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Today's All Weather Racing

Tricky is the right word, Dave Dave, in my view for Newcastle this evening, at least in the three decent sprint handicaps, where I have found nothing so far I want to back.

Bet365 sent me a flyer offering a free bet in the 5.30, actually free bet is a slight misnomer, so I had a look at that. Again, nothing I'd want to put significant money on, but I thought Novak ew, four places, work using the offer. Very speculative.

Novak is a 7yo, who on my figures improved considerably last year compared to 2024, which is unusual for a 6yo as he was then. In the last two years he has been predominantly on the aw, with all four wins in that period on it, and although he was won over 6f, his best trip seems to be today's 7f, with his last win being over today's course and distance.

That win, 28/09/25, was in higher class than today's race on both win prize money and average OR of field, and off 71, albeit with a 3lb claimer up. Today he is off 69, no claimer. On my performance ratings his first run this year was his best since the win on 28/09/25 and suggests he may be plateauing at around his 2025 level. IF he could repeat that performance today he would win. His poor performance lto may be excusable; Post comments as below:

Hampered start, in rear, headway against near rail 2f out, weakened final 110yds (jockey said gelding suffered interference leaving stalls) (op 18/1)
 
Dave said:
Newcastle 19:30

I have two selections in this race. This is something I’m quite happy to do if I feel the prices are still giving me what I perceive as Value.

DOSMAN

He’s a lightly raced unexposed 5 year old gelding. He last ran 21 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 2 over the mile and finished a good third beaten by 1.75 lengths having found traffics trouble. He went into my tracker from that race.

Today, he drops into a class 4 over the same trip. He should find this a bit calmer and If he gets his act together I believe he has the ability to win this race.

DOSMAN Win bet @ 4.3 BOG

My other selection in this race is another tracker horse CALLIANASSA

She’s an inform 5 year old mare that is a C& D winner. She last won 195 days ago and has raced twice since. LTO was 48 days ago over C& D where she finished third beaten by 1.55 lengths in a class 4 race. It was this race that she went into my tracker.

Her highest winning mark is 78 and she races off 82 today. I believe she can out run her mark .

She is too big a price at 14/1 and I’ve backed her each way.

CALLIANASSA EW bet @ 13.0 BOG
Click to expand...
OH what joy, very well done Dave Dave
 
Chesham said:
Well done Dave Dave

Nothing like a Pre Race example to back up how you approach to Race analysis,

Good advertisement for your Book
Click to expand...
Thanks Chesham it’s much appreciated especially from yourself. Hopefully it helps to sell more books. More importantly it shows with the right approach it is possible to narrow the field. The best news is I had the reverse forecast. £62.67
 
Wolverhampton 15:55

I have gone through the runners and narrowed it down to two horses Bomb Squad 3.0 who narrowly missed out. The other one is Invincible Melody 3.5 who ran yesterday finishing 5th. The prices are too short to play both and although I think Bomb Squad just edges it, the fact Invincible Melody ran yesterday concerns me.

No Bet for me.


Wolverhampton 17:30
The other race I’m interested in is the 17:30. I like 3 in this race. Alondra (5.5), Beaumadier (5.5) and Basholo (17).

Alondra
I liked Alondra LTO finished 3rd @ 33/1 ran well prior to that at Wolves but had a hard day being bashed about and blocked at vital times. She a 3y old filly who is certainly open to improvement. The only negative that is bothering me is she has been off since the 5th of December. Scott Dixon’s yard are bang in form so I’m guessing she’s had a set back and is ready now. She looks well handicapped.

Beaumadier is certainly of interest the gelding ran well LTO at Lingfield with Hollie Doyle in the plate. Today, he has Billy Loughnane riding. He’s drawn in 2 and has decent early pace and should get a good position into the bend.

Basholo ran well at Wolves back in November winning at 28/1 she has ran twice since in class 5s and done ok but more aimed I’d guess at getting the handicap down. Drops back to Cls 6. She’s drawn well in 4 and has previously shown early speed. If she pings out the stalls and gets a good early position she could well be in with a shout.

This is a tricky little race but one that offers some value.

I think she will be about 16/1 possible Ew.

Alondra win bet @ 5.5 Bog

Basholo EW @ 17.0 BOG
 
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Well done with Alondra, Dave Dave; I never dreamt she'd go out to 10.5 on Betfair.

I preferred Hint Of Humour to Basholo on class grounds and she drifted like Alondra but neither HOH or Basholo covered themselves with glory today.
 
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