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Would you take the 10/11 on trump or the 11/10 on Biden

kenny jones

kenny jones

Filly
Hi all,
In a two horse race were one is a cert perhaps the 11/10 about trump is actually a value bet because it looks like he is going to win.Lets put it like this.Bung your £5 quid on trump and if he wins you can buy a bag of chips,if he loses however you can celebrate the fact that planet earth may have a little more chance of surviving the next 20 years :):) :)
Kenny
 
Certainly is a bet I'v been looking at Kenny.
Everything that could go wrong for Trump has and he is still 11/10.
If the US economy can limp its way close to election day in its current or slightly better state and the Fires are put out by better "Forestry management" and "Law and Order" continues to strike fear into US Voters then Trump is home and hosed.
 
According to Oddschecker at the moment, Trump is 15/8 & Biden 8/15. I took 6/5 before their first debate. I'm going to have some more on Trump, i hope he is well.


Arkle
 
Just as here there's certain states that, as a rule, are safe states for either side, the swing states will decide a lot.
Depends how much Trump rams home law and order re the 'mostly peaceful' burning and looting etc.
 
arkle55 said:
I'm relying on the thoughts of George Galloway and Max Keiser
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If Trump would simply shut up he'd probably be doing ok, as things stand right now he appears to be alienating every single voting group he had in the bag one by one. I'm not sure if it is a form of self harm at the moment if i'm honest. What he does or says will not swing this election, how many votes they can get thrown out or that they can not have counted will be the decider for this election.
 
Regardless of preferences I'm just amazed at the amount of money that's gone down on it just on betfair. At one point a couple of months back they were both about even money. Poltical betting is the only markets I look at outside horses and I made a nice few quid on the 2016 ref and the ge last year re northern seats. I wonder if the US polling is making the same mistakes re samples etc as they did here for those votes, we'll know in 4 weeks anyway.

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My personal take on this is I know bugger all about the subject so why on earth would I have a bet on it.
Maybe those who are willing to enter the market could enlighten us as to their thinking
 
Its reminiscent of one of those football matches where its so close and your waiting for someone to make a mistake on which the other team can capitalized.
Trump has made so many mistakes but Biden is unable to capitalize its as if they are waiting for a slip from 'Sleepy' and then it will be cash, bang, wallet!
 
Me I wouldn't like to risk any serious money either way cos I'm not from there and don't live there so I have no vibe for how people really feel.
But I've got the popcorn ready to watch it play out over the next few months.

However I do think Biden is a bit short cos I don't see cut it and dried at all.
 
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pawras said:
I wonder if the US polling is making the same mistakes re samples etc as they did here for those votes
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The general consensus is that in 2016 Trump picked up almost all of the "undecided" voters, which is how he was able to defy the odds. However this time around, there are very few undecided votes to pickup, most people know who they are going for and indications from the latest polls show that the late deciders are now leaning Biden. The last two polls have been Biden +14 and Biden +16. At this point, Trump cannot win by converting all undecided votes, he now needs to win over Those that have commited to voting for Biden.

He needs to do this while telling old folks that he is going to strip social security, while he is in court suing to put an end to Obamacare that will take 16 million people out of having insurance during a pandemic, while he is calling for far right extremists to "form an army for trump" and go to the polls to watch people casting the vote, He is not making inroads, he is starting to sound desperate and has been falling back on the "If I don't win, its because the polling is rigged and the mail-in votes are all fraudulent" whilst at the same time telling his supporters to cast mail-in votes and also vote in person. He is suing in courts up and down the country to stop counting of ballots at midnight on the day of the election, he has just had a ruling upheld whereby anyone casting a mail-in vote in North Carolina needs to have a witness sign the ballot before it is submitted, he is having ballot drop-off boxes reduced down to just one per county (this means that Houston which did have 6-8 drop off boxes for 5 million people, now has just one box) .... etc etc etc, I still don't think it will be enough to be honest, but the culling of the vote in this election will be massive. He is trying to defund the Post office who are understaffed in order to delay ballots from getting to the count in-time so that they can be discarded.
 
hedgehog said:
Just bet on the tallest.
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If only it were that easy, Trump wears risers in his shoes to give him an extra few inches of height, he also mis-represents his height and weight in order to bring him in just under the "Obese" category. The sheer amount of disinformation that comes out of his office is frightening. :)
 
It's the cycle of politics.

A good analogy is of a pendulum.

With Obama/Clintons it had swung too far left.

People were sick of the erosion of Rural/Small Town America in preference of Urbanisation/Internationalism.

The 'little man' did not matter.

Trump seen a gap in the market.

He has manufactured a Persona that is going to stand-up and make America Great Again.

Fight to create/keep American Jobs and win

Fight for Law and Order and win

Keep American and Americans safe in their own homes/country and win

Fight the Kung Flu and win

They Love him for it.

US citizens won't say it in the street, won't tell the Pollestors but they know their hearts.

2/1 wont last long
 
He's a leader of our times. Bullsh!t before truth everyone. I'm expecting him to say they need to create a dome over America to stop illegal aliens

Stay well and very good luck
 
Frank Boyle said:
They Love him for it.
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They bought the promise, it has not materialized. It's difficult to run on a double-down when you did not deliver on your first promise.
He has only passed one major piece of legislation, a tax break for the wealthy. Every single thing he has done other than that can be reversed within 24 hours by the next person through the doors (apart from the judge appointments) , they are all executive orders.
 
pete said:
They bought the promise, it has not materialized. It's difficult to run on a double-down when you did not deliver on your first promise.
He has only passed one major piece of legislation, a tax break for the wealthy. Every single thing he has done other than that can be reversed within 24 hours by the next person through the doors (apart from the judge appointments) , they are all executive orders.
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Yes pete pete They did.

Here in the UK we have experienced the same type of Pendulum effect.

Tony Blair and New Labour after years of Tory Governments were elected and seen as the new hope.

People craved change and Blair was seen as the man to deliver.

He done more damage than good and betrayed those that foolishly backed him.

Now the pendulum is so far to the right that the Tory centrist are sounding like hippies.

Politics is in constant state of flux!

Just the way we traders like it.
 
Frank Boyle said:
Politics is in constant state of flux!

Just the way we traders like it.
Click to expand...

Yep, when the votes are counted it will likely be 55/45 so in a way the odds of 2/1 seem big. I had a bit on Bloomberg and followed him down from 22/1 to around 5/1 before I cashed out, I had a little on Kamala Harris to be VP and I have a little on Biden that I placed before he was nominated that I am going to let ride until probably just after the polls close.

However it is not the number of votes that count over here. It is who can win the states that are close. Bloomberg has put 100 million into Florida and told Biden that he will deliver Florida for him. The latest poll from there today shows Biden up 11 points in Florida.

I don't mind the Republicans, I don't mind the Democrats, I favor neither.
They both have policies I like, They both have policies I don't like.
I did not vote for Clinton, I will not vote for Trump.

I am in the heart of Trump country and I am hearing lots of excuses being made already. I just don't think there is the same kind of room to maneuver for Trump this time around, I think he has overstayed his welcome, burned all his bridges and will probably take down many a career politician with him when he leaves office, that's assuming that he even makes it to election night, at his current rate i'm not convinced that will happen. Its been revealed now that he had not taken Covid tests nor worn maks for many days if not weeks before he was confirmed positive. He was relying on everyone who came in contact with him being tested.

He is now still positive for Covid and instead of being in quarantine, he is back in the oval office "working", anyone that goes near him has to wear goggles, full Protective gear and be tested and doused down both before and after seeing him, its no way to run the country, but here we are. Frightening.
 
Frank Boyle said:
Yes pete pete They did.

Here in the UK we have experienced the same type of Pendulum effect.

Tony Blair and New Labour after years of Tory Governments were elected and seen as the new hope.

People craved change and Blair was seen as the man to deliver.

He done more damage than good and betrayed those that foolishly backed him.

Now the pendulum is so far to the right that the Tory centrist are sounding like hippies.

Politics is in constant state of flux!

Just the way we traders like it.
Click to expand...

Where people think the pendulum is at at any point in time is subjective according to their own personal overton window. e.g. I guy I was at school with only viewed the labour party under Corbyn as 'socialisty'.
 
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