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Abilty rating

JennyK said:
In my view there is nothing worth remarking on in relation to the ability ratings for the two Thirsk sprints or indeed the 7.30 Ripon. I am taking them at face value for the purpose of identifying the three VDW class/form horses. I haven't kept records but I doubt I manually adjust an AR (as in my view misleading) in more than one race in ten, and to find two in the same race, as with Diligently and Indian Run, is very unusual (can't remember another instance).

For nearly all the time the ability rating can safely be taken at face value, for its purpose, ranking the field as a preliminary for the individual assessment of each horse's "form" status and whether any serious conditions issues apply.
Click to expand...
I ran the model on the 19.30 Rpn, JennyK JennyK

My shortlist, prior to running it were :
Glory Hyde
Bye Law
Beattie Is Back

Only Glory Hyde was picked up by the model, so had a small win bet on it, as I prefer a race where it traps more than one on the shortlist and I can then make a book from them.

Regards

Race Introduction​

This is a 6f Class 5 handicap at Ripon (19:30) on good ground, worth £6k, featuring a mix of in‑form sprinters, course specialists, and a couple of horses trying to translate all‑weather peaks back to turf.

Ripon’s 6f track is:
  • Straight, Undulating, with a slight, uphill climb
  • A place where course form and balance matter
  • A track that often rewards handy racers and horses who can sustain speed rather than produce a single burst
The field includes:
  • A thriving C&D winner still ahead of the handicapper (Glory Hyde)
  • A progressive AW winner attempting to transfer a new peak to turf (Beyond Borders)
  • A Ripon specialist who always outruns his mark here (Mark’s Choice)
  • A class‑dropping sprinter flagged as a Tactical Dropper (Blind Beggar)
  • Several exposed or inconsistent types whose TS/RPR profiles are weakening
The combined models narrow the race to a very tight cluster of realistic contenders, with one clear standout.

Combined Summary Table​

HorseForm Reader ViewL33 StatusTactical DropperOverall Today
Glory HydeStrongest recent ability; new peak over this C&D; ahead of OR; perfect conditionsBETNoMost likely winner
Beyond BordersNew peak last time; ahead of OR; improving; AW→turf questionFOLLOWNoMain danger if translating AW form
Mark’s ChoiceRipon specialist; consistent mid‑130s ability; slightly high markSTOP (exposed)NoPlace chance only via track bias
Bye LawSolid recent run; now at level; limited upsideSTOP (TS down)NoNeeds others to underperform
Beattie Is BackHigh AW peak; turf form poor; surface mismatchSTOP (TS falling)NoOpposable on turf
Blind BeggarClass dropper; old peak; inconsistent; but dropping from strong York raceSTOP (exposed)YES – Tactical DropperLive danger; do not oppose

Jockey Summary Table​

HorseJockeyClaimRead on the Booking
Glory HydeJoanna Mason0Knows the horse; has ridden all recent wins; continuity a major positive
Beyond BordersJason Hart0Strong northern rider; slight upgrade from last time
Mark’s ChoiceWilliam Pyle0Familiar with the horse; has won on him at Ripon
Bye LawSean Kirrane0Neutral booking; no new angle
Beattie Is BackJack Garritty0Back on board; best AW runs came under him
Blind BeggarRyan Kavanagh5Useful claim; offsets some exposure; relevant for Tactical Dropper status

Best Three​

1️⃣ Glory Hyde​

  • Form Reader:
    • New peak ability (148) over this exact C&D
    • Still ahead of handicapper
    • Strong upward trajectory
  • L33:
    • Clear BET (passes all steps)
    • TS rising, RPR rising, class/distance perfect
  • Overall:
    • The most complete profile in the race
    • No blockers; thriving; ideal setup
Verdict: The horse they all have to beat.

2️⃣ Beyond Borders — Main Danger​

  • Form Reader:
    • New ability peak last time
    • Well‑in
    • Improving sharply
  • L33:
    • FOLLOW (surface translation is the only blocker)
  • Overall:
    • If he brings his Wolverhampton figure to turf, he is the only horse with the raw numbers to challenge Glory Hyde.
Verdict: The danger horse; respect strongly.

3️⃣ Blind Beggar — Tactical Dropper​

  • Form Reader:
    • Old peak; inconsistent; exposed
  • L33:
    • STOP (fails exposure check)
  • Tactical Dropper:
    • YES — 2 flags triggered:
      • Prize Drop (13k → 6k)
      • Class Strength Drop (C4 → C5)
    • This makes him a live danger, even if not a bet
    • Horses with this profile often outrun their odds in weaker races
Verdict: Not a bet, but not a horse to lay or oppose.
 
Thanks B billybob

Not that it was part of my analysis but ironically it was 2nd top Ability Rated on UK and Irish past winning form. That’s why I thought JennyK JennyK might join in , but alas no . From a VDW Perspective it was an improved LTO Performance , Dropping in class and and dropped 2 lbs by the official handicapper

Last Win Median OR 82 and ran off 90
Today Median OR 79 and raced of 86

This was the notebook entry

Solar Aclaim (Forgiveness Upgrade)
Solar Aclaim suffered immediate early interference ("bumped start") which forced him to race off the pace. Making matters worse, he was drawn in stall 7 and had to come wide under the stand rail to find running room. Despite expending extra energy navigating the interference and track position, he still ran a respectable 94.48% FSP, making steady late headway. He is a prime candidate for a bounce-back win when he gets a clean break.
 
Last edited:
Good luck with the 7.30, Leodis Leodis.

For me it raises the question of margins of superiority, ability-wise, something the Kenlis example helps with, to an extent. As with the 4.02, the top two on class/form are close on the AR; I'm happier when the margin is much greater, as with the 3.25.

As it turned out, those who backed the top rated in the 4.02 (not including me) got away with it. A book on the top two, split by just 2 points, was in my view the percentage option. I think that may well be the case in the 7.30 where the margin, although greater than in the 4.02, is nevertheless small.
 
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