Abilty rating

[Chesham]

Posted earlier pre race

Mapping the Front End: The Sandown Marathon​

Over 24 fences at Sandown, the "Railway Fences" down the back straight come at you thick and fast. It is the ultimate jumping test. By cross-referencing the Timeform In-Running Pace Symbols (IPS) and the RaceIQ metrics, the pace map reveals a distinct advantage for the front end:

• The Alpha Dictator: Ask Brewster (IPS 1r, 1, 1jr) is the lone, verified front-runner. He won the grueling Kim Muir at Cheltenham by aggressively dictating the tempo and jumping his rivals into submission. Rock My Way(IPS 1j) may try to press him early, but his jumping can be highly erratic.
• The Prominent Trackers: Road To Home (IPS 2pj) and Montregard (IPS 3k) map to sit in the slipstream, stalking the pace.
• The Deep Closers: Havaila (IPS 5k, 4kj) and In D'or (IPS 3, 5k) will be anchored at the back of the pack. They will need the front-runners to collapse to bring their late speed into play.

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The Upgraded Master Matrix (Dutch & Single Focus)​

Here is the tactical master matrix for our 7-horse elite tier. Because this is a 3.5-mile marathon, the RaceIQ Lengths Gained Jumping is the ultimate lie detector. If you bleed lengths in the air at Sandown, you will not get home.

(Note: The CCRs are synthesized based on their established class ceilings and recent handicap performances, while the PR% reflects their exact placings in their last 3 runs).

Horse	Bowers	HRB CCR (Last 3)	PR% (Last 3)	TFR / Tfig	RaceIQ: Lengths Gained Jumping / FSP%	Full Timeform Comments & IPS (Most Recent First)
1 Resplendent Grey	13.0	141.0, 152.0, 138.5 (Elite class / Poor jumping)	0%, 100%, 0%	TFR:102, 151, 135 Tfig:100, -, 122	-8.55L, ?, ? (86.52% FSP)	IPS: 2, 3r, 5xs 1. lacklustre display in first-time blinkers... hampered 3 out, outpaced from there. 2. outpaced briefly 3 out before rallying to claim second. 3. reverted to looking sluggish... effort when blundered 3 out.
7 In D'or	22.0	135.0, 133.5, 126.0 (Consistent / Lacks elite gears)	100%, 100%, 0%	TFR:138, 131, 129 Tfig:92, 122, 74	+4.65L, +3.10L, +8.78L (Solid, efficient)	IPS: 3, 5k, 4 1. continued his good start for his new yard, though without suggesting he's anything other than averagely treated. 2. just in need of the run after 9 months off. 3. outpaced after 3 out, no impression after, plugged on.
4 Road To Home	22.5	136.5, 120.0, 131.0 (Elite tracker / Stayer)	100%, 0%, 100%	TFR:135, -, 133 Tfig:111, -, 131	+8.39L, +0.46L (PU), -0.59L (105.69% FSP)	IPS: 2pj, 3, 4ro 1. served up a career best in defeat; prominent, jumped fluently. 2. (Hurdles) found the test too much... pulled up. 3. keeping on when switched between last 2, finished well.
9 Havaila	23.5	134.0, 125.5, 106.0 (Unexposed closer / Jumping freak)	100%, 100%, 0%	TFR:130, 123, 106 Tfig:129, 113, 109	+15.21L, +18.83L, ? (99.17% FSP)	IPS: 5k, 4kj, 5p 1. basically having too much speed for his rivals on this sharp track, really thriving now. 2. impressing with how he completed the task... jumps well for one that started out on the Flat. 3. disappointed considering how he'd shaped on his return.
11 Montregard	24.33	132.0, 129.5, 118.0 (False Favourite / Massive OR deficit)	100%, 100%, 0%	TFR:131, 130, - Tfig:132, 84, -	+14.59L, +5.20L, -7.40L (104.32% FSP)	IPS: 3k, 3, 4 1. went one better than last time thanks to another improved display. 2. wasted no time getting back to form, running better than ever in fact. 3. shaped as if amiss and was reported to have an irregular heartbeat.
10 Ask Brewster	25.5	134.5, 124.0, 126.5 (Apex Dictator / Lethal jumper)	100%, 0%, 100%	TFR:132, 121, 125 Tfig:108, 91, 122	+17.43L, +8.70L, +17.20L (105.36% FSP)	IPS: 1r, 1, 1jr 1. proved most progressive... no sign of the jumping errors he made at Sandown this time... seen to maximum effect typically ridden from the front. 2. couldn't complete the 4-timer but ran creditably... led again 3 out, mistake next, headed, weakened. 3. progressing at a rate of knots and completed a hat-trick... driven clear.
3 Rock My Way	27.0	136.0, 133.0, 119.0 (Erratic jumper / Liability)	100%, 100%, 0%	TFR:136, 133, 119 Tfig:136, 124, 94	+1.64L, -16.92L, -13.37L (Bleeds massive ground)	IPS: 1j, 2x, 3x 1. couldn't be faulted at all in terms of jumping this time and ran a cracker from the front. 2. jumping to hold him back, this time due to waywardness over the obstacles... jumped left from there. 3. shaped as if still in good form and probably found some mistakes taking their toll.

Export to Sheets

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The Tactical Verdict: Single & Dutch Bets​

The RaceIQ Lengths Gained Jumping data completely destroys the top of this market. In a race with 24 fences, you must have elite mechanics.

The False Anchors:

• Montregard (10/3f): He is structurally toxic. Running off OR 132, he carries a massive 20lb deficit to the ceiling (Resplendent Grey). At 10/3 in a 14-runner marathon, the market has completely overreacted to his recent Ascot win.
• Resplendent Grey (12/1): The top weight has an elite engine but terrible mechanics. He lost -8.55L jumping last time out and his Finishing Speed plummeted to 86.52%. You cannot carry 12-0 over 3.5 miles while bleeding lengths at your fences.
• Rock My Way (12/1): An incredibly erratic jumper. He lost -16.92L and -13.37L in two of his last three starts. The Railway Fences will expose him.

The Elite Targets: This race sets up as a clash between the ultimate front-running jumper and the ultimate closing jumper.

Ask Brewster (15/2) is the apex dictator of the race. He gained an absurd +17.43L and +17.20L jumping in two of his last three wins. Timeform explicitly notes he is "seen to maximum effect typically ridden from the front." If he gets loose on the lead and attacks his fences, he will stretch the poor jumpers to breaking point before they even turn for home. He is a phenomenal standalone target.

Havaila (11/2) is the high-volatility closer. He is relatively unexposed over fences, but his RaceIQ metrics are terrifying: +15.21L and +18.83L gained jumping in his last two wins. He is a deep closer who relies on his electric jumping to glide through the field.

The Dutch Book Construction: Ask Brewster (15/2) + Havaila (11/2) + Road To Home (13/2)

By dutching this trio, you completely insulate your bankroll:

1. Ask Brewster covers the front-end dictatorship.
2. Havaila covers the deep-closing pace collapse.
3. Road To Home (who was beaten only a neck by Ask Brewster last time out and jumps cleanly at +8.39L) sits in the Goldilocks prominent tracker position.

You corner the three highest-rated RaceIQ jumpers in the field and completely bypass the structurally exposed favourite and the heavy-weight liabilities. This is a masterclass setup.

 

[Chesham]

Perhaps as it is a sprint JennyK will tackle this race using the Ability Ratings It will be interesting see JennyK take us through the elimination process for this race.

The Balanced Handicap Check: 6.45 Musselburgh​

To determine if this 13-runner handicap fits the structural criteria, we will test the spread of the Official Ratings (OR) to see if the weights are evenly distributed.

The Mathematical Breakdown

First, let's rank the field by Official Rating from top to bottom:

1. Ziggys Triton (86)
2. Jer Batt (84)
3. Im Next (83)
4. Archduke Ferdinand (82)
5. Mon Na Slieve (81)
6. Montezuma (78)
7. Reigning Profit (77)
8. South Parade (74)
9. Azuinthejungle (73)
10. Arnhem (68)
11. Albegone (67)
12. Knicks (66)
13. Pop Star (66)

Now, we apply the formula:

• Top OR: 86
• Bottom OR: 66
• Mathematical Midpoint: 76 (Calculated as 86 + 66 / 2)
• Median OR: 77 (In a 13-runner field, the median is exactly the 7th-ranked horse. Reigning Profit sits in the 7th spot with an OR of 77).

The Verdict: BALANCED (PASSED)​

According to the strict rules of the system, the median OR must sit within a 0-to-2 point variance of the mathematical midpoint.

In this race, the median (77) sits exactly 1 point above the mathematical midpoint (76).

Because it easily falls within the acceptable 2-point maximum variance, this mathematically qualifies as a Balanced Handicap. The handicapper has successfully staggered the weights to create a legitimate, structural three-tier race (above class, in class, below class). This race passes the check and is a perfect candidate to proceed with the rest of the elimination method.

Here is exactly how the 13-runner field for the 6.45 Musselburgh breaks down into Eric Bowers’ three-tier class structure.

With a 20-pound spread from the Top OR (86) to the Bottom OR (66), we split the handicap into three relatively even bands (roughly 6 to 7 pounds each):

The Top Tier: "Above Class" (OR 80 – 86)​

These horses are the class of the field based on past performance. They are being asked to carry the heaviest weights to give the rest of the field a fighting chance, but they theoretically have the most natural ability.

• Ziggys Triton (86)
• Jer Batt (84)
• Im Next (83)
• Archduke Ferdinand (82)
• Mon Na Slieve (81)

The Middle Tier: "In Class" (OR 73 – 79)​

This is the core of the handicap. These horses sit right on or around the mathematical midpoint (76) and median (77). They are carrying average weight against horses of very similar current ability, making this the most mathematically competitive block.

• Montezuma (78)
• Reigning Profit (77)
• South Parade (74)
• Azuinthejungle (73)

The Bottom Tier: "Below Class" (OR 66 – 72)​

These are the lightweights of the race. Mathematically, they are the lowest-rated horses in the field, meaning they are stepping up in class to face tougher opposition. However, they are receiving a significant weight advantage from the horses in the top tier as compensation.

• Arnhem (68)
• Albegone (67)
• Knicks (66)
• Pop Star (66)

 

[Chesham]

Another one for you JennyK

The Balanced Handicap Check: 4.25 Nottingham​

To determine if this 10-runner handicap fits the structural criteria, we will test the spread of the Official Ratings (OR) to see if the weights are evenly distributed.

The Mathematical Breakdown

First, let's rank the field by Official Rating from top to bottom:

1. Desert Cop (92)
2. Layla Liz (90)
3. Smart Vision (89)
4. Nad Alshiba Green (87)
5. Master Of My Fate (86)
6. Michaelas Boy (86)
7. Muker (84)
8. Grandlad (80)
9. Intervention (78)
10. Nogos Dream (77)

Now, we apply the formula:

• Top OR: 92
• Bottom OR: 77
• Mathematical Midpoint: 84.5 (Calculated as 92 + 77 / 2)
• Median OR: 86 (In a 10-runner field, the median is the average of the 5th and 6th ranked horses. Master Of My Fate at 86 and Michaelas Boy at 86 average exactly 86).

The Verdict: BALANCED (PASSED)​

According to the strict rules of the system, the median OR must sit within a 0-to-2 point variance of the mathematical midpoint.

In this race, the median (86) sits exactly 1.5 points above the mathematical midpoint (84.5).

Because it falls comfortably within the acceptable 2-point maximum variance, this mathematically qualifies as a Balanced Handicap. The handicapper has successfully staggered the weights to create a legitimate, structural three-tier race. This race passes the check and is a perfect candidate to proceed with the rest of the elimination method.

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The Tiers (Structural Breakdown)​

With a 15-pound spread from the Top OR (92) to the Bottom OR (77), we can split the handicap cleanly into three relatively even bands (roughly 5 pounds each):

The Top Tier: "Above Class" (OR 88 – 92) These are the class horses of the field based on past performance. They are weighted to the hilt to equalize their advantage, but they possess the highest proven ability.

• Desert Cop (92)
• Layla Liz (90)
• Smart Vision (89)

The Middle Tier: "In Class" (OR 83 – 87) This is the core of the handicap. These horses sit right on or around the mathematical midpoint (84.5) and median (86). They are carrying average weight against horses of very similar current ability, making this a highly competitive block.

• Nad Alshiba Green (87)
• Master Of My Fate (86)
• Michaelas Boy (86)
• Muker (84)

The Bottom Tier: "Below Class" (OR 77 – 82) These are the lightweights of the race. Mathematically, they are the lowest-rated horses in the field, stepping up to face tougher opposition. However, they receive a generous weight advantage from the horses in the top tier to balance the scales.

• Grandlad (80)
• Intervention (78)
• Nogos Dream (77)

 

[JennyK]

"Were I considering paying for ability ratings, I'd need assurances about what countries were covered (they would certainly need to include Ireland, France, Bahrain and Meydan)."

Desert Cop, 4.25 Nottingham tomorrow, a case in point, nagwa. Seems to spend more time in Bahrain than in the UK. For some horses, I know of no alternative re getting their ability ratings to checking the Racing Post website.

 

[Chesham]

"Were I considering paying for ability ratings, I'd need assurances about what countries were covered (they would certainly need to include Ireland, France, Bahrain and Meydan)."

Desert Cop, 4.25 Nottingham tomorrow, a case in point, nagwa. Seems to spend more time in Bahrain than in the UK. For some horses, I know of no alternative re getting their ability ratings to checking the Racing Post website.

HRB does not provide Ability Ratings nagwa but you can use their data to help produce your own
Desert Cop comes out Top on Ability ratings without the Bahrain Data . Are you going to include this Nottingham Race with the two that I have posted or are you going to swerve the challenge of participating

Ready to participate if you are JennyK

Here is exactly how the 10-runner field for the 4.25 Nottingham breaks down into Eric Bowers’ three-tier class structure.

With a 15-pound spread from the Top OR (92) to the Bottom OR (77), we can split the handicap cleanly into three relatively even bands (roughly 5 pounds each):

The Top Tier: "Above Class" (OR 88 – 92)​

These are the class horses of the field based on past performance. They are weighted to the hilt to equalize their advantage, but they possess the highest proven ability.

• Desert Cop (92)
• Layla Liz (90)
• Smart Vision (89)

The Middle Tier: "In Class" (OR 83 – 87)​

This is the core of the handicap. These horses sit right on or around the mathematical midpoint (84.5) and median (86). They are carrying average weight against horses of very similar current ability, making this a highly competitive block.

• Nad Alshiba Green (87)
• Master Of My Fate (86)
• Michaelas Boy (86)
• Muker (84)

The Bottom Tier: "Below Class" (OR 77 – 82)​

These are the lightweights of the race. Mathematically, they are the lowest-rated horses in the field, stepping up to face tougher opposition. However, they receive a generous weight advantage from the horses in the top tier to balance the scales.

• Grandlad (80)
• Intervention (78)
• Nogos Dream (77)

 

[gerry]

I have went back to my speed rating system that used by my dad for ever long time ago and i followed it start of last season but wet weather i felt ruined it later on in summer but going to use it all summer this year and tomorrow there is only one race that would be used for it i already have my bets on as believe odds are good enough already and should not get bigger if i get it right.
The race is the 6 45 Musselburgh and there is only two horses i have this race between there could be three but ruled one out and will explain why.
The three horses that are worth a mention in this race are IM NEXT, MON NA SLIEVE and REIGNING PROFIT. Two of these horses are on last year form and one this year so they say in sprints current form is crucial so in that case it would be IM NEXT but is it as other two run on all weather not for form but to be fit for this.
Here my thoughts and how i done it on the race first thing is i have went through this years form for my book and only one horse from this year is IM NEXT which i believe Chesham mentioned on this forum already before this race was mentioned.
but this horse ran a good race behind AIR FORCE ONE in decent time was class 3 0-95 race so next time out at Beverley again we new track was ok and dropping to class 4 0-80 was drop in class and was good thing which it dually done and good time again i think although time was actually faster and up in weight was likely slower ground. This is class 4 again 0-85 so maybe slightly better than last time but same weight and must have big chance. IM NEXT also beat the fav here MONTAZUMA at this track in ok time and i dont see anything that fav can change that on this ground here as looks as alittle softer would have suited that i am glad its not.
Then i looked at MON NA SLIEVE who i had in book from last year from race run and was good time to get in book was class 3 0-90 he has went up 4 for that run but IM NEXT also up 6 so they look very close but MON NA SLIEVE after that run great race right after it here again behind AMERICAN AFFAIR and that was class 2 0-105 so was big step up and that form from that race worked out brilliant so i think ground will be ideal for this one it is down a pound for that race to so surely will go really well tomorrow. Only other horse that was in my book from last year was REIGNING PROFIT when it ran at Pontefract that was class 4 but 0-78 so was a little lower and would need improve on my book hes up 6lb for that to today and getting older so hard to see finding that little bit sprinters need and for that reason i just thought he fell short of the other two.
So when you look at track the going the speed i have this between MON NA SLIEVE and IM NEXT nd i have dutched them both good luck.

 

[JennyK]

Good luck, gerry. You have dutched two of the three VDW "form" horses in the race (the third being Montazuma). According to the Post's bookies odds page, those three are among the first four in the betting, the other being Jer Batt.

25/10/25 class 258, average OR 89.6, Jer Batt finished 7th as favourite

04/04/26 class 361, average OR 91.4, Jer Batt again finished 7th as favourite

Prior to the 25/10/25 race, Jer Batt had lost thirteen times since his last win (a class 387, average OR 86.2 on 04/08/24).

Tomorrow's race is a class 157, average OR 75.8

This seems to me to invite two questions. First, why was Jer Batt favourite in his last two races? Second, what do connections hope for tomorrow - are they dropping him a long way in class in the expectation that he will win or, not expecting him to win, is the run part of their plans to win a much more valuable handicap with him later?

 

[gerry]

Well here my thoughts on JER BATTE first of all it was fav because it run a great race being 3rd to KINSWOMAN at Haydock so was fav last race of season right after that run then first run back they thought had wind surgery so they backed it to fav as last year believe it or not first time out ran in that same race against AMERICAN AFFAIR that MON NA SLIEVE run in and considering was first run has the beating of MON NA SLIEVE on that run as he had already run and won.
Then you look at what IM NEXT done against KINSWOMAN at Chester and now hes closely matched with JER BATTE to and now when you look at the race behind DEMOCRACY DILEMMA it looks like JER BATTE has the beating of RIEGNING PROFIT its all tightly bunched but i see why you think JERR BATTE interesting here JennyK and why should go very close but here what i see and i dont think it will win this first of all this horses collateral form all stems from haydock not here although did win here it was slow time and this horse looks like it needs perfect good ground with maybe a little ease in it if anything only ever run once in anything with firm in it and flopped badly and i think the ground today will be quicker than good with nice week up here so far no rain for days. Stable not firing yet either so possible second run with wind op wont make difference i think its just is not quick enough on faster ground in easier tracks and its the only horse who didnt really frank that AMERICAN AFFAIR form. RIEGNING PROFIT seems to like Pontefract more i just think when you take going and track into it and times my two are logical so its all to do with ground i feel and final time will tell if i get it right i feel they will do close to average time A0.00 if i am wrong then time will be slower more like A1.50 will be surprised if they do slower.
The fav in this race the only time it run in fast time was when 3rd at Windsor to BROSAY but that was over 6fur and tells me it likes 6 fur or slower ground 5 fur so again i think will ne to quick this for it .

 

[Sullybomb]

These 2 + Master of My Fate

Cheers

 

[JennyK]

Perfectly plausible, gerry, but I am inclined to a different interpretation.

I like horses like Jer Batt who have been in the same ownership (preferably a sole owner) and with the same trainer for several years, because it suggests they really know what their horses can do and have a degree of patience.

In that context it is surely clear that connections know that Jer Batt's trip is 5f and he is several pounds better on going with give in the ground. (My figures are not sufficient for me to conclude that for him the more give the better.) It is also the case that races on soft and heavy are quite often won by horses proven on the going.

On 25/10/25 much was in Jer Batt's favour. He was down to his last winning mark, running over 5f on heavy, which he had shown a month earlier he could handle, coming a close 3rd at Chester, off top weight. Of his 11 rivals, only five were also proven on heavy and he was getting 10lb from the only other one of the six with comparable ability. I think that both the stable and the more informed racing public thought he had a good chance. That he went off favourite was reasonable and I see nothing in his performance in the race to suggest to me that he wasn't trying (the possibility of which was something VDW advised considering with well-beaten favourites).

After that race he has a wind operation, which suggests connections thought his disappointing run was partly down to breathing issues.

And so on to 04/04/26. A tougher race (class 361, average OR 91.4 compared to class 258, AOR 89.6), but off 2lb lower in the ORs, again 5f on suitable going, and following the wind problem no real surprise that Jer Batt was at the front of the market. I doubt connections were quite as hopeful as on 25/10/25, though, for two reasons. First, the stable had another runner, the eventual winner Pilgrim, also proven on the going, a year younger and with arguably more proven ability. Second, the jockey choices for the two Barron runners. William Pyle, a 3lb claimer who quite often rides Barron horses and who had ridden Jer Batt at Chester when a close 3rd and Saffie Osbourne who rarely rides for Barron. Pyle rode Pilgrim.

According to the Post, Jer Batt

Dwelt start, towards rear, headway 2f out, weakened inside final furlong (jockey said gelding was hampered leaving stalls) (op 9/2 tchd 10/3)

Whether connections thought Ms Osbourne bore any responsibility, so far she seems not to have ridden for Barron since and today she was riding (unsuccessfully) in two class 6s at Nottingham.

My view is that connections still have confidence that Jer Batt can win a race of the class of the 25/10/25 one or higher, but that he will need give in the ground to do so. What, then, is likely today, by comparison a much lower class race?

I have no reason to suspect that Jer Batt will be other than doing his best to win, and the drop in class suggests he could, and in fact although I think the stats show him better with give, his best win to date was on good, today's going.

Assuming he starts well (and he has started badly before a couple of times, not including the 04/04/26 race), I expect him to be competitive and he is the highest in the field on VDW's ability rating (though I've not checked my database figures against the Post site). But as this is good going, rather than soft or heavy, I will not be at all surprised if he proves unable to give weight (admittedly not much) to his three younger rivals, also VDW "form" horses, at the front of the market. Not a bet for me today, but certainly on my to follow list for when he next runs on what seems to be his ideal going.

It is quite tight at the front of the market, gerry. You've dutched two of the four market leaders and I'll be keeping my figures crossed for you, but it is not a race on which I'll be betting.

 

[JennyK]

Fivethousandtooone, 2.00 Carlisle, looks another whose AR needs adjusting, as so far much better on the aw (and rated a stone higher on it by the Official Handicapper) than on turf.

Nominally top rated on ability, I feel justified in dropping him down the ranking for the race, certainly below the next two, Brosay and Rousing Encore, .

 

[JennyK]

While I've found that VDW's ability ratings generally work out quite well, sometimes they are misleading and Diligently, 7.00 Windsor tonight, is the most extreme instance I've come across.

On the basis of a 2yo win in a race worth over £300,00 and a handicap win worth £5,700, he has an AR of 1570 and is pretty much sure to be top ability rated in every race he ever runs.

Today's race is in VDW terms a class 105 and Diligently has run in several around this level, only once going close to winning. Indian Run is another with, in my view, a similarly misleading ability rating.

When I assessed the race last night I adjusted Diligently and Indian Run's ability ratings below those of Another Abbot (AR 80) and Sturlasson (AR 76), seeing the former as a solid class/form horse and indeed backing him. I covered my stake on Diligently, largely because the 16.0 on Betfair seemed extremely generous, so with the withdrawal I am currently left with a tiny bet on Diligently (now adjusted to 12.07).

ps

now layed off for a really trivial profit whatever happens.

pps

Having waited to see if there were any more non-runners, I have re-run the race with the depleted field through my Excel application and see Durham Castle (AR 69) as the VDW class/form horse (earlier he was of course below both Another Abbot and Sturlasson in the ability rating ranking). There are higher ability-rated horses in the field but none in my view a VDW "form" horse.

Durham Castle won last year's equivalent and therefore course and distance are fine and he has won on the going. He is unproven with 9.11, though, and it remains to be seen whether he will be fit enough after a 79 day absence and on only his second race of the year to run to his best. Taken together, in my view these would put Durham Castle into the 80%+ of class/form horses that VDW would have left unbacked. Ever a sucker for horses returning to races they won last year, though, despite that I have risked a small ew bet, 4 places with Bet365. Only myself to blame if he runs down the field, for deciding to disregard the question marks.

 

[Chesham]

Ouch

 

[JennyK]

Not really. Fortunately my racing pal judged it better:

From: Coffee Dodger <coffedodger@
Sent: 15 June 2026 13:52
To: Jenny Kempston@
Subject: Re: 7.00

It's putting quite a lot of trust into the trainer to back a horse that needed wind surgery after his first run in 2023, has only run 6 times since then, and once in the past year.... Perhaps their perseverance will pay off, but the horse seems to be made out of glass, glue, paper and string.... A few pounds sounds about right, though I've covered Diligently, rather than go e/w on DC.

On Mon, 15 Jun 2026 at 19:02, Jenny Kempston< wrote

You were right again!

From: Coffee Dodger <coffedodger@
Sent: 15 June 2026 19:43
To: Jenny Kempston <
Subject: Re: 7.00

Thanks, though it was your blue cell in BH and the ability rating which initially drew my attention. The substance to the AR was debatable, but it looked impressive on the spreadsheet! Beyond that, he got the blue cell from winning over c/d last summer, and went off fav. here last month in a higher class race and had excuses - Held up in rear, headway when not clear run over 1f out, soon no chance (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run repeatedly inside final 3f). With a better jockey today, I just thought he was worth giving another chance against horses with doubts over ability, fitness and/or conditions.... Still needed to overcome the recent high 'ask' numbers, but lto could be ignored and the positives in his profile were encouraging re. previous course form.

 

[Chesham]

The Master Class Flaw (Durham Castle): While Durham Castle achieves a strong peak value of 86.00, his subsequent drop to 76.00 confirms his vulnerability off a long layout. He is a highly unstable anchor.

 

[Chesham]

There is a good sprint race at Hamilton JennyK

 

[Leodis]

There is a good sprint race at Hamilton JennyK

The 15.25 and 16.02 are unbalanced from a Bower perspective (+2.5 and +5.5).

Regards

 

[Chesham]

Hi Leodis

No , not a Bower Race , using another method for that race

 

[Chesham]

}

tumble weed on here

 

[JennyK]

In my view there is nothing worth remarking on in relation to the ability ratings for the two Thirsk sprints or indeed the 7.30 Ripon. I am taking them at face value for the purpose of identifying the three VDW class/form horses. I haven't kept records but I doubt I manually adjust an AR (as in my view misleading) in more than one race in ten, and to find two in the same race, as with Diligently and Indian Run, is very unusual (can't remember another instance).

For nearly all the time the ability rating can safely be taken at face value, for its purpose, ranking the field as a preliminary for the individual assessment of each horse's "form" status and whether any serious conditions issues apply.