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2021 Flat Selections

16/0/21
18:55 Wdr - 10f Cl4 4yo+ Hcp

Lady Reset 0.25pt 12 on BF

Chris Wall's fav, Glen Esk looked all out to win at Wdr last time (3rd, 4th and 5th unplaced NTO) and is substantially up in class here from a median OR of 67.5 to 77 today.

LR has been running consistently well this season, only just beaten by the extremely well-handicapped Sandown specialist Andaleep on her last Flat appearance and going on to win over hurdles LTO. She was pulled out last week as GF ground appears to be essential to her.

I may take some for 2 places but the prices are rubbish at the moment.
 
PHS said:
16/0/21
18:55 Wdr - 10f Cl4 4yo+ Hcp

Lady Reset 0.25pt 12 on BF

Chris Wall's fav, Glen Esk looked all out to win at Wdr last time (3rd, 4th and 5th unplaced NTO) and is substantially up in class here from a median OR of 67.5 to 77 today.
Click to expand...
Got Glen Esk beaten but Lady Reset was ridden too far back and given too much to do.
 
20/08/21

19:23 Sal - Cl5 8f 3yo Hcp
0.1875pt Mark Of Respect 5/1
0.0625pt Mercurius Power 3/1

Mark Of Respect had been running well in this grade in June until running on Soft LTO. The form of his Newm win has worked out quite well, with 2 wins (same horse) and 5 places in the same grade. Portman has been struggling a bit with figures of 1-32 in the last 45 days, but I'm hoping that 1-4-9 in the last 14 days means that trainer form won't be a problem. Saver on the Balding horse who might have been unsuited by the track at Bri last time in what was a hot race for the grade anyway, with £9k prize money for the winner.
 
No good. 2nd and 3rd. Looks like (from the times and comments made) the ground went against MoR and it was more like Good To Soft than the original Good, Good to Firm in places.

Edit: Can't see much rain on the radar, so don't know where they're getting that from.

Edit: 4.3sec slow and the fastest of four mile races at the track. I'd like to know where the Good to Firm in places was! The car park?
 
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28/08/21

16:25 Bev - Cl4 7.5f 4yo+ Hcp
Tangled 0.375pt @15/2
Rains Of Castamere 0.125pt @13/2

Tangled is a standing dish here, and has been running well all year. He's a hold up horse and there looks to be plenty of pace on today. Off 82, he's only 4lb higher than his closing mark last year despite having won twice and been 2nd twice, so I think there's scope for more of the same today.

With his 1 draw, it's hard to ignore Rains Of Castamere's chance if he comes back to form. He fought back strongly when headed at Hayd in June and this course could play to his strengths if his rider can conserve energy for the finish.


17:05 New - Cl4 10f 3yo+ Hcp
Contingency Fee 0.25pt w/o Mustazeed @10/1 and 2 pl saver @9/2

Contingency Fee showed a good attitude when winning here two starts back and has been a revelation since the visor was fitted. 3yo Mustazeed didn't get a clear run when 3rd at Sand two starts back and was unsuited by the steady pace at Lei last time, and is feared.


16:45 Goo
I've also had 0.125pt on Johnston's Dontaskmeagain @ 10/1. He ran well trying to give a 3yo 10lb at Newm last time and was keeping on strongly at the finish.
 
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Some pretty difficult to predict winners today;

15:55 New - Indigo Times 28/1 (10/11 Fav nowhere)
16:25 Bev - La Rav 16/1
17:05 New - Atheeb 22/1
 
29/08/21

16:15 Bev - Cl6 10f 3yo+ Hcp

Iron Sheriff - 0.125pt @ 7 and 0.125pt @2.5 TBP

IS caught the eye (rated 58) in a Cl5 mile Hcp when 2nd to the 75 rated Helm Rock but even more so when travelling well but short of room over today's C&D last time*. He's now 2lb lower and drops into a Cl6. Hugh Taylor's pick, Act Of Magic, is also dropping in class but coming down in trip (from 11/12f) and I'm not sure that's to his advantage (gone close 3 times but never won over 10f).

*Of course, it's quite possible the same could happen today.
 
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August Results

DateTimeCseSelBet TypeStake UnitStake TotalDec oddsPosReturnProfitROI
04-Aug​
19:45​
YarInternationalangelW
0.125​
0.125​
7.00​
1​
0.88​
05-Aug​
14:00​
BriKnowingW
0.500​
0.500​
6.50​
06-Aug​
20:25​
HaySociologistW
0.063​
0.063​
26.00​
06-Aug​
20:25​
HayMultellieEW
0.063​
0.125​
23.00​
12-Aug​
16:40​
SalHyannaEW
0.125​
0.250​
7.00​
14-Aug​
D
0.125​
0.375​
16-Aug​
18:55​
WdrLady ResetW
0.250​
0.250​
12.00​
18-Aug​
14:40​
CarJump The GunW
0.250​
0.250​
5.00​
18-Aug​
14:40​
CarOld NewsW
0.125​
0.125​
7.00​
18-Aug​
15:00​
YorSir LucanW
0.250​
0.250​
5.50​
19-Aug​
19:55​
WdrSword BeachW
0.125​
0.125​
13.00​
1​
1.63​
20-Aug​
19:23​
SalMercurius PowerW
0.188​
0.188​
4.00​
20-Aug​
19:23​
SalMark Of RespectW
0.063​
0.063​
6.00​
28-Aug​
16:25​
BevRains Of CastamereW
0.125​
0.125​
7.50​
28-Aug​
16:25​
BevTangledW
0.375​
0.375​
8.50​
28-Aug​
17:05​
NewContingency Fee w/oW
0.250​
0.250​
11.00​
28-Aug​
16:45​
GooDontaskmeagainW
0.125​
0.125​
11.00​
29-Aug​
16:15​
BevIron SheriffW
0.125​
0.125​
7.00​
29-Aug​
16:15​
BevIron SheriffP
0.125​
0.125​
2.50​
3.813​
2.50​
-1.31​
-34%​

Staking all wrong. Change the Sword Beach stake to 0.25pt and you'd have a 5% ROI.

Hardly any bets in Sept (and none posted here).
 
Nicked this off BF earlier (mine was the first bet matched). Since smashed up.

16:45 Pon - Helm Rock 0.375pt @9

MO is simply that he's back on going he relished back in May.

I might add another in this race if the price is right.

Edit: Added just a saver on Little Jo, 0.063pt @6/1
 
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So annoying when you have an Unmatched bet on BF and have to go out, so can''t really put it on here.
 
08/10/21

16:10 New - Moshaawar 0.25pt@7/1

When I looked at the stats for this type of race (before looking at the form), one of the first things I noticed for valuable end of season handicaps (data since 2014) regarding days since the horse ran was that those running after 6-25 days absence had an ordinary record (all around 7%) whilst the record of horses returning after an absence of 46-75 days was exceptional (26% for 46-60 days) i.e. those that had been laid out for the race did best. I immediately took the 7/1 with B365 on Moshaawar knowing that if I waited until after I'd studied the race it may well be too late, whilst also knowing that I'd probably be able to cash out if I didn't fancy it after looking at the form.

The 5lb rise for Siskany's 2nd last time looks a bit harsh but the winner went close in a Grp3 NTO and the 3rd won NTO, so maybe the rise is merited. Still, I don't see the 3/1 as value at all.

Boltaway's quick re-appearance looks like an after-thought and the race might come too soon (going to the Sales after this race).

Candleford weighed in 5lb light last time (disqualified) yet could still only manage 3rd. He'd need to improve to win tomorrow; eminently possible for one of Haggas's.

I was impressed with the way Moshaawar went from almost last 3f out to get in contention in a 10sec time-frame last time in the Melrose. He could only keep on at one pace in the last furlong but had beaten the winner in a 12f Novice earlier in the season, so maybe this drop back in trip will be in his favour. Jim Crowley is very confident in his Coral blog. The negative is Varian's poor form in Handicaps since the start of Sept, but he does have a great record with horses returning after a similar absence at this time of the year.

I did think Tribal Art ran very well to win his Carlisle race two runs back (2nd won since) before running tailed-off in Boltaway's race. He may have more to offer and is still relatively unexposed for a Johnston 3yo in October, but as markfinnmarkfinn says, the usual Johnston jockeys, Fanning and Curtis prefer others here. Maybe they don't get to choose. The 2nd at Carlisle runs at York (3:50), so could be a pointer.
 
I like the reasons behind the selection and think he has a good chance but I would also like Candleford at 12s on my side .Both trainer and jockey are in form and the lads 5lbs claim is a massive asset
 
Coseleymon said:
I like the reasons behind the selection and think he has a good chance but I would also like Candleford at 12s on my side .Both trainer and jockey are in form and the lads 5lbs claim is a massive asset
Click to expand...
Agreed, but be aware that he's 5lb worse off than last time after Haggas forgot to attach the weight cloth.

Kingman progeny only 9% at 1m 4f (though it's early days for the sire).
 
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09/10/21

14:37 Yor - 10.5f Cl2 3yo+ Hcp
Platinumcard 0.125pt ew @ 12/1
Sinjaari 0.125pt win@9/2 (Boost)

Platinumcard (at the age of 6) has been a big improver since being switched to the Flat this season. He'd probably have no chance in this if judged on his 6L 2nd behind Chichester on 16th Sept, but maybe that was just a prep race for his next appearance 2 days later in the Listed Doonside Cup. He finished 4th there, never any chance with the first two but beat Palavecino (rated 105) with the 116 rated Juan Elcano only a nk in front and the 116 rated Euchen Glen only 2.5L away. Take that form literally and he'd have a good chance here off 96, esp as I think this course with its long straight could suit him better (than Ayr). Dalgleish is in decent form and Garritty gets to claim the 3lb he couldn't in that listed race.

Sinjaari would have won with a clear run on his first appearance for Roger Charlton in the Skybet Hcp in August. On paper, there's plenty of pace on here, which should suit and Kirby will be keen to make amends for that first run.

The 15lb rise for Bay Bridge will take some overcoming. Although people are crabbing this year's London Gold Cup form, let's not forget that he finished well clear of anything else, though the absence with a foot injury leaves him something to prove, but he did look like a Group horse when winning that race.
 
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