I was wondering whether Dane O'Neill will have a good day at Doncaster?
Any thoughts R rbtblb82 ?
Any thoughts R rbtblb82 ?
Big Odds Winners
- Thread starter rbtblb82
- Start date
OnTheNod
Mare
Seems like a good system their simple is sometimes best.
Thanks for the reply,
R
rbtblb82 .
I was wondering whether you had your list of jockeys and would only back them at 10/1 or greater?
And are these EW bets every time?
I was wondering whether you had your list of jockeys and would only back them at 10/1 or greater?
And are these EW bets every time?
I've just been watching Doncaster and not betting, as my bets today were at Sandown (abandoned).
And, I can't offer any big-priced winners, but,
I'm intrigued by the next little race (4pm). Initially, I felt Muscutt on the Sea the Stars would take this race.
It interests me as the favourites are flop-flopping.
NO bet for me.
And, I can't offer any big-priced winners, but,
I'm intrigued by the next little race (4pm). Initially, I felt Muscutt on the Sea the Stars would take this race.
It interests me as the favourites are flop-flopping.
NO bet for me.
Chesham
Sire
Hi S SandhogWas the 3.25 Doncaster, a classic case of doing whatChesham suggested in his quoted e-mail above?
It certainly looked like it to me.
The top four in the betting, and the fav drifted out ( on btfr) to just under 2/1.
If so,very well done!
You can find out about how to work out price disparity and a free Price Disparity tool https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/well-done-ianwelch.125621/post-503561
There are two links on the page to forum posts that will explain all. The posts re on the Inner Sanctum, which you have access too
dave58
Administrator
Don't believe you !!!
I would tell you the name but it was 1991 and my memory isn’t what it was
dave58
Administrator
Another way to useARAZI91 suggestion about looking at the trainer is to look at trainer/jockey combinations.
I've got one system that I can only describe as nepotism in action - sometimes you can see patterns where a trainer uses a certain jockey under certain conditions
Just to lighten the thread up.
There's one of these tomorrow in Ireland (already posted elsewhere on the forum ) - currently at 25/1.
There's no way that I am going to tell you it's a dead cert, but I don't know about anyone else but a 30%+ strike rate and a decent roi is enough for me to get involved.
Check out the stats for yourselves .
dave58
Administrator
I'm not sure that I remember 1991 !
And, just so any casual reader of the thread doesn't get confused, I think I should point out that my conclusion in post #29 above was incorrect.
Whether or not it amounted to the same thing, I'm not sure, as I didn't do the necessary calculations involved.
The correct method is alluded to in post #33 by
Chesham above.
Anyway, after Doncaster, it certainly appears to me that short-priced winners and big-priced winners can occur in racing.
Basing a theory on a few personally -collected results is probably not a good idea.
However, as always in racing analysis, we had quite an explosive retort on a completely different thread from a well-respected poster ( not on this thread), when somebody suggested a requirement for ten years -worth of data.
The quest continues.
Whether or not it amounted to the same thing, I'm not sure, as I didn't do the necessary calculations involved.
The correct method is alluded to in post #33 by
Chesham above.Anyway, after Doncaster, it certainly appears to me that short-priced winners and big-priced winners can occur in racing.
Basing a theory on a few personally -collected results is probably not a good idea.
However, as always in racing analysis, we had quite an explosive retort on a completely different thread from a well-respected poster ( not on this thread), when somebody suggested a requirement for ten years -worth of data.
The quest continues.
mick
Sire
One of the tricks in racing is to take what appears to be a negative and find reasons to negate it, and on rarer occasions even end up concluding that it could actually be seen as a positive. It is this type of thinking which enables finding and backing a 12/1 chance with some confidence as opposed to hope. You do not need to be a self professed form book guru with a shed full of assumed holy grails, but rather someone who is willing to bet to a minority view when he has found racing reasons to justify.
The poncy name for the above is contrarian thinking but whatever it is a good mind set to have providing you use it in the right ways, because disagreeing with the majority market view without the reasons and evidence to support would prove ruinous. The front of the market has proven long term accuracy so it is a big dragon to bet against, but its also worth keeping in mind that this is the area where the majority of punters play, and said majority will lose money on balance.
Whether we like it or not this game involves constant learning and i have found some of the best lessons are those which have cost us money, this thread went astray down to some after timing which eventually starts to piddle people off but there is a positive version of same when we after time our losers and seek reasons for same. A less popular posting topic which is understandable but certainly one worth considering. ?
The poncy name for the above is contrarian thinking but whatever it is a good mind set to have providing you use it in the right ways, because disagreeing with the majority market view without the reasons and evidence to support would prove ruinous. The front of the market has proven long term accuracy so it is a big dragon to bet against, but its also worth keeping in mind that this is the area where the majority of punters play, and said majority will lose money on balance.
Whether we like it or not this game involves constant learning and i have found some of the best lessons are those which have cost us money, this thread went astray down to some after timing which eventually starts to piddle people off but there is a positive version of same when we after time our losers and seek reasons for same. A less popular posting topic which is understandable but certainly one worth considering. ?
Yes,
mick,
as far as I'm concerned , we learn more from our mistakes than from our successes.
As for what happened earlier, I believe we saw something that is widespread among those who bet on horses: folks wanting to show how good they are, by telling us all about their winners.
I've had this since I was a nipper; the really galling bit is " I told ya that will win, didn't I?"
Mind you, sometimes they were right.
Usually, when my own bet had just gone down the pan.
All in the game, I guess.
Btw, such excitement is not class restricted.
I boarded a crowded train after the Hennessey meeting at Newbury.
Squeezing into a seat by two chaps from the north of Ireland. The main chap had just backed his wife's winning horse at 4/5 sp.
And, boy, did I hear about it: my kinda price; £500 on it; couldn't lose, etc.
Thanks be to fk , I was getting off at Reading. I escaped into the throng on the platform, with my head and ears still ringing and reeling from the man's tale of great success.
A search in my pocket for the train ticket reminded me that my own pocket was devoid of cash, of course.
mick,as far as I'm concerned , we learn more from our mistakes than from our successes.
As for what happened earlier, I believe we saw something that is widespread among those who bet on horses: folks wanting to show how good they are, by telling us all about their winners.
I've had this since I was a nipper; the really galling bit is " I told ya that will win, didn't I?"
Mind you, sometimes they were right.
Usually, when my own bet had just gone down the pan.
All in the game, I guess.
Btw, such excitement is not class restricted.
I boarded a crowded train after the Hennessey meeting at Newbury.
Squeezing into a seat by two chaps from the north of Ireland. The main chap had just backed his wife's winning horse at 4/5 sp.
And, boy, did I hear about it: my kinda price; £500 on it; couldn't lose, etc.
Thanks be to fk , I was getting off at Reading. I escaped into the throng on the platform, with my head and ears still ringing and reeling from the man's tale of great success.
A search in my pocket for the train ticket reminded me that my own pocket was devoid of cash, of course.
mick
Sire
Fair dues you have me bang to rights but when i started after timing as @mickinamuddle i was on a LR 30 and my claimed 33/1 winner was a desperate needs must job.
I have no idea about forum members , but, by the same token, I don't believe I ever know if a person is well-to-to-do or not.
I've seen scruffy old lads at Ludlow who could probably put the lot of us in their back pocket, while, at Wolverhampton, some of the smooth operators, wearing all the latest posh gear, turned out to owe thousands, despite the Beamer or Merc.
You never can tell, imo.
What I will say, however, is that there used to be some right chancers at Ascot, in those days before I got my red card.
I've seen scruffy old lads at Ludlow who could probably put the lot of us in their back pocket, while, at Wolverhampton, some of the smooth operators, wearing all the latest posh gear, turned out to owe thousands, despite the Beamer or Merc.
You never can tell, imo.
What I will say, however, is that there used to be some right chancers at Ascot, in those days before I got my red card.