• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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    AR

Abilty rating

timetrackhorserace_nameracetypetoporOfficialRatingAbilityClassMoveIncIRErace_date
13:45:00ExeterAmerican Trio (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115056.26940000000000002026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterBelow The Belt (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle1150142.1077533333330002026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterConstellation Walk (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115111225.6762592476850-12026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterDrumlee Orders (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115056.578402026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterDutch Corner (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115115244.87387685185200-12026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterElusive PbOddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle1150202.5744692307690002026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterIm Wide AwakeOddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle1150168.049698095238002026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterInkamanOddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle1150123.264502026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterKarpenn (FR)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle11500.5628000000000000-22026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterMy Boy Aaron (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115110185.92740307692300-12026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterPlay On Court (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle1150176.7732287037040002026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterSouthfield FinaleOddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle1150200.5359550000000002026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterWozitworththewaitOddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115087.409812026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterHoney HazeOddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115088.52802026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterMrs Pen (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115047.962602026-03-17
13:45:00ExeterSignore Enzo (IRE)Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Maiden Hurdle115061.51894750000000012026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterThe Jam Man (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle100100219.66021846153800-12026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterLokis Mischief (FR)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle100100228.7756975-12026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterLooking For Larry (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle100100214.3827190476190002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterJurassic Pet (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle100100184.5066-12026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterTarbuckOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10096189.1622333333330002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterSpecial John (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10095275.8316086956520-22026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterLocal Derby (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10093231.987085714286002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterPops Folly (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10093174.6381057971010002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterSquare Du Roule (FR)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10091255.923598260870002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterShot Boii (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10091236.6449111111110002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterDessie HazeOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10090174.3491000000000002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterBredon Hill DartOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10089212.7671449275360002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterKlervia (FR)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10088182.1309857971010002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterBlue In The West (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10088214.7032365942030002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterWatchoutitscookie (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10080213.0082478260870002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterMoonlight ArtistOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10076204.5755214285710002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterI Love You Sivola (FR)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10074193.2662957142860002026-03-17
14:20:00ExeterElfrideOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle10074140.974595714286002026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterPyleigh MasterOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117117204.6582127536230-12026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterSon Of Hypnos (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117112225.1707638141030012026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterEton Mes (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117112251.2113362318840002026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterFirm But Fair (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117112219.721452592593002026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterAllstitchedupOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117110188.6590926923080002026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterAstronomic ViewOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117110200.2165095238100002026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterGeorge HenryOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117107150.9958082608700002026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterRi Na Cuirte (IRE)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117107216.1707991304350002026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterMadajovyOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117104240.8434033333330002026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterNoble Blue (FR)Oddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117101190.3687403703700012026-03-17
14:55:00ExeterSnapdanceOddschecker Handicap HurdleHandicap Hurdle117100250.9867740740740002026-03-17
 
Part of the whole HRB package you will have to check out the site for the current prices. Mine is a Lock In lifetime price

I’m not a big fan of the ability rating amd prefer to create my own ratings. If you notice all those who tried to use Ability Ratings on the forum have dropped out as they could not seem to do any good with that rating.

If I was you I would buy Dave Dave book as he has, his own thread shows how he he using the method outlined in his book on a forum thread. He doesn’t make ambiguous comments, like some do about a race and makes a definitive selection. You could learn a lot from him as he only makes pre race posts.
 
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The only feedback I can offer on ability ratings (VDW-esque), is to calculate it on a more short-term basis. ie: last 2 seasons, but then, the Hotform version, that takes into account the placings too, is better again in the short-term. Both can only be used as a guide alongside other data.
 
nagwa nagwa

I see an old favourite is scheduled to run on Friday, Aberama Gold, now a 9yo. The table below gives his ability rating after each win and I think shows that in article 45 of "The Golden Years ..." both VDW and Mr Chester were right in their own terms. (The second column is age, the third class of race won and the final one the ability rating after the win.)

In general the ability rating is a good guide, but on the Flat once it is clear that a horse's performances are regressive, the need is to find how to adjust. The first suggestion by DuckandDive DuckandDive has to my mind a great deal to commend it once it is clear beyond doubt that a horse's performances are regressing.

06/07/201924242
20/09/2019215699
12/10/20192284161
23/10/20203118150
19/11/20203123145
19/12/20203120141
06/10/2022562129
05/06/2023651120
14/06/2023666114
29/07/20236335136
05/08/202361288240
28/10/20236258242
12/07/20258129233
18/08/2025863221
28/08/20258180218
 
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Chesham said:
Part of the whole HRB package you will have to check out the site for the current prices. Mine is a Lock In lifetime price

I’m not a big fan of the ability rating amd prefer to create my own ratings. If you notice all those who tried to use Ability Ratings on the forum have dropped out as they could not seem to do any good with that rating.

If I was you I would buy Dave Dave book as he has, his own thread shows how he he using the method outlined in his book on a forum thread. He doesn’t make ambiguous comments, like some do about a race and makes a definitive selection. You could learn a lot from him as he only makes pre race posts.
Click to expand...
What is Dave book called, so I can buy a copy.
Thanks
 
DuckandDive DuckandDive's suggestion re possible modification of VDW's ability rating has much to commend it in respect of taking account of age-related regression, but maybe sometimes it is not perfect, any more than is mine, which is close to his.

Documenting, 4.55 Yarmouth, may provide an example. His ability rating is 101 on the basis VDW suggested (win prize money divided by number of wins). On DuckandDive's and mine, it would be either higher (135) or a touch lower (82). Whichever, the rating suggests that Documenting is the class horse in the field.

Of course he might win and prove that he is, in which case a respectful nod to the memory of VDW. But rarely, in this case I don't see either the basic VDW ability rating or my hopefully more nuanced adaptation of it, as something on which to rely.

My performance ratings suggest, unsurprisingly, that Documenting has been regressing for some years. That did not prevent him from winning twice in 2024, the more recent a race of class 82, with the average OR of the field race 83.9, off 86, on 26/12/24, aged all but 12. So maybe he can win a race of class 57, average OR 76.7 off 77 as a 13yo. Presumably he hasn't been kept in training without the hope that he will be able to manage another win. But I certainly won't be backing him to do so today, and hope not to find too many other "outliers", ability ratings-wise, in the coming months.
 
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JennyK said:
DuckandDive DuckandDive's suggestion re possible modification of VDW's ability rating has much to commend it in respect of taking account of age-related regression, but maybe sometimes it is not perfect, any more than is mine, which is close to his.

Documenting, 4.55 Yarmouth, may provide an example. His ability rating is 101 on the basis VDW suggested (win prize money divided by number of wins). On DuckandDive's and mine, it would be either higher (135) or a touch lower (82). Whichever, the rating suggests that Documenting is the class horse in the field.
Click to expand...

1776768766789.png

When it won the race (Dec 24) to achieve the 82 ability rating, @ 11 years old, (Class 3 AWR OR 86), it had dropped from a previous winning OR of 89. Previous winning OR's were 99 & 102. Logic suggests todays mark of 77 looks too high, so running it a couple of times on the AWR, down the field, and then enter it @ York or Thirsk in a Class 4, could be worthwhile. (Jack Mitchell booking)- (Good, Good-Firm).

It must still enjoy racing, so why not campaign it for one more year, one other reason maybe, is although the OR is dropping, the RPR and TS improved on the last run. If it can maintain those figures, it might nick one more race before retiring.
 
I agree, and I hope he does. Personally, I am glad to see older horses kept in training. As you say, Documenting presumably still enjoys racing (or at least gives no obvious sign he doesn't!) and is being well looked after, which isn't necessarily the case once a horse leaves the racing world.

it will surprise me if Documenting wins today, but not if come 31/12/26 we find he has managed a win at some point over the next eight or so months.
 
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother One area I'm looking at, using your RPR Conversion tables, is "awarding" an RPR achieved when assessing current form, cross refer with the relevant conversion table, then compare with todays OR.

eg: 4yo+ Hcap, RPR 142 then OR = 130. The actual OR might be 125, so 5lbs well in. I'd then add in the difference between in weight
(140 - XX) to produce the new OR & RPR.

1776772574621.png

--

4.55 Yarm would like this:

On current form, Documenting has 8lbs to find. Rogue Allegiance is up in class, but in fair form, so could be winning soon. Early days yet, as I'd need to bolt it into a rating sheet so other variables could be considered. When i say "awarding" an RPR, I decide on what it I think the figure in the form-line should be based on the runner's progressive or regressive profile.

Not part of the ability rating discussion, but could be a way of seeing how runners match up.

1776773218658.png
---

First 3 home in the mix. R.A. ran on for 3rd @ 25/1. Looks to be a fair starting point.

1776788553921.png
 
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DuckandDive DuckandDive

A way to bring it back to the ability rating would perhaps to compare TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's (87 today for Documenting), with VDW's (whether basic or adjusted along your lines), not of course comparing the two numbers directly but ranking the well-in or otherwise on Mike's table (+10 for this race) and the VDW ability rating ranking.

On that basis, Documenting would be top rated via a VDW approach and wherever he sits if one calculated the equivalent of Mike's +10 for all the runners. Today's, or any other single race result, wouldn't prove anything in itself, but if one seemed to do clearly better than the other across a large number of races ...

The problem with this sort of matter is that of course results do not turn solely on ability. Form and conditions need to be taken into account, at least if one works on VDW lines. I can't see an issue with Documenting on conditions with today's race, but he is not a VDW "form" horse. So I suppose any study would need four subtotals: the number of winners from the total (a) on the VDW ability rating and "form" horses, (b) on the VDW ability rating but not "form" horses, and the matching subtotals for Mike's rating.
 
According to the Life, Documenting finished a reasonable 7th, which at least is consistent with the view that his current VDW-based ability rating is not to be relied upon.

As noted earlier, that is fortunately rare, though, and the next three down the rating ranking (adjusted as discussed to deal with age-related regression) filled the first three places, though not in the perfect order from that perspective.
 
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