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Boxing Day Six 86.

rave154

Filly
ahh...... @Nellsman,

now i see the form !!


very vewry thanks !! ( my browser hadnt scrolled down, an di thought i was down at the end of the page when i wasnt ! )

cheers again.

David.
 

rave154

Filly
@rave154,
attached is the form you're looking for.
@Nellsman

just looking at the raceform pages,

wow, this is like being "back there" !!!

oh, just to mention an odd "synchronicity" ( or whatever they are called )

MY father gently introduced me to racing in the hope that my intellect & computer skills ( there were barely computers back then )
might hold promise of him/us makign a profit from his racing bets.

i told him something like " theres not enough data in the daily paper, i need more data to work on"
he replied with...."there used to be or is..a paper, comes out each week called raceform weekly or something like that.."

i asked the newsagent about it, sure enough he said its called raceform update, comes out each thursday (tomorrow) .

so, the next day....april 13th 1985 ( I think !! )

inside that edition....just happened to be....the centre full page spread of the reprint of "Vdw spells it all out"

i'll be brief and say...... i was HOOKED !.....i could just tell ( even though i knew almost nothing about racing ) that there
was "something" about this man/method/idea........just......something

anyways, time for a cuppa and ill start studying

thanks again Nellsman !!

p.s

i am currently also, writing the software to update my database from 1988-2012......up to 1988- the current day ( and onwards )

due to people in here telling me how much racing has changed since then, so i thought i would do it.

got a lot of changes to make to my hand written multi-threaded downloader, parsing software, database insertion software

i'll get there !!
 
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rave154

Filly
@rave154,
attached is the form you're looking for.
@Nellsman,

I have looked at each race, and ALL of them pass my rule for "form horse"

but.....1 last little request, can you scan the next page over from race 1161 for Yabis, the bottom half of that race is printed on the next page

( hope that makes sense )

cheers,

David.
 

hedgehog

Mare
@rave154, I struggle to read PDFs on my old tablet but if yabis was a lto favourite you have to make allowances for a poor run. The public don't make a horse favourite for nothing

Good luck tomorrow
 
VDW said that you will find the form horses at the front of the market.

Looking at the above you can see the odds must be a big part.
 

rave154

Filly
VDW said that you will find the form horses at the front of the market.

Looking at the above you can see the odds must be a big part.
@formtheory

I agree, my rule was... Lto horse must have finished equal to or better than its price ranking, ie if 4th fav then must have 4th or better, alas yabis was fav but finished 3rd.....grrrrr
 

rave154

Filly
@rave154, I struggle to read PDFs on my old tablet but if yabis was a lto favourite you have to make allowances for a poor run. The public don't make a horse favourite for nothing

Good luck tomorrow
@hedgehog

I agree hedge, my logic was trying to balance actual performance against expected performance, works for the first five kempton winners but alas not for yabis
 
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Chesham

Sire
You are always going to have problems @rave154 if you are trying to turn VDW into a System when it was always clearly stated that it was a method and not a System with Rules .
 

hedgehog

Mare
For a while I also looked at sp ranking but then tried decimal odds of winner/decimal odds of runner which gives a good estimate of the field the runner should have beaten.

So a 5/1 runner with a 2/1 favourite should beat (5+1)/(2+1) or 50% of the field. If there are 10 runners that's 5 its got to beat or its got to finish at least 5th.

I don't use that any more as it overestimated favourites chances but it's a good starting point
 

hedgehog

Mare
Over the last few months I've made allowances for favourites so were I'd have considered that close before and looked at the previous race I would now accept that as a form run.

Thanks @Nellsman for that information

Good luck tomorrow
 

Thomas

Filly
Rave you make some good points, in reference to market/finishing positions.

Lee posted somewhere that Captain Gerrard was a good bet at Ascot October 2007. I would love to know if he thought he was a good bet in his previous race at Ayr 21st September which he won as favourite.

In his race previous to winning at Ayr, CG finished 4th as 2nd favourite, Doncaster 14th September.

Chesham is also correct, it is a METHOD,if you try to make it a system you are in trouble.
 

rave154

Filly
@hedgehog
@Nellsman
@Thomas

Good replies guys, hedge i will run through those ideas you mentioned in my database, also can you remember the ideas i was going to do for you back in march or april ish?

Speaking of my DB, i am currently rewriting all the multi-threaded downloader, parsing, and insertion software to bring DB from 1988 to the current day..... Things have changed a bit in the html of the racing post pages!!
 

rave154

Filly
To be honest @rave154 , I can't remember. Thanks for asking but I think you have a mammoth job with the HTML. Thanks again

Good luck tomorrow
@ hedgehog

while my code is compiling, i will revist the 2 or 3 threads that were going on at the time, i should be able to piece it together

regards,

David.
 

rave154

Filly
Morning everyone,

re:- form horses on boxing day, vdw also said that the 18 races at the 3 minor meetings,
Market Rasen, Huntingdon and Sedgefield resulted in 14 going to form horses.

therefore 4 races were won by "non-form horses"

does any body have any ideas which 4 races these were?

Regards,

David.
 
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