A short thread
- Thread starter hedgehog
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hedgehog
Dam
Thanks
retriever , much appreciated
I've been looking at my results, I have an initial subset based on the forecast which catches the winner most of the time, then I have ratings which give me my working subset then I try rudimentary form reading. If the winner is in my working subset it's worse than a coin toss for me to get the winner. It seems my ratings are the main loss of winners then the next form reading but it's the form reading that wrankles as I'm throwing winners away on some very stupid reasons.
I think this is because when I'm looking at the form I have a horse or horse's I think should win instead of gathering all the information together and then choosing. Take today I looked at the 7.45 Ballinrobe and the winner was not in my working subset but I had a fancy for shady operator which wasn't even the best finisher of my working subset. When that happens I consider it a complete defeat. Thankfully there is time to improve.
Good luck and stay well
retriever , much appreciatedI've been looking at my results, I have an initial subset based on the forecast which catches the winner most of the time, then I have ratings which give me my working subset then I try rudimentary form reading. If the winner is in my working subset it's worse than a coin toss for me to get the winner. It seems my ratings are the main loss of winners then the next form reading but it's the form reading that wrankles as I'm throwing winners away on some very stupid reasons.
I think this is because when I'm looking at the form I have a horse or horse's I think should win instead of gathering all the information together and then choosing. Take today I looked at the 7.45 Ballinrobe and the winner was not in my working subset but I had a fancy for shady operator which wasn't even the best finisher of my working subset. When that happens I consider it a complete defeat. Thankfully there is time to improve.
Good luck and stay well
hedgehog
Dam
Scores so far 14/53 20.28pts
Tomorrow sandown 8.00 epic endeavour
My subset for this race is ransom, Newbolt and the selection.
Newbolt is an easy swerve, though probably wrong! Lto2 ran to an 89 now 88 so no improvement necessary but soft 1 place from 2 runs and had a spin right-handed and failed to place, doesn't have form support either. Swerved.
Ransom is harder and likely to bite me in the butt. Only had 3 runs and won twice, right-handed 1 win 2 runs, never tried soft, lto ran to a 90 now 88. No improvement necessary. Has form support, trainer jockey combo 50% . Only won 7f on the aw. Swerved reluctantly.
EE strike rate 38%, ran to an 86 lto2 now 90 but had a subsequent win, has won a C3, won 8f soft, soft right-handed 2 wins 1 place 3 runs so the conditions are spot on. Needs to improve but favoured by conditions. Trainer only 6% and jockey 14% but not won as a combo in last 21 days, has form support
I'm doubting my judgement at the moment so I'll let the horse run unbacked but the 6/1 by paddypower is very tempting
Good luck and stay well and hoping ransom is not a group horse in the making
Tomorrow sandown 8.00 epic endeavour
My subset for this race is ransom, Newbolt and the selection.
Newbolt is an easy swerve, though probably wrong! Lto2 ran to an 89 now 88 so no improvement necessary but soft 1 place from 2 runs and had a spin right-handed and failed to place, doesn't have form support either. Swerved.
Ransom is harder and likely to bite me in the butt. Only had 3 runs and won twice, right-handed 1 win 2 runs, never tried soft, lto ran to a 90 now 88. No improvement necessary. Has form support, trainer jockey combo 50% . Only won 7f on the aw. Swerved reluctantly.
EE strike rate 38%, ran to an 86 lto2 now 90 but had a subsequent win, has won a C3, won 8f soft, soft right-handed 2 wins 1 place 3 runs so the conditions are spot on. Needs to improve but favoured by conditions. Trainer only 6% and jockey 14% but not won as a combo in last 21 days, has form support
I'm doubting my judgement at the moment so I'll let the horse run unbacked but the 6/1 by paddypower is very tempting
Good luck and stay well and hoping ransom is not a group horse in the making
hedgehog
Dam
Today 2.40 Chester king's knight
My subset for this race is mission boy and the selection. MB is a reasonably easy swerve, still a maiden, 2 races back ran to a 91 and subsequently came last after that, trainer jockey combo 1 win 1 run last 21 days but the horse is already drifting in the market. Swerved
KK strike rate 29%, last winning mark 81 now 90 and ran to an 87 lto when made favourite in a C2 and beaten a head so little improvement necessary, has won 7f std and soft, never tried gs but good or soft 1 win 1 place 2 runs, has form support, trainer jockey combo a blank, trainer 8% jockey 19% in last 21 days, has won a C4
I've taken the 8/1 with a boost on KK
Good luck today and stay well
My subset for this race is mission boy and the selection. MB is a reasonably easy swerve, still a maiden, 2 races back ran to a 91 and subsequently came last after that, trainer jockey combo 1 win 1 run last 21 days but the horse is already drifting in the market. Swerved
KK strike rate 29%, last winning mark 81 now 90 and ran to an 87 lto when made favourite in a C2 and beaten a head so little improvement necessary, has won 7f std and soft, never tried gs but good or soft 1 win 1 place 2 runs, has form support, trainer jockey combo a blank, trainer 8% jockey 19% in last 21 days, has won a C4
I've taken the 8/1 with a boost on KK
Good luck today and stay well
hedgehog
Dam
Scores 14/55 18.28pts profit. KK ran well enough and made up a lot of ground in the last 2f
This evening Salisbury 8.15 gentlemen at arms
My subset for this race is single, russian rumour and the selection.
RR is a relatively easy swerve, ran once on gs and didn't place, last winning mark 68 now 78 and ran to a 65 lto, has a 5lb claim but expecting it to lose. Swerved
S a harder swerve, last winning mark 65 now 68 and 5lb claim so no improvement necessary, won 14f twice and gs 1 win from 3 runs, has CD win, however its wins have been in C6s, reluctantly swerved.
GAA, strike rate 25%, last winning mark 75 now 78 and ran to a 85 lto which is better than anything in this race, won 13f hvy and won a C3, gs 1 place 2 runs, trainer jockey combo a blank but trainer 22% and jockey 15% in last 21 days, odds dropping in last 3 runs, has form support.
I've taken the 7/1 with a boost on GAA
Good luck and stay well
This evening Salisbury 8.15 gentlemen at arms
My subset for this race is single, russian rumour and the selection.
RR is a relatively easy swerve, ran once on gs and didn't place, last winning mark 68 now 78 and ran to a 65 lto, has a 5lb claim but expecting it to lose. Swerved
S a harder swerve, last winning mark 65 now 68 and 5lb claim so no improvement necessary, won 14f twice and gs 1 win from 3 runs, has CD win, however its wins have been in C6s, reluctantly swerved.
GAA, strike rate 25%, last winning mark 75 now 78 and ran to a 85 lto which is better than anything in this race, won 13f hvy and won a C3, gs 1 place 2 runs, trainer jockey combo a blank but trainer 22% and jockey 15% in last 21 days, odds dropping in last 3 runs, has form support.
I've taken the 7/1 with a boost on GAA
Good luck and stay well
hedgehog
Dam
Gentlemen at arms did nothing
Scores 14/56 17.28pts profit
I'm on a losing streak at the moment having not won since fair mountain so I'm just going through the motions but not betting.
Tomorrow curragh 7.05 powerful ted
My subset for this race is shanroe and the selection. Shanroe has a mark of 94 tomorrow but in its last flat race ran to an 87 so i don't think it will win.
PT strike rate flat 25%, lightly raced flat with only 4 runs, not won with an OR now 87, lto2 flat run ran to 91, lto flat run ran to 97 so 10lbs better than mark. Lto flat race was a high class handicap were it came 3rd. It's subsequently won a handicap hurdle of 105 which allowing 30lbs is equivalent to a 85 on the flat so in the right range, has won 12f and 16f. Was 6/1 when I looked which is generous.
Good luck and stay well
Scores 14/56 17.28pts profit
I'm on a losing streak at the moment having not won since fair mountain so I'm just going through the motions but not betting.
Tomorrow curragh 7.05 powerful ted
My subset for this race is shanroe and the selection. Shanroe has a mark of 94 tomorrow but in its last flat race ran to an 87 so i don't think it will win.
PT strike rate flat 25%, lightly raced flat with only 4 runs, not won with an OR now 87, lto2 flat run ran to 91, lto flat run ran to 97 so 10lbs better than mark. Lto flat race was a high class handicap were it came 3rd. It's subsequently won a handicap hurdle of 105 which allowing 30lbs is equivalent to a 85 on the flat so in the right range, has won 12f and 16f. Was 6/1 when I looked which is generous.
Good luck and stay well
hedgehog
Dam
Picked the wrong one scores 14/57 16.28pts profit
Today Epsom 5.15 midnight legacy
My subset for this race is group one power, the trader and the selection
GOP 43% strike rate, no form support, mark 88 last win 82 but ran to a 93 lto, has won 12f good and good or soft left-handed 1 win 2 runs, has won a C3
TT strike rate 15%, last win 93 now 95 and ran to 92 lto so little improvement necessary, has form support, never tried good to soft left-handed but has failed to place on the going right-handed from 2 attempts
ML strike rate 27%, has form support, last win 88 now 92 and ran to an 88 lto, needs to improve but has the right going to do so with 2 wins 1 place from 5 runs good to soft left-handed, has won a C3
On balance, and my judgement is poor at the moment, I think ML has exactly the right conditions having won 12f good to soft before.
Last night when I looked ML was 7/1 which I thought was generous though I'll not be betting until I can sort out my current poor judgement
Good luck today and stay well
Today Epsom 5.15 midnight legacy
My subset for this race is group one power, the trader and the selection
GOP 43% strike rate, no form support, mark 88 last win 82 but ran to a 93 lto, has won 12f good and good or soft left-handed 1 win 2 runs, has won a C3
TT strike rate 15%, last win 93 now 95 and ran to 92 lto so little improvement necessary, has form support, never tried good to soft left-handed but has failed to place on the going right-handed from 2 attempts
ML strike rate 27%, has form support, last win 88 now 92 and ran to an 88 lto, needs to improve but has the right going to do so with 2 wins 1 place from 5 runs good to soft left-handed, has won a C3
On balance, and my judgement is poor at the moment, I think ML has exactly the right conditions having won 12f good to soft before.
Last night when I looked ML was 7/1 which I thought was generous though I'll not be betting until I can sort out my current poor judgement
Good luck today and stay well
hedgehog
Dam
Today Perth 2.35 the unit/collooney
My subset for this race is rock on Rocco, victory echo and the selections
VE this is an easy swerve, now 115 and ran to 105 lto so a big improvement needed and has tried good right-handed twice and failed to place
ROR strike rate 30%, last winning mark 120 now 127, lto on good to soft ran to a 117+ but was driven out a big improvement needed but good right-handed 1 win 2 places 4 runs, reluctantly swerved
TU strike rate 21%, highest winning mark 140 last winning mark 139 now 129 and ran to a 138 lto so no improvement necessary, has form support, has won 21f and 20f, won C2 and 2xC3, good right-handed 2 wins 5 places 7 runs so never been out of the first 3, has form support. Trainer won yesterday and the day before though on flat so seems to be coming into form
C strike rate 25%, last winning mark 129 now 125 and ran to 128 lto so no improvement necessary, good right-handed 1 win 3 places 4 runs so another never out of the first 3, won C2, no form support and so far only as far as 17f but is being backed in from last night when I looked at this race, trainer jockey combo 20% in last 21 days
I think TU is my best option but I have bet both
Good luck and stay well
My subset for this race is rock on Rocco, victory echo and the selections
VE this is an easy swerve, now 115 and ran to 105 lto so a big improvement needed and has tried good right-handed twice and failed to place
ROR strike rate 30%, last winning mark 120 now 127, lto on good to soft ran to a 117+ but was driven out a big improvement needed but good right-handed 1 win 2 places 4 runs, reluctantly swerved
TU strike rate 21%, highest winning mark 140 last winning mark 139 now 129 and ran to a 138 lto so no improvement necessary, has form support, has won 21f and 20f, won C2 and 2xC3, good right-handed 2 wins 5 places 7 runs so never been out of the first 3, has form support. Trainer won yesterday and the day before though on flat so seems to be coming into form
C strike rate 25%, last winning mark 129 now 125 and ran to 128 lto so no improvement necessary, good right-handed 1 win 3 places 4 runs so another never out of the first 3, won C2, no form support and so far only as far as 17f but is being backed in from last night when I looked at this race, trainer jockey combo 20% in last 21 days
I think TU is my best option but I have bet both
Good luck and stay well
hedgehog
Dam
Later today Perth 4.20 forgot to ask/Potterman
My subset for this race is el presente, landofsmiles and the selections
EP strike rate 31%, last winning mark 142 now 148 and ran to a 140 lto so needs to improve a fair amount, good right-handed 4 wins 3 places 10 runs, has won a C1, has form support but trainer jockey combo a blank in last 21 days, on balance a reluctant swerve
LOS is an easier swerve, strike rate 14%, last winning mark 120 now 127 and lto ran to 121 so an improvement necessary, only tried G Rhdd once and failed to place, good 2 places from 4 runs. Swerved.
FTA, strike rate 23%, last winning mark 120 now 128 but ran to a 126 lto so little improvement necessary, good right-handed 2 wins 2 places 6 runs, won 24f and 26f, won 2xC3, has form support, trainer jockey combo 28%
P, strike rate 38%, last winning mark 147 now 148 so little improvement necessary but won that in the stewards room, form support, good right-handed 4 wins 2 places 8 runs, has won C1 and a C2, won 24f and 29f. I'm hoping this is Alan King's day as seems to be coming into form and now I've bet 2 of his.
I think P is my best chance but have bet both
Good luck and stay well
My subset for this race is el presente, landofsmiles and the selections
EP strike rate 31%, last winning mark 142 now 148 and ran to a 140 lto so needs to improve a fair amount, good right-handed 4 wins 3 places 10 runs, has won a C1, has form support but trainer jockey combo a blank in last 21 days, on balance a reluctant swerve
LOS is an easier swerve, strike rate 14%, last winning mark 120 now 127 and lto ran to 121 so an improvement necessary, only tried G Rhdd once and failed to place, good 2 places from 4 runs. Swerved.
FTA, strike rate 23%, last winning mark 120 now 128 but ran to a 126 lto so little improvement necessary, good right-handed 2 wins 2 places 6 runs, won 24f and 26f, won 2xC3, has form support, trainer jockey combo 28%
P, strike rate 38%, last winning mark 147 now 148 so little improvement necessary but won that in the stewards room, form support, good right-handed 4 wins 2 places 8 runs, has won C1 and a C2, won 24f and 29f. I'm hoping this is Alan King's day as seems to be coming into form and now I've bet 2 of his.
I think P is my best chance but have bet both
Good luck and stay well
hedgehog
Dam
2 losing races scores 15/60 24.28pts
Not much to look at until Saturday so since PP had put the odds up Saturday Sandown 2.50 no decision made yet
My subset for this race is king's knight and latest generation
KK strike rate 25%, last winning mark 81 now 90 but ran to a 98 lto in a C2, no improvement necessary and ran lto to an OR better than anything in this race, has form support, good to firm or good 3 places 4 runs, same right-handed 1 place 1 run, has only won 7f and C4, trainer jockey combo 25% in last 21 days, has converted a favourite into a win
LG strike rate 25%, 3yo so getting 11lbs wfa, never won with a handicap mark now 93, is effectively running to a 82 and lto ran to an 86 so no improvement necessary, has form support, good right-handed 1 place 1 run, good 1 win 1 place 3 runs, running in a 3yo+ for the first time, has won 8f good, trainer jockey combo 8%, has converted a favourite into a win
I'll make my decision Saturday morning. At this point I have 4 choices, swerve, bet KK, bet LG or bet both which at the odds now doesn't give much profit.
Good luck and stay well
Not much to look at until Saturday so since PP had put the odds up Saturday Sandown 2.50 no decision made yet
My subset for this race is king's knight and latest generation
KK strike rate 25%, last winning mark 81 now 90 but ran to a 98 lto in a C2, no improvement necessary and ran lto to an OR better than anything in this race, has form support, good to firm or good 3 places 4 runs, same right-handed 1 place 1 run, has only won 7f and C4, trainer jockey combo 25% in last 21 days, has converted a favourite into a win
LG strike rate 25%, 3yo so getting 11lbs wfa, never won with a handicap mark now 93, is effectively running to a 82 and lto ran to an 86 so no improvement necessary, has form support, good right-handed 1 place 1 run, good 1 win 1 place 3 runs, running in a 3yo+ for the first time, has won 8f good, trainer jockey combo 8%, has converted a favourite into a win
I'll make my decision Saturday morning. At this point I have 4 choices, swerve, bet KK, bet LG or bet both which at the odds now doesn't give much profit.
Good luck and stay well
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