AW Probables

[martin_85]

My current selection method on the AW is quite time consuming and whilst it is getting me in 'the ballpark', my final selection process is proving wayward right now. Whilst I attempt to fine tune this, I am going to have a look at a system of narrowing down 'the probables' by looking for common horses from three different sets of criteria:

• Form
• Consistency
• Speed

My methods of assessing these three criteria are likely to be different to those used by others but hopefully they will prove fruitful. A high proportion of winners appear in the top 5 of the betting forecast and this will be a part of narrowing the common horses. Hopefully pace analysis will also prove a part once I get to grips with it.

Onto today at Lingfield:

12:50
Form - Fire Diamond, Bridge Builder, Chelwood Gate, Black Caesar, Saleh
Consistency - Fire Diamond, Bridge Builder, Chelwood Gate, Black Caesar, Saleh
Speed - Fire Diamond, Bridge Builder, Bookmaker

Common horses are Fire Diamond and Bridge Builder, with both appearing in the top 5 of the betting forecast.

1:25
Form - Northern Meeting, Miss Tiger Lily
Consistency - Byron Flyer, River Dart, Saborido, Miss Tiger Lily
Speed - Pivotal Flame, River Dart, Saborido, Saint Honore

No horse appears in all three.

2:00
Form - All bar Boom The Groom and Rivellino appear here
Consistency - Gracious John, Justice Good, Amazour
Speed - Gracious John, Justice Good, Lancelot Du Lac

Gracious John and Justice Good appear in the top5 of the forecast but both are outsiders.

2:30
Form - Verne Castle, Vimy Ridge, Taajub, Fly True, Mossgo
Consistency - Verne Castle, Vimy Ridge, Taajub, Fly True
Speed - Vimy Ridge, Burning Thread, Vimy Ridge, Fly True

Common horses are Verne Castle, Vimy Ridge and Fly True, with VC and FT appearing in the forecast.

3:05
Form - All bar Decorated Knight
Consistency - Arab Spring, Decorated Knight, Battalion, Grendisar
Speed - Grendisar, Mythical Madness

Common horse Grendisar and in forecast.

3:40
Form - Hamish McGonagain, Aragon Knight, Dreams of Glory, Head Space
Consistency - Rockley Point, Varsovian, Hamish, Aragon Knight, Dreams Of Glory, Head Space
Speed - Rockley Point, Varsovian, Hamish, Dreams of Glory, Head Space

Common horses are Hamish, Dreams of Glory and Head Space. All appear in forecast.

4:15
Form - Darebin, Treble Strike, Casbalance
Consistency - Darebin, Remember The Man, Appy Days, Casablanca
Speed - Remember The Man, Casablanca

Common horse is Casablanca and in forecast.


Apologies for the long post, I will refine it to just common horses going forward but wanted to show the methodology. I will not be betting any of these, just looking at how I can refine the system for now.

 

[martin_85]

Only one common horse as a winner today in the form of Verne Castle (SP 9/4).

Results (winner appearing in any of the 3 criteria):
12:50 -
1:25 - C
2:00 - S
2:30 - F/C/S
3:05 - C
3:40 - C/S
4:15 - C

5 out of the 7 races were won by 'consistent' horses. All 5 appeared in the top5 in the betting forecast (though a couple of races didn't have many more than 5 runners).

I have done the same for Newcastle this evening and will post results later tonight.

 

[NigelRG]

Good luck with the A/W martin_85

Nige

 

[martin_85]

Thanks NigelRG

Results for Newcastle:

5:45 - F/C
6:15 - F/C/S
6:45 - F/C/S
7:15 -
7:45 - C
8:15 -
8:45 - F/C

Two common horses won at 9/4 and 11/2, both in the forecast. The 7:15 was a Maiden and the 8:15 appeared last on all ratings!

I think there were a few horses that stood out on these ratings yesterday, whether I would have actually picked them or gone with something else, I don't know. I certainly don't want to start after-timing but this seems like it might have some legs, so will see how we go.

 

[martin_85]

For tomorrow at Wolves:

2:20 - Russian Soul and Captain Dion
2:50 -
3:20 -
3:50 - Socialites Red and Kyllach Me
4:20 - Cruise Tothelimit and Indian Pursuit
4:50 - Come Back King
5:20 - Secret Bird
5:50 -

 

[martin_85]

Results of the common horses:

2:20 - 2nd and 3rd
3:50 - UP and 2nd
4:20 - UP and 2nd
4:50 - UP
5:20 - UP

A few close but no cigar.