• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Aintree Grand National 2023 ratings

AustinDillon75

AustinDillon75

Colt
I have been messing about a bit with ratings and having got some inspiration from a suggestion over ELO by The Hare The Hare, I've decided to try it with Jumps racing here and it is looking like producing a lot of potentially good outcomes.

If you know ELO the basic premise is that the better the horse does the higher it will rate but as it climbs higher so do expectations and it is increasingly more difficult for a horse to advance its rating if it is pitched up against poor opposition. Equally the assumption for every debutant is a starting rating and this will move up or down depending on opposition - the more races are run the more the collateral form builds, and we complete the rating by re-rating all races starting with the horse's debut run figure reflecting its current ability before adjusting race by race. We do not factor in class whatsoever - that all takes care of itself.

So here are the ratings for the Grand National, the weight it will carry in the race is in the middle column and it tells you Our Power is 9lb well in. He has had two very good wins over Hcap chases this season and maybe more to come (55 so need some to pull out). Corach Rambler and Ashtown Lad have also win significant handicaps this season, the latter also needs a few to scratch as well. My rating has Conflated as the best horse in the race and the handicapper thinks so too. I'm interested in Fury Road. Anyway we'll see how these ratings work out in time, hope they might prove useful.

If time allows I will try and post some ratings for other races through the week.


1680649350705.png

To place this into context, my current top horses post-Cheltenham are these:

2 mile Hurdles - Constitution Hill 181.01
3 mile Hurdles - Teahupoo 162.73 (note both Champ and Paisley Park both rated higher after the December Grade 1)
2 mile Chase - Energumene 176.95
3 mile Chase - Galopin Des Champs 174.09
 
Our Power is 41 on the list and should get a run
Ashtown Lad no longer in the race it seems
Corach Rambler 10lb and Our Power 6lb well in because they won after the weights were set
no surprise you have these high on the list
Gaillard Du mesnil stood out for me when the weights were set, since won at Cheltenham which should be a positive but instead I was left feeling his jumping and tactical speed was sub par for the Grand National, he is a powerful stayer though off a very fair mark, just not sure type for Aintree
Another horse been catching my eye over the years is Vanillier I see he is quite high up your ratings, just something about the horse, keeps popping back in my head when I look at the race.
 
I'm surprised about Vanillier, I used to follow it myself but I don't like that horse now, it only ever ran well for me once and has been disappointing since, but it did look like it was going to be a good horse at one point.

I think we might have to use stats this year, or just punt it, not much stands out, and I don't think many of these will stay well over 4 miles, except Gaillard Du Mesnil, Conflated, Hewick and Noble Yeats (maybe Quickwave, and possibly Back On The Lash & Franco Du Port).

Envoi Allen isn't a stayer, mostly been over 2m, only been over 3m twice and never further, I can't see horses like that staying over Aintree fences, and most of the field is made up of horses like that. I think over half the field will pull up (I know they often do, but definitely this year - I think less than 10 horses will finish the race again this year).

I do love Francky Du Berlais, one of my all time favourite horses, and must be the horse that's won for me the most times at big odds, just can't see him making it round this far carrying that much, but I'd love it if he did.

Since Hewick won the US national for me, I'm sticking with Hewick, he was looking quite good in the Gold Cup until he fell. I'll also be having Noble Yeats to emulate Tiger Roll and Red Rum and win it back-to-back.

I'm looking forward to it, I wish it was this weekend with the bank holiday - good luck to all with your Grand National bets.
 
Thanks for feedback and as the posts above highlight the rating is a starting point, we have to look beyond it for running style, jumping ability and stamina.

I don't say Envoi Allen is a likely winner, but sometimes horses more familiar with shorter can surprise. I always think horses with decent cruising speed can often have surprising stamina and can run the legs off other horses who can't keep with what's usually a pretty frenetic pace. The ones who are known to "stay longer than the mother in law" can get round, but seldom have the speed or class required, in my opinion. Walk in the Mill would be a recent example.

Our Power was definitely no 55 on the Racing Post yesterday but I guess a guaranteed run could see him in the first few in the betting come race day.

I have ratings for the race over the last couple of years, which I've not looked at, but I can see how those did as well and will share when I get a moment.
 
Thanks AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 .

Finally motivated me to do these NH ratings that I had promised for a while. These are using ELO and I was surprised how much the spreadsheet could handle and still produce quick ratings. I have 2 years results in the sheet for all UK and Ireland racing. Have not discriminated between NHF, Hurdle and Chase. The method I use for HK would take a lot more time but these have only taken 3 or 4 days. They include weight but I have no record of performance. These are the top 20 rated going into Cheltenham so I can see how they perform there before updating later.

The ELO only produces the latest rating but there are little changes for the leaders from race to race.

I do not include any non finishers or any horses beaten over 30 pounds in distance terms as per my HK method. As mentioned to me this affects those that fall at the last, Galopin Des Champs at Cheltenham 2022. Also as no record of non finishers this can include efforts from the past for horses that are no longer capable of repeating.

When I check performance at Cheltenham will get back.

1681301109552.png
 
So an update, I rated all the Cheltenham races using the 1 rating. These are the results from 28 races. The ratings were much the best for hurdles, maybe I would do better splitting the ratings for the 2 types as they are different disciplines.

Results are calculated using 0.78 points for a pound of weight. I ran regression for all the handicaps using weight carried and rating and the values were as below. Around 0.78 is the average. It didn't really make a lot of difference in the results though.

The flattering results were Faivoir at 33/1 and 3rd top Stay Away Fay in the next race at 18/1. I will try later splitting the 2 types.

1681307832960.png

1681307651337.png
 
I had proposed to put some ratings up for today and apologies for delay I ended up losing a lot of time so printed them and am now sat in Wetherspoons Ormskirk photographing a print out on my way to the track.

The ELO is the horses current rating on my own self developed chart and elo-z converts each to a zscore. The pure Z Score is taken from HRB figures and I have adapted my own rating stored in there to create it. Z-Total then weighs these completely independent ratings and puts horses in rank order.

All that work amd I should just have gone and taken the favourites lol...then again if your ratings aren't far out from the market and completely independent of it then who knows.

I am taking both Perseus Way amd Sharjah ew at a price today and my other likely bets are Late Night Pass, Third Time Lucki and Dysart Enos. Small stakes as always on track

I just wanted to get something posted. I will try and get something on tomorrow morning for Fridays races too and it will probably be a bit more, erm, bespoke.
 

Attachments

  • 20230413_100018.jpg
    20230413_100018.jpg
    2.1 MB · Views: 20
The Hare said:
When I check performance at Cheltenham will get back.
Click to expand...
These are my 2023 Cheltenham figures.

docs.google.com

CHELTENHAM 2023.xlsx

Sheet1 RaceTime,Meeting,Date,Class,Place,Age,Distance,Going,Horse,Trainer,Jockey,Weight Lbs,OR,SF,HANDICAP 3:30,Cheltenham,15-Mar-23,Class 1,1,9,1m7f199yds,Soft,Energumene,W P Mullins,Paul Townend,164,175,142,170 3:30,Cheltenham,14-Mar-23,Class 1,1,6,2m87yds,Soft,Constitution Hill,Nicky Henderso...
docs.google.com docs.google.com

Mike.
 
Complete cards for Thurs Aintree with all the stats, speed figures and ratings etc.

Mike.
 

Attachments

  • 5_15 Aintree _Compressed.pdf
    660.1 KB · Views: 13
  • 4_40 Aintree _Compressed.pdf
    647.3 KB · Views: 3
  • 4_05 Aintree _Compressed.pdf
    1,009.4 KB · Views: 1
  • 3_30 Aintree _Compressed.pdf
    381.8 KB · Views: 2
  • 2_55 Aintree_Compressed.pdf
    383.1 KB · Views: 2
  • 2_20 Aintree _Compressed.pdf
    490.4 KB · Views: 2
  • 1_45 Aintree _Compressed.pdf
    360.3 KB · Views: 5
Awesome TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother. Will keep to hand for the afternoon. The 515 bumper not much to go off but Dysart Enos Ludlow run looks like the one and she's followed with a listed win. I know bumpers aren't for the fainthearted but definitely a couple of quid going in there later.
 
AustinDillon75 said:
Awesome @
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother. Will keep to hand for the afternoon.
Click to expand...
This was my ITV7 selections today using my figures.

ITV7.PNG

Mike.
 
The Hare The Hare nice work. Can I ask how you got Dysart Enos at 5 in the ranking when he looks like he should be second.

Either way its great when we see ratings and not only that, but ratings that appear grounded in sense and logic.
 
Morning all. Here you go with attached ratings for today - I've also done Sedgefield and Ballinrobe. If you just did yesterday's top rated blind you came away with 4 winners from 7 races and an SP profit of 6.13pts - see if your bank will give you an account that more or less doubles your money lol

We could obviously give all that back today...
 

Attachments

  • Jumps 14_04_23.pdf
    547.5 KB · Views: 15
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 I am encouraged that 11 of my new HRB rating's top rated concur with your top rated. These being:

Gerri Colombe; Fakir Doudairies; Parramount; Rambo T; Waspy; Fearless Action; Thatbeatsbanagher; Skyhill; Banntown Girl; Free Flowing and Made In The Woods.

From my point of view it gives mine some credence.
 
A little late but these are the first races. I adjusted my ratings after yesterday just amending the recency factor and removing 2nd placed horses that had been beaten over 30 pounds on ratings, I had included these so that there were 2 finishers where possible. But I ended up with the adjsutment giving me vastly inflated ratings for a horse like Easy Game. This looks much better.

After yesterday, Constitution Hill rating dropped, another problem I guess as he didn't exactly put everything in to winng the race.

1681478727546.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top