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Betting Evolution

Sigster

Sigster

Gelding
So in the past most of us have been THAT mug pointer. From random selections in two minutes to big accas , from paying tipsters to betting on “sure things”. But what seperates most of us from the majority , whether we are successful or not, is the will to try and do better, to try and build our own way by expanding our knowledge, sharing ideas and trying to understand the logic (or lack of) behind the numbers whether it be form or data based analysis. There is no short cut and I would be seriously interested to know the average age of those who participate regularly in the forum as I suspect at nearing 50 Im probably still one of the younger members… :confused:

Ive had some time away from horses and betting in general but buoyed by a little early success , more by luck than judgement I would think, I’ve looked at all my systems, had a little think about the thought processes behind each one, where the idea generated, why , and what I could do with it going forward.

Its been very much an evolutionary process from my earliest days when it was just for fun. Look through the racecard in five minutes and pick something based on the comments that seemed worth a fiver…. Seems very backwards and very basic… :eek:. From there I started having a bit of fun in a three man syndicate where any winnings were accumulated to pay for a day at the races so it became very competitive and I started keeping paper records, but only on the All-Weather tracks as there were less of them and it was easier….:D. Then I discovered the Flatstats website and things started to get interesting as I discovered proper data based analysis which really enabled me to dig into the AW. From there the flat was a natural progression. At the same time I discovered flatstats I came across a betting forum which really highlighted to me what a muppet I was with my betting even though I thought I knew something..:obscene-buttred: My best systems were fairly generic at this point and were tied in heavily to the flatstats ratings which you could build into the system. THAT forum disappeared down the pan very rapidly and as many of you already know the mods quickly set this one up and invited people along. This would more or less be around the time HRB started to build a following and a lot of people including myself migrated to HRB although for myself it meant going back to basics with my systems as anything linked to the flatstats ratings was lost.

My systems have taken on many guises since then but everyday is a school day and probably the one thing I wish I had known when I started is KISS… Keep It Simple Stupid. I do feel over the years I’ve over complicated things and driven up too many metaphorical cul-de-sacs. Sure I’ve had my successes but there is an element of wondering whether it was luck or judgement, after all if you close your eyes and throw one hundred darts at the wall, some WILL hit the dartboard…🤷‍♂️

So where am I in the evolutionary betting tree currently? Well I’m definitely nearer the end than the beginning with the knowledge I’ve garnered but then I’m guessing there are a lot of us that feel like that. Having gone back to basics with HRB I’m happy with where I am currently, and having focused on the AW I’m hoping the winter is going to be kind to me. And if it’s not? All part of the process, I’ll learn what I can, and evolve….

Many thanks to anyone who takes the time to read and respond to this drivel…..:newrussian: :D


Posted on the outer reaches of the forum on purpose.

Every day is a school day!
 
Sigster said:
So in the past most of us have been THAT mug pointer. From random selections in two minutes to big accas , from paying tipsters to betting on “sure things”. But what seperates most of us from the majority , whether we are successful or not, is the will to try and do better, to try and build our own way by expanding our knowledge, sharing ideas and trying to understand the logic (or lack of) behind the numbers whether it be form or data based analysis. There is no short cut and I would be seriously interested to know the average age of those who participate regularly in the forum as I suspect at nearing 50 Im probably still one of the younger members… :confused:

Ive had some time away from horses and betting in general but buoyed by a little early success , more by luck than judgement I would think, I’ve looked at all my systems, had a little think about the thought processes behind each one, where the idea generated, why , and what I could do with it going forward.

Its been very much an evolutionary process from my earliest days when it was just for fun. Look through the racecard in five minutes and pick something based on the comments that seemed worth a fiver…. Seems very backwards and very basic… :eek:. From there I started having a bit of fun in a three man syndicate where any winnings were accumulated to pay for a day at the races so it became very competitive and I started keeping paper records, but only on the All-Weather tracks as there were less of them and it was easier….:D. Then I discovered the Flatstats website and things started to get interesting as I discovered proper data based analysis which really enabled me to dig into the AW. From there the flat was a natural progression. At the same time I discovered flatstats I came across a betting forum which really highlighted to me what a muppet I was with my betting even though I thought I knew something..:obscene-buttred: My best systems were fairly generic at this point and were tied in heavily to the flatstats ratings which you could build into the system. THAT forum disappeared down the pan very rapidly and as many of you already know the mods quickly set this one up and invited people along. This would more or less be around the time HRB started to build a following and a lot of people including myself migrated to HRB although for myself it meant going back to basics with my systems as anything linked to the flatstats ratings was lost.

My systems have taken on many guises since then but everyday is a school day and probably the one thing I wish I had known when I started is KISS… Keep It Simple Stupid. I do feel over the years I’ve over complicated things and driven up too many metaphorical cul-de-sacs. Sure I’ve had my successes but there is an element of wondering whether it was luck or judgement, after all if you close your eyes and throw one hundred darts at the wall, some WILL hit the dartboard…🤷‍♂️

So where am I in the evolutionary betting tree currently? Well I’m definitely nearer the end than the beginning with the knowledge I’ve garnered but then I’m guessing there are a lot of us that feel like that. Having gone back to basics with HRB I’m happy with where I am currently, and having focused on the AW I’m hoping the winter is going to be kind to me. And if it’s not? All part of the process, I’ll learn what I can, and evolve….

Many thanks to anyone who takes the time to read and respond to this drivel…..:newrussian: :D


Posted on the outer reaches of the forum on purpose.

Every day is a school day!
Click to expand...
KISS the idea is great and there is lots of misleading data about and loads of stats that basically repeat another stat , human nature for the thinkers to try and use everything available and most punters try to include far to much - so yes KISS is for me : Now that is after years of over stuffing the ratings with pointless or at best conflicting / nullifying stats , but if you dont try you never know
 
mick said:
Sigster Sigster your above is an honest and enjoyable read. Regretfully i cannot buy into the KISS principle, but well done those who have and do. :)
Click to expand...
For me mick mick its not necessarily a literal interpretation but a nudge not to over complicate things. There’s been times when I think I’ve found something and rather than monitoring and seeing what it looks like I’ve gone in with extra filters early doors to clean it up a bit and kind of forgetting the original thought process. Over filtering if you like. As a systemite it’s probably the first principle I should stick to. Little bit trickier i guess once you start getting into methods and form reading as by their very nature it can get complicated especially when you start looking back at previous runs/ratings/head to heads etc….
 
I have to admit that I'm the complete opposite to mick mick in that some of my systems are ridiculously simple.
I tend to be a bit of a magpie in that sometimes someone here might make a throwaway remark that leads me into imagining a 'story' if you like as to why a particular horse has won a particular race, or why the trainer is doing what he is.
I then take it away and think about it, and only once I have the complete idea in my mind will I actually look at historical results - that way I am happy that I'm not backfitting by adding filters just to make the figures look better.
I don't achieve a particuarly marvelous strike rate or profit , but as long as the idea roughly hits 30 percent on both then I'm quite happy with that.
I guess it's just a matter of finding something that works for you personally.
 
I’m afraid racing is something that the more time you can spend the better you become at it, when we had lockdown I’m sure I became an expert🤣 only downfall was there was no racing, but I did with others help manage to develop a couple of decent HRB systems. I have found my systems with 5 or less rules are more successful than my more complicated ones so I’m in agreement with Sigster Sigster about KISS
 
I just stumbled upon this forum and I have to say, it's great to see a community of like-minded individuals who are passionate about betting and evolving their strategies. I can totally relate to being that "mug pointer" in the past, making random selections and relying on so-called "sure things." It's all part of the learning process, right?
 
I've been away from horses and betting for a while, but I'm back now and excited to dive back in. I've had a bit of early success, but I know it's mostly luck at this point. It's definitely been an evolutionary journey for me. I started off just picking horses based on comments and having fun with it. But now I'm realizing the importance of expanding my knowledge, analyzing form and data, and understanding the logic behind the numbers.
 
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