with lowest placing LTO?
 
I'm not too fussed by it all anymore but have enjoyed chatting and looking at the old form figures etc....

As you say Chesham Chesham I don't believe it can be put into a system but maybe there are "rules" that can be spotted that VDW thought were logical.

From pat power :


As I said in an earlier post, I think the reason why Celtic Pleasure's last run was good enough is to be found in the circumstances of that race rather than reference back to the previous time the two horses met.

Some aspects of VDW's approach have, not unreasonably, been criticised as simplistic. And in a way consistency (adding up placings) and ability (dividing win prize money by races won) are. But my research suggests that VDW's approach to assessing form was both consistent enough to be described as "rules" but also effective at differentiating situations. I would respectfully suggest that the winners of Beacon Light and Celtic Pleasure's last races had very different characteristics, which explains why different conclusions were reached.
 
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