Today's All Weather Racing

[JennyK]

Yes, Leodis, I copy and paste each race. Takes about 30 seconds a race, which can mean over half an hour on busy race days.

 

[Leodis]

It can help with Python coding if you want to scrape the data or macros for formatting. Not sure it would improve on 30 secs much though.

You can get a cheap, monthly subscription to racing-bet-data.com . I think it works out less than HRB.

Regards

 

[JennyK]

Thanks, Leodis

I know about the site you reference and have exchanged emails with the owner. The trouble is that it does not include some data I regard as essential (ie claims) while adding loads of what for me is superfluous (column after column of betting data, especially).

Another problem, and I found it to some extent with TheBluesBrother's sfs, is that those of us who maintain databases use different formats for such things as names (apostrophes or not), dates and weights. There is of course no "right" way to format any of this but when one's base is on one set of formats adding data from another base can involve more time in re-formatting data than downloading it oneself in the first place.

At the moment I am resigned to the daily chore. The silver lining is that I've been doing it for so long that it is virtually automatic so I do it with the tv on, currently but not for much longer "Drop The Dead Donkey". The real pain occurs occasionally when the Post alters their coding or, recently, those responsible for the generally excellent Firefox made a change to which it took a day or two to accommodate. Fortunately I have an equally long relationship with an expert who, so far, has got me through such problems.

 

[Dave]

Southwell All-Weather Analysis: The "AWTIM" Report​

Date: April 11, 2026

Welcome to today’s data-driven breakdown of the Southwell evening card. By synthesizing traditional speed figures with advanced RaceIQ metrics—including Stride Efficiency and Horse Performance Scores (HPS)—we’ve isolated the primary "Wall" selections for each race.

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16:45 – The Marathon Opener (12f)​

Selection 1: Wicksey (Prob: 27.5%)Wicksey enters as the class act on the clock with a field-leading Speed Rating of 77. In this small field, tactical positioning is everything. The data suggests a high "General" score, indicating the horse is well-suited to the demands of this 1.5-mile trip. With an OR+6 adjustment, the handicapper is starting to take notice, but the metrics suggest there is still room to maneuver.

Selection 2: Magnetude (Prob: 27.5%)Magnetude is the primary danger, boasting a tactical "Total Score" of 7. While the speed rating (74) is slightly behind the top selection, the draw-adjusted pace figures suggest a highly efficient journey. This is a horse that rarely wastes energy, making it a statistical constant for the "Wall."

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17:15 – Middle Distance Mastery (11f)​

Selection 1: Bint Al Daar (Prob: 37.8%)The strongest statistical play on the card. Bint Al Daar carries an Elite HPS of 13.7, significantly higher than the Class 5 average. Despite being a "Beaten Favourite" last time out, the PCR (Performance Comparison Rating) remains robust. The RaceIQ stride data shows 1.5 lengths of hidden merit in its last run, making this a prime candidate for a bounce-back.

Selection 2: Everyoneknowsadave (Prob: 33.5%)A fascinating contender under a trainer change. The tactical data shows a 50% win rate at the distance. While the HPS is standard, the "Pace Setup" score is high, suggesting the race will fall perfectly into its closing style.

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18:15 – The 5f Sprint Burnout​

Selection 1: Comic Strip (Prob: 31.0%)Sprinting at Southwell requires raw "Engine" power, and Comic Strip’s 67% win rate at the distance is no fluke. The horse sits 4lbs well-in according to the internal "Wall" weightings. A "Beaten Favourite" status here offers a value entry point into a horse that the clock says is still ahead of its mark.

Selection 2: Hayynah (Prob: 28.0%)Efficiency is the key here. Hayynah maintains a high stride frequency that is perfectly tuned for the Southwell surface. Combined with a "Hot Jockey" booking, the 28% probability reflects a horse that is trending upward in every physical metric.

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18:45 – Tactical 7f Challenge​

Selection 1: Timely Affair (Prob: 30.5%)This selection is built on "Late Stride Stability." While others may falter in the final furlong, Timely Affair’s metrics show a remarkably consistent SPS (Strides Per Second) frequency under pressure. It is a "Beaten Favourite" with a tactical setup that favors a stalking trip.

Selection 2: Ardaddy (Prob: 30.0%)Ardaddy benefits from the "Hot Jockey" factor and a Speed Rating that hasn't dipped in three starts. The tactical "Total Score" remains high, suggesting that even if the win isn't secured, the horse is a statistical lock to be in the frame.

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19:15 – The "Engine" Race (7f)​

Selection 1: Heretic (Prob: 32.7%)If you look at the RaceIQ HPS of 15.5, Heretic is essentially running in the wrong race. This score is typical of a Class 4 performer competing in Class 6. With a "Hot Jockey" and the highest PCR in the race, the data suggests this horse has a significant physical advantage over the field.

Selection 2: Captain Pickles (Prob: 32.5%)A model of consistency. With a 25% course win rate and a high tactical score, Captain Pickles represents the "High Quality" bracket of our metrics. The pace match is nearly perfect for a 7f specialist.

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19:45 – The 6f Stride Battle​

Selection 1: Early Release (Prob: 35.4%)Coming from a "Hot Trainer" yard, Early Release pairs a strong HPS (13.7) with an 8lb advantage in the OR+/- category. The RaceIQ metrics highlight a "Favourable" pace setup, meaning the horse is unlikely to be trapped wide or forced into an inefficient rhythm.

Selection 2: Farandaway (Prob: 35.0%)Farandaway is all about stride efficiency. In the "Elite" band for 6f sprinters, this horse covers more ground per stride than 90% of its rivals today. As a "Beaten Favourite," the probability remains high due to the sheer physical data supporting a return to form.

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20:15 – The Nightcap (6f)​

Selection 1: Fircombe Hall (Prob: 34.6%)A Southwell veteran with an HPS of 12.0. The "Hot Jockey" booking is the final piece of the puzzle for a horse that already ranks top for tactical positioning from the draw. The 34.6% probability is the result of a high "Engine" score combined with local track experience.

Selection 2: Piperstown (Prob: 33.5%)Piperstown rounds out the night with a "Hot Trainer" boost and a high late-stability rating. The PCR suggests the horse is currently at its physical peak, making it the ideal closer to round off the "Wall" selections.

Southwell "AWTIM" Selections: April 11, 2026​

Time	Selection	Horse	Prob %	Wall Insight & Smart Stats
16:45	Sel 1	Wicksey	27.5%	Top Speed Rating (77). Tactical advantage in a small field.
	Sel 2	Magnetude	27.5%	Positive form profile and draw-optimized for the 12f start.
17:15	Sel 1	Bint Al Daar	37.8%	RaceIQ Highlight: Elite HPS (13.7) and PCR. Beaten Favourite last time; high recovery potential.
	Sel 2	Everyoneknowsadave	33.5%	Trainer change alert. Beaten Favourite; tactical score suggests improved positioning.
18:15	Sel 1	Comic Strip	31.0%	Strong tactical score. Beaten Favourite seeking redemption on a suitable surface.
	Sel 2	Hayynah	28.0%	Smart Stat: Partnered with a Hot Jockey. Efficient stride profile for 5f.
18:45	Sel 1	Timely Affair	30.5%	High tactical versatility. Beaten Favourite with superior late-stride stability.
	Sel 2	Ardaddy	30.0%	Smart Stat: Hot Jockey booking. Strong speed-to-par figures for this class.
19:15	Sel 1	Heretic	32.7%	Elite Metrics: Peak HPS (15.5). Hot Jockey on board. The "Engine" rating is the highest in the race.
	Sel 2	Captain Pickles	32.5%	Beaten Favourite with a high PCR. Tactical data suggests a "Favoured" pace setup.
19:45	Sel 1	Early Release	35.4%	Smart Stat: Hot Trainer. RaceIQ HPS (13.7) indicates he is significantly ahead of the handicapper.
	Sel 2	Farandaway	35.0%	Beaten Favourite. Stride efficiency metrics are in the "Elite" band for 6f.
20:15	Sel 1	Fircombe Hall	34.6%	Smart Stat: Hot Jockey. Consistent HPS (12.0) and high tactical score (3) from the draw.
	Sel 2	Piperstown	33.5%

The last two days of testing since making some fundamental changes thanks to a reminder from @NUGGSY that my foundations had slipped. I know it's AI and it has a mind of its own and its a learning process. The results have been very promising so hopefully we are well and truly back on track or that was a couple of days of good fortune. i Have been dutching the two selections and I'm very happy with the performance especially as it identified a 12/1 winner.

 

[Chesham]

The Ultimate RaceIQ & Class Super Summary Chart​

Horse Name	LTO / R2 / R3 CCR	LTO / R2 / R3 TFR	LTO / R2 / R3 Tfig	PR%	0-20 mph	LTO FSP	Top Speed	Last 3 Timeform Comments (1=LTO, 2=Run 2, 3=Run 3)	Odds
Ambishio	84.5 / 31.0 / 72.0	84 / 31 / 72	65 / 40 / 70	58.4%	2.68s	98.27%	41.81 mph	1: Showed good attitude to get off mark, led. 2: Worked up, failed to see things out. 3: Failed to last out making nursery bow, no extra.	15/8
Comic Strip	88.1 / 85.0 / 80.0	88 / 85 / 80	41 / 68 / 79	62.5%	2.54s	101.34%	41.94 mph	1: Ran well in defeat, challenged 2f out, no extra. 2: Progressed further to follow up a shade cosily. 3: Caught the eye, fulfilled promise, driven out.	7/2
Saucy Jane	77.0 / 80.0 / 52.0	77 / 80 / 52	57 / 67 / 52	45.2%	2.80s	106.01%	41.14 mph	1: Unlucky not to finish closer, not clear run. 2: Matched best of 2yo form, effort flattened out. 3: Disappointed back in nursery, failed to settle.	9/2
Hayynah	77.0 / 70.0 / 65.0	77 / 70 / 65	51 / 41 / 38	54.1%	2.87s	103.78%	41.37 mph	1: Put experience to good use, got off the mark. 2: Flattered by standout 2nd, had run of things. 3: Below standout form, ridden when headed, no extra.	5/1
Proof	79.0 / 76.0 / 79.0	79 / 76 / 79	58 / 76 / 60	48.0%	2.77s	97.35%	36.73 mph	1: Solid effort, handles testing conditions well. 2: Showed effectiveness in mud, headed last ½f. 3: Improved to get off mark in much weaker nursery.	5/1
Riffa Spirit	68.0 / 68.0 / 43.0	68 / 68 / 43	62 / 59 / 50	18.5%	2.75s	102.32%	39.64 mph	1: Failed to improve, early keenness contributed to weak finish. 2: Relished drop to sprinting, always holding on. 3: Bred to make speedy 2yo, best forgiven run.	33/1
Ice Cold Alex	59.0 / 67.0 / 75.0	59 / 67 / 75	62 / 63 / 41	20.1%	2.41s	93.30%	43.20 mph	1: Has standout run from 3 efforts, never on terms. 2: Found out in deeper race, not sustain effort. 3: Looked on better opening mark, closed late.

 

[JennyK]

The 7.45 looks a decent race with several possibles. The one who interests me most is Sherlock. They seem still to be working out the horse's best trip and maybe 6f on a "speed" course will prove to be it. Quite an increase in class today and on balance I am not backing him, but with a halfway decent performance he'll certainly be joining my "to follow" list.

ps

Best run this year on my ratings but still below his best last year. If next time out he is dropped in class to the level of his race on 27/03/26 (average OR basis) he'll be of interest. Otherwise not one to add to my "to follow" list.

 

[Dave]

Newcastle All-Weather: Premium Analytical Dossier​

Date: April 13, 2026 | Track: Newcastle (Tapeta) | Protocol: v7.2 Tactical Engine (Locked)

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Section 1: Course Geometry & Physical Demands​

• Track Type: Galloping (GTC).
• Key Feature: The Newcastle straight mile is unique for its stiff, uphill finish over the final two furlongs.
• Demand: Pure "engine" size and stamina are prioritized over tactical agility. Short-stride sprinters often struggle in the final 100 yards, while long-stride grinders benefit from the testing finish.

Section 2: Draw Bias (Straight Course)​

• Trend: Analysis of recent 5f and 6f sprints shows a distinct Stands-Side (High Draw) advantage.
• Application: In races under 7f, horses drawn in the double digits (8, 9, 10+) receive a tactical upgrade.

Section 3: Pace Map (Early Burn)​

• Logic: Numerical Pace Score (Lower = Faster Early Speed).
• Shape: The 17:30 and 19:00 races show "Pace Meltdown" potential with multiple runners scoring under 1.50. This creates a high probability for a closer (Style 4) to sweep the field late.

Section 4: Run Style Bias​

• Sweet Spot: "Style 2" (Prominent) runners who can track the pace and use the uphill climb to wear down leaders are statistically the most successful at this track.

Section 5: Speed Ratings & Class Pars​

• Newcastle Class Floors: Class 3 (83), Class 4 (80), Class 5 (77), Class 6 (75).
• Power Gap: Paddy's Day (19:00) and Brian The Snail (20:30) are the only runners clearing their respective Pars by 5+ points.

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Sections 6, 7, 8 & 9: Detailed Race Diagnostics (The Internal Book)​

17:30 Newcastle (Class 6 - 10f)​

Horse	Draw/Pace	Vs. Par (Sec)	FSP%	TI Diff	Prob.
Sovereign Bright	(2) 1.14	-0.21s	101.4%	+0.4	41%
Pantile's Gift	(4) 1.40	+0.05s	99.2%	-0.2	23%
Meritocratic	(7) 2.00	+0.18s	100.1%	-0.5	12%

• Handicap: Weak race (Rule E); prioritization on current ability/fitness.
• C&D Stats: Sovereign Bright is unexposed at the trip but holds the highest consistency score.
• Smart Stat: Jason Hart (14% track SR) rides the Gold selection.

19:00 Newcastle (Class 3 - 6f)​

Horse	Draw/Pace	Vs. Par (Sec)	Stride	TI Diff	Prob.
Paddy's Day	(3) 3.10	-0.62s	7.45m	+1.8	48%
The Caltonian	(6) 1.20	-0.28s	7.12m	+0.9	24%
Secret Guest	(1) 2.40	-0.11s	7.05m	+0.3	11%

• Handicap: Paddy's Day is 1lb lower than his last win. Secret Guest is the "Value Sleeper" at -4.
• Diagnostic: The TI Diff of +1.8 for Paddy's Day identifies his last run as a "High-Velocity Heat" significantly faster than the meeting average.
• Smart Stat: High Pace Meltdown alert (multiple Pace < 1.50) favors Paddy's Day.

20:30 Newcastle (Class 5 - 5f)​

Horse	Draw/Pace	Vs. Par (Sec)	FSP%	TI Diff	Prob.
Brian The Snail	(10) 2.10	-0.48s	102.1%	+1.2	37%
Ganesha	(8) 1.45	-0.12s	98.4%	+0.5	20%
Herakles	(2) 1.32	+0.02s	97.9%	-0.1	15%

• Handicap: Brian The Snail is well-handicapped (-3 vs last win).
• Draw Bias: Gold and Silver are drawn 10 and 8 (High Draw Advantage).
• Smart Stat: A TI Diff of +1.2 reinforces the "Wall" selection's class superiority.

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Section 10: Final Bet Selections​

17:30 Newcastle
GOLD: Sovereign Bright (41%)
SILVER: Pantile's Gift
BRONZE: Meritocratic
19:00 Newcastle
GOLD: Paddy's Day (48%) - [PLATINUM NAP]
SILVER: The Caltonian
BRONZE: Secret Guest
20:30 Newcastle
GOLD: Brian The Snail (37%) - [THE WALL]
SILVER: Ganesha
BRONZE: Herakles

 

[Chesham]

Master Tactical Summary Chart: 7.00 Newcastle (Updated)​

Horse	Trainer	OR	Target Par RPR	Last RPR	True Class Level (L-RPR)	Well In Diff.	TFR (L3)	Tfig (L3)	CCR Formula	PR%
Toyotomi	D. O'Meara	95	101	94	Class 3	-7 lbs	94, 70, 91	88, 62, 74	Req	Req
Albasheer	A. Watson	95	101	94	Class 3	-7 lbs	94, 65, 104	95, 53, 87	Req	Req
The Caltonian	L. Perratt	93	99	61	< Class 6	-38 lbs	61, 101, 93	63, 97, 68	Req	Req
Wicket Keeper	A. Brittain	90	96	98	Class 2	+2 lbs	98, 99, 81	88, 95, 53	Req	Req
Paddys Day	N. Tinkler	89	95	94	Class 3	-1 lb	94, 87, 90	85, 84, 67	Req	Req
Evening Saigon	H. Al Jehani	89	95	95	Class 3	0 (Par)	---, 99, 94	---, 86, 88	Req	Req
Strike Red	R. & P. Fahey	86	93	68	Class 6	-25 lbs	68, 72, 78	68, 68, 69	Req	Req
Grant Wood	P. Midgley	84	91	84	Class 4	-7 lbs	84, 92, 83	83, 88, 79	Req	Req
William Dewhirst	B. Haslam	79	86	4	< Class 6	-82 lbs	4, 88, 86	14, 51, 60	Req	Req
Cajetan	R. Carr	77	84	51	< Class 6	-33 lbs	51, 76, 78	40, 53, 67	Req	Req

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The system is now perfectly aligned. Wicket Keeper (+2 lbs) is our class anomaly, Paddys Day is our Green tactical front-end play, and Evening Saigon acts as the unexposed baseline right on the Class 3 par.

 

[JennyK]

Why, I wonder, is Mr Tinkler running Paddys Day in this race, when so far in handicaps he has failed over more than 5f, but has a super record over 5f at Newcastle; since 0/01/23, seven wins and three places in thirteen runs? True, in win prize money terms this is a much less classy race than his last one, also 6f, but in class of opposition terms (average OR) this is actually slightly tougher than that race, where he led two furlongs out but weakened.

Taking his aw handicap runs as a whole, on my performance ratings Paddys Day is still progressing despite now being a 6yo. Maybe connections think he will be better over 6f than 5f as he ages, as some sprinters seem to. Or maybe, having failed to win any of the ten handicaps (all but one over 5f) when he ran off an OR above 88, connections want to see him drop a pound or two from his current mark of 89 before depending on collecting on him.

Were today's a 5f race, even though he is off 89 Paddys Day would be a significant bet for me, because of the progression shown in my performance ratings. And in that hypothetical situation I'd see the drop in trip and carrying 6lb less dead weight as positives. But given it is a 6f race, I'm inclined to let him run unbacked, and take a view about why connections ran him later.

 

[tacker]

Why, I wonder, is Mr Tinkler running Paddys Day in this race, when so far in handicaps he has failed over more than 5f, but has a super record over 5f at Newcastle; since 0/01/23, seven wins and three places in thirteen runs? True, in win prize money terms this is a much less classy race than his last one, also 6f, but in class of opposition terms (average OR) this is actually slightly tougher than that race, where he led two furlongs out but weakened.

Taking his aw handicap runs as a whole, on my performance ratings Paddys Day is still progressing despite now being a 6yo. Maybe connections think he will be better over 6f than 5f as he ages, as some sprinters seem to. Or maybe, having failed to win any of the ten handicaps (all but one over 5f) when he ran off an OR above 88, connections want to see him drop a pound or two from his current mark of 89 before depending on collecting on him.

Were today's a 5f race, even though he is off 89 Paddys Day would be a significant bet for me, because of the progression shown in my performance ratings. And in that hypothetical situation I'd see the drop in trip and carrying 6lb less dead weight as positives. But given it is a 6f race, I'm inclined to let him run unbacked, and take a view about why connections ran him later.

In his last dozen or so runs he's barely moved in the ratings JennyK , agree with your basic premise of 5f being his best dist, don't know what the tongue tis might achieve.
Personally i had a bit on ALBASHEER.

 

[JennyK]

ALBASHEER

On his 2024 levels of performance, he'd be a serious contender, but with only the one run, and that early, last year, difficult from his two this year to judge whether he is regressing and if so to what extent.

Best of luck, and of course to those favouring Paddys Day.

 

[JennyK]

Ran well, T tacker. Looks as though he retains a fair bit of ability.

I think I see Paddys Day's reason for being in the race the latter of my two suggestions.

ps

Having now calculated the rating for today's race, and taking Albashir's best ever winning handicap performance rating, on my rating method, as 100.0, his situation is:

26/08/23 (as 5yo) 97.0
15/03/24 (as 6yo) 100.0
01/01/25 (as 7yo) [94.3]
13/04/26 (as 8yo) [90.0]

I prefer working from winning performances but where not possible I use best non-winning runs, shown in [ ].

So, unsurprisingly, regressive but still as an 8yo able to run to 90% of his best ever, suggests he should be able to win a reasonable handicap this year.

 

[Chesham]

Evening Saigon

H. Al Jehani

89

95

95

Class 3

0 (Par)

---, 99, 94

---, 86, 88

 

[Chesham]

Here is the summary chart for Albasheer (IRE), breaking down his last 3 runs using your locked-in HRB Class Ceiling Rating (CCR) formula

Albasheer (IRE) - Ratings Summary Chart​

Date	Track & Trip	Official Rating (OR)	HRB Median OR	Lengths Beaten	HRB CCR Formula	PR% Formula
19.Mar.26	Newcastle (6f)	97	94	4.5L	89.5	50%
21.Feb.26	Chelmsford (5f)	100	85	10.5L	74.5	0%
1.Jan.25	Newcastle (6f)	104	91	2.5L	88.5	80%

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The Data Takeaway​

Putting his ratings into this sequence perfectly illustrates his current profile:

• The Class Wall: Even when he runs a highly credible race (like his 3rd at Newcastle in Jan 2025 where he achieved an 80% PR%), his absolute peak CCR hits 88.5 to 89.5.
• The Handicap Trap: Because the handicapper has kept his Official Rating stubbornly high (dropping him agonizingly slowly from 104 to 100 to 97, and now to 95 today), he is continually being asked to run to a class standard that his CCR proves he cannot reach.

He needs the handicapper to relent and drop his OR into the high 80s before he becomes a mathematically viable betting proposition.

Today he achieved CCR =88

The math tells the exact story of that final furlong duel. Evening Saigon is an improving 4-year-old who produced a true 90.0 CCR effort. Running off an Official Rating of 89 and carrying 9-3, he had the latent upward mobility to push just past the race's median ceiling.
The Data Takeaway


• The Heavy Ground Anomaly: The glaring 55.6 CCR from Doncaster is a classic ground-induced blowout. The form notes explicitly highlight the "Heavy" going, completely neutralizing his speed and causing him to drop away rapidly.


• The All-Weather / Good Ground Trajectory: Excluding that Heavy ground anomaly, his structural profile is highly progressive. He logged an 80% PR% at Newmarket, secured an 83.5 CCR on the Chelmsford Polytrack, and exploded to a peak 90.0 CCR on the Newcastle Tapeta today.


• The Ceiling Explosion: As a lightly raced 4-year-old having only his 5th career start today, he was perfectly primed to shatter his previous 83.5 ceiling. He successfully absorbed the 4lb rise in the handicap (OR 85 to 89) and bypassed the median marker entirely. This is the exact mechanical footprint of an unexposed, progressive young sprinter finding his true class level.




Meanwhile, Albasheer maxed out his physical limit at an 88.0 CCR. That exact 2.0-point differential in their underlying structural ceilings is precisely what translated to the 1-length victory at the line. The progressive younger horse had the headroom to hit 90.0, while the exposed older horse hit his permanent wall at 88.0.
The RaceIQ metrics provide the exact physical blueprint of why the mathematical class ceiling played out the way it did. This data beautifully illustrates what it actually looks like when a horse is anchored by the handicapper's weight.

Here is the mechanical breakdown of that final furlong duel:

RaceIQ Head-to-Head: The 6lb Weight Difference in Action​

Metric	1st: Evening Saigon (Carrying 9-3)	2nd: Albasheer (Carrying 9-9)
0-20mph (Break)	2.79s (4th)	2.81s (5th)
Top Speed	41.52mph (2nd)	41.42mph (5th)
Finishing Speed %	102.36% (5th)	102.23% (6th)
Avg Stride Length	7.52m (8th)	7.39m (9th)
Avg Stride Frequency	2.42sps (2nd)	2.45sps (1st)

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The Mechanical Verdict​

1. The "Spinning Wheels" Effect (Frequency vs. Length): This is the most revealing part of the data. Albasheerrecorded the 1st ranked Average Stride Frequency (2.45 steps per second) and the 1st ranked Maximum Frequency (2.56 sps). His legs were moving faster than any other horse in the race.

However, because he was carrying 9-9 (giving 6 lbs to the winner), that rapid leg turnover did not translate into ground covered. His Average Stride Length was only 7.39m (ranked 9th). The extra weight physically prevented him from extending his stride.

Evening Saigon, carrying only 9-3, was able to maintain a slightly more relaxed stride frequency (2.42 sps) but extended his stride significantly further to 7.52m. He was simply more efficient because he was carrying less lead.

2. The Top Speed Ceiling: Albasheer ran a phenomenally brave race, pushing his engine to the absolute limit. But his Top Speed peaked at 41.42mph. Evening Saigon, with the lighter weight and unexposed 4-year-old profile, was able to find that extra gear, hitting 41.52mph.

3. The Final Furlong Duel: Look at the Finishing Speed Percentages: 102.36% for the winner, 102.23% for Albasheer. They paced the end of the race almost identically. Neither horse stopped, and neither horse shirked the issue. They ran side-by-side to the line, giving maximum effort.

The Conclusion: The RaceIQ data perfectly validates the 88.0 CCR class ceiling we calculated earlier. Albasheer did absolutely nothing wrong; he ran as fast as his legs could physically move (1st in stride frequency). But the physics of carrying 9-9 against a progressive 4-year-old carrying 9-3 meant his stride was shortened, his top speed was capped, and he was beaten by exactly 1.0 length.

The handicapper beat him, not the opposition. This is a masterclass in how structural math and physical race data align perfectly.

 

[Dave]

AW MODELS: SOUTHWELL (AW) OFFICIAL DOSSIER
Date: April 15, 2026 | Surface: Tapeta | Protocol: v7.4 Tactical Engine (Locked)

1. SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE & TRACK BIAS​

• Track Type: Left-handed, Galloping. The 4f straight is a "Long-Stride" environment.
• Vs. Par Constraints: Sprint (<7f): -1.0s limit | Staying (>10f): -2.5s limit.
• Surface Constraint: Tapeta. High-efficiency long-striding profiles are upgraded.

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2. DETAILED RACE DIAGNOSTICS​

17:57 — Class 6 Handicap (5f)​

• Class Par: 72 | Vs. Par Constraint:-1.0s
  • RaceIQ Attribute: Efficiency Band: "High." Normalised Vs.Par -0.32 suggests he is operating above the class baseline.
  • Pace Map: S2 (Prominent). Positioned to strike from the 4f mark.
  • Handicap Status: Mark of 58 is +4 above last win, but speed ratings (83) suggest he is still ahead of this field.

18:30 — Class 5 Handicap (1m 6f)​

• Class Par: 77 | Vs. Par Constraint:-2.5s
  • RaceIQ Attribute: Stride Efficiency: "Ultra-Stable." Ideal for the 14f test.
  • Pace Map: S3 (Mid-Division). Requires a clear run to utilize long stride.

19:30 — Class 6 Handicap (7f)​

• Class Par: 72 | Vs. Par Benchmark:-1.5s
  • C&D History: Highest win rate in the field for Course & Distance (40%).
  • Pace Map: S1 (Front Runner). Likely to dictate terms from the front.

20:30 — Class 4 Fillies' Handicap (6f)​

• Class Par: 80 | Vs. Par Benchmark:-1.0s
  • RaceIQ Attribute: "True Test" Profile. High RSI (102.5). Stride length (7.2m) is elite for Class 4 Tapeta.
  • Handicap Status: Mark of 79 is identical to last win OR. Physical peak suggests 5lb of headroom.

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3. FINAL BET SELECTIONS​

Race	Horse	Rationale	Prob %	Signal
17:57	Fortunate Star	WALL DOMINANT.Master 83 (+11 vs Par).	41%	STAKE
18:30	Mio Amico	Stride Efficiency "Stable" for 14f trip.	42%	VALUE
19:30	Dancing With Drums	C&D SNIPER. 40% strike rate at track.	35%	STAKE
20:00	Cool Molly	FORM LOCK. Score 17. Peak physical cycle.	44%	STAKE
20:30	Powdering	PLATINUM. Elite RSI (102.5) & Master 85.	46%	MAX STAKE

Good luck, and please let me have any constructive comments on how you feel things could be improved.

 

[JennyK]

Dave

More a question than a comment. How is progression/regression factored into your analyses?

In general horses' ability declines over time. If we take Powdering as an example, she is a 6yo taking on seven 3yos and 4yos. it is very likely that some if not all of these younger horses will prove to be progressive, while 6yos can be, but can also "plateau" or be regressive.

Powdering, as you note, last won off 79 (03/09/25), which on my ratings was very close to her best winning performance. In the 8.30 she runs off 79 again, though in my view in a tougher race (the average OR of the 03/09/25 field was 73.6, today's is 76.9). Thus to win today, on my ratings she will have to achieve her best ever winning performance. The improvement she needs to show is modest, and entirely realistic, IF she is progressive.

This early in the year there isn't much data, but the evidence of her aw performances suggests the possibility she is regressing. Taking the average of her eight aw handicap runs in 2025 as 100.0, on my performance ratings the average of her four so far this year is 91.3. That is a long way from conclusive; her first four runs last year were on average poorer than her last four, and that could well be repeated this year, but it raises a doubt in my mind. That said, there is encouragement to be had from her run on 27/02/26; were she to run as well today she'd win/go very close.

Your comment on Powdering, that "physical peak suggests 5lb headroom", indicates that you expect she will be able to progress. My question is on what are you basing that view - is it implied in the RSI figure?

 

[Dave]

This is something new that I’m working on using my RaceIQ data.

Bomb Squad ran last night and won @ 3/1.
As we have seen many times on here. We do well until we post then it suddenly turns into Rat shit. Hopefully, not this time. I firmly believe in the RaceIQ data so I think it’s worth pursuing.


Horses to Follow — April 2026 All-Weather Analysis

Using RaceIQ sectional data, we've identified 36 horses that ran in fast races this month but didn't win. These are the ones worth tracking next time out.

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How we identify them

Every horse on this list ran in a race where the time was genuinely fast, negative versus par, meaning the form should work out. Each horse finished 2nd or 3rd, within 3 lengths of the winner, and was rated highly by our scoring model which combines Finishing Speed Percentage, Top Speed, early pace and stride efficiency. These aren't horses that got beaten by a fluke. They ran well in good races and deserve another chance.

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High Priority — Watch Immediately

These are the standout cases. Elite or Strong race class, model top-rated, and several at generous prices.

Arth's Gold (Trainer: R Hannon)Finished 2nd at Southwell on April 5th, beaten half a length at 9.5/1. The race was exceptional — Vs.Par of -4.14 seconds, the fastest race we recorded all month. FSP of 106% tells you he was finishing strongly. At that price in that quality of race, he warrants serious interest next time out.

Clansman (Trainer: L Bailey)Third at Southwell on April 7th in another Elite race (Vs.Par -3.44s), beaten a head at 5/1. Our model rated him the top horse in the race. FSP of 108.69% — he was flying at the finish. This is exactly the type of performance that should translate next time.

Shrimp Shady (Trainer: A M Balding, Jockey: Rob Hornby)Second at Lingfield on April 3rd, beaten 2¼ lengths at 3.75/1. The race ran -2.31s versus par and Shrimp Shady posted the highest FSP of any horse on this list at 113.37%. That finishing speed figure is extraordinary. Trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Rob Hornby — connections that know what they're doing.

Patrol (IRE) (Trainer: Dylan Cunha)Second at Newcastle on April 20th at 3.25/1 in a race that ran -4.13s versus par — the second fastest race of the month. Beaten 2¾ lengths but this is a horse that handled an exceptionally fast race well.

Incensed (Trainer: Mrs A J Perrett)Second at Kempton on April 6th, beaten 1 length at the remarkable price of 1/1 favourite. Elite race class (Vs.Par -2.16s), FSP of 110.1% and our model's top-rated horse. Was beaten on the day but the figures say he's better than the result suggests. Worth noting Mrs Perrett is a trainer who places her horses carefully.

Charlie Darling (FR) (Trainer: A D Brown)This is the outsider play of the list. Third at Southwell on April 2nd at 67/1 in an Elite race (Vs.Par -3.41s). An FSP of 107.65% at that price is remarkable — the market had no idea. Connections will know what happened here and when he runs again, the price could still be generous enough to take a chance.

Party Island (IRE) (Trainer: D J Coakley)Third at Lingfield on April 3rd at 11/1. Strong race class, FSP of 108.38%, model top-rated. The generous odds and strong sectionals make this one worth following.

The Green Man (IRE) (Trainer: P A Kirby)Second at Newcastle on April 20th at 17/1 in an Elite race (Vs.Par -2.46s). Only half a length behind. At that price in that quality of race he's firmly on the radar.

King's School (Trainer: G Tutty)Third at Newcastle on April 20th at 23/1 — same race as The Green Man above. Elite race class, beaten a neck for second. Two generous-priced horses from the same Elite race both on the watchlist. The form from this race deserves respect.

Cloch Nua (Trainer: T Culhane & S Barclay)Third at Newcastle on April 20th at 12/1, beaten half a length. Elite race (Vs.Par -2.37s), model top-rated. Another Newcastle horse from what was clearly a strong evening's racing.

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Medium Priority — Keep an Eye On

Solid form in good races. Worth noting when declared.

Analogical (Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott) — 2nd Southwell, April 7th, Elite race, beaten a nose at 2.38/1. Sir Mark rarely runs a horse without purpose.

Serenity Blue (Trainer: James Horton) — 3rd Kempton, April 6th, Elite race, beaten a head at 5.5/1. FSP 108.51%.

Strike Red (IRE) (Trainer: R A Fahey) — 3rd Newcastle, April 13th, Strong race, beaten a short head at 6.5/1. Top speed of 41.33mph. Fahey is a trainer worth following on the all-weather.

A Mere Bagatelle (IRE) (Trainer: James Owen) — 2nd Southwell, April 2nd, Elite race, 10/1. Two miles in an Elite race with an FSP of 106.89% — a stayer worth noting.

Artagnan (IRE) (Trainer: H Al Jehani, Jockey: James Doyle) — 2nd Wolverhampton, April 9th, 3/1. James Doyle doesn't ride for fun — Strong race class and model top-rated.

Reginald Charles (Trainer: G R Oldroyd) — 3rd Southwell, April 7th, beaten a neck at 4.5/1. Strong race class, model top-rated, FSP 105%.

Book Of Life (Trainer: P Morris) — 3rd Newcastle, April 13th, Elite race at 6.5/1.

Berkshire Phantom (IRE) (Trainer: Fionn McSharry) — 2nd Newcastle, April 13th, beaten a neck at 8.5/1. Elite race, very close to a placing.

Goldwork (Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton) — 3rd Kempton, April 8th, beaten a short head at 6/1. High top speed (41.03mph), FSP 105.45%.

Nana's Boy George (IRE) (Trainer: Alexandra Dunn) — 2nd Newcastle, April 20th, beaten a nose at 4.5/1. Highest top speed on the list at 43.9mph over 5 furlongs.

Alvin (IRE) (Trainer: George Scott) — 3rd Lingfield, April 3rd, beaten a nose at 8.5/1. Good race class, top speed 42.08mph.

Herakles (IRE) (Trainer: P T Midgley) — 2nd Newcastle, April 13th at 5.5/1. Good race class over 5 furlongs, FSP 104.58%.

Brian The Snail (IRE) (Trainer: P Morris) — 3rd Newcastle, April 13th at 9.5/1. Same race as Herakles, beaten three-quarters of a length.

Daytona Lady (IRE) (Trainer: Mrs R Carr) — 3rd Southwell, April 5th at 26/1. Already won next time out at Wolverhampton (April 21st) — the form worked immediately.

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Monitor — Worth Noting

These ran in decent races and showed enough to keep on a list. Less urgent than the above but worth a line in your notebook.

Wonder (Trainer: J R Fanshawe) — 2nd Lingfield, Strong race, 5.5/1Dyrholaey (FR) (Trainer: A Watson) — 3rd Wolverhampton, Strong race, 1/1Bomb Squad (IRE)(Trainer: J Mackie) — 2nd Southwell, Strong race, 6/1Hallo Spaceboy (Trainer: E Walker) — 2nd Kempton, 4.5/1, FSP 105.71%Taaklam (IRE) (Trainer: H Bethell) — 3rd Newcastle, Strong race, 5/1Victors Spirit (SAF) (Trainer: N B King) — 2nd Lingfield, 7.5/1, FSP 108.4%Lord Harcourt (Trainer: E Walker) — 2nd Lingfield, beaten a neck at 3.25/1

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All selections identified using RaceIQ sectional data. Horses qualified by finishing 2nd or 3rd in a race running faster than par (negative Vs.Par), within 3 lengths of the winner, with a composite performance score of 44 or above.

This is for informational purposes only. Please bet responsibly.