I've been getting my figures fine tuned and at a stage where I'm as happy with them as its possible to now be, there's still scope to modify and amend, but I now have a base of neary 100,000 runs rated since 2018 and can call on other ratings pre that date if necessary. Its time to start using the ratings to help inform a race.
The attached is an example of a race from 22 May at Wolverhampton. To explain it a bit, each horse is given a suggested "master" rating, with greater weight given to how recent the race was. This is under each horse's name, and a weight adjusted version is provided underneath with the race summary at the top of the sheet. At present it does not add weight to performances at a track and distance, which could be something for the future. The figures below will probably come over as somewhat selective, but its an example.
Just because a horse comes out top rated doesn't mean it wins - the idea is to take the top rated and see if it is credible based on today's conditions and opposition. Under each horse, the sheet automatically highlights races at the same track and anything within 15% either side of today's distance is also highlighted. I haven't picked the 15% for any reason, its just a gut feeling.
GA was my own calculated going allowance for that day, GA1 is usually a minus figure but the nearer to 0, the more likely the performance is a true reflection of its ability, GA2 is a plus figure and the bigger that figure, the more it may be capable of (this figure is added to the final column).
Where the speed column is highlighted in yellow, its in the best 20% of all performances in the sheet, so if recent runs are highlighted it can quickly be noted of interest. Where the RTG column is highlighted its because there is a difference between its speed rating and a suggestion of its possible capability. So Raabeh's run in November scored a 42, but could been seen as good enough to rate at 52, in other words its possible that it has figured in a falsely run race because the going allowance doesn't really explain the poor figure.
On this occasion, the favourite was Mo Henry but on my various figures there's nothing special to report, but its easy to note that he's been running over 7/8 furlongs and is being dropped in trip today. Someone somewhere presumably thought that would be the key to him and he was backed into an SP of 11/4.
Hard Solution is some way clear on LTO figures, and in his previous is a 70 over CD, the argument against is he's coming off something of a break and may be in need of the run. The truth for today could have been seen as somewhere between his master rating and his last run, but he has to at least enter considerations at 11/1 for a repeat of that 70.
Captain Ryan has performed steadily and consistently in three runs over CD, and on my algorithm has come top overall, and also has the second best LTO performance. Its becomes apparent that there are a few of these who are a bit out of form so at 16/1 you could argue he's worth a flyer.
Raabeh was second on the weight adjusted list as well. So there are probably lots of ways of using these figures. I've only done this one date so far though. I'm posting the other races for complete transparency, not the 1330 or 1500 as there was so little form to report.
In the 1400 Beat The Breeze had the best last time out figure and returned at 15/2. Top rated also won the final race as well. I just need to grab two or three weeks of results to bring the ratings up to date then we can maybe begin to start using these.